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Ottawa 67's 2023-24 Off-Season Thread (Part 1)

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OMG67 said:
Admittedly, I am looking at this from the glass half full perspective. Beast is looking at it from the glass half empty perspective. We’ve both had the same stance since about November.

Calling Ottawa a 5th place team is disingenuous. T
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IF I knew in 1980 what I know now, I would be a billionaire.
IF the dog had not stopped in the middle of the Queensway

IF THE MAPLE LAFFS actually could get their players to play in the playoffs, they would have a Stanley Cup ring.
My point is that POMG67 you have a lot of IF in your plan.


If a team finishes in 5th place, do you call it THEY ALMOST HAD FIRST, or do you call it a 5th-place team?

I started the season with the understanding that time had caught up with the 67's and they need a couple of years to get not just draft picks but draft picks that are in the better level of players.

I have nothing against the team other than the fact that they just do not have the players to be a great team. Pinelli Kressler and ? is not a #1 line just as Pinelli Gardiner was not.

There is no second line that can score and take pressure off the first line. NEVER WAS

The only reason we were so good was that the rest of the league took a while for teams to get their act together.


dRAFTING 10TH is still better than drafting 15th You have more assets and a better selection to choose from.
 
Ottawa is a .585 team right now. Last year that would have comfortably been 4th place in the conference with separation between 3rd and 5th (both conferences actually). This year is a little different, currently it puts you in 6th in the conference but it's tight with room to move upwards. However, at the end of the day you are competing against the other teams, and if 5 other teams finish above you then you are 6th. There is nothing disingenuous about that.
 
beastintheeast said:
IF I knew in 1980 what I know now, I would be a billionaire.
IF the dog had not stopped in the middle of the Queensway

IF THE MAPLE LAFFS actually could get their players to play in the playoffs, they would have a Stanley Cup ring.
My point is that POMG67 you have a lot of IF in your plan.


If a team finishes in 5th place, do you call it THEY ALMOST HAD FIRST, or do you call it a 5th-place team?

I started the season with the understanding that time had caught up with the 67's and they need a couple of years to get not just draft picks but draft picks that are in the better level of players.

I have nothing against the team other than the fact that they just do not have the players to be a great team. Pinelli Kressler and ? is not a #1 line just as Pinelli Gardiner was not.

There is no second line that can score and take pressure off the first line. NEVER WAS

The only reason we were so good was that the rest of the league took a while for teams to get their act together.


dRAFTING 10TH is still better than drafting 15th You have more assets and a better selection to choose from.
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“Considering the teams they are bunched up with, I think they will likley finish 5th place,” is a lot different than saying they are a “5th place team.” Saying they are a 5th place team insinuates they cannot be a 4th place team or a 3rd place team. It insinuates they are not capable. Under the circumstances, that is not true. It is disingenuous to say that.

When I make an argument, I place logical reasoning behind it. I pull out supporting information. I balance that information and come to a conclusion. The conclusion right now is the 67’s are in 6th place in the conference. They are 7 points back of Brantford. They hold one game in hand. They have a relatively easy schedule. They play Brantford twice. IF IF IF they beat Brantford the two games they play, they are “likely” to win the division considering the balance of the schedules Ottawa, Oshawa, and Brantford has.

If Ottawa beats Brantford those two games, they will likely finish the season with 84-87 points. Each one of those point totals in that range line up with a potential division win. The two losses Brantford would have to Ottawa in that scenario, gives them a max of 88 points. They are limping terribly right now. They have a tough schedule. It is unlikely they win their remaining games. This is why I feel 85 points is the marker. Oshawa can finish with 89 points. But, their schedule is tough. They have Missy, Brantford, Sudburyx2 and Kitchener plus two easy games. It is not conceivable they run that schedule. If they run that schedule, they win the division but they also take points away from those teams which opens the door for Ottawa to finish in the 3rd seed. That makes it even more difficult to consider Ottawa a 5th place team.

Ottawa needs to win the two Brantford games. I still feel like the final game of the season will be meaningful for the division. It is possible that the Sudbury Oshawa game to end the season is also meaningful. But from the perspective of Ottawa vs Brantford as the true division winner battle, that last game will have meaning.
 
ScoutLife4 said:
This might be the easiest 100$ ever made.

