Confirmed Signing with Link: [OTT] Brady Tkachuk re-signs with Senators (7 years, $8.205714M AAV)

[nbwingsfan]

What's your end game here? He's a unique player that brings a skillset that is hard to quantify. Sure they overpaid by 1.5 - 2mil rn but the team is obv also paying for potential. It could also be argued that Ottawa overpaid out of necessity (no bonuses, we suck tax etc).

I've never been irritated by a signing (especially when it doesn't even involve my team) to the point where I have to berate and ridicule every poster who thinks differently. Very odd behaviour.

Good to see someone finally admit it. I'm responding to the posters who keep saying hes properly paid right now.

 

[devbouz12]

Good to see someone finally admit it. I'm responding to the posters who keep saying hes properly paid right now.

Of course he's not rn. I feel like this is common for many RFA longterm contracts are structured like this. Sens overpaid but I don't think it's bent-over bad like you're implying...

 

[KevinRedkey]

FTR... this is the list of guys who are top 5 in shots over a 3 year span in the cap era (recent to oldest).
MacKinnon
Ovechkin
P.Kane
Matthews
B.Tkachuk
Seguin
Burns
Tarasenko
Pacioretty
Kessel
Nash
E.Kane
Parise
Zetterberg
Stamkos
Carter
Staal
Lecavalier
J.Blake
Jokinen
Hossa
Kovalchuk

Here's the list of players that did it on their ELC:
Ovechkin
B.Tkachuk

Here's the list of players who were also top 5 in hits:
B.Tkachuk

So when you ask for a comparable to Tkachuk - you're missing the point. There isn't one. Some guys come close in some aspects (D.Brown, E.Kane, Lucic, Ovechkin, Backes, Clutterbuck, etc..) but not a single players has done what Brady has done as a whole, in the cap era. Period.

Nylander on the other hand can be judged mostly on points. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that. But it's indisputable that Brady is the rarer commodity. That's where his value lies, and that's why he got paid.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Brady also #1 in penalties drawn and fights.
RFA long term deals never seem great first couple of years, but as they go on they become great deals.Just look at some of the deals handed out this summer.

 

[Sting]

Good to see someone finally admit it. I'm responding to the posters who keep saying hes properly paid right now.

There aren't a lot of players who are "properly paid" in the NHL. The ones who are would likely jump at the chance to renegotiate.

 

[Korpse]

I asked you to find someone who has produced less who got more money. Should be very simple to do if this isn’t a bad contract.

You can’t do it, so it says it all.

Maybe your 50pt player will lead you to a Cup for once, but that’s very unlikely.

I have clearly laid out comparables and I could list more though you seem set on your arbitrary conditions and reject any example because of a slight difference as if it were a vacuum.

 

[playasRus]

Good to see someone finally admit it. I'm responding to the posters who keep saying hes properly paid right now.

I'm not sure there are many that feel 8.2 M is proper, and I'd say most would say even in 3 years will likely still be 0.5-1M overpayment.

Every senators fan will agree that it had to be done though. The amount he's overpaid by right now is arguably 2-3M for a 45 PT banger who's really worth about 5-6M.

Were just hoping he develops enough that were overpaying by less for more than half that 7 year contract. Say if he becomes a 55-60pt by year 2, and improves further to a 60-65pt player by year 3, it's a win-win for Ottawa.

FTR... this is the list of guys who are top 5 in shots over a 3 year span in the cap era (recent to oldest).

Here's the list of players that did it on their ELC:
Ovechkin
B.Tkachuk

Here's the list of players who were also top 5 in hits:
B.Tkachuk

So when you ask for a comparable to Tkachuk - you're missing the point. There isn't one. Some guys come close in some aspects (D.Brown, E.Kane, Lucic, Ovechkin, Backes, Clutterbuck, etc..) but not a single players has done what Brady has done as a whole, in the cap era. Period.

Nylander on the other hand can be judged mostly on points. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that. But it's indisputable that Brady is the rarer commodity. That's where his value lies, and that's why he got paid.

Thing is, one can correlate points to wins and that's why it's often used as a metric for salary. Considering Brady has "no comparable" it makes it hard to valuate what his contract should be. Will be fun to criticize over the next 5 years with hindsight.

I have no qualms with the contract though. Obviously I wish every star on the Senators was paid 1M, we were able to sign any UFA we wanted, and that tickets were dirt cheap to boot.

 

[KevinRedkey]

For around 50pts, yeah around $6.2M is about the going rate. You guys overpaid by about $1.5-$2M going off comparables.

6.200 to 6.700 is 7.60% to 8.22% of the cap. That list currently includes (forwards only, 4+ year deals):
Oshie
Larkin
Atkinson
Gallagher
Kreider
Schenn
Ehlers
Huberdeau
Lucic
Okposo
Eriksson
Forsberg - UFA 2022

I think we can agree Lucic, Okposo, and Eriksson are terrible contacts and can be ignored.
Huberdeau can also be ignored as he is due for a massive raise in less than 12 months.

