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Ovechkin Milestone Thread - Countdown to 894

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Hockey Outsider said:
It would be nice if Ovechkin gets to 50 this year, but consider:

1) He scored 32 goals in 48 games in 2013, and easily would have reached 50 if not for the lockout
2) He scored 48 goals in 69 team games (he missed one) in 2020, and easily would have reached 50 if not for COVID

I'm not even going to talk about 2018, where he scored 49 goals in a year that featured something like 20-25% less offense than the era that Gretzky and Bossy played in. (A rough rule of thumb is 50 goals today is equivalent to 60+ in the late 1970's to early 1990's).

Statistical trivia, by its definition, is taken at face value. In that sense, the numbers are what they are, and Ovechkin is going to do something special if he scores four more goals this year. But, by any reasonable metric, Ovechkin is already way ahead of Gretzky and Bossy in terms of era-adjusted 50 goal seasons (Howe might challenge him, but I'm pretty sure Ovechkin would still be ahead).
Click to expand...

In 2018 you can blame the NJD.
In the last game of the season they were down by 2 and didn't pull the goalie to not let Ovi score #50.

Well 2 months later Ovi won the Cup.
 
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Big Phil said:
I am not sure what the fuss is about. Ovechkin is 120 goals from breaking this. So either two 60 goal seasons and he gets it by spring of 2024. Not going to happen. Three of 40 and he gets it by 2025. Maybe if he stays healthy. Or 4 of 30 and he gets it when he is likely to retire in 2026. In other words, we have at least three years as the best scenario to see if he breaks this. Why all the worrying/gloating whatever you want to call it now? It might be broken in 2025. Maybe.
Click to expand...

I don't see this as a fuss, despite some people acting like it.

But it is interesting to see if Ovechkin would want to pick up the pace as much as he can. He's so close to getting it done, that he could end up short if he gets a career ending injury. In other words, I would expect him to rather aim for two 60 goal seasons rather than four 30 goals seasons.
 
ovikovy817 said:
In 2018 you can blame the NJD.
In the last game of the season they were down by 2 and didn't pull the goalie to not let Ovi score #50.

Well 2 months later Ovi won the Cup.
Click to expand...
As for me never regret about 2018 even before cup victory. Comeback from 69 pts and 33 g to 87/49 and 2-nd best scorer had just 44. It`s was best regular season since early days in NHL. After June 7 2018 it became a legendary season
 
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Total years in the top 15 in goal-scoring (1927-present)

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gordie Howe[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]

[TD]
17​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Phil Esposito[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maurice Richard[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobby Hull[/TD]

[TD]
13​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nels Stewart[/TD]

[TD]
13​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bernie Geoffrion[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Norm Ullman[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ted Lindsay[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Frank Mahovlich[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jean Beliveau[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Luc Robitaille[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

I'm going to jump the gun a bit and assume that Ovechkin hangs on to another spot somewhere in the top 15. Even before taking into account the fact that it was easier to earn a spot in the top 15 during the Original Six Era (and before that), Ovechkin still ranks higher than everyone except Mr. Hockey.

Total years in top top 15 in goal-scoring (players who spent most/all of their career post-expansion)

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]

[TD]
17​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Phil Esposito[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Luc Robitaille[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brett Hull[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wayne Gretzky[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mario Lemieux[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marcel Dionne[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jaromir Jagr[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mike Bossy[/TD]

[TD]
9​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ilya Kovalchuk[/TD]

[TD]
8​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
 
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powerstuck said:
I don't see this as a fuss, despite some people acting like it.

But it is interesting to see if Ovechkin would want to pick up the pace as much as he can. He's so close to getting it done, that he could end up short if he gets a career ending injury. In other words, I would expect him to rather aim for two 60 goal seasons rather than four 30 goals seasons.
Click to expand...
Great idea!
This would work for so many others too!
"Hey, why don't you just score, you know... MORE!?!"
it just might work ;)
 
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Hockey Outsider said:
Total years in the top 15 in goal-scoring (1927-present)

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Gordie Howe[/TD]

[TD]
21​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]

[TD]
17​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Phil Esposito[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maurice Richard[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bobby Hull[/TD]

[TD]
13​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nels Stewart[/TD]

[TD]
13​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bernie Geoffrion[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Norm Ullman[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ted Lindsay[/TD]

[TD]
12​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Frank Mahovlich[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jean Beliveau[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Luc Robitaille[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

I'm going to jump the gun a bit and assume that Ovechkin hangs on to another spot somewhere in the top 15. Even before taking into account the fact that it was easier to earn a spot in the top 15 during the Original Six Era (and before that), Ovechkin still ranks higher than everyone except Mr. Hockey.

Total years in top top 15 in goal-scoring (players who spent most/all of their career post-expansion)

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Player[/TD]
[TD]Total[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Ovechkin[/TD]

[TD]
17​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Phil Esposito[/TD]

[TD]
14​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Luc Robitaille[/TD]

[TD]
11​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Brett Hull[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Wayne Gretzky[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mario Lemieux[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marcel Dionne[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jaromir Jagr[/TD]

[TD]
10​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Mike Bossy[/TD]

[TD]
9​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ilya Kovalchuk[/TD]

[TD]
8​
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Click to expand...

