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Speculation: Ottawa Senators Cap Projections 25/26 and 26/27

HoweHullOrr said:
The article you attached was from 2 months ago. IIRC, Bettman was on television since then stating that he had no idea where those numbers were coming from. Something might have happened since then. I have no idea what will happen, and won’t try to guess.
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Bettman is the same guy that said the Thrashers weren't on the move, then a week later announced the Thrashers were moving.

What has changed since then is that Escrow payments have been dropped from 6% to zero for the remainder of the season, and players are expected to get everything they paid into Escrow back when they do the final accounting.

The thing we do know for sure though is for any climb in the cap beyond 5%, the NHL and NHLPA will need to come to an agreement as the MOU from 2020 set a max increase of 5% per year. So when Bettman says he has no idea where they got 97 from, it's likely at least partially true in that the NHL and NHLPA haven't yet bargained any increase beyond the 5% max dictated by the current MOU.

My guess is 97 comes from an estimate of the trailing two-year average HRR growth percentage, but that's pure speculation on my part.
 
GCK said:
I'm starting this thread for use as a location to post proposed Cap situations. I'll start with currently signed player for the next two years including the two buried 1 way contracts next year. I'm using conservative Upper Limit numbers of 95M and 100M.

Player2025/262026/27
Stutzle8,350,0008,350,000
Tkachuk8,205,7148,205,714
Norris7,950,0007,950,000
Batherson4,975,0004,975,000
Perron4,000,0000
Pinto3,750,0000
Amadio2,600,0002,600,000
Greig3,250,0003,250,000
Ostapchuk825,0000
Sanderson8,050,0008,050,000
Chabot8,000,0008,000,000
Zub4,600,0004,600,000
Jensen4,050,0004,050,000
Ullmark8,250,0008,250,000
Korpisalo1,000,0001,000,000
White875,000875,000
Total78,730,71466,105,714
Projected Cap95,000,000100,000,000
Projected Space16,269,28633,894,286
MacEwen775,0000
Sogaard775,0000
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Updated to reflect the error in Jensen row
 
Micklebot said:
Wow, 113.5 by 27-28 seems nuts to me. Three consecutive 8.5-9% increases when the MOU set 5% as a cap, and you wonder why there was some speculation of it potentially being as high as 97.
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Yeah, seeing why some teams will need an internal cap… probably gonna be quite an advantage for the big markets.
 
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PlayOn said:
Yeah, seeing why some teams will need an internal cap… probably gonna be quite an advantage for the big markets.
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Any player agent for a free agent is going to pushing for a nice increase for their client. Not sure how well we'll compete with large market, U.S. teams for free agents in this kind of market.

Bjornar Moxnes said:
Even if Perron remains on the team, if we sign Leevi to a friendly bridge deal, we can actually get a stud winger like Ehlers in UFA.
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So can a lot of teams. A rising tide floats all boats and big market U.S. teams will have less trouble ponying up the larger dollars for free agents.
 
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Big Muddy said:
Any player agent for a free agent is going to pushing for a nice increase for their client. Not sure how well we'll compete with large market, U.S. teams for free agents in this kind of market.


So can a lot of teams. A rising tide floats all boats and big market U.S. teams will have less trouble ponying up the larger dollars for free agents.
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well, there's multiple wingers on the market, and a Dane that's played entirely for Canadian teams his life might be more open to signing with another one, especially with the politics in the states. It doesn't have to be Ehlers specifically, but we do have the room to get a winger for Jimothy.
 
Big Muddy said:
Any player agent for a free agent is going to pushing for a nice increase for their client. Not sure how well we'll compete with large market, U.S. teams for free agents in this kind of market.


So can a lot of teams. A rising tide floats all boats and big market U.S. teams will have less trouble ponying up the larger dollars for free agents.
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Yeah it’s going to be a challenge. We’re gonna have to focus heavily on drafting and trading, which a lot of teams that win cups do anyway so it is what it is I guess.
 
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PlayOn said:
Yeah, seeing why some teams will need an internal cap… probably gonna be quite an advantage for the big markets.
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Also, at 95.5 next year, we're pretty much done before we start, a Giroux extension will eat up any space we have imo,
 
Micklebot said:
Also, at 95.5 next year, we're pretty much done before we start, a Giroux extension will eat up any space we have imo,
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Yup, especially if we want to leave room for deadline/in-season moves.

