Speculation: Ottawa can't be finished wheeling and dealing; can they?

[bert]

As far as us vs Montreal, I do think our number 1 C and number 1 D put us ahead(I'm not sure if Hutson or Reinbacher ends up as good as Sanderson), but they've done a good job rebuilding while not having traded any truly high end players for assets, We traded prime Karlsson, Stone and Duchene yet only Karlsson had a good return.




Montreal had nowhere near elite goaltending last year lol, what are you talking about?

Reinbacher and Hutson will never be Jake Sanderson.

Montreal has done the rebuild right but they have loaded up on wingers and middle pairing level d men and don't have a stud 1 C. Alot of that has to do with where they have picked. I actually think Hughes has done an amazing job but you gotta get lucky too. Clearly way better at his job than dorion. However I question if a team can be built this way and be successful. Lots of money spent on wingers isn't historically a way to win. Stud 1 C, Stud 1 D is what cup champions typically have.

Yes they did have great goaltending go look at saves above expected. They got dominated every game because they f***in sucked. They'll be better next year but so will Ottawa and goaltending for both teams should revert closer to the mean. If you flipped the goaltending last year there is probably a 20 point difference.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Sign Johansen. Who cares if he's not the same player "as he once was." I'm just tired of seeing the same team since the bubble and taxi squad with additions of Perron and Gregor and Amadio up front. I'm seeing MTL's top 6 and I have difficult time seeing how our top 5 since 2021 will be any different in beating these guys.

Johansen is either a) seriously injured and requires surgery or b) faking a serious injury to the point that he released a statement saying that he needs to have surgery

 

[Big Muddy]

Reinbacher and Hutson will never be Jake Sanderson.

Montreal has done the rebuild right but they have loaded up on wingers and middle pairing level d men and don't have a stud 1 C. Alot of that has to do with where they have picked. I actually think Hughes has done an amazing job but you gotta get lucky too. Clearly way better at his job than dorion. However I question if a team can be built this way and be successful. Lots of money spent on wingers isn't historically a way to win. Stud 1 C, Stud 1 D is what cup champions typically have.

Yes they did have great goaltending go look at saves above expected. They got dominated every game because they f***in sucked. They'll be better next year but so will Ottawa and goaltending for both teams should revert closer to the mean. If you flipped the goaltending last year there is probably a 20 point difference.

If improved goaltending results in a 20 point increase in the standings, that would be great for the Senators!

Posters here seem more conservative and reserved about next year though even with better goaltending from what I can tell.

It will be interesting to see how we do next year and how much improvement there will be. Beyond the obvious need for better goaltending, we also need to improve in the goal scoring dept. as well. We were 19th overall (3.05 goals/game) goals for per game last year.

 

[bert]

If improved goaltending results in a 20 point increase in the standings, that would be great for the Senators!

Posters here seem more conservative and reserved about next year though even with better goaltending from what I can tell.

It will be interesting to see how we do next year and how much improvement there will be. Beyond the obvious need for better goaltending, we also need to improve in the goal scoring dept. as well. We were 19th overall (3.05 goals/game) goals for per game last year.

I'm saying if Montreal had Ottawas goaltending and Ottawa had Montreals there would have been a 20 point difference between the two teams last year. Not that I think ottawas will improve by 20 points. Just that they suck and got saved by good goaltending and Ottawa would have benefited having theirs.

 

[Big Muddy]

I'm saying if Montreal had Ottawas goaltending and Ottawa had Montreals there would have been a 20 point difference between the two teams last year. Not that I think ottawas will improve by 20 points. Just that they suck and got saved by good goaltending and Ottawa would have benefited having theirs.

Yes, I did understand that was what you were saying in your post. My apologies for creating confusion with my post. I was trying to figure out how to best make the point, and had hoped that the word “IF” at the beginning of my sentence would suffice. I was just saying “IF” there was a 20 point improvement because of goaltending independent of that point you made in your post.