While unlikely to happen for a variety of reasons, it's not completely crazy to imagine Ovechkin having 4 more seasons as a top-15 goal scorer. Typically that would mean scoring in the mid-30s... that seems reasonable for at least the next couple of years, and after that it would be a matter of whether he continues to age like an alien.

Of course, Top-15 in a 6-team league means being (on average) at least 3rd on your team in goal scoring. Top-15 in a 30-team league means being (on average) better than half of the #1 goal scorers in the league.

Assuming he has another couple of top-15s in him, he will at least make it very close with Howe, which is insane. If it gets close, it's hard not to give Ovechkin an unofficial 1st place because of the contextual differences.
 
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powerstuck said:
I don't see this as a fuss, despite some people acting like it.

But it is interesting to see if Ovechkin would want to pick up the pace as much as he can. He's so close to getting it done, that he could end up short if he gets a career ending injury. In other words, I would expect him to rather aim for two 60 goal seasons rather than four 30 goals seasons.
Click to expand...

He won't get two 60 goal seasons. He has one in his career, 14 years ago. His best bet is aiming at three 40 goal seasons. He could possibly do it if he doesn't get hurt. It all depends on the amount of miles he's had on his body too. That all depends if he even wants to finish his career in the NHL. But he won't get two sixty goal seasons. There has been just one since 2008. Probably one this year, but that's it. Ovechkin is not in his prime. His game isn't the same as it was before. He relies more than ever on a beauty pass to tee up a one-timer. When he got 65 back in the day he was all over the ice. He isn't anymore.
 
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andrjusha said:
60x2, 40x3, whats with obsession with round numbers, 45+40+35 will do just fine, dude has 51 goals in last 82 games, same as his career average pace and finds new ways to score goals.
The unknowns are injuries and "acts of god".
Click to expand...
Russian Machine Never Break.

No really this post is spot on. It's likely he hits the record in roughly 3 years. Spring of 2025.
 
WarriorofTime said:
I see no reason he can't play until 42. I dunno how much he wants to go play in the KHL. He's a competitive guy.
Click to expand...
I agree but I just figure that if he passes 894 during this contract, he'll walk away just to play a couple of seasons in the KHL.

I don't think he'll keep signing 1 year deals to play with the Caps at ages 41, 42, etc.
 
Short of injury I don't see how he doesn't get there. IMO It's less about breaking the record during his current contract and more about getting to a point where he feels it's worthwhile to continue chasing it. Hard to see him walking away from the league if he's only 20 goals away.

So instead of asking whether he can score 118 in the next 3 years, the question is more likely whether he can score 90-100, which makes the annual math much easier.

40 + 30 + 25 gets him in that range, which is only a 32 goal average.
 
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Yes, precisely. If he is at a level where he just needs to compile to get there, I don't see why he'd stop. If he falls to a level where he can only muster 15 goals while still being 75 away, then yes maybe he calls it quits before then.
 
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ovikovy817 said:
In 2018 you can blame the NJD.
In the last game of the season they were down by 2 and didn't pull the goalie to not let Ovi score #50.

Well 2 months later Ovi won the Cup.
Click to expand...
Yeah, the Devils obviously didn’t want Ovi to get his 50th :) Ovi did have a breakaway in the third though, but he couldn’t compete his hattrick.
 
Big Phil said:
He won't get two 60 goal seasons. He has one in his career, 14 years ago. His best bet is aiming at three 40 goal seasons. He could possibly do it if he doesn't get hurt. It all depends on the amount of miles he's had on his body too. That all depends if he even wants to finish his career in the NHL. But he won't get two sixty goal seasons. There has been just one since 2008. Probably one this year, but that's it. Ovechkin is not in his prime. His game isn't the same as it was before. He relies more than ever on a beauty pass to tee up a one-timer. When he got 65 back in the day he was all over the ice. He isn't anymore.
Click to expand...
Luckily his linemates are in their prime. Both Kuzy and Willy have been great, so Ovi is getting some support. Plus the PP has been much better lately.
 
tarheelhockey said:
While unlikely to happen for a variety of reasons, it's not completely crazy to imagine Ovechkin having 4 more seasons as a top-15 goal scorer. Typically that would mean scoring in the mid-30s... that seems reasonable for at least the next couple of years, and after that it would be a matter of whether he continues to age like an alien.

Of course, Top-15 in a 6-team league means being (on average) at least 3rd on your team in goal scoring. Top-15 in a 30-team league means being (on average) better than half of the #1 goal scorers in the league.

Assuming he has another couple of top-15s in him, he will at least make it very close with Howe, which is insane. If it gets close, it's hard not to give Ovechkin an unofficial 1st place because of the contextual differences.
Click to expand...
Another interesting one:

Ovechkin currently has 13 top-5 goalscoring finishes. Howe is #1 with 14 of them.

Ovechkin is currently 4th in the league this year (with a 4 goal lead over #5). So good chance of Ovechkin earning his 14th this year, which would be an NHL record (and once again, significantly more impressive given the larger size of the league).
 
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