P.K. Subban Thread IX: 'Try to make this one last longer than a day' Edition

[29dryden29]

So again... these players should just accept the league minimum? Is that what you're saying?

Last time I checked 2.1 2.9 or even 3.0 is a far cry from league min salary. If he was being offered 900K then I would say no that is too low but come on he isn't being offered 900K. If you thought his little brushes with Pleks etc were something last season wait till he gets back Prust will ragdoll him if he gets out of line he isn't afraid to step up to a team mate if they cross the line. That being said none of us know exactly what happened betweek PK and Pleks etc. So to that I say let the boys on the ice and in the dressing room sort it out. If it comes to blows to get a team member to take heed then so be it.

 

[Forsead]

Still doesn't make sense. Sign him long term for 5 mil per. Nobody doubts his talents on the ice and if he doesn't fit into your plans behidn the scenes then deal him. If you do it this way you're dealing from a position of strength.

The idea of signing a player long term to increase his value is a myth, especially for a RFA. The team that will want to get him will be more thatnhappy to be able to negotiate themselves with the player for the contract they want.


Long terms deals are scary (especially for less fortunate teams) unless the player is Malkin, Crosby or Stamkos, hell look at Ovechkin now....

5 millions isn't that much a discount to increase Subban value, it's Erik Karlsson money...

 

[Hockey Team]

I could see character as an issue.

Another 2 years would give time to evaluate whether he matures or not. All the skill in the world is great, but a player still can't be a liability with Pejorative Slured penalties.

 

[NotProkofievian]

Bergevin is like the waitress who serves you your meal and sprinkles some grated parmesan cheese on it and lights the candle at your table. You say thank you to her, too but the meal is either good or bad depending on the people who did all the work before she carried the plate all the way to your table.

SouthernHab doesn't thank waitresses: he tells them to get him some damn ketchup for his steak.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Last time I checked 2.1 2.9 or even 3.0 is a far cry from league min salary. If he was being offered 900K then I would say no that is too low but come on he isn't being offered 900K. If you thought his little brushes with Pleks etc were something last season wait till he gets back Prust will ragdoll him if he gets out of line he isn't afraid to step up to a team mate if they cross the line. That being said none of us know exactly what happened betweek PK and Pleks etc. So to that I say let the boys on the ice and in the dressing room sort it out. If it comes to blows to get a team member to take heed then so be it.

I'm testing the limits of your position.

You admit 900k is too low, okay... let's say the team came back at 900k. At that point would it be okay for PK to sit out or does he have to take it because that's what the team values him at? At what point is it okay for this guy to stand up for himself?

The idea of signing a player long term to increase his value is a myth, especially for a RFA. The team that will want to get him will be more thatnhappy to be able to negotiate themselves with the player for the contract they want.


Long terms deals are scary (especially for less fortunate teams) unless the player is Malkin, Crosby or Stamkos, hell look at Ovechkin now....

5 millions isn't that much a discount to increase Subban value, it's Erik Karlsson money...

5 million is pretty standard for a 1st line blueliner. Signing Subban long term at 5 mil per is probably going to be a steal for us in the long run.

There's risk in ANY contract. Look at OV, could you have forseen him crashing and burning? Of course not.

If the discussion was paying PK 7 years at 7 mil per I could understand what you're saying but he's already a 5 million dollar player today. We have to assume he's going to get better dude he's only 23. So you sign him and hope that he gets better. If he stays the same, it's still not a bad contract.

I could see character as an issue.

He hasn't done anythign to warrant being paid 2 million dollars less than he's worth.

Another 2 years would give time to evaluate whether he matures or not. All the skill in the world is great, but a player still can't be a liability with Pejorative Slured penalties.

He drew more penalties than he took.

 

[Forsead]

5 million is pretty standard for a 1st line blueliner. Signing Subban long term at 5 mil per is probably going to be a steal for us in the long run.

There's risk in ANY contract. Look at OV, could you have forseen him crashing and burning? Of course not.

If the discussion was paying PK 7 years at 7 mil per I could understand what you're saying but he's already a 5 million dollar player today. We have to assume he's going to get better dude he's only 23. So you sign him and hope that he gets better. If he stays the same, it's still not a bad contract.

5 millions is still good money for a less than 25 years old RFA defenseman on a long term deal, even when they are first line.