I guess my interest is twofold:

* How much improvement in the standings will there be next year?

* What are the expectations amongst the Sens HF community?

 

[Micklebot]

Yes, I did understand that was what you were saying in your post. My apologies for creating confusion with my post. I was trying to figure out how to best make the point, and had hoped that the word “IF” at the beginning of my sentence would suffice. I was just saying “IF” there was a 20 point improvement because of goaltending independent of that point you made in your post.

I guess my interest is twofold:

* How much improvement in the standings will there be next year?

* What are the expectations amongst the Sens HF community?

It's certainly an interesting question.

goaltending alone should be a big factor. In a vacuum, getting the .897 team sv% mtl had would improve our goals against by ~30 goals. Does that create more trust in the system, and get the players pushing in the same direction?

I think a 10 pts bump from goaltending alone is realistic given the low bar we've started with. That alone propels us into being a bubble team, right there fighting with the Pens, Det, Wash and the Flyers for that final wildcard spot.

 

[bert]

Johansen is either a) seriously injured and requires surgery or b) faking a serious injury to the point that he released a statement saying that he needs to have surgery

Plus he has been jettisoned by 3 teams in one calendar year. This seems like something Dorion would do.

 

[Masked]

Plus he has been jettisoned by 3 teams in one calendar year. This seems like something Dorion would do.

TBF, even Dorion would steer clear of him.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Plus he has been jettisoned by 3 teams in one calendar year. This seems like something Dorion would do.

Yeah thats the obvious issue, but it goes beyond that. He is literally involved in a legal battle where his entire defence relies on him being significantly injured and needing surgery. Hard to find a worse fit than him

 

[bert]

TBF, even Dorion would steer clear of him.

hmm maybe but if he got enough hugs or high fives he may have considered it.

 

[Big Muddy]

It's certainly an interesting question.

goaltending alone should be a big factor. In a vacuum, getting the .897 team sv% mtl had would improve our goals against by ~30 goals. Does that create more trust in the system, and get the players pushing in the same direction?

I think a 10 pts bump from goaltending alone is realistic given the low bar we've started with. That alone propels us into being a bubble team, right there fighting with the Pens, Det, Wash and the Flyers for that final wildcard spot.

With 10 more points, we’d end up with 88 points and out of the playoffs.

Goaltending was often discussed as the main, big problem last year. Also, we also talk about other improvements internally such as coaching. So, is a 88 point projection actually quite conservative?

 

[Micklebot]

With 10 more points, we’d end up with 88 points and out of the playoffs.

Goaltending was often discussed as the main, big problem last year. Also, we also talk about other improvements internally such as coaching. So, is a 88 point projection actually quite conservative?

Yes, out of the playoffs, but within 3 pts of the last spot. If goaltending is the only change, then we are out of luck, but it wasn't the only change. We changed coaches, we balanced the D, we added depth, particularly if Norris is healthy, Pinto is here all seasons, ect.

But, we don't improve in a vacuum either, some other teams improved too and some likely regressed. If you're asking for my projection, it's around 95 pts. I think we could get as high as 105 but we'd have to be really healthy, and the team would have to figure out Green's system fairly fast.

 

[Big Muddy]

Yes, out of the playoffs, but within 3 pts of the last spot. If goaltending is the only change, then we are out of luck, but it wasn't the only change. We changed coaches, we balanced the D, we added depth, particularly if Norris is healthy, Pinto is here all seasons, ect.

But, we don't improve in a vacuum either, some other teams improved too and some likely regressed. If you're asking for my projection, it's around 95 pts. I think we could get as high as 105 but we'd have to be really healthy, and the team would have to figure out Green's system fairly fast.

95 points would be good and should put us into the playoffs. Washington had 91 points last year and the last wild card spot I think.

I guess it's kind of interesting to guess where we’ll end up and compare to the expectations of other posters in here. In addition to the Ullmark addition, there’s been other changes, so it makes it more difficult to predict.

