Confirmed with Link: Panarin/Motte/2017 6th to Columbus for Saad/Anton Forsberg/2018 5th

[BK]

In hindsight, Stan got fleeced. However, did you ever applaud Stan for finding and signing Panarin? At some point, people get tired of the schtick. Sometimes you have to tell the truth to get credibility. Otherwise you get eaten by the big bad wolf.

Year 1, 100% we lost this trade but all it takes to correct it is a good season from Saad next year.

Agree with the rest but you are wasting your time. This is coming from someone who will debate sports with anyone.

 

[Rolo]

Funny thing is, Columbus had a bad PP, and he only had 21pts.

Add to the fact, it took him a while to adjust, and fine consistent line-mates, I wouldn't be suprised if he pushes 90pts+.

Can you justify a 55pt "two-way" forward for a 90pt+ dynamic game breaking forward?

 

[BK]

Funny thing is, Columbus had a bad PP, and he only had 21pts.

Add to the fact, it took him a while to adjust, and fine consistent line-mates, I wouldn't be suprised if he pushes 90pts+.

Can you justify a 55pt "two-way" forward for a 90pt+ dynamic game breaking forward?

One thing has happened before and the other has come not close to happening. If Saad returns to his past form you can 100% justify it comparing him to an 80 point Panarin.

Panarin got hot to end the season, is this his new norm or is the past 3 seasons his normal (a tick under ppg offensive stud)? I think he is around a PPG player who is in his prime. Remember he finished the season with 13 points in 5 games to get to 81 points. Torts did everything in his power to put AP in position to score (good on Torts as it is smart).

After next season you will be comparing a 55 pt two way player making 6.0 with as 80 point player making 9.0+. That is the thing you are missing or forgetting. Do you think AP is going to grow more as a player? I think we are seeing peak AP and he is a damn good player.

 

[geoo9]

Panarin got hot to end the season, is this his new norm or is the past 3 seasons his normal (a tick under ppg offensive stud)? I think he is around a PPG player who is in his prime. Remember he finished the season with 13 points in 5 games to get to 81 points. Torts did everything in his power to put AP in position to score (good on Torts as it is smart).

Panarin got hot when they need it. He really carried them at PO and Torts just havent another options to reach PO insted increasing Breads icetime. He maked many doubleshifts because it helps team alot. Whole team makes better because that little guy - he is like heart of that team and i think CBJ better for him personnaly because those young guys responds well to Panarin.
Time to forget him guys - there is different story of success

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

Panarin was Havlat his first year. He turned into Peter Bondra his second.

He's back to Havlat. He's the guy there. He's the game breaker every team needs.

I always thought he was better than Saad. I just didn't think he was 40+ points better.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Panarin was Havlat his first year. He turned into Peter Bondra his second.

He's back to Havlat. He's the guy there. He's the game breaker every team needs.

I always thought he was better than Saad. I just didn't think he was 40+ points better.

He turned into that guy his second year in part because of coaching. The staff let him become a one trick pony, tethered to Kane.

 

[BK]

Panarin got hot when they need it. He really carried them at PO and Torts just havent another options to reach PO insted increasing Breads icetime. He maked many doubleshifts because it helps team alot. Whole team makes better because that little guy - he is like heart of that team and i think CBJ better for him personnaly because those young guys responds well to Panarin.
Time to forget him guys - there is different story of success

Bold: I don’t get what you are trying to say. Mind explaining?

No one really expects AP to come back. He is going to cost way to much (rightfully so).

 

[Blackhawks]

I don’t get what you are trying to say.

Clearly his first language is not English, I have full understanding of it non the less. Read it a few times it will come to you bud.

 

[piteus]

The Bottomline: The Hawks wouldn't have had to trade Panarin if we didn't overpay for Toews and even Kane ... and re sign Seabrook.

Could Q have played him better? Sure. However, I'm not going to hammer Q for a player having a jump in his 3rd year. It happens all the time.

I don't think Saad is as bad as everyone thinks he is. Offensively, he needs playmakers on his line. Unfortunately, Toews fell off the cliff and Hossa is retired.

Of all the salary capped sports, hockey is the most repressive because the cap rarely goes up. The Hawks are great in scouting ... unfortunately terrible in cap management. That is Bowman's downfall.

 

[piteus]

Clearly his first language is not English, I have full understanding of it non the less. Read it a few times it will come to you bud.

Yes ... that is true.

Unfortunately, I read your post more than a few times and never understand the logic.

 

[Rolo]

The Bottomline: The Hawks wouldn't have had to trade Panarin if we didn't overpay for Toews and even Kane ... and re sign Seabrook.

Could Q have played him better? Sure. However, I'm not going to hammer Q for a player having a jump in his 3rd year. It happens all the time.