I feel like the big hole is @OMG67 hopes and dreams for Ottawa is they always surround all the other teams ahead losing several games.

Oshawa and Brantford are not going to roll over and let Ottawa pass them.
Ottawa is 7 pts out with 9 games remaining. Finishing 3rd in the division is likely the case.
I think its just a matter if they jump up to 5th in the conference or not now.

Oshawa's schedule which may look strong to finish the season isn't to bad considering Sudbury is without 2 top players. -Their travel Schedule isn't to bad either with just the one big travel day to Sudbury. -I feel like now that Ben Danford is back you will see this team finish very strong and maybe even pass Brantford to win the division.
Oshawa has won 5 straight since being humiliated in Ottawa Feb 23rd.

I wouldn't be overly shocked to see Brantford head into the playoff in a little bit of a slump if you look at their schedule its likely the toughest of the 3.

There is also the Steelheads who no one is really talking about that has the goaltending to steal games and is only 5 pts out of first in the east.
Does anyone know why Porter Martone didn't play yesterday?
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I cannot see Oshawa going 7-0 to finish the season with that schedule. They’ve been inconsistent all year. You can point to that five game stretch or I could point to the previous five game stretch where they were 0-5 between Feb 6th and 16th. Five game stretches as a sample size aren’t really meaningful.

Oshawa pretty much needs to beat Brantford tomorrow. If they do, that opens the door for Ottawa. If they don’t win, they pretty much eliminate their chances. I can’t see them going 6-0 to finish the season after losing to Brantford. That is a tough schedule.

Ottawa is in every game. It is rare they lose by more than a goal. They have a lot of soft games left. They do need to win the Brantford games without a doubt. I don’t think there is any wiggle room there. I really feel that is what it will come down to. IMO, Ottawa should compile 79 points with game results still required for Brantford x2, Missy and Kingston. They win the two Brantford games, they are at 83 points. They win one of the Kingston or Missy games, that is 85 points. If Ottawa gives points away to the likes of Peterborough, Barrie, or Niagara, I will be surprised. Even you have to admit it would be surprising if Ottawa were to lose those games. Those teams are poor right now. Barrie has been ok but are very beatable. They are an 8th place team for a reason.

Brantford is hobbling along riding a miracle wave. I think the wave finally crashed yesterday. I think they will stumble a bit down the stretch unless they get those guys back. If Sobolev misses more games, they are screwed. You can only win so many games with spit and duct tape.

This isn’t as easy as looking at the standings right now. A lot will change between now and the end of the season. Sudbury is likely to falter a bit as well (as you mentioned). This could end up being as little as 4 points between 1st and 6th with as little as 84 points winning each division and team #6 with 79 points. It is that close.
 
OMG67 said:
I cannot see Oshawa going 7-0 to finish the season with that schedule. They’ve been inconsistent all year. You can point to that five game stretch or I could point to the previous five game stretch where they were 0-5 between Feb 6th and 16th. Five game stretches as a sample size aren’t really meaningful.

Oshawa pretty much needs to beat Brantford tomorrow. If they do, that opens the door for Ottawa. If they don’t win, they pretty much eliminate their chances. I can’t see them going 6-0 to finish the season after losing to Brantford. That is a tough schedule.

Ottawa is in every game. It is rare they lose by more than a goal. They have a lot of soft games left. They do need to win the Brantford games without a doubt. I don’t think there is any wiggle room there. I really feel that is what it will come down to. IMO, Ottawa should compile 79 points with game results still required for Brantford x2, Missy and Kingston. They win the two Brantford games, they are at 83 points. They win one of the Kingston or Missy games, that is 85 points. If Ottawa gives points away to the likes of Peterborough, Barrie, or Niagara, I will be surprised. Even you have to admit it would be surprising if Ottawa were to lose those games. Those teams are poor right now. Barrie has been ok but are very beatable. They are an 8th place team for a reason.

Brantford is hobbling along riding a miracle wave. I think the wave finally crashed yesterday. I think they will stumble a bit down the stretch unless they get those guys back. If Sobolev misses more games, they are screwed. You can only win so many games with spit and duct tape.