 

[bicboi64]

Scandella seems like he could be a good bottom pair replacement level d man and he is without a contract. Id like them to bring a few guys to camp TBH. If Hamonic cant play what do they do with him? Job in the organization and please retire?...

Scandella has some nice size to him as well and can skate better than Hamonic. Would be a solid signing

 

[LiseL]

f*** the players at this point we don't need any trades it'about developping these guys into winners. Wonder if Green suck as f*** at the helm of this team early in the season , what's the solution to fix that. We can blame players again but someone have to make them better player by having a structure that use their abilities like every good team on the league.Most of the win we get last 3 years were by individual efforts and not steady teamplay. No need to look for players for the next few years at this point with a barren prospect pool and no first rounder probably this year. It all about the big guns we have and making a structure/system to win games with them.

Based on the articles I've read, it seems some of Green's strengths are getting the most out of players, giving them roles they are suited for and holding them accountable. If that's the case, then we should see improvement in play this upcoming season.

 

[Xspyrit]

You can have Suzuki and Slafkovsky I'll take Stutzle and Tkachuk. So will anyone that isn't a Montreal Canadiens fan. Stutzle had 39 and 90 as a 20 year old. He was clearly injured all season last year. Demidov has alot to prove. You're buying into the hype train. He played in the equivalent of a tier 2 Jr a league last year. He clearly has talent but anointing him a super star... He fell to 5 for a reason. There's risk.

And who says I don't have the same opinion? I mean, you visit the polls section on the main boards, you have seen my posts over there... so where are you going with these posts on the Sens board? You don't think I am the same poster? lol you have seen me "try to defend" Ottawa over there multiple times

Of course there's a hype train (like there was with Ottawa, albeit much smaller) but I mean, you have been around long enough to know that I don't function like that. I have been projecting prospects for decades and it is clear that the Habs have an incredible prospect pool, exactly like we had after the 2020 draft. Of course there's risk with Demidov but he was seen as clearly the 2nd best talent in his draft and Habs were lucky he fell to them. Luckily they didn't also get Mitchkov when they could

Offseason has proven yet again skill wingers are the easiest asset to aquire in hockey.

Secondly perron is quite easily ottawas 7th or 8th forward. Thirdly Montreal has no one on their third line as good as him or Greig. You wanna talk about depth? Montreal has none and worse top end talent.

Stutzle vs Suzuki
Tkachuk vs Slafkovsky
Batherson vs Laine
Norris vs Dach
Giroux vs Caufield
Perron vs Newhook
Pinto vs Dvorak
Greig vs Roy
Amadio vs Anderson

The comparison is still favorable for us but in the next few years, they are going to replace guys like Anderson, Dvorak and maybe Dach with guys like Demidov, Hage, Beck, Kapanen, etc. Problem is that we don't have any talent to insert after Giroux and Perron are done. Halliday or Ostapchuk might replace Amadio and that's about it.

You've also hi jacked a thread that was talking about next season not the future.

lol no, look at the train of posts... post #53, you were quoting someone else talking about Montreal. The problem I have is I think many posters are puting their heads in the sand about them because it would be "impossible and ridiculous" to think that they could pass us. Well, my opinion is that it's happening right now. What did you think would happen having Dorion for that long? I have been calling that for years.

If you're gonna be this Montreal biased just cheer for them you already live there. You've also provided 0 context to last season. Ottawa had league worst goaltending. Montreals over achieved. Every metric out there shows it.

No idea what Dorion has to do with my post I dispise him and his work. You're having an argument with your self.

I am not biased towards Montreal, sorry if I am not being an homer I guess. AFAIK, goaltending is part of a team and the end result is that they were only 2 pts behind us so IMO we should shut the hell up before giving up lessons to any NHL team. We are in a select group with the Wings and Sabres now.

