Value of: Panarin

[ThatSaid]

What are you talking about in the first 3 paragraphs? If you are talking about early retirement, the recapture penalties are pretty clear, but I didn't talk about any of that. That's why Hossa is kind of untradeable from the Hawks POV.

For the last paragraph, that's the point. Every other LTIR case with a big cap hit, had the player with a legitimate career ending injury. The Hawks can't just casually place Hossa on LTIR if they want to. He will need a legitimate injury IMO, other-wise, either other teams or the PA would fight it. Maybe it's a loophole that can be exploited, but if that's the case, it would likely lead to a significant fight in the new CBA.

My point is, any injury Hossa says he has will be considered legitimate. Not that he will retire and a recapture penalty won't be assessed. I'd bet a hell of a lot of money on it too.

I was simply giving context. The league knows how asinine it would be to assess those recapture penalties, so they aren't going to look very hard.

 

[bleedblue1223]

My point is, any injury Hossa says he has will be considered legitimate. Not that he will retire and a recapture penalty won't be assessed. I'd bet a hell of a lot of money on it too.

I was simply giving context. The league knows how asinine it would be to assess those recapture penalties, so they aren't going to look very hard.

So you are saying the league won't apply a penalty to the Hawks that they've applied to other because they are the Hawks? Do you see how dumb that statement is?

As for the injury, it would take the team physician to declare him unfit to play for the LTIR requirements. What happens if Hossa wants to play? The PA will fight that. Would the team physician risk his name and credentials for that potential risk? It's unchartered territory.

 

[ThatSaid]

Huh? There have already been two retroactive recapture penalties assessed--Kovalchuk and Richards.

The entire point of the recapture rule was to apply it retroactively.

Both of those scenarios were pretty different. I think most fans (and maybe the league at this point) think the Kovalchuk penalty was ridiculous. The whole Richards situation was an attempt by the Kings to nullify the contract of a player who still wanted to play. It was a clear attempt to push him out of the game.

Ask any NJ fan how they feel about the IK situation. That's not what the NHL wants to do to their fanbases.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Both of those scenarios were pretty different. I think most fans (and maybe the league at this point) think the Kovalchuk penalty was ridiculous. The whole Richards situation was an attempt by the Kings to nullify the contract of a player who still wanted to play. It was a clear attempt to push him out of the game.

Ask any NJ fan how they feel about the IK situation. That's not what the NHL wants to do to their fanbases.

And they are still fans, and paying their money. The NHL does not serve the fans, and with everything they've done in the past 10-15 years, every fan should understand that.

If Hossa wants to play, and the Hawks try to push him on LTIR, then that is the issue right there. You can't assume that Hossa would want to go to LTIR.

 

[ThatSaid]

So you are saying the league won't apply a penalty to the Hawks that they've applied to other because they are the Hawks? Do you see how dumb that statement is?

As for the injury, it would take the team physician to declare him unfit to play for the LTIR requirements. What happens if Hossa wants to play? The PA will fight that. Would the team physician risk his name and credentials for that potential risk? It's unchartered territory.

If Hossa wants to play, he plays. If we tried to LTIR him when he wasn't ready for retirement, which by the way, would never happen, I would fully expect the NHLPA to step in. If Hossa decides that he doesn't want to play, it won't be hard for a career NHL player to find a medical excuse.

If you really think the NHL is going to intervene in any of these front-loaded contracts in a scenario where the player is ready to retire, I don't know what to say. Maybe you're right, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Look, I think we're pretty much on the same page. Hossa is one of my favorite Hawks, and has been since we signed him. If he wants to play the entirety of his contract, I'm fine with that. He's been a key piece on the most successful sports franchise I root for. Even if we never see another Cup with Toews and Kane, I'm a happy fan, and will be for about 20 years. I'll probably cry when he retires. This year, he makes 4 million for playing. After that, its 1 million per and he'll be 38. I'd love to see him play as long as Yagr. But if he decides its not worth playing another year, because its too hard on his family life/body, that's his decision. Its kind of a ****** situation put on him by the league. You really think the NHLPA is gonna pitch a stink if he decides to LTIR instead of imposing an extremely encumbering penalty to a team he won three cups on? I highly doubt it.