This isn’t as easy as looking at the standings right now. A lot will change between now and the end of the season. Sudbury is likely to falter a bit as well (as you mentioned). This could end up being as little as 4 points between 1st and 6th with as little as 84 points winning each division and team #6 with 79 points. It is that close.
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Its only not easy to look at the standings because it doesn't support your position. The team trailing by 7pts with 9 games to go in the season is not in a position of strength. Ottawa has lost their last two games, if they don't start winning it doesn't matter what the other teams do.
 
OMG67 said:
I cannot see Oshawa going 7-0 to finish the season with that schedule. They’ve been inconsistent all year. You can point to that five game stretch or I could point to the previous five game stretch where they were 0-5 between Feb 6th and 16th. Five game stretches as a sample size aren’t really meaningful.

Oshawa pretty much needs to beat Brantford tomorrow. If they do, that opens the door for Ottawa. If they don’t win, they pretty much eliminate their chances. I can’t see them going 6-0 to finish the season after losing to Brantford. That is a tough schedule.

Ottawa is in every game. It is rare they lose by more than a goal. They have a lot of soft games left. They do need to win the Brantford games without a doubt. I don’t think there is any wiggle room there. I really feel that is what it will come down to. IMO, Ottawa should compile 79 points with game results still required for Brantford x2, Missy and Kingston. They win the two Brantford games, they are at 83 points. They win one of the Kingston or Missy games, that is 85 points. If Ottawa gives points away to the likes of Peterborough, Barrie, or Niagara, I will be surprised. Even you have to admit it would be surprising if Ottawa were to lose those games. Those teams are poor right now. Barrie has been ok but are very beatable. They are an 8th place team for a reason.

Brantford is hobbling along riding a miracle wave. I think the wave finally crashed yesterday. I think they will stumble a bit down the stretch unless they get those guys back. If Sobolev misses more games, they are screwed. You can only win so many games with spit and duct tape.

This isn’t as easy as looking at the standings right now. A lot will change between now and the end of the season. Sudbury is likely to falter a bit as well (as you mentioned). This could end up being as little as 4 points between 1st and 6th with as little as 84 points winning each division and team #6 with 79 points. It is that close.
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No one said anything about Oshawa going on a 7 game heater.
Gaining 6 pts on Oshawa in 2 weeks is going to be damn near impossible.
Especially when Oshawa is the better team in every aspect and has become more consistent lately.
Oshawa is very hot right now 7-1-2 as opposed to Ottawa's 5-4-1.

They score more goals, They allow less goals, Their PP is better, Their PK is better.
They can also be that mean psychical team that can play playoff hockey any game.
Oshawa is the better team is every aspect i can't think of one area where Ottawa is better when i look at these 2 teams and how they are designed.
You are putting too much weight into strength of schedule in my opinion.
 
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OMG67 said:
I cannot see Oshawa going 7-0 to finish the season with that schedule. They’ve been inconsistent all year. You can point to that five game stretch or I could point to the previous five game stretch where they were 0-5 between Feb 6th and 16th. Five game stretches as a sample size aren’t really meaningful.

Oshawa pretty much needs to beat Brantford tomorrow. If they do, that opens the door for Ottawa. If they don’t win, they pretty much eliminate their chances. I can’t see them going 6-0 to finish the season after losing to Brantford. That is a tough schedule.

Ottawa is in every game. It is rare they lose by more than a goal. They have a lot of soft games left. They do need to win the Brantford games without a doubt. I don’t think there is any wiggle room there. I really feel that is what it will come down to. IMO, Ottawa should compile 79 points with game results still required for Brantford x2, Missy and Kingston. They win the two Brantford games, they are at 83 points. They win one of the Kingston or Missy games, that is 85 points. If Ottawa gives points away to the likes of Peterborough, Barrie, or Niagara, I will be surprised. Even you have to admit it would be surprising if Ottawa were to lose those games. Those teams are poor right now. Barrie has been ok but are very beatable. They are an 8th place team for a reason.

Brantford is hobbling along riding a miracle wave. I think the wave finally crashed yesterday. I think they will stumble a bit down the stretch unless they get those guys back. If Sobolev misses more games, they are screwed. You can only win so many games with spit and duct tape.