Only homerism could make someone tell a 30+ years Sens fan IN MONTREAL to go cheer for them. I mean, Sens are already badly outnumbered everywhere, including in their own rink vs certain teams. I don't know, I would expect people from Ottawa to actually appreciate out-of-town fans a little bit more.

You can continue to put your head in the sand all you want but nobody is FORCED to do the same. You initially said to the other poster "You're worried about Montreals top 6? That has Kirby Dach and Newhook in it?" so of course I am going to point out how bad this opinion is because we are a team that has Perron (36 y/o), Giroux (36 y/o) and Josh Norris (58 games, 33 pts in the last 2 seasons) in it...


EDIT : so this is one of my posts from June :

Sens vs Habs Under 30

Sens: Tkachuk Stutzle Batherson Norris Pinto Chabot Sanderson Zub Habs: Suzuki Caufield Salfkovsky Dach Newhook Roy Hutson Ghule Mallioux

forums.hfboards.com

So funny, getting called a Sens homer on the main boards and a Habs lover or Sens hater on the Sens board... I feel like if you are not BIASED like everybody, you are marginal in the world today... I mean even more than before

 

[Stylizer1]

Reinbacher and Hutson will never be Jake Sanderson.

Montreal has done the rebuild right but they have loaded up on wingers and middle pairing level d men and don't have a stud 1 C. Alot of that has to do with where they have picked. I actually think Hughes has done an amazing job but you gotta get lucky too. Clearly way better at his job than dorion. However I question if a team can be built this way and be successful. Lots of money spent on wingers isn't historically a way to win. Stud 1 C, Stud 1 D is what cup champions typically have.

Yes they did have great goaltending go look at saves above expected. They got dominated every game because they f***in sucked. They'll be better next year but so will Ottawa and goaltending for both teams should revert closer to the mean. If you flipped the goaltending last year there is probably a 20 point difference.

Dam, I think we've found our replacement for Sens broadcasts.

 

[bert]

And who says I don't have the same opinion? I mean, you visit the polls section on the main boards, you have seen my posts over there... so where are you going with these posts on the Sens board? You don't think I am the same poster? lol you have seen me "try to defend" Ottawa over there multiple times

Of course there's a hype train (like there was with Ottawa, albeit much smaller) but I mean, you have been around long enough to know that I don't function like that. I have been projecting prospects for decades and it is clear that the Habs have an incredible prospect pool, exactly like we had after the 2020 draft. Of course there's risk with Demidov but he was seen as clearly the 2nd best talent in his draft and Habs were lucky he fell to them. Luckily they didn't also get Mitchkov when they could



Stutzle vs Suzuki
Tkachuk vs Slafkovsky
Batherson vs Laine
Norris vs Dach
Giroux vs Caufield
Perron vs Newhook
Pinto vs Dvorak
Greig vs Roy
Amadio vs Anderson

The comparison is still favorable for us but in the next few years, they are going to replace guys like Anderson, Dvorak and maybe Dach with guys like Demidov, Hage, Beck, Kapanen, etc. Problem is that we don't have any talent to insert after Giroux and Perron are done. Halliday or Ostapchuk might replace Amadio and that's about it.



lol no, look at the train of posts... post #53, you were quoting someone else talking about Montreal. The problem I have is I think many posters are puting their heads in the sand about them because it would be "impossible and ridiculous" to think that they could pass us. Well, my opinion is that it's happening right now. What did you think would happen having Dorion for that long? I have been calling that for years.



I am not biased towards Montreal, sorry if I am not being an homer I guess. AFAIK, goaltending is part of a team and the end result is that they were only 2 pts behind us so IMO we should shut the hell up before giving up lessons to any NHL team. We are in a select group with the Wings and Sabres now.

Only homerism could make someone tell a 30+ years Sens fan IN MONTREAL to go cheer for them. I mean, Sens are already badly outnumbered everywhere, including in their own rink vs certain teams. I don't know, I would expect people from Ottawa to actually appreciate out-of-town fans a little bit more.