I don't think Saad is as bad as everyone thinks he is. Offensively, he needs playmakers on his line. Unfortunately, Toews fell off the cliff and Hossa is retired.

Of all the salary capped sports, hockey is the most repressive because the cap rarely goes up. The Hawks are great in scouting ... unfortunately terrible in cap management. That is Bowman's downfall.

Well we just kinda had to bite the bullet. Toews, Kane and Seabrook got paid largely for their past accomplishments.

Kane's cap-hit still holds up, but Toews does not.

Even elite-two way 65 point Toews likely doesn't deserve 10.5M

 

[BK]

Seabrook is the issue. I can never happen again but there is no point is going through this conversation again as we have had it over and over and over.

Toews and Kane got what they deserved and no one thought Toews would fall off like this.

If the Hawks continue to draft well and fine FAs in Europe we will continue to lose players every now and again, this is just a fact of life. Lots of IFs with the team right now but if they hit with this pick and Toews can bounce back the window can open again because they have young talent coming.

 

[BK]

Well we just kinda had to bite the bullet. Toews, Kane and Seabrook got paid largely for their past accomplishments.

Kane's cap-hit still holds up, but Toews does not.

Even elite-two way 65 point Toews likely doesn't deserve 10.5M

EVERYONE's contract is partially for past accomplishments but the issue is the percentage of the deal, Seabrook's is 90% past (this is the issue).

Kane - Is producing to his contract now.

Toews - if he is going to score 65 points he must be a Selke finalist every year. Might not be a bad idea to move Schmaltz back to his wing along with Saad and see if he can regain the scoring we saw with the duo the year prior. Then have a 12-15-88 line with offensive zone starts galore.

 

[piteus]

Seabrook is the issue. I can never happen again but there is no point is going through this conversation again as we have had it over and over and over.

Toews and Kane got what they deserved and no one thought Toews would fall off like this.

If the Hawks continue to draft well and fine FAs in Europe we will continue to lose players every now and again, this is just a fact of life. Lots of IFs with the team right now but if they hit with this pick and Toews can bounce back the window can open again because they have young talent coming.

I remember posters having a problem with Kane and Toews' cap hits. It was such a premium (~$1.5 / year) people were somewhat concerned (unfortunately, I wasn't one of them). That's potentially $3mn / year in cap space. Furthermore, Bowman thought the cap would move up ... that was a critical error.

The Seabrook extension was a disaster. That's 100% on Bowman.

Another Bowman weakness is his penchant for giving away NTCs. I heard Daryl Morey and Theo Epstein imply that NTCs are a last resort. It really hurts a team's options.

I understood Bowman's contracts for players like Hossa, Bickell, and Keith. That needed to be done. However, Toews, Kane, and Seabrook's contracts were more about rewarding for past performance instead of looking forward. He compounded the mistake with NTCs. Who was Bowman comepting against?

Bowman isn't all bad either. His scouting is pretty good. He also has the ability to sign UFAs. Unfortunately, he dug himeslf a big hole with his cap management.

 

[BK]

I remember posters having a problem with Kane and Toews' cap hits. It was such a premium (~$1.5 / year) people were somewhat concerned (unfortunately, I wasn't one of them). That's potentially $3mn / year in cap space. Furthermore, Bowman thought the cap would move up ... that was a critical error.

The Seabrook extension was a disaster. That's 100% on Bowman.

Another Bowman weakness is his penchant for giving away NTCs. I heard Daryl Morey and Theo Epstein imply that NTCs are a last resort. It really hurts a team's options.

I understood Bowman's contracts for players like Hossa, Bickell, and Keith. That needed to be done. However, Toews, Kane, and Seabrook's contracts were more about rewarding for past performance instead of looking forward. He compounded the mistake with NTCs. Who was Bowman comepting against?

Bowman isn't all bad either. His scouting is pretty good. He also has the ability to sign UFAs. Unfortunately, he dug himeslf a big hole with his cap management.

Seabrook 100%, no one liked the deal. Honestly it makes no sense no matter what angle you look at it from. Personally, I think John McD meddled and it has been reported he did (just like Bickell) but even then Stan should have said no. This deal is a monumental failure in management. The fact that he has not been fired for this leads me to further believe he was not the only party involved.

Toews and Kane were really just entering their prime. I know people wanted Kane and Toews deals to be 1.5 less each but that is not realistic. They would have got 1.5+ more each on the open market. Just look at the offers Stamkos received.

In regards to the cap not going up, everything indicated it would and then it didn't due to the Canadian dollar (what the hell were they thinking basing the cap on the Canadian dollar in the first place?).

His cap management was excellent until the cap did not go up and Seabrook's deal. Remember he rebuilt the team twice.

NMC/NTC are just moronic unless you are talking Kane/Toews/Keith/Crow.

 

[ColdSteel2]

God I miss him now. Would love a chance to sign him back.

