Overages for 2024-2025

[Donnie740]

We will definitely see some OA’s swap teams. D’Amato is a pretty decent player but if Oshawa wants to compete, they’d move him and bring in Smith without a doubt since Smith fills a void that D’Amato cannot fill.

I’m the first to acknowledge that Oshawa has a very soft team devoid of any physical presence. In addition to that, their depth is also very thin - - particularly on defense after the misguided fleecing by Owen Sound.

A one-for-one swap of D’Amato for a Connor Punnett type defenceman would help to address the lack of toughness, but it still leaves them with only 4.5 capable defencemen.

Svozil the Euro is still trying to prove that he can be trusted but Rodriguez is unreliable during the regular season and unplayable during the postseason.

As we saw last year, you CANNOT survive in the playoffs with only 2.5 reliable defensive pairings. If there’s an injury, it leaves only four defencemen and they just get worn down logging 25+ mins every game.

Luke Torrance has been a serviceable player for Oshawa and it’s a cute story that he’s a local player, but you cannot keep an injury prone 3rd line plug ahead of a top four defenseman. Having an “A” on his jersey is completely irrelevant - - just as it was last year when long tenured assistant captain Tommy Stewart was traded away for a better OA player.

This should be obvious to anyone assessing the team objectively, but unfortunately pom poms can obscure logical thought.

 

[OMG67]

I’m the first to acknowledge that Oshawa has a very soft team devoid of any physical presence. In addition to that, their depth is also very thin - - particularly on defense after the misguided fleecing by Owen Sound.

A one-for-one swap of D’Amato for a Connor Punnett type defenceman would help to address the lack of toughness, but it still leaves them with only 4.5 capable defencemen.

Svozil the Euro is still trying to prove that he can be trusted but Rodriguez is unreliable during the regular season and unplayable during the postseason.

As we saw last year, you CANNOT survive in the playoffs with only 2.5 reliable defensive pairings. If there’s an injury, it leaves only four defencemen and they just get worn down logging 25+ mins every game.

Luke Torrance has been a serviceable player for Oshawa and it’s a cute story that he’s a local player, but you cannot keep an injury prone 3rd line plug ahead of a top four defenseman. Having an “A” on his jersey is completely irrelevant - - just as it was last year when long tenured assistant captain Tommy Stewart was traded away for a better OA player.

This should be obvious to anyone assessing the team objectively, but unfortunately pom poms can obscure logical thought.

OA spots are required to fill the bigger gaps because it is cheaper. If you need to sacrifice the roster spots currently held by D’Amato and Torrance, then so be it. You cannot look at the Punnet deal last year as a comparable of what you should expect again this year. That was a fortunate one off deal. That is the type of deal you walk into maybe once every ten years. Something fishy happened there. Either Barrie outwaited th market and screwed themselves or Punnet requested to go to Oshawa and only Oshawa. I can tell you that if Boyd knew Punnet would go for what he went for and still paid what he paid for Mayer, he should be fired on the spot. IMO, Punnet was the best available OA D-Man on the market last year without even any question. So, if you are expecting the best available OA D-Man on the market this year again and only pay a marginal roster player and a 4th round pick, you are underestimating how much of a discount you got last year.

If you want a player like Smith, it will cost at minimum a 2nd, 3rd, 4th which is the going rate for solid impactful OAs.

 

[Donnie740]

I agree that neither would net the Wakely return but keep in mind that by the time the playoffs rolled around, Stonehouse was playing with one arm. He had offseason shoulder surgery and is finally set to return this week. I wouldn’t look at his stats for the 2nd half and playoffs last year. The previous playoff he played mostly on a shut down line with Tolnai as the centre. He wasn’t out there on the Powerplay and was mostly used to agitate and shadow other offensive lines. In fairness, that would be his role this coming playoff as well. Agitate and and be the energy guy. Any offence from him int he playoffs is a bonus. Teams aren’t acquiring Stonehouse withthe primary objective to score goals. There are other guys that do that. A team like Brampton doesn’t need scorers. They need some leadership and players with that agitating style because they don’t have any of it outside of Leskovar. I could see them being one of the teams in on Stonehouse because he is the type of player they lack.

If a team wants an energy guy that can score, maybe Van Steensel is a bette option. But, IMO, Stonehouse brings more agitation and in a seven game series, that is the type of player that can swing a series if he can get under the skin of the opposition. Stonehouse can absorb a lot of punishment after the whistle in front of the net. That can wear down the opposition and distract them. He has a face even a mother would punch. Perfect for playoffs.