Erik Karlsson : 6,5 millions cap hit for 7 years
Erik Johnson : 3,75 for 4 years
Alexander Edler : 5 for 6 years
Keith Yandle : 5,25 for 5 years
Kris Letang : 3,5 for 4 years
Michael Del Zotto : 2,55 for 2 years
Jack Johnson : 4,357,143 for 7 years
Drew Doughty : 7 for 8 years
John Carlson : 3,966,667 for 6 years
Alex Goligoski : 4,6 for 4 years
Zach Bogosian : 2,5 for 2 years
Cam Fowler : 4 for 5 years
Dmitry Kulikov : 2,5 for 2 years

Doughty and Karlsson are better no question, the others are all debatable (but IMO Yandle is better).

Looking at this list, 5 millions for 5-6-7 years is a fair deal for PK (it would put him in the better paid of the list if you exclude to two players that are surely better than him), but it's clearly not the steal some are making it out to be. It's not the kind of deal that increase a player value in a trade compared to a 2 years deal at a smaller cap hit. Like you say very well there is a risk with long terms deal, looking at Ovechkin right now.

Also looking at young studs like Kulikov, Bogosian and Del Zotto with 2 years deal at 2,5 millions, I fail to see the how much ''insulting'' this offers are like some are trying to say, especially since in the Subban case I see Bergevin starting with that to negotiate and have Subban accept something like a 2 years 3,5-3,75 offer.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

5 millions is still good money for a less than 25 years old RFA defenseman on a long term deal, even when they are first line.

Erik Karlsson : 6,5 millions cap hit for 7 years
Erik Johnson : 3,75 for 4 years
Alexander Edler : 5 for 6 years
Keith Yandle : 5,25 for 5 years
Kris Letang : 3,5 for 4 years
Michael Del Zotto : 2,55 for 2 years
Jack Johnson : 4,357,143 for 7 years
Drew Doughty : 7 for 8 years
Tobias Enstrom : 5,75 for 5 years
John Carlson : 3,966,667 for 6 years
Alex Goligoski : 4,6 for 4 years
Zach Bogosian : 2,5 for 2 years
Cam Fowler : 4 for 5 years
Dmitry Kulikov : 2,5 for 2 years


Looking at this list, 5 millions for 5-6-7 years is a fair deal for PK, but it's clearly not the steal some are making it out to be. It's not the kind of deal that increase a player value in a trade compared to a 2 years deal at a smaller cap hit. Like you say very well there is a risk with long terms deal, looking at Ovechkin right now.

Also looking at young studs like Kulikov, Bogosian and Del Zotto with 2 years deal at 2,5 millions, I fail to see the how much ''insulting'' this offers are like some are trying to say, especially since in the Subban case I see Bergevin starting with that to negotiate and have Subban accept something like a 2 years 3,5-3,75 offer.

I'm not saying it's a steal. I'm saying it probably would be a steal down the road. Even if he stays the same though, 5 mil is fair.

Kris Letang is a steal.

 

[Forsead]

I'm not saying it's a steal. I'm saying it probably would be a steal down the road. Even if he stays the same though, 5 mil is fair.

Kris Letang is a steal.

And do you think half thoses player are\will be steals ? Because they all have comparable contracts and are comparables players.

I think maybe you're idea of the market for a young rfa top 3 (and possible #1)defenseman is a 500 000-1 000 000 higher than mine, but down the road we both agree that 5 millions is fair, especially looking at the list. What I'm saying it's that it's still logical for Bergevin to want a short term deal, because IMO it doesn't affect his trade value while being more safe, because of all the ''rumors''. ALso, I wanted to make a strong argument against the peoples saying that the 2,5 millions for 2 years was insulting, especially since Kulikov, Del Zotto and Bogosian sign one, while I leave the possibility that thoses numbers are BS from the media\or is just the start from which Bergevin has done in negotiation to get to a 3,25 to 3,75 deal for two years.

I personaly believe thoses rumors to be BS (but I understand that in Bergevin case you have to be careful and see by yourself) and I hope Subban become the complete stud I think he will be while playing with us for is entire career. Then again I could be happy with a Erik Johnson type of trade !

I'm just trying to look at the entire picture while being reasonable and logical and trying to resolve Bergevin position without saying having as a solution that he's just a fool.

 

[DAChampion]

And do you think half thoses player are\will be steals ? Because they all have comparable contracts and are comparables players.