This isn’t as easy as looking at the standings right now. A lot will change between now and the end of the season. Sudbury is likely to falter a bit as well (as you mentioned). This could end up being as little as 4 points between 1st and 6th with as little as 84 points winning each division and team #6 with 79 points. It is that close.
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There can/probably will be changes among the top 6 teams as well as 7-8. I think you have to consider Barrie equal to Mississauga and better than Kingston right now.
 
ScoutLife4 said:
No one said anything about Oshawa going on a 7 game heater.
Gaining 6 pts on Oshawa in 2 weeks is going to be damn near impossible.
Especially when Oshawa is the better team in every aspect and has become more consistent lately.
Oshawa is very hot right now 7-1-2 as opposed to Ottawa's 5-4-1.

They score more goals, They allow less goals, Their PP is better, Their PK is better.
They can also be that mean psychical team that can play playoff hockey any game.
Oshawa is the better team is every aspect i can't think of one area where Ottawa is better when i look at these 2 teams and how they are designed.
You are putting too much weight into strength of schedule in my opinion.
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Easy there Scout, winning a few hockey games in the regular season doesn't make the Genny's the favorite in the east either. Its going to be a competitive playoff this year where any of top 6 could conceivably get a run of good fortune and win the east.
 
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PuckStop75 said:
Easy there Scout, winning a few hockey games in the regular season doesn't make the Genny's the favorite in the east either. Its going to be a competitive playoff this year where any of top 6 could conceivably get a run of good fortune and win the east.
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The East is wide open as far as playoffs go.
Oshawa is far superior to Ottawa is all I was eluding too and all of the data backs it up without using what if's and theories.
 
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ScoutLife4 said:
No one said anything about Oshawa going on a 7 game heater.
Gaining 6 pts on Oshawa in 2 weeks is going to be damn near impossible.
Especially when Oshawa is the better team in every aspect and has become more consistent lately.
Oshawa is very hot right now 7-1-2 as opposed to Ottawa's 5-4-1.

They score more goals, They allow less goals, Their PP is better, Their PK is better.
They can also be that mean psychical team that can play playoff hockey any game.
Oshawa is the better team is every aspect i can't think of one area where Ottawa is better when i look at these 2 teams and how they are designed.
You are putting too much weight into strength of schedule in my opinion.
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Ottawa has two games in hand and a powderpuff schedule. this is why I am doing points projections. Is it realistic that Oshawa goes 5-2? I’d say that is realistic. If I had to do an under-over, I’d put Oshawa at 5 wins. If they do, they finish with 85 points.

Is it realistic that Ottawa wins five games against Peterborough, Barrie and Niagara? Yes. It is. In fact, it is expected. That brings Ottawa to 79 points with four additional games against Brantford x2, Missy and Kingston. Ottawa would need to win three of those game to tie Oshawa at 85 points. Ottawa holds the tiebreaker. That is the scenario between Oshawa and Ottawa. It is that simple. Ottawa needs to win the powderpuff games that they should win. Then they need to win 3 of 4 against teams that are more of a challenge, preferably both against Brantford.

The Ottawa vs Brantford is even more clear. Same scenario for Ottawa vs the powderpuff teams getting them to 79 points. Two wins vs Brantford gets them to 83 points. Those two losses against Ottawa maxes Brantford out at 88 points. Ottawa does need Brantford to not win their other six games. Brantford is limping right now. They have a relatively tough schedule, albeit mostly at home which helps to even the playing field. It is realistic to expect them to go 4-2 in those other 6 games giving them 84 points.

This is a realistic projection for Oshawa and Brantford and Oshawa. Neither team is likely to run their schedule. So, for Ottawa, it really comes down to the two Brantford games. If they win the first game on March 16, the final game of the season (Ott vs Bfd) on March 24 “likely” will be a battle for the division win. I don’t see how that is unrealistic when looking at things like games in hand and strength of schedule. If we were doing VEGAS ODDS, those would be significant factors that would go into the calculation.

If I were calculating VEGAS ODDS for under-over, I would have final points totals as:

Oshawa 85
Brantford 84
Ottawa 83

When, there is two points separating 1st and 3rd, anything can happen. So, even though there is 7 points separating Ottawa and Brantford now, those teams have not had a balanced schedule. Strength of schedule getting them to where they a re now is not the same. They need to play out the full 68 games. Ottawa has too many powderpuff games to simply ignore.
 