Stonehouse completely shriveled against Oshawa in the playoffs last year. If you want to blame that because he had a sore arm, how do you explain his no-show in the 2022-23 playoffs?

Unlike many people here, you understand the logic behind opportunity cost when it comes to OA players. So I’m sure you can agree that it makes little to no sense for a championship level team to bring in Stonehouse.

Jake Therrien would be an infinitely better option. He’s undersized like Stonehouse, but he plays a much tougher and nasty game. His offensive game isn’t going to turn heads during the regular season but he’s the type of player who steps up offensively in the playoffs. The benefit of this is that it keeps his affordability more reasonable.

Therrien would be an ideal 3rd line player for a team like Oshawa that’s lacking depth and toughness.

 

[OMG67]

Stonehouse completely shriveled against Oshawa in the playoffs last year. If you want to blame that because he had a sore arm, how do you explain his no-show in the 2022-23 playoffs?

Unlike many people here, you understand the logic behind opportunity cost when it comes to OA players. So I’m sure you can agree that it makes little to no sense for a championship level team to bring in Stonehouse.

Jake Therrien would be an infinitely better option. He’s undersized like Stonehouse, but he plays a much tougher and nasty game. His offensive game isn’t going to turn heads during the regular season but he’s the type of player who steps up offensively in the playoffs. The benefit of this is that it keeps his affordability more reasonable.

Therrien would be an ideal 3rd line player for a team like Oshawa that’s lacking depth and toughness.

There is not much I can say if you discount an injured shoulder on a player that relies heavily on taking punishment int he dirty areas. And I did say why Stonehouse didn’t produce to regular season levels in the playoffs. It was because he was assigned a completely different role based on the 7 game series format. He wasn’t playing top 6 minutes. He actually wasn’t’ playing top 6 minutes in the last playoffs either. Just the way Cameron chose to deploy him. Sort of neutered him.

Keep in mind that the OA roster slot is used primarily to add an element you don’t have. There are a lot of teams and GM’s out there that woudl give their left nut for a player like Brad Marchand. I’ve always stated that Stonehouse’s game is not about toughness. He isn’t out there to throw people around. he is out there trying to get the opposition to throw him around. He is at his best when players start running around chasing him and trying to do stupid shit. He’s at his best when he hangs out in the crease and just stands there like a clown uncomfortably long after the whistle doing nothing other than waiting for a D-Man to crosscheck him or punch him. In a 7-game series format, by game 3-4, he is hated with a passion. Disciplined teams can let it go but it is tough because he never shuts up. Yap-yap-yap-yap non-stop. If a team can add that element, do not underestimate teams sacrificing a few goals to add what he brings.

When he is reassigned as expected this Friday, we will see if Ottawa holds him or deals him. If he is dealt, we will have our answer as to the value. I say a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th will be the return. That is average for impact OA’s that aren’t super elite.

 

[Donnie740]

There is not much I can say if you discount an injured shoulder on a player that relies heavily on taking punishment int he dirty areas. And I did say why Stonehouse didn’t produce to regular season levels in the playoffs. It was because he was assigned a completely different role based on the 7 game series format. He wasn’t playing top 6 minutes. He actually wasn’t’ playing top 6 minutes in the last playoffs either. Just the way Cameron chose to deploy him. Sort of neutered him.

Keep in mind that the OA roster slot is used primarily to add an element you don’t have. There are a lot of teams and GM’s out there that woudl give their left nut for a player like Brad Marchand. I’ve always stated that Stonehouse’s game is not about toughness. He isn’t out there to throw people around. he is out there trying to get the opposition to throw him around. He is at his best when players start running around chasing him and trying to do stupid shit. He’s at his best when he hangs out in the crease and just stands there like a clown uncomfortably long after the whistle doing nothing other than waiting for a D-Man to crosscheck him or punch him. In a 7-game series format, by game 3-4, he is hated with a passion. Disciplined teams can let it go but it is tough because he never shuts up. Yap-yap-yap-yap non-stop. If a team can add that element, do not underestimate teams sacrificing a few goals to add what he brings.

When he is reassigned as expected this Friday, we will see if Ottawa holds him or deals him. If he is dealt, we will have our answer as to the value. I say a 2nd, 3rd, and 5th will be the return. That is average for impact OA’s that aren’t super elite.

You won’t find anyone who appreciates agitators more than I do. I’d prefer to have at least two of them on my team - - in addition to two other tough guys who are always willing to fight. Basically, a pair of Darcy Tucker type players and a pair of Tie Domi type players.