I think maybe you're idea of the market for a young rfa top 3 (and possible #1)defenseman is a 500 000-1 000 000 higher than mine, but down the road we both agree that 5 millions is fair, especially looking at the list. What I'm saying it's that it's still logical for Bergevin to want a short term deal, because IMO it doesn't affect his trade value while being more safe, because of all the ''rumors''. ALso, I wanted to make a strong argument against the peoples saying that the 2,5 millions for 2 years was insulting, especially since Kulikov, Del Zotto and Bogosian sign one, while I leave the possibility that thoses numbers are BS from the media\or is just the start from which Bergevin has done in negotiation to get to a 3,25 to 3,75 deal for two years.

I personaly believe thoses rumors to be BS (but I understand that in Bergevin case you have to be careful and see by yourself) and I hope Subban become the complete stud I think he will be while playing with us for is entire career. Then again I could be happy with a Erik Johnson type of trade !

I'm just trying to look at the entire picture while being reasonable and logical.

What are top pairing dmen worth when they make the UFA market?

- Roman Hamrlik, 4 years @ 5.5 million per in 2007, equivalent to 7.7 million in a 70.2 million cap world.
- Zdeno Chara, 5 years @ 7.5 million in 2006, equivalent to 12.0 million in a 70.2 million cap world.
- Jay Bouwmeester, 5 years @ 6.68 million in 2009, equivalent to 8.3 million in a 70.2 million cap world.
- Ryan Suter, 13 years @ 7.0 million in 2012, equivalent to 7.0 million in a 70.2 million cap world.

And so on and so forth.

 

[Forsead]

What are top pairing dmen worth when they make the UFA market?

- Roman Hamrlik, 4 years @ 5.5 million per in 2007, equivalent to 7.7 million in a 70.2 million cap world.
- Zdeno Chara, 5 years @ 7.5 million in 2006, equivalent to 12.0 million in a 70.2 million cap world.
- Jay Bouwmeester, 5 years @ 6.68 million in 2009, equivalent to 8.3 million in a 70.2 million cap world.
- Ryan Suter, 13 years @ 7.0 million in 2012, equivalent to 7.0 million in a 70.2 million cap world.

And so on and so forth.

I think it's pretty clear I've always talk about RFA players and compare to others RFAs. UFAs are completly different. You know it, I know it, I don't even understand your point with this.

Even with a long term deal like 5-6 years Habs would only buying 1-2 years of free agency nothing to really change his value . Maybe you would have a point with 3-4 years of UFA. It would take a 8 years deal to start being interesting, but with such lenght you have to admit the danger is there and the player has to take a lowet cap hit.

 

[BobbyFischer*]

Trade Subban for Couturier, please.

 

[JustAHabFan]

Trade Subban for Couturier, please.

No want.

 

[BobbyFischer*]

No want.

Any better ideas for a big, young talented Center we could unload Subbie-doo for?

 

[FinnHab]

I could see character as an issue.

Another 2 years would give time to evaluate whether he matures or not. All the skill in the world is great, but a player still can't be a liability with Pejorative Slured penalties.

That character issue must be only reason why Habs-brass is cautious with Subban. I cant imagine any other reason.

 

[Et le But]

Trade Subban for Couturier, please.

Let's not and say we did.

 

[BobbyFischer*]

Let's not and say we did.

Subban and Eller for Couturier and Coburn

?

 

[Mr. Hab]

Tinordi and Beaulieu are above average prospects, Ellis is solid and Thrower/Dietz are decent, but any of them will be lucky to be 75% the player Subban is. Subban was a winning lotto ticket, you don't throw that out unless you know you can make a great trade, are a control freak beyond reason or a racist.

I agree, except...I'd say Beaulieu and Tinordi are a bit more than above average prospects. They just need time (I wouldn't rush them...this way they come to the NHL quite ready).

Ellis...I agree is a solid prospect, but...if you say Ellis is solid...Beaulieu and Tinordi have to be up there as well, imo. We have to be patient with those three and...patience should pay off.

Thrower: I really hope he'll be our next Odelein/Wisniewski.