 

[bleedblue1223]

If Hossa wants to play, he plays. If we tried to LTIR him when he wasn't ready for retirement, which by the way, would never happen, I would fully expect the NHLPA to step in. If Hossa decides that he doesn't want to play, it won't be hard for a career NHL player to find a medical excuse.

If you really think the NHL is going to intervene in any of these front-loaded contracts in a scenario where the player is ready to retire, I don't know what to say. Maybe you're right, but I wouldn't bet on it.

You keep jumping to conclusions and avoiding the black and white rules in the CBA. LTIR is only eligible for team physicians that say they are unfit to play hockey for 24 day or 10 games. That is a dangerous road for a doctor. If they try and use a pre-existing injury with no signs of it getting worse, then there will be a CBA fight.

If Hossa retires, the penalty is black and white. If Hossa wants to play, then it's cap trouble. It's pretty black and white situation, with some grey area with what the physician would decide on his health.

 

[mouser]

BTW, it doesn't require the NHLPA to get involved. The NHL can investigate any LTIR decisions on its own, and impose circumvention penalties if merited.

 

[ThatSaid]

You keep jumping to conclusions and avoiding the black and white rules in the CBA. LTIR is only eligible for team physicians that say they are unfit to play hockey for 24 day or 10 games. That is a dangerous road for a doctor. If they try and use a pre-existing injury with no signs of it getting worse, then there will be a CBA fight.

If Hossa retires, the penalty is black and white. If Hossa wants to play, then it's cap trouble. It's pretty black and white situation, with some grey area with what the physician would decide on his health.

I'm not a doctor, but I was in the military. There are plenty of athletic injuries that can't be diagnosed by a doctor. You can have debilitating lower-back pain that doesn't show up on x-rays. If you separate a shoulder, you can have lingering pain that doesn't manifest through tests. Any veteran with no conscience can easily get 20% disability by just periodically claiming lower-back injuries.

Obviously, as I have stated, if he retired, it IS black and white. But he won't retire. He'll go on LTIR, as will Weber, as will all other NHL players with front-loaded contracts that don't feel like playing anymore.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Look, I think we're pretty much on the same page. Hossa is one of my favorite Hawks, and has been since we signed him. If he wants to play the entirety of his contract, I'm fine with that. He's been a key piece on the most successful sports franchise I root for. Even if we never see another Cup with Toews and Kane, I'm a happy fan, and will be for about 20 years. I'll probably cry when he retires. This year, he makes 4 million for playing. After that, its 1 million per and he'll be 38. I'd love to see him play as long as Yagr. But if he decides its not worth playing another year, because its too hard on his family life/body, that's his decision. Its kind of a ****** situation put on him by the league. You really think the NHLPA is gonna pitch a stink if he decides to LTIR instead of imposing an extremely encumbering penalty to a team he won three cups on? I highly doubt it.

Fair enough. I don't think the league is going to ignore their rules if Hossa retires just to play nice to the Hawks. The rules are what they are. If that does happen, it would be the 29 other teams yelling and screaming. The conspiracy theories of the NHL or refs favoring certain teams are just that, conspiracy theories, but if the NHL ignores black and white rules, without a legitimate claim to LTIR, then that affects the competitive balance of the league.

 

[ThatSaid]

BTW, it doesn't require the NHLPA to get involved. The NHL can investigate any LTIR decisions on its own, and impose circumvention penalties if merited.

This is very true. Maybe you guys are all totally right, and I'm totally wrong. But I doubt it.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Back injuries are nearly impossible to disprove, and the league isn't about to force somebody claiming they're hurt to play hockey from a legal standpoint. Hossa will play until he decides it isn't worth it, and I'd be very surprised if there's a recapture penalty.