You can continue to put your head in the sand all you want but nobody is FORCED to do the same. You initially said to the other poster "You're worried about Montreals top 6? That has Kirby Dach and Newhook in it?" so of course I am going to point out how bad this opinion is because we are a team that has Perron (36 y/o), Giroux (36 y/o) and Josh Norris (58 games, 33 pts in the last 2 seasons) in it...


EDIT : so this is one of my posts from June :

Sens vs Habs Under 30

Sens: Tkachuk Stutzle Batherson Norris Pinto Chabot Sanderson Zub Habs: Suzuki Caufield Salfkovsky Dach Newhook Roy Hutson Ghule Mallioux

forums.hfboards.com

So funny, getting called a Sens homer on the main boards and a Habs lover or Sens hater on the Sens board... I feel like if you are not BIASED like everybody, you are marginal in the world today... I mean even more than before

Alot to type to end up saying the exact same thing. Ill repeat Perron is not in Ottawas top 6. Pinto is a much better player and likely the one you compare to Dach then Norris lines up with Newhook. Every single player Ottawa has is better 1 vs 1. So no I'm not worried about Montreal at this point. If the future maybe but certainly not next year.

 

[Loach]

Alot to type to end up saying the exact same thing. Ill repeat Perron is not in Ottawas top 6. Pinto is a much better player and likely the one you compare to Dach then Norris lines up with Newhook. Every single player Ottawa has is better 1 vs 1. So no I'm not worried about Montreal at this point. If the future maybe but certainly not next year.

Between a structured organization, coaching staff, goalie, balanced forward lines and defence pairings, having Pinto all season, Norris playing the whole year even if it's a 50 point season, a bit of maturation from the younger players, some normal injuries instead of what we normaly get we should be Ok. All these are little things individualy, put together it equals a significant change. I think on 3 road trips we went 0-5, 0-5, 0-4. If they won half of those, a wild card is right there. With all of the above it's not out of the question. If they start believing in training camp and get consistent it could be a fun year.

 

[SlyDawg]

I think we're done.

It might be maybe a PTO to challenge some of the bottom six or bottom pairing but I don't think it's going to be something pretty massive.

With the little amount of cap room left on the team, I think it'll stay conservative as Staios will be in a mode of "Prove it to me now" in terms to the core.

Let's be frank: the core needs to step up. No matter what accolades they have had in the past, Staios is not beholden to any one of them and last year, it was an eye opening experience as to where the team is. Now, with one year in their belt, the management team will be ready to really dissect and move pieces that may not work in the vision they're doing.

You saw it in the draft: Staios has a type: Big people. You don't teach big, but you can teach skill and how to play. That's how he's going to approach this so people who aren't necessarily to his style that he wants to build, he'll be willing to ship.

Brady and Timmy are probably safe for the near future but I wouldn't count out anyone else, truth be told. Obviously, Ullmark is a non factor but that could change come another dead season and him saying he's not interested in resigning.

This is kind of, in my view, the make or break of this team, this year. If they scuttle with a new coaching staff and the fact that the new coach was brought in to make people accountable, we're going to see people that we have grown to think as core be shipped out and the team be revamped on the fly pretty drastically.

I think they have a recipe right now to challenge for a playoff spot. A healthy Norris and an 82 game Pinto, and add a, hopefully, much better goaltending tandem, and you should be able to see a rise in those stats.

But no one is staying still and people behind us are starting to breathe in some life to move forward as well. So this is why I think this isn't the year for big splashy moves unless something major happens and a huge leap is had. Otherwise, still go with what you have and have them prove to you they should stay together.

 

[Loach]

I think we're done.

It might be maybe a PTO to challenge some of the bottom six or bottom pairing but I don't think it's going to be something pretty massive.

With the little amount of cap room left on the team, I think it'll stay conservative as Staios will be in a mode of "Prove it to me now" in terms to the core.

