Ovechkin Milestone Thread - Countdown to 894 (Continued)

[Greatzsky 99]

19th season with 30+ goals
2nd place Gartner 17
3rd place Jagr 15

 

[Chelis Chili]

THE GR8 CHASE IS CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN IN #NHLSTATS: LIVE UPDATES
Tuesday’s edition of #NHLStats: Live Updates featured notes on Alex Ovechkin and The Gr8 Chase as he scored to move within 12 of passing Wayne Gretzky for the all-time NHL goals record. Ovechkin extended his NHL record with a 19th career 30-goal season and registered his 823rd career point at Capital One Arena, which tied Stan Mikita (823 at Chicago Stadium) for the fifth most at a single venue in NHL history.

* Ovechkin (30-17—47 in 42 GP) owns a goals-per-game rate of 0.71 this season, which puts him on pace to pass Gretzky on April 2 (at CAR). Ovechkin (883-714—1,597 in 1,468 GP) owns a career average of 0.60 and that rate has him tracking to break the record on April 10 (vs. CAR).

sauce: https://media.nhl.com/public/news/18727

 

[895]

I think all of us knew he could do it for the past couple years . What was to be seen was would he do it scoring 20 goals a season all on the PP on a bottom feeder caps team or if he would maintain a high level of play on a good team. I am so very glad it’s the latter. It really boosts his legacy to me a lot.

Both he and Crosby are around the top 10 so I don’t think it’s enough to put him over anyone in particular but this season is an impressive feat no matter what.

 

[black99]

You should start a Canadian only league.

We would get tired of winning.

And i can't even join them, i am European, not Canadian.

 

[Andy]

The magnificent son of a bitch is gonna do it. You f***ing beaut.

un-f***ing-believable.

 

[Greatzsky 99]

THE GR8 CHASE IS CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN IN #NHLSTATS: LIVE UPDATES
Tuesday’s edition of #NHLStats: Live Updates featured notes on Alex Ovechkin and The Gr8 Chase as he scored to move within 12 of passing Wayne Gretzky for the all-time NHL goals record. Ovechkin extended his NHL record with a 19th career 30-goal season and registered his 823rd career point at Capital One Arena, which tied Stan Mikita (823 at Chicago Stadium) for the fifth most at a single venue in NHL history.

* Ovechkin (30-17—47 in 42 GP) owns a goals-per-game rate of 0.71 this season, which puts him on pace to pass Gretzky on April 2 (at CAR). Ovechkin (883-714—1,597 in 1,468 GP) owns a career average of 0.60 and that rate has him tracking to break the record on April 10 (vs. CAR).

sauce: https://media.nhl.com/public/news/18727

If he has 0.5 for rest of season he would pass Wayne in the last game of the s

 

[Summer Rose]

I hope he plays until 1000 goals. Like legitimately, scores his 1000th goal, and just leaves the ice and retires there, mid game. Kicker is, I don't think any of his team mates would be mad at it.

I liked to make this joke about his 895th goal. He scores #895, doesn't celebrate, and simply skates off the ice, then never plays another shift.

Obviously that won't happen, since it's pretty much inevitable that 895 is going to happen this season, and the Capitals are playoff bound. Still, either scenario would be hilarious.

 

[GRob83]

Ovi also by far has the most empty net goals. 64 to Gretzky's 56. And there was no 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 OT back in Gretzky's era. And no 2 line passes. Let's not act like there wasn't any disadvantages in that era compared to today's.

