So the NHL no longer drafts goalies is tht what you are saying. NAH you have to have the young players int eh game sorry I disagree.
Not if almost all teams have an OA starter. Teams will likely have three in the chain. They will have the starter 19/20 year old which isn’t all that much different than now. The main difference is if the OA doesn’t count, there is no value decision required. It gives the goalies and NHL teams that extra year to allow the goalie to keep developing.
So, if most to all teams have an OA goalie, how does the 17 year old play? The OA graduates and then the 17 year old becomes the starter at 18 against OA’s across the league? Won’t happen. The only goalies that would play at 17 are the elite goalies.
This is a somewhat similar conversation to the 3 Import conversation. You have to build that perpetual cycle and stay on cycle as close as possible. You still draft the 16 year old goalie but only the absolute best would enter the league at 17 as the backup. I can see floating a 3rd goalie in and out to give them some seasoning. But, the only way the OA exemption for OA goalies works is when you have an 18/19 year old backup behind the 19/20 year old starter. A 17/20 backup/starter wouldn’t work. It breaks continuity.
The NHL drafts goalies after their 17yo season right now. It is RARE to have a starter as a 17 year old. NHL teams draft goalies mostly based on attributes. It really is a crap shoot at best. That wouldn’t change. There will always be that one guy like Ivankovic that serves as the exception. Even Nelson as a 17 year old this year is somewhat of an exception. He had an elite 16 year old season in Tier II. That is sooooo rare. Statistically speaking, him and MacK were pretty much side by side. I was REALLY impressed with Nelson’s rookie season. But, again, that is more the exception than the rule. If he were 1”-2” taller, I think he’d be relatively high on the draft lists but at 6’1”, it will be a little more difficult. NHL teams like that 6’3” height and bigger.
Anyway, first we need to see whether the rule changes. Then we need to see if the goalies stick around longer across the leagues. THEN, we would see if the age distribution of goalies would change and line up how I predict. I mean, if it does line up like I predict, there is no reason to make the rule change. If you aren’t starting an OA, then you are using one to be the backup. What good is that? It is even worse under your scenario. If you have a 19 year old starter and a 20 year old backup, where does even the 18 year old fit in?
Personally, I’d like to see goalies drafted after their 18yo season. That gives them three years in junior before NHL teams need to make the decision.