 

[TLEH]

If panarin asks for 7.5 mil. I am fine with moving him for a kings ransom. We can't have 35% of the cap through 3 guys and you gotta fill out a team. His numbers dropped major away from Kane and Kane's only drop a little Away from panarin, so this year, you play panarin on his own line because there is no feasible way the Hawks can pay him 7.5 mil and not be able to carry his own line

 

[JustABlackhawksFan]

I think they'll be able to keep Panarin. Hopefully I'm not being naive.

But I feel like a lot of the recent moves Stan Bowman has made point to Panarin being in the Hawks' long-term plans. If they didn't anticipate they would be able to keep Panarin around, then why did they trade away Teravainen? They would probably need a player like Teuvo, who is a very very poor man's Panarin, if they weren't gonna be able to keep Panarin. Yes, TT was a sweetener to get rid of Bickell, but if they were that desperate to get rid of Bickell for next season, they might as well have just bought him out if they didn't see Panarin on the team past next year -- that way they could have kept TT too.

And Shaw, for that matter. Shaw is a huge fan favorite and also a huge favorite in the locker room and of the coaching staff. They probably COULD have re-signed him if they knew they weren't gonna be able to keep Panarin. But because they know they need room for Panarin after next season, they traded Shaw now.

All of these recent cap-clearing moves point to making room to pay Panarin.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Agree with the above post. The moves to clear out cap, not buyout Bickell and resign Shaw are probably with intention of keeping Panarin long term. Him and Kane are that next great duo imo.

 

[halcyon]

If panarin asks for 7.5 mil. I am fine with moving him for a kings ransom. We can't have 35% of the cap through 3 guys and you gotta fill out a team. His numbers dropped major away from Kane and Kane's only drop a little Away from panarin, so this year, you play panarin on his own line because there is no feasible way the Hawks can pay him 7.5 mil and not be able to carry his own line

Yet the Hawks pay Toews 10.5 million, and Toews has shown that without all-star caliber wingers he can't carry his own line.

Panarin's "major drop" away from Kane is based on an incredibly tiny sample size. He barely ever played away from Kane. He started to more in the postseason, and scored 5 of his 7 playoffs points without Kane factoring in to them, for what that is worth.

Panarin and Kane are really really effective together, which is why they were played together so much. That shouldn't be held against Panarin as an inability to carry his own line. He simply hasn't played enough away from Kane to reach that conclusion at this point.

And you think Kane's numbers only drop a little away from Panarin? I'd say they would drop a lot, considering Kane outscored his career best in points by 18, and his career best in goals by 16, after playing with Panarin all year. The fact of the matter is they both made each other great. It wasn't just Kane carrying Panarin along for the ride.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Why would they?

Dump Kruger and Anisimov.

Because that's not what I asked for in my OP. Thread was derailed after the 2nd post Thanks pal

 

[goldenbladz1]

Yet the Hawks pay Toews 10.5 million, and Toews has shown that without all-star caliber wingers he can't carry his own line.

Panarin's "major drop" away from Kane is based on an incredibly tiny sample size. He barely ever played away from Kane. He started to more in the postseason, and scored 5 of his 7 playoffs points without Kane factoring in to them, for what that is worth.

Panarin and Kane are really really effective together, which is why they were played together so much. That shouldn't be held against Panarin as an inability to carry his own line. He simply hasn't played enough away from Kane to reach that conclusion at this point.

And you think Kane's numbers only drop a little away from Panarin? I'd say they would drop a lot, considering Kane outscored his career best in points by 18, and his career best in goals by 16, after playing with Panarin all year. The fact of the matter is they both made each other great. It wasn't just Kane carrying Panarin along for the ride.

you are wrong there! Toews does definitely carry his own line but has more responsibility than just scoring points. Since when is that the only criteria for carrying your line. BTW Toews had an off year and still had 28 goals and would have had more points if Hossa could bury ANYTHING. Hossa's play really detoriated offensively (not defensiely) and misses many easy goals. I expect both to have bounce back years

 

[GaryU]

Yet the Hawks pay Toews 10.5 million, and Toews has shown that without all-star caliber wingers he can't carry his own line.