Let's be frank: the core needs to step up. No matter what accolades they have had in the past, Staios is not beholden to any one of them and last year, it was an eye opening experience as to where the team is. Now, with one year in their belt, the management team will be ready to really dissect and move pieces that may not work in the vision they're doing.

You saw it in the draft: Staios has a type: Big people. You don't teach big, but you can teach skill and how to play. That's how he's going to approach this so people who aren't necessarily to his style that he wants to build, he'll be willing to ship.

Brady and Timmy are probably safe for the near future but I wouldn't count out anyone else, truth be told. Obviously, Ullmark is a non factor but that could change come another dead season and him saying he's not interested in resigning.

This is kind of, in my view, the make or break of this team, this year. If they scuttle with a new coaching staff and the fact that the new coach was brought in to make people accountable, we're going to see people that we have grown to think as core be shipped out and the team be revamped on the fly pretty drastically.

I think they have a recipe right now to challenge for a playoff spot. A healthy Norris and an 82 game Pinto, and add a, hopefully, much better goaltending tandem, and you should be able to see a rise in those stats.

But no one is staying still and people behind us are starting to breathe in some life to move forward as well. So this is why I think this isn't the year for big splashy moves unless something major happens and a huge leap is had. Otherwise, still go with what you have and have them prove to you they should stay together.

More players are safe than that. Amateur scouting will change, one draft isn't enough to judge. Ullmark is a factor. No cap for splashy moves.

 

[TheNewEra]

TBF, even Dorion would steer clear of him.

for a week, then he would trade a 2nd for him

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

We need to wait for Harmonic to "fail" his physical, and then we will jump on a veteran defenseman from a team that either needs to clear cap to sign an RFA, or has waiver issues.

If Harmonic goes to MacArthur Cove, then we can acquire a defenseman in the low 2M range and roll with a 22 player roster. Capwages has us with 300k and a 23 player roster. Hamonic gone is 1.1M out, and lowering the roster by 1 player is another 800k out for a total of roughly 2.2M that we could spend on a defenseman.

The other possibility would be if Hamonic consents to us burying him in the AHL under the condition that he doesn't have to report. The only way this would happen is if Hamonic is mentally done with the NHL and would rather get paid to go home than have to travel all year to sit in the press box.

 

[SensFanInMTL]

Johansen is either a) seriously injured and requires surgery or b) faking a serious injury to the point that he released a statement saying that he needs to have surgery

Wasn't aware, thanks for this. I'm just extremely desperate for a change. I love the Ullmark deal, but it will take far more than just he, Gregor, Amadio and Perron to seriously contend this year.

 

[TheNewEra]

Wasn't aware, thanks for this. I'm just extremely desperate for a change. I love the Ullmark deal, but it will take far more than just he, Gregor, Amadio and Perron to seriously contend this year.

so heres the thing, if you are talking stanley cup contenders or even eastern conference semi finals then yes it will take more.

That being said, we cant run before we walk. Have to target playoffs first. We were 13 points back of wild card. So we need that at minimum. Even if Ullmark goes to his career low of a 905 sv% that would be a significant improvement record wise. Im talking 8-10 points. Also im sure psychologically it would work well for the players knowing their goalie can make a save but thats hard to quantify.

Besides the regular progression and regression that is expected from the team we have some pros and question marks to look at:

1. Pinto is there to start the year
2. No Korpisolo
3. Have more forward depth

Question marks
1. Is Jensen as good as he considered defensively and can he jell with chabot
2. Does Norris' shoulder hold up
3. Can JBD be a competent dman or are we going to see a lot of Hamonic
4. Overall team defense

I think Ullmark and a full season of Pinto being added to the team puts us in that 86-88 point range. That is still shy of a playoff spot. The teams expected growth and some positive answers to those big question marks will put us over that bench mark.

In summary start with playoffs before we talk contention. Even though we are in our FYOUS