And I agree...Subban is a winning lotto. We just have to find a way for everyone to be happy, to get along if rumors are true...I don't want to believe rumors about Subban's cockiness/major arrogance/fresh me-me-me personality, several fights with teammates, Gill calling Subban a jerk for a valid reason,etc,etc...but starting to think that is why Bergevin is lowballing Subban...he probably doesn't believe they are just rumors since he probably spoke/asked some players,etc... and maybe it's as if Bergevin is doing a favor to many Hab players who may not like Subban so much by lowballing him and keeping him away from the Habs. In the end...we're a better team with Subban on it (he has superstar potential...and he's already a star, imo).


I just want to see Subban playing hockey again for our CH.

(and as soon as he can while Markov is still healthy).


5 players (in order) I don't want to see traded (this is how important Subban is for our CH):
1. Price/Subban
2. Subban/Price
3. Galchenyuk
4. Gorges
5. Pacioretty
(and I can't wait till Tinordi, Beaulieu, Ellis, Thrower...are fully developed/ready!!).

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

Trade Subban for Couturier, please.

And trade Plekanec just to make room for him? Either way, Philly won't do it.

Subban and Eller for Couturier and Coburn

?

Why does Philly do this? They need defense and you're subtracting it.

I preface this by saying I neither like the deal nor would I do it but the highest return is likely:

Schenn + Schenn + 1st for Subban + Eller + 2nd.

Picks may not even be involved. Call me pessimistic but Montreal has not exactly inspired faith in trades.

 

[Price is Wright]

I think it's pretty clear I've always talk about RFA players and compare to others RFAs. UFAs are completly different. You know it, I know it, I don't even understand your point with this.

Let's compare RFAs with RFAs.

Cam Fowler: Five year, $4M per extension.
Victor Hedman: Five year, $3.5M per extension.
Luke Schenn: Five year, $3.6M per extension.
Drew Doughty: Eight year, $7M per extension.
Erik Johnson: Four year, $3.75M per extension.

Only one of those players are better than Subban. Guess which.

 

[ECWHSWI]

Let's compare RFAs with RFAs.

Cam Fowler: Five year, $4M per extension.
Victor Hedman: Five year, $3.5M per extension.
Luke Schenn: Five year, $3.6M per extension.
Drew Doughty: Eight year, $7M per extension.
Erik Johnson: Four year, $3.75M per extension.

Only one of those players are better than Subban. Guess which.

how many will get a raise on their next contract : ALL of them.

nothing to worry about for GOOD rfa, they all eventually hit the jackpot, so to speak.

 

[ECWHSWI]

how many will get a raise on their next contract : ALL of them.

nothing to worry about for GOOD rfa, they all eventually hit the jackpot, so to speak.

edit : well probably not schenn as he isnt showing much signs of improvement.

 

[Price is Wright]

edit : well probably not schenn as he isnt showing much signs of improvement.

And Cam Fowler will never get better defensively and his points will drop once Selanne and Koivu retire and Getzlaf/Perry go play for a different team in the summer.

My point was more that people continue focusing on Carlson and Del Zotto when there are plenty of examples around the league of players who got decent money in their first RFA years, some close to double the Bergevin rumoured offer.

That said, it's Monday and hopefully this has all been put to rest today. I hope Subban signs, plays out of his mind and stays a member of the Montreal Canadiens. If Bergevin keeps him at this price and then keeps him later, he'll deserve every bit of worship for playing hardball and winning. I just see this and wonder what Igor Larionov plans to tell Galchenyuk in a couple seasons.

 

[BobbyFischer*]

And Cam Fowler will never get better defensively and his points will drop once Selanne and Koivu retire and Getzlaf/Perry go play for a different team in the summer.

My point was more that people continue focusing on Carlson and Del Zotto when there are plenty of examples around the league of players who got decent money in their first RFA years, some close to double the Bergevin rumoured offer.

That said, it's Monday and hopefully this has all been put to rest today. I hope Subban signs, plays out of his mind and stays a member of the Montreal Canadiens. If Bergevin keeps him at this price and then keeps him later, he'll deserve every bit of worship for playing hardball and winning. I just see this and wonder what Igor Larionov plans to tell Galchenyuk in a couple seasons.

What's the deal with Igor Larionov and Galchy again? His mentor?

 

[PricePkPatch*]

I UNDERSTAND!!

MB is simply repeating the Kings' strategy of last year. It involves acquiring tough guys in the mid-season and have your star young defensemen unsigned for the first games.

We'll win the Stanley Cup!!

 

[Price is Wright]

What's the deal with Igor Larionov and Galchy again? His mentor?

His agent.