Patrick Kane ceiling all-time?

[Toby91ca]

Let's compare Kane to Joe Sakic:

• Both had one huge season where they decisively won the Hart (2001 and 2016)
• Both had four other seasons where they placed in the top ten, but outside of the top five, in Hart voting (though Kane is on track to be a Hart contender this year)
• Sakic was in the top ten in scoring ten times; Kane has done that six times so far - on pace for a 7th time this year
• Kane has an Art Ross, which Sakic doesn't have - but Sakic has more years in the top five
• Through age 32, Sakic is nearly 200 points ahead. But he started his career in a higher-scoring era and missed fewer games (due to lockout / COVID). Based on hockey-reference.com's adjusted stats (which are flawed, but usable for a high-level comparison), they're virtually equal through age 32.
• Both players were key pieces of multiple Stanley Cup winners.
• Both players have a Conn Smythe (but I think there's little doubt that Sakic had the better peak playoff run, and a better playoff resume overall - averaging more points per game over more games. He also has an Olympics MVP).
• Both have scored a lot of playoff OT goals (but Sakic has the all-time record).

The comparison is closer than I initially thought. Even though Kane is tracking well through age 32, my guess is it will be difficult for him to top Sakic. First, Sakic already became a very good two-way player by age 32; Kane has usually been indifferent defensively. Second, Sakic remained very productive past age 33 (he scored more than a point per game and added three more top-ten scoring finishes). I'm not saying that Kane can't do that, but I wouldn't bet on it today.

Sakic is somewhere around 30th all-time. I think it's unlikely, but not impossible, for Kane to surpass him - so that's likely his ceiling. (That's not to say that he'll end up 31st either - to match Sakic's resume, I'm counting on him remaining productive for at least four or five more years, and even if their offensive resumes are even, Sakic is still ahead in terms of playoffs and two-way play - the later being a sizable gap).

I know this is from a few years ago, but just seeing now do to replies, but just on some of the points above:

• In terms of Hart voting, Sakic had 5 other seasons in top 10 outside of his win, not 4
• Agree offense is fairly close, but Sakic's per game output is greater (15% increase) than the overall game per game averages during the period he played vs. Kane (only 6% increase). So....Sakic was better offensively over his career and was even more clearly better defensively.

This is actually a fairly clear assessment for me in favour of Sakic. If they were so equal I'd defer to Sakic as well do to being captain (not a huge differentiator, but I do think it matters) and being a centre vs. wing.

The other thing I saw in the discussion...probably first page was suggestion that Kane should be Hart finalist for that year......reality is he didn't come all that close....he was 15th in voting.

 

[Toby91ca]

He has 27 right now and since the coaching change he and the wings have been on fire but that's going to cool down. he has 13 points in his last 7 games just to get to 27 points on the season.

He might hit 50 but he ain't hitting 60.

Anyone having him on their fantasy roster sell high.

Yeah....he's not even pacing for 60pts right now, so the earlier suggestion that he should be able to get there easily is quite generous, but I wouldn't suggest he won't get there as a matter of fact. If someone forced me to bet though....I'd agree and suggest he won't get to 60.

Some of the career totals being suggested a few years ago seem to be overly optimistic as well.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Yeah....he's not even pacing for 60pts right now, so the earlier suggestion that he should be able to get there easily is quite generous, but I wouldn't suggest he won't get there as a matter of fact. If someone forced me to bet though....I'd agree and suggest he won't get to 60.

Some of the career totals being suggested a few years ago seem to be overly optimistic as well.

It’s very fair to say if you don’t watch Detroit, but it’s like a flip has been switched. He’s WAY better the last 8 games than he was all of last year too. You can look at my post history - I’ve hated on Kane many times in the Wings board and disliked the signing. But he’s playing like he’s in his prime right now.

 

[Edgelord]

no, he is hockey player most time

 

[Toby91ca]

It’s very fair to say if you don’t watch Detroit, but it’s like a flip has been switched. He’s WAY better the last 8 games than he was all of last year too. You can look at my post history - I’ve hated on Kane many times in the Wings board and disliked the signing. But he’s playing like he’s in his prime right now.

I watch plently of Detroit. I wasn't meaning to knock him.....just suggesting I wouldn't suggest someone should easily be able to hit a certain point total when they are not even on pace to get there. I'm usually risk adverse, so err on the side of caution. If someone is pacing for 120pts, I'd suggest they shouldn't have any trouble getting to 100 (assuming we are 40-50 games in of course....not 10 games in). Anyone can go on a short heater and look really, really good....but how long can it last? The older and slow you get, the lest likely it is that you can keep it going. It's not like he's pacing for 36 pts, so absurd to think he would get 60, I get that. I'm just being realistic, he's pacing around 55-56pts, so can he get 60? Sure, he's playing better more recently, so perhaps he'll keep that up. BUT, what also is possible is his play will slow down, perhaps he'll miss some games, etc.

 

[Zirakzigil]

We dont need to dredge up years old threads. Create a new one if its thread worthy.