It’s probably why they’re exploring trading Norris, which I hope they don’t do. I don’t know if they can get Perron off the books but they should try so we can go find a winger somewhere that better fits our needs.
 
Bjornar Moxnes said:
well, there's multiple wingers on the market, and a Dane that's played entirely for Canadian teams his life might be more open to signing with another one, especially with the politics in the states. It doesn't have to be Ehlers specifically, but we do have the room to get a winger for Jimothy.
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All I was pointing out is that with a higher cap there’s potential, but lots of teams will have that potential as well. There’s the potential and then there’s the ability to capitalize on that potential. I don’t think it got any easier to land a big fish free agent even after the larger cap increase. In fact, it may have (probably) gotten harder.
 
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PlayOn said:
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Unless the league has a giant tv/streaming deal in it's back pocket to balance things, Mr. Bettman can kiss his precious Parity goodbye. Max a player can make is 20% of cap. Many teams will be running an internal cap of 95-100 million is my guess. Only a few teams will be able to run max cap. The others won't commit 15-20 mill on one player because they wouldn't be able to build a roster. We're right back to the first lock out.
 
I know a lot of people dislike Dorian around here, but him locking in some top guys (Brady, Stu, Sanderson, etc) with the cap going up to this extreme should really help Ottawa
 
Great news for the rich teams of the league, not great news for smaller market Canadian teams like us.

xVolchenkov said:
I know a lot of people dislike Dorian around here, but him locking in some top guys (Brady, Stu, Sanderson, etc) with the cap going up to this extreme should really help Ottawa
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Giving Dorion (or any GM really) credit for signing RFAs (who can't leave) is dumb.
 
DrEasy said:
Those are the realistic ones I found that could be equal or better than Giroux yet attainable.

Here's the list I used: Top 20 2025 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents - The Hockey Writers Editor's Choice Latest News, Analysis & More
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Sens of Anarchy said:
92.5 or 95 the cap in 2025/26

Hamonic replacement1000000
Kleven2000000
Matinpalo/JBD1000000
Giroux4000000
Gregor1000000
Cousins1000000
Highmore1000000
Merilainen1000000
Total12000000

78,730,714 + 12,000,000 = 90,730,714

1,769,286 Cap space at 92.5; add 2.5 million or 4,269,286 at 95

I used round numbers just to make it easier.. Those names can change somewhat but there is not a large amount of wiggle room at a 92.5 cap
2-3 could go a little higher some a little lower; at 95 there looks like there would be room to add
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Cap going to 95.5 so if we can use that as a bit of a guideline and we consider leaving 1m dry powder we would have just under 5m to sign someone factoring in a replacement for one of the 1m$ players above. (Assuming we keep Giroux at about 4m)

I can see some bottom 6 forward upgrades and maybe a bottom pair RD upgrade.
 
xVolchenkov said:
What a terrible take. The credit isn't for getting players to sign a contract, its the contract he got them to sign.
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Dorion didn't negotiate Stutzle and Sanderson down from 9-10M+ deals through the force of his personality and charm. The cap hits were clearly based largely on what comparable players signed for.

Nor did he sweet talk those guys into extending early. He presented the option of an 8 year extension to them prior to the conclusion of their ELCs, and they opted to take the 65-70M guaranteed over betting on themselves and potentially getting more, which was extremely fortunate for us, particularly in Stutzle's case.

Any GM could and would have signed them to those deals. It's not because of the competence of Pierre Dorion that we have those two guys (and others) locked up long-term at attractive cap hits, so it's weird to praise him as if he's the reason it happened. It's just the reality of RFA contracts.
 
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Hale The Villain said:
Dorion didn't negotiate Stutzle and Sanderson down from 9-10M+ deals through the force of his personality and charm. The cap hits were clearly based largely on what comparable players signed for.

Nor did he sweet talk those guys into extending early. He presented the option of an 8 year extension to them prior to the conclusion of their ELCs, and they opted to take the 65-70M guaranteed over betting on themselves and potentially getting more, which was extremely fortunate for us, particularly in Stutzle's case.

Any GM could and would have signed them to those deals. It's not because of the competence of Pierre Dorion that we have those two guys (and others) locked up long-term at attractive cap hits, so it's weird to praise him as if he's the reason it happened. It's just the reality of RFA contracts.
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F*** Dorion
 
The Stutzle, Tkachuk and Sanderson deals will be absolute sweetheart deals in a 113 million dollar cap environment.
 
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