And in terms of being an agitator, Jake Therrien is WAY better than Stonehouse could ever hope to be. Therrien can’t match his offence, but he’s far better at playing a physical game, giving out cheap shots and also being able to drop the gloves when required.

I would go all-in and bet my autographed game used Beckett Sennecke jersey that there’s not a chance in hell that any team will trade a 2nd, 3rd and 5th for Stonehouse. He’s nowhere close to being good enough to warrant a return like that.

 

[OMG67]

You won’t find anyone who appreciates agitators more than I do. I’d prefer to have at least two of them on my team - - in addition to two other tough guys who are always willing to fight. Basically, a pair of Darcy Tucker type players and a pair of Tie Domi type players.

And in terms of being an agitator, Jake Therrien is WAY better than Stonehouse could ever hope to be. Therrien can’t match his offence, but he’s far better at playing a physical game, giving out cheap shots and also being able to drop the gloves when required.

I would go all-in and bet my autographed game used Beckett Sennecke jersey that there’s not a chance in hell that any team will trade a 2nd, 3rd and 5th for Stonehouse. He’s nowhere close to being good enough to warrant a return like that.

And yet the Oilers signed him to an NHL Entry Level deal as a free agent 18 year old. I am not immune to the fact that NHL teams make mistakes when signing players but they were very keen on getting him under contract. So, there is at least one NHL GM that would disagree with you.

I’ve had the luxury of watching Stonehouse for three years. I believe you do understand his game. But where I think you underestimate his game is he also can skate at a pro level which means you have the versatility of placing him on any line. With Therrien, you don’t.

If Stonehouse goes to a contender, don’t bet your Senneke jersey. If a contender sources him, they will do so by paying the freight specifically because they want to add that element to their team. A contender isn’t going to add Stonehouse looking for a bargain. Peer, Maillet, Mancini, Kressler, Mayer, and Dubois all went for that last year. Any contending team looking to fill a specific gap that requires them to move to upgrade an existing OA will pay around that level. There are too many comparables.

 

[Donnie740]

And yet the Oilers signed him to an NHL Entry Level deal as a free agent 18 year old. I am not immune to the fact that NHL teams make mistakes when signing players but they were very keen on getting him under contract. So, there is at least one NHL GM that would disagree with you.

I’ve had the luxury of watching Stonehouse for three years. I believe you do understand his game. But where I think you underestimate his game is he also can skate at a pro level which means you have the versatility of placing him on any line. With Therrien, you don’t.

If Stonehouse goes to a contender, don’t bet your Senneke jersey. If a contender sources him, they will do so by paying the freight specifically because they want to add that element to their team. A contender isn’t going to add Stonehouse looking for a bargain. Peer, Maillet, Mancini, Kressler, Mayer, and Dubois all went for that last year. Any contending team looking to fill a specific gap that requires them to move to upgrade an existing OA will pay around that level. There are too many comparables.

I can understand your wishful thinking as an Ottawa fan hoping your team is able to trade Stonehouse pull off an Owen Sound level fleecing of someone.

Let’s think it through logically - - who are the realistic championship contenders this year? Oshawa, Brampton, Barrie, London, Kitchener, Windsor. The only realistic fit for Stonehouse is Brampton because he doesn’t offer any tangible upgrade on the OAs that the others currently have.

Forget about the Wakely return - - that’s never happening because Stonehouse isn’t anywhere remotely close to Wakely’s level.

A more reasonable comp would be the deal Oshawa made last year for Connor Lockhart. Similar chippy, agitator type player although Lockhart was superior offensively.

And Lockhart cost a 3rd and a 5th. That’s what you’re looking at for Stonehouse in a best case scenario because he’s just not good enough and there’s no real market for him.

 

[OMG67]

I can understand your wishful thinking as an Ottawa fan hoping your team is able to trade Stonehouse pull off an Owen Sound level fleecing of someone.

Let’s think it through logically - - who are the realistic championship contenders this year? Oshawa, Brampton, Barrie, London, Kitchener, Windsor. The only realistic fit for Stonehouse is Brampton because he doesn’t offer any tangible upgrade on the OAs that the others currently have.

Forget about the Wakely return - - that’s never happening because Stonehouse isn’t anywhere remotely close to Wakely’s level.

A more reasonable comp would be the deal Oshawa made last year for Connor Lockhart. Similar chippy, agitator type player although Lockhart was superior offensively.

And Lockhart cost a 3rd and a 5th. That’s what you’re looking at for Stonehouse in a best case scenario because he’s just not good enough and there’s no real market for him.