Ovechkin has played 99 fewer games, has 44 more game winning goals than Gretzky and over 100 more powerplay goals. Empty netters are typically not scored on the powerplay nor are they typically game winners.
Seasons leading the NHL in goals after the age of 26:
Gretzky = 0
Ovechkin = 7

19th season with 30+ goals
2nd place Gartner 17
3rd place Jagr 15

3 Capitals Legends

 

[Toby91ca]

Ovechkin has played 99 fewer games, has 44 more game winning goals than Gretzky and over 100 more powerplay goals. Empty netters are typically not scored on the powerplay nor are they typically game winners.
Seasons leading the NHL in goals after the age of 26:
Gretzky = 0
Ovechkin = 7

In terms of goals, there is a "what-if" with Gretzky. What if he didn't get hurt, what if the goals didn't dry up the 2nd half of his career, etc. People can always point to the high scoring 80s, but he obliterated everyone, including those that played there. He just didn't keep it up. Was it because of the hit from behind? Who knows, but it dried up. He still put up points, but didn't score a ton of goals.

There really is no arguments anymore other than Gretzky scoring more goals, so once that goes away, there is no argument anymore.

That said, where are you getting 99 fewer games?

 

[Summer Rose]

In terms of goals, there is there there is a "what-if" with Gretzky. What if he didn't get hurt, what if the goals didn't dry up the 2nd half of his career, etc. People can always point to the high scoring 80s, but he obliterated everyone, including those that played there. He just didn't keep it up. Was it because of the hit from behind? Who knows, but it dried up. He still put up points, but didn't score a ton of goals.

There really is no arguments anymore other than Gretzky scoring more goals, so once that goes away, there is no argument anymore.

That said, where are you getting 99 fewer games?

In fairness there's also an argument to be made in the "what if" department around Ovechkin losing games played because of the NHL's labor disputes. 04-05 would have been his rookie season. Assuming he played all 82 games of 12-13 (a big assumption, but barring an unlucky injury he'd probably have played at least 78), that's 34 more games he could have played. While it's highly unlikely he'd have cracked 40 as a rookie (and probably not even 30), that might be an extra 25-40 goals in his total from games that were cancelled because of lockouts, in which case he could have surpassed Gretzky as early as last season.

You have to play the hand you're dealt though, and he's going to break the record with it anyway though.

 

[GRob83]

In terms of goals, there is a "what-if" with Gretzky. What if he didn't get hurt, what if the goals didn't dry up the 2nd half of his career, etc. People can always point to the high scoring 80s, but he obliterated everyone, including those that played there. He just didn't keep it up. Was it because of the hit from behind? Who knows, but it dried up. He still put up points, but didn't score a ton of goals.

There really is no arguments anymore other than Gretzky scoring more goals, so once that goes away, there is no argument anymore.

That said, where are you getting 99 fewer games?

Hockey Reference but I didn't realize they added in the 80 WHA games for Gretzky. Good catch.

 

[GRob83]

In fairness there's also an argument to be made in the "what if" department around Ovechkin losing games played because of the NHL's labor disputes. 04-05 would have been his rookie season. Assuming he played all 82 games of 12-13 (a big assumption, but barring an unlucky injury he'd probably have played at least 78), that's 34 more games he could have played. While it's highly unlikely he'd have cracked 40 as a rookie (and probably not even 30), that might be an extra 25-40 goals in his total from games that were cancelled because of lockouts, in which case he could have surpassed Gretzky as early as last season.

You have to play the hand you're dealt though, and he's going to break the record with it anyway though.

Also, who among Ovechkins regular teammates past or present are penciled in as future Hall of Famers? Backstrom, maybe. Carlson, unlikely. That's it, that's the list. Gretzky was surrounded by Hall of Famers his entire career.

 

[Selanne00008]

I was worried that as he gets closer, you tend to grip the stick a bit tighter and the pace might fall off.
But, not with this legend, not with this record and not at this pace.

The odds it happens on a hat trick night or multi-goal game are probably high at this point.

I'm out here in Duck land and they play in about 7 or 8 games. I would Kill to be at the game he breaks the record, but unless he has a couple more hattricks up his sleeve, there's not enough games for it to happen out west.

 

[COHawk]

He's now second in goals for most ever in an age 39 season:

39-Year Old NHL Players - Regular Season Stats

39-year old NHL player stats. NHL player statistics segmented by age group.

www.quanthockey.com

#1 seems very attainable at the rate he is scoring

 

[Midnight Judges]

Im going to the Buffalo game. Ovie would have to pace for a goal per game from now until then for that to be the game.