ScoutLife4 said:
The East is wide open as far as playoffs go.
Oshawa is far superior to Ottawa is all I was eluding too and all of the data backs it up without using what if's and theories.
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No team in the Eastern Conference has DEMONSTRATED they are superior in any meaningful way. We have six teams that are relatively equal when it comes to advantages and disadvantages on balance. I prefer to throw out first half results because of how meaningful the trade deadline is in the CHL. I prefer to look at second half results as a more meaningful leading indicator. Each of the six teams have performed well. There really isn’t a lot that separates them.

When working on projections, I try to pull in as many leading indicators as possible to forecast results. That is what I have done here. It really isn’t rocket science. It is basic probabilities. Right now, Ottawa had that one loss to Erie which resulted in a loss of 2 points. That loss of two points reduced their projection to 83 points which falls below the threshold I have of 85 points to win the Division. However, there is a possibility, a decent possibility that they could balance that original projection of 85 points with a win against a team they are less likely to have won. I stand by my prediction of 85-84-83 as the most likely final result but it is too close to suggest that will be the final standing. That 83 points could win the division. It is too close to call.

Since it is too close to call, that means it is too early to also suggest Ottawa has no realistic chance. It also means that neither Oshawa, nor Brantford should be looked upon as anything more than potentially a very slight favourite.

PuckStop75 said:
All the data except the head to head record which is favors Ottawa 6-2
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I don’t factor head to head in the regular season and carry that into the playoffs. Too often relatively equal teams that had a significant imbalance in head to head during the regular season results in quite the opposite result in a seven game series. It does hold true when the difference in strength of teams is present but not much when the teams are equal. Look at Ottawa last year with Peterborough. Ottawa held the season series by a few games and it was meaningless int he playoffs.

We faced Oshawa in an important game with a significant advantage head to head and Ottawa lost. It really isn’t meaningful enough as a serious factor.
 
Honestly, my view is that the chips will fall where they fall. The 67s need to focus on winning their remaining games and go into the playoffs with some momentum and everyone healthy. If things work out and they win their division and/or get home ice advantage, that's great. If not, chalk it up to a poor (by Ottawa's standards) first half of the season, some key losses down the stretch, and giving up points to teams they're chasing in the standings. It is what it is.

But most importantly, MacKenzie needs to find the extra gear that he has shown us in the past. He has shown flashes of elite level play since returning, but he hasn't consistently looked like the goalie he did earlier in the season that could almost singlehandedly win us some games. He needs to get back to that level of performance. He was poor in the Erie game. Better, but still gave up one or two he'd probably want back in the Oshawa game. If he continues playing like that, it'll be a short playoff run for Ottawa.
 
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OMG67 said:
Ottawa has two games in hand and a powderpuff schedule. this is why I am doing points projections. Is it realistic that Oshawa goes 5-2? I’d say that is realistic. If I had to do an under-over, I’d put Oshawa at 5 wins. If they do, they finish with 85 points.

Is it realistic that Ottawa wins five games against Peterborough, Barrie and Niagara? Yes. It is. In fact, it is expected. That brings Ottawa to 79 points with four additional games against Brantford x2, Missy and Kingston. Ottawa would need to win three of those game to tie Oshawa at 85 points. Ottawa holds the tiebreaker. That is the scenario between Oshawa and Ottawa. It is that simple. Ottawa needs to win the powderpuff games that they should win. Then they need to win 3 of 4 against teams that are more of a challenge, preferably both against Brantford.

The Ottawa vs Brantford is even more clear. Same scenario for Ottawa vs the powderpuff teams getting them to 79 points. Two wins vs Brantford gets them to 83 points. Those two losses against Ottawa maxes Brantford out at 88 points. Ottawa does need Brantford to not win their other six games. Brantford is limping right now. They have a relatively tough schedule, albeit mostly at home which helps to even the playing field. It is realistic to expect them to go 4-2 in those other 6 games giving them 84 points.

This is a realistic projection for Oshawa and Brantford and Oshawa. Neither team is likely to run their schedule. So, for Ottawa, it really comes down to the two Brantford games. If they win the first game on March 16, the final game of the season (Ott vs Bfd) on March 24 “likely” will be a battle for the division win. I don’t see how that is unrealistic when looking at things like games in hand and strength of schedule. If we were doing VEGAS ODDS, those would be significant factors that would go into the calculation.