 

[SpecialK8]

Interesting discussion. I'd like to share my perspective on Panarin being a Columbus resident and being a partial season ticket holder for the Blue Jackets.

I can't speak to Chicago's motivation, whether it was the right call to make that trade mostly based on salary. I do know that Brandon Saad was a real disappointment for Columbus last year and this trade was a Godsend to the Blue Jackets. Early in the year, Panarin was very passive. I think being on a new team he was trying too hard to be unselfish. Halfway through the year, he started being a little more aggressive but when Columbus was struggling to score, you still had him trying to make great, unseflish passes to teammates that just weren't putting the puck in the net. Late in the year though, Panarin got comfortable with his linemates and started attacking. What you saw was the guy who was on a torrid pace at the end of the season. To the person that said he had to get 13 points in 5 games to get to 80+ points, while that's true, I would argue that it shows he absolutely can be a 90+ point guy the next few years if he stays with Columbus because he's THE guy and he's gotten comfortable.

Admittedly, I didn't watch Panarin frequently when in Chicago. I saw his talent and was excited for the trade, but I understood the reservations about how he would perform without Kane (I never cared for the playoff stuff. Sample size was too small and I don't subscribe to guys being completely different players than an 82-game sample). But everything I've seen from Panarin shows me a guy who's better on defense than he was given credit for (he's been very good). Yes, he plays 43% of the plays in the offensive zone but that's not because of a lack of defense, it's strictly because he's been so lethal offensively. Panarin's scoring has been good but he's such a better passer than I knew.

I don't know how this will go with his contract, but Columbus has scored the most goals as a team since the trade deadline. In fact, not only have they scored the most goals, they did so by like 10 goals over the next closest team. This team is clicking now. I think Panarin is in a great situation because he's a perfect guy to be 'the man' since he can score and pass. Since Columbus has several young compliments to him with Atkinson, Dubois, etc. and two of the best scoring Ds in the league with Werenski and Jones. Honestly I could see Panarin getting to 90 points next year.

 

[piteus]

Seabrook 100%, no one liked the deal. Honestly it makes no sense no matter what angle you look at it from. Personally, I think John McD meddled and it has been reported he did (just like Bickell) but even then Stan should have said no. This deal is a monumental failure in management. The fact that he has not been fired for this leads me to further believe he was not the only party involved.

Toews and Kane were really just entering their prime. I know people wanted Kane and Toews deals to be 1.5 less each but that is not realistic. They would have got 1.5+ more each on the open market. Just look at the offers Stamkos received.

In regards to the cap not going up, everything indicated it would and then it didn't due to the Canadian dollar (what the hell were they thinking basing the cap on the Canadian dollar in the first place?).

His cap management was excellent until the cap did not go up and Seabrook's deal. Remember he rebuilt the team twice.

NMC/NTC are just moronic unless you are talking Kane/Toews/Keith/Crow.

I agree with a lot of your points. However, we had a debate before about Stan Bowman trying to play currency analyst. I work in the Markets and have seen some of the greatest minds on Wall Street implode speculating on currency. There are just too many moving parts (namely govenrment interference) and Stan fell for it. Playing the currency markets when it's not your core competence is like starting a land war in Asia. Ultimately, you're going to lose.

Stan Bowman was ill equipped to play Canadian Dollar game and lost. It hurt the Hawks.

 

[BK]

I agree with a lot of your points. However, we had a debate before about Stan Bowman trying to play currency analyst. I work in the Markets and have seen some of the greatest minds on Wall Street implode speculating on currency. There are just too many moving parts (namely govenrment interference) and Stan fell for it. Playing the currency markets when it's not your core competence is like starting a land war in Asia. Ultimately, you're going to lose.

Stan Bowman was ill equipped to play Canadian Dollar game and lost. It hurt the Hawks.

Oh I don't disagree. I am going to assume he wasn't doing the speculation on his own but who knows. I have a friends who trade currency and he said the same thing.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

This again? Blaming Bowman for betting on the Canadian dollar is nonsensical. Literally every team in our position at that time would've done nearly the same thing, the timing was just bad as Toews/Kane just so happened to be the only mega deals due to be booked at that time. Essentially everybody was looking at Toews/Kane as being the new benchmark for franchise superstars under the new CBA and everbody was further banking on a solid Canadian dollar and a booming cap ceiling. Had the Nuck Buck tanked a year prior, Toews and Kane would've gotten smaller deals. Had it tanked a year or two later, there would've been several more players signed to as big/bigger deals.

Feel free to knock him for the Seabs extension or getting rid of Teravainen for only a single year of Bickell's deal. Those were bad moves. Toews and Kane at the time? Nah, perfectly solid based on the information available.

 

[geoo9]

Bold: I don’t get what you are trying to say. Mind explaining?