My son has a foreign exchange student coming over from France. I’m taking them both to the game. That would be quite the memory for him.

Edit: 11 goals in 14 games. Dang that’s do-able!

 

[BallardEra]

 

[PM88RU]

I think all of us knew he could do it for the past couple years . What was to be seen was would he do it scoring 20 goals a season all on the PP on a bottom feeder caps team or if he would maintain a high level of play on a good team. I am so very glad it’s the latter. It really boosts his legacy to me a lot.

Both he and Crosby are around the top 10 so I don’t think it’s enough to put him over anyone in particular but this season is an impressive feat no matter what.

I really like the ranging of top4 and then 5-10 or 5-15. There are a lot of deserving guys after big4 and every one of them have reasons to be called nr.5. Just a matter of what you value more.

Ovi has cemented his belonging to that group, and Sid did too. Both are the greatest hockey players of that generation and are still productive near 40 year old.

We’re blessed to witness both of them.

As for Ovie, year to year the world keeps spinning and this man keeps scoring, no matter what. Age, injuries, retooling the roster, he still gets his ~50/year. Durable as machine, beyond amazing.

 

[Selanne00008]

Im going to the Buffalo game. Ovie would have to pace for a goal per game from now until then for that to be the game.

My son has a foreign exchange student coming over from France. I’m taking them both to the game. That would be quite the memory for him.

Edit: 11 goals in 14 games. Dang that’s do-able!

Back before I had two kids and I was confident he was going to pull this amazing feat off a few years ago, I swore I was going to fly around when he's within 2-3 goals and watch it live. I guess I still could, but I may have divorce papers waiting for me at home.

 

[Devil Dancer]

Im going to the Buffalo game. Ovie would have to pace for a goal per game from now until then for that to be the game.

My son has a foreign exchange student coming over from France. I’m taking them both to the game. That would be quite the memory for him.

Edit: 11 goals in 14 games. Dang that’s do-able!

I have tickets to that one too. It's not quite a g/g pace. There are 14 games before BUF comes to town, and best case scenario he'd go in with 894, so 11 goals in 14. That's potentially doable.

 

[potatowejj]

I really hope he breaks the record and/or gets to 900 in Washington.

 

[Fantomas]

Even the biggest believers thought Ovechkin was going to slowly creep toward the record before overtaking it, in the guise of a broken-down 20-goal scorer. But watch him now, still a premium goal scorer, still one of the best hockey players on earth and on pace to obliterate the record with a full year still left on his contract. And then the sky's the limit -- if Ovy wants to keep going, if the fire still burns, he can play for years into his 40s like Gordie Howe and maybe even get 1,000.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Im going to the Buffalo game. Ovie would have to pace for a goal per game from now until then for that to be the game.

My son has a foreign exchange student coming over from France. I’m taking them both to the game. That would be quite the memory for him.

Edit: 11 goals in 14 games. Dang that’s do-able!

I hope it works out for you. For what it's worth, assuming he doesn't miss any games, I forecast Ovechkin has about a 6% of tying Gretzky's record against Buffalo, and about a 3% chance that he'll break the record. (There's also about a 4% chance he'll already have broken the record before that). Granted, not amazing odds, but not bad for a single game five weeks away.

 

[BallardEra]

53 goals in his last 78 games at the age of 38/39

 

[Selanne00008]

If he wins another cup before his contract is up, and is at say, 929 goals. But, he's also still scoring at .5 g/pg pace i wonder if he does hang it up. like, what is there left to prove? Vs spending those precious years with family.

At this point, there's nearly zero doubt he could get to 1,000 goals if he chooses. And he wouldn't even limp to it. It's incredible.

 

[COHawk]

Remember when everyone thought his decline had begun when he only scored 33 goals in 2016-17. Ovi has scored 325 goals in 547 games since then. A pace of 48 goals per full season.