If I were calculating VEGAS ODDS for under-over, I would have final points totals as:

Oshawa 85
Brantford 84
Ottawa 83

When, there is two points separating 1st and 3rd, anything can happen. So, even though there is 7 points separating Ottawa and Brantford now, those teams have not had a balanced schedule. Strength of schedule getting them to where they a re now is not the same. They need to play out the full 68 games. Ottawa has too many powderpuff games to simply ignore.
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I’d say 7 wins and maybe an OTL in 9 games vs Barrie, Kingston, Miss, Niagara, PBO is a reasonable expectation. Maybe 6-1–2. If there is a night followed by day game against a rested team it gets a bit tougher
 
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Is it me or Kimi's turning jnto a player? Did he even have a goal in the first half? Now has 8.
 
67's win 4-2

SHOTS ON GOAL
Teams1st2nd3rdTotal
OTT15211753
PBO114722

Körbler

SECOND
#24 Kimi Körbler RW
G 2A 0+/- +1Ottawa
 
OMG67 said:
No disrespect meant but playing beside Pinelli and Kessler…..
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No argument there, that helps. But he seems to be showing some finishing ability. All I'm saying is he might be a higher ceiling player than I thought a few months ago. Heck I doubted he'd be back next year but now I'd be surprised he isn't.
 
sirius67fan said:
No argument there, that helps. But he seems to be showing some finishing ability. All I'm saying is he might be a higher ceiling player than I thought a few months ago. Heck I doubted he'd be back next year but now I'd be surprised he isn't.
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I think the issue with him returning was more to do with the choice of keeping him or drafting another player with our First Import pick. I think it may have more to do now with Uronen. Is he coming back? If he isn’t then they keep Korbler and use the draft pick. If he does return and the 67’s are still high on him, it will come down to what player does Ottawa have access to and is that player better or worse than Korbler.
 
OMG67 said:
“Considering the teams they are bunched up with, I think they will likley finish 5th place,” is a lot different than saying they are a “5th place team.” Saying they are a 5th place team insinuates they cannot be a 4th place team or a 3rd place team. It insinuates they are not capable. Under the circumstances, that is not true. It is disingenuous to say that.

When I make an argument, I place logical reasoning behind it. I pull out supporting information. I balance that information and come to a conclusion. The conclusion right now is the 67’s are in 6th place in the conference. They are 7 points back of Brantford. They hold one game in hand. They have a relatively easy schedule. They play Brantford twice. IF IF IF they beat Brantford the two games they play, they are “likely” to win the division considering the balance of the schedules Ottawa, Oshawa, and Brantford has.

If Ottawa beats Brantford those two games, they will likely finish the season with 84-87 points. Each one of those point totals in that range line up with a potential division win. The two losses Brantford would have to Ottawa in that scenario, gives them a max of 88 points. They are limping terribly right now. They have a tough schedule. It is unlikely they win their remaining games. This is why I feel 85 points is the marker. Oshawa can finish with 89 points. But, their schedule is tough. They have Missy, Brantford, Sudburyx2 and Kitchener plus two easy games. It is not conceivable they run that schedule. If they run that schedule, they win the division but they also take points away from those teams which opens the door for Ottawa to finish in the 3rd seed. That makes it even more difficult to consider Ottawa a 5th place team.

Ottawa needs to win the two Brantford games. I still feel like the final game of the season will be meaningful for the division. It is possible that the Sudbury Oshawa game to end the season is also meaningful. But from the perspective of Ottawa vs Brantford as the true division winner battle, that last game will have meaning.
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Where we differ is that I do not look at or depend on if's especially when we have to beat one of the top team as in the league twice once in their rink and hope that they falter down the stretch.

As to the terminology you can argue which way you want but with this present lineup this is a 5th or 6th place team with the players they have. The only reason that they are still giving you hope is that the 3-4 place teams are in the same level only slightly better.

Remember I have not felt this was a top team all year. It has been my belief that they are right where they are because of the skill level or lack of skill level compared to other Ottawa teams.
 
That was top 3 worst games I’ve attended this season.
Watching paint dry would have been more entertaining than those first 2 periods.

Zero physicality and extra sloppy hockey all around.
 
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