The team that acquires Stonehouse isn’t looking for a “better player.” They are looking for Stonehouse and what he brings to the table. People, yourself included, seem to always point to teams only looking to add scoring or defence. That is not the case. Sometimes they hold things like leadership at a premium. It is an element they are missing. So, they pay a premium for a player that has very strong leadership abilities.

These types of deals happen all the time.

With respect to your trade return estimates, you are selecting the situational discounts as comparables. That wouldn’t be accurate. I gave you a long list of players that all went for around a 2nd, 3rd, 4th last year at the deadline. You can look back at the database and see that those returns for OAs are the norm.

When you have a player like Lockhart that needed to be moved because of excess OAs prior to the November deadline and he's a player the Petes allowed to choose his destination and didn’t care about the return, just tried to make the payer happy, the return is different than deadline type trade returns. If Stonehouse doesn’t net a decent return, Ottawa keeps him and moves out Gerrior or MacKenzie. Not a big deal.

I cannot remember when an NHL signed player (skater) was traded for what is essentially a ball of soap chips and a half eaten protein bar. If Stonehouse is traded (and it is not certain that the 67’s will trade him), it won’t be for spare parts and middling picks.

 

[Donnie740]

The team that acquires Stonehouse isn’t looking for a “better player.” They are looking for Stonehouse and what he brings to the table. People, yourself included, seem to always point to teams only looking to add scoring or defence. That is not the case. Sometimes they hold things like leadership at a premium. It is an element they are missing. So, they pay a premium for a player that has very strong leadership abilities.

These types of deals happen all the time.

With respect to your trade return estimates, you are selecting the situational discounts as comparables. That wouldn’t be accurate. I gave you a long list of players that all went for around a 2nd, 3rd, 4th last year at the deadline. You can look back at the database and see that those returns for OAs are the norm.

When you have a player like Lockhart that needed to be moved because of excess OAs prior to the November deadline and he's a player the Petes allowed to choose his destination and didn’t care about the return, just tried to make the payer happy, the return is different than deadline type trade returns. If Stonehouse doesn’t net a decent return, Ottawa keeps him and moves out Gerrior or MacKenzie. Not a big deal.

I cannot remember when an NHL signed player (skater) was traded for what is essentially a ball of soap chips and a half eaten protein bar. If Stonehouse is traded (and it is not certain that the 67’s will trade him), it won’t be for spare parts and middling picks.

I’m curious to know which contending team you feel would be willing to give up a 2nd, 3rd and 5th for Stonehouse.

There’s ZERO possible chance the Hunters are going to make a foolish overpay. So that eliminates London.

There’s even less chance of Barrie acquiring Stonehouse and displacing Jelsma or Wigle after they already went out and got their preferred OA in Wakely. And especially since Barrie already has the ultimate agitator in Kashawn Aitcheson.

You seem to be massively overestimating what Stonehouse actually brings to the table. He’s certainly not a high end offensive playmaker or sniper. And he’s definitely not an intimidating physical presence. Essentially, he’s just a punching bag for opponents. And that’s not going to accomplish anything in the playoffs.

Case in point was the series against Oshawa last year. Ottawa was completely manhandled and physically dominated by Oshawa, just as I explained would happen before the series started.

 

[ScoutLife4]

No one is giving up a 2nd,3rd and 5th for an injured undersized OA winger right now.

 

[OMG67]

I’m curious to know which contending team you feel would be willing to give up a 2nd, 3rd and 5th for Stonehouse.

There’s ZERO possible chance the Hunters are going to make a foolish overpay. So that eliminates London.

There’s even less chance of Barrie acquiring Stonehouse and displacing Jelsma or Wigle after they already went out and got their preferred OA in Wakely. And especially since Barrie already has the ultimate agitator in Kashawn Aitcheson.

You seem to be massively overestimating what Stonehouse actually brings to the table. He’s certainly not a high end offensive playmaker or sniper. And he’s definitely not an intimidating physical presence. Essentially, he’s just a punching bag for opponents. And that’s not going to accomplish anything in the playoffs.

Case in point was the series against Oshawa last year. Ottawa was completely manhandled and physically dominated by Oshawa, just as I explained would happen before the series started.

What happened to Punnet in the London series? Why was he so ineffective?

 

[Donnie740]

What happened to Punnet in the London series? Why was he so ineffective?

The injuries to Punnett, Sennecke and Buckley certainly didn’t help but even if they were all 100% healthy, Oshawa was simply outclassed by London last year - - just like Ottawa was badly outclassed by Oshawa.