No one really expects AP to come back. He is going to cost way to much (rightfully so).

i try to said that Panarin found his team. Hawks better go without him and him personnaly better to realize himself as 1 st star of team. I think no chances that he would be that good at CBH.
At columbus AP really overturn their minds with his mentality, joy to play, will ( i dunno what it is, but for example, whole team, even Torts copied APs celebrations after goals.
Tortorella said that they crossed bribge from "hope to win" to "expect to win" in AP. I do not think that he could have had the same positive impact on the Chicago game just because team is older and full of successes experience.

 

[Blackhawks]

Man watching these playoffs makes this team look like a bunch of AHLers, this team has no skill what so ever, just a bunch of chicken with heir head cut off, average players on other teams look like our top guys lol. Stan is not a bad GM though peeps, at this rate I can’t wait to pick first over all in 2019 lol

 

[piteus]

This again? Blaming Bowman for betting on the Canadian dollar is nonsensical. Literally every team in our position at that time would've done nearly the same thing, the timing was just bad as Toews/Kane just so happened to be the only mega deals due to be booked at that time. Essentially everybody was looking at Toews/Kane as being the new benchmark for franchise superstars under the new CBA and everbody was further banking on a solid Canadian dollar and a booming cap ceiling. Had the Nuck Buck tanked a year prior, Toews and Kane would've gotten smaller deals. Had it tanked a year or two later, there would've been several more players signed to as big/bigger deals.

Feel free to knock him for the Seabs extension or getting rid of Teravainen for only a single year of Bickell's deal. Those were bad moves. Toews and Kane at the time? Nah, perfectly solid based on the information available.

Really? We gave a massive premium to Toews and Kane. No one else did for their superstars. The Hawks set the market. End of story.

I don't understand why everyone was banking on a strong Candian Dollar when several bulge bracket banks warned of a possible drop in oil prices. I know this for a fact because I had several arguments with Goldman Sachs about it. They were one of the catalysts calling for a major downturn in Brent Crude.

BOTTOMLINE: Bowman tried to time the Canadian Dollar and got burned. There's no way to spin it. "Hey everyone's doing it, so we should do it," is NO excuse. It's even moreso when it's not your core competency. Anyone who keeps saying no one saw this coming ... is lying. Goldman warned of a potential drop in oil prices. It was one of their more controversial research reports. This from a bank who makes a majority of their profits from investment banking deals (not from trading).

Hence, not everyone was guiding for a stronger Canadian Dollar. There was uncertainty outside the NHL.

Goldman is one of the better bellwethers to the markets. When they go counter to the markets (especially when it's hot), you have to be careful. None of this was more true when Goldman went public in late 1999. It was a signal that the markets peaked. It was something I learned from a well known hedge fund manager.

 

[ClydeLee]

Got burned...? the team locked up the players so UFA wasn't gonna be on the mind and they won a 3rd cup. I'm not sure the complaints here, that bowman should of waited out for ufa on elite players on a cup run instead of securing or argued much harder against T & Ks agents against the league and Betmans reports that the cap is gonna rise because he should be following Goldman Sachs predictions closely? Not sure that's gonna work out with these agents then.

Even with the lesser say 8.5 only deals despite that being less than the market of what Subban made, the cap rising would now put Panarin higher up just close to equal their greater deals still out of the hawks price.

 

[piteus]

Got burned...? the team locked up the players so UFA wasn't gonna be on the mind and they won a 3rd cup. I'm not sure the complaints here, that bowman should of waited out for ufa on elite players on a cup run instead of securing or argued much harder against T & Ks agents against the league and Betmans reports that the cap is gonna rise because he should be following Goldman Sachs predictions closely? Not sure that's gonna work out with these agents then.

Even with the lesser say 8.5 only deals despite that being less than the market of what Subban made, the cap rising would now put Panarin higher up just close to equal their greater deals still out of the hawks price.

I'm not a Bowman basher. He's had some good wins too. The only point I'm making: it's best to stay in your core competency in regards to management. Once you start trying to time the markets / speculate on the Canadian Dollar ... it's a dangerous game.

Posters keep saying everyone was predicting the salary cap to move up. Why? Because Gary Bettman (who's has failures on his resume), a trained lawyer, told the NHL owners revenues / the Canadian dollar were heading higher? A more profitable NHL ... who does that make look good? Perhaps the commissioner of the NHL?

All I'm saying is that a good manager sticks to their core competency. Once you try to justify transactions outside your core competency, you get yourself in trouble. I have no problem if Bowman signed Toews and Kane to their deals because that's what their hockey skills were worth presently and going forward. However, I have a problem if Bowman or posters say their deals were fair with what we/they thought the salary cap was headed. That's a dangerous game. It brings an element that we are not experts in (a highly volatile variable).