Panarin's "major drop" away from Kane is based on an incredibly tiny sample size. He barely ever played away from Kane. He started to more in the postseason, and scored 5 of his 7 playoffs points without Kane factoring in to them, for what that is worth.

Panarin and Kane are really really effective together, which is why they were played together so much. That shouldn't be held against Panarin as an inability to carry his own line. He simply hasn't played enough away from Kane to reach that conclusion at this point.

And you think Kane's numbers only drop a little away from Panarin? I'd say they would drop a lot, considering Kane outscored his career best in points by 18, and his career best in goals by 16, after playing with Panarin all year. The fact of the matter is they both made each other great. It wasn't just Kane carrying Panarin along for the ride.

Give Toews one of Kane/Panarin and look at his numbers, hypothetically.

 

[Bfreezy40]

I think there are teams out there that would take Anisimov...but damn what does that leave the Hawks with?

Give Derek Roy a call!

 

[FlipFlopPavelski]

Panera Boy is coming back, no idea why they wouldnt resign him. IF they cant then dump a scrub on the team like Jordon TooToo or TVR

 

[FrolikFan67]

if he breaks 30g and 70pt let alone 75pts again, and is asking for 7-7.5per longterm, even if they could force him into a short term deal for the time being, but if they wanted a longer term player but at less money would a Huberdeau+ deal work? maybe like huberdeau + petrovic? or something along those lines? he'd be a good fit with either toews or kane, he'll max out at 6per but would probably be closer to 5.5 or 5.75 i think, beats 7.5, gives a longer term solution over a 2 or 3yr deal and makes things clearer moving forward. i know they'd be taking a step back a little so i would include a reasonable + to the deal, but is that something chicago would possibly be ok with, or would think about if thats how the situation ends up going? assuming that even moving out some other pieces they could keep him around for the next couple years, but signing him at a big contract longterm ultimately not being feasible for them.

 

[topnotch]

if he breaks 30g and 70pt let alone 75pts again, and is asking for 7-7.5per longterm, even if they could force him into a short term deal for the time being, but if they wanted a longer term player but at less money would a Huberdeau+ deal work? maybe like huberdeau + petrovic? or something along those lines? he'd be a good fit with either toews or kane, he'll max out at 6per but would probably be closer to 5.5 or 5.75 i think, beats 7.5, gives a longer term solution over a 2 or 3yr deal and makes things clearer moving forward. i know they'd be taking a step back a little so i would include a reasonable + to the deal, but is that something chicago would possibly be ok with, or would think about if thats how the situation ends up going? assuming that even moving out some other pieces they could keep him around for the next couple years, but signing him at a big contract longterm ultimately not being feasible for them.

If Panarin has another 70+ point season he may get 7-7.5 million on a long term contract.

But offering Huberdeau and Petrovic doesn't do it, and here's why. Huberdeau is coming off his second contract of 3.25 mil, he'll be looking for a long term contract probably around 6 million (if he has another season like the last one). Petrovic is also coming off his 2nd contract and will be looking for a significant raise as well, maybe 2-3 million.

In the end Huberdeau and Petrovic will possibly cost more than Panarin and as good as Huberdeau is, he's a significant downgrade from Panarin, given that Panarin has another 70+ point season.

If the Hawks are forced to trade Panarin they'll be looking for good NHL players cheaper than what Panarin will cost.

 

[Pestilence]

How many RFA years does Panarin have after next season? Forsberg got 6 x 6, but he'll be 27 years old when it runs out.

 

[topnotch]

Panarin is eligible for UFA status on July 1st 2019, so he still has 2 more RFA years left.

 

[WrinkledPossum]

First off, lol the Hawks could be very screwed soon. (And yes I am jealous of their cups)


I think Panarin could fetch a 1st, a top prospect and another asset. Would definitely get a big return for him.