Points per 82 over past 3 seasons (not including this season)
Oshie - 60
Larkin - 64
Atkinson - 59
Gallagher - 57
Kreider - 54
Schenn - 61
Ehlers - 64
Forsberg - 64

Tkachuk - 52

So the difference is a max of 12 points, which I believe Brady will close as soon as next year - and he adds a hell of a lot more 'intangibles' than most of these guys. I think your evaluation of his contract is on the low side for that reason.

I personally think he's overpaid by ~0.700 but he's so unique it's hard to quantify a 'fair' number.

 

[Bevans]

For around 50pts, yeah around $6.2M is about the going rate. You guys overpaid by about $1.5-$2M going off comparables.

Well then ottawa has quite discount because they're paying him 4.5 million this year.

We will see if he can keep up with his contract as it ramps up.

 

[JT Kreider]

FTR... this is the list of guys who are top 5 in shots over a 3 year span in the cap era (recent to oldest).
MacKinnon
Ovechkin
P.Kane
Matthews
B.Tkachuk
Seguin
Burns
Tarasenko
Pacioretty
Kessel
Nash
E.Kane
Parise
Zetterberg
Stamkos
Carter
Staal
Lecavalier
J.Blake
Jokinen
Hossa
Kovalchuk

Here's the list of players that did it on their ELC:
Ovechkin
B.Tkachuk

Here's the list of players who were also top 5 in hits:
B.Tkachuk

So when you ask for a comparable to Tkachuk - you're missing the point. There isn't one. Some guys come close in some aspects (D.Brown, E.Kane, Lucic, Ovechkin, Backes, Clutterbuck, etc..) but not a single players has done what Brady has done as a whole, in the cap era. Period.

Nylander on the other hand can be judged mostly on points. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that. But it's indisputable that Brady is the rarer commodity. That's where his value lies, and that's why he got paid.

I also believe Brady led the league in penalties drawn

 

[Bevans]

Fact of the matter is most criticism of this contract is over simplified, to the point of deliberately obfuscating legitimate questions with the contract.

He is not being overpaid right now. Period.

However, the structure of the contract assumes a meteoric level of development that may or may not occur.

His current level of play justifies at least the next 2-3 years of real salary. However, there is no telling whether he can keep up with the most expensive years.

Fortunately, even if he can't keep up in development, his cap hit will be lower than the salary in those years. These being the years when the senators most need the cap space.

Ottawa is robbing Peter is pay Paul. Theyre burning loser 2021 cap space to save competitive 2025 cap space.

 

[Deep Blue Metallic]

FTR... this is the list of guys who are top 5 in shots over a 3 year span in the cap era (recent to oldest).
MacKinnon
Ovechkin
P.Kane
Matthews
B.Tkachuk
Seguin
Burns
Tarasenko
Pacioretty
Kessel
Nash
E.Kane
Parise
Zetterberg
Stamkos
Carter
Staal
Lecavalier
J.Blake
Jokinen
Hossa
Kovalchuk

Here's the list of players that did it on their ELC:
Ovechkin
B.Tkachuk

Here's the list of players who were also top 5 in hits:
B.Tkachuk

So when you ask for a comparable to Tkachuk - you're missing the point. There isn't one. Some guys come close in some aspects (D.Brown, E.Kane, Lucic, Ovechkin, Backes, Clutterbuck, etc..) but not a single players has done what Brady has done as a whole, in the cap era. Period.

Nylander on the other hand can be judged mostly on points. There's absolutely nothing wrong with that. But it's indisputable that Brady is the rarer commodity. That's where his value lies, and that's why he got paid.

Nice analysis.

For a comparable, think Iginla. If Brady even comes close to Iginla's goal and point totals, his contract will have been an absolute bargain.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I have clearly laid out comparables and I could list more though you seem set on your arbitrary conditions and reject any example because of a slight difference as if it were a vacuum.

No, I asked you to show me one single forward who has produced less and paid more (or even the same).

All you’ve done is list a bunch of players who produced more and were paid less. That’s it.

 

[nbwingsfan]

I'm not sure there are many that feel 8.2 M is proper, and I'd say most would say even in 3 years will likely still be 0.5-1M overpayment.

Every senators fan will agree that it had to be done though. The amount he's overpaid by right now is arguably 2-3M for a 45 PT banger who's really worth about 5-6M.

Were just hoping he develops enough that were overpaying by less for more than half that 7 year contract. Say if he becomes a 55-60pt by year 2, and improves further to a 60-65pt player by year 3, it's a win-win for Ottawa.



Thing is, one can correlate points to wins and that's why it's often used as a metric for salary. Considering Brady has "no comparable" it makes it hard to valuate what his contract should be. Will be fun to criticize over the next 5 years with hindsight.

I have no qualms with the contract though. Obviously I wish every star on the Senators was paid 1M, we were able to sign any UFA we wanted, and that tickets were dirt cheap to boot.

There’s actually quite a few posters who have said this is good value for him right now. That’s the problem. His “intangibles” are worth the extra ~$2M a year. We saw the same thing from Chicago fans when Toews signed for $10M

 

[TeamRenzo]

There’s actually quite a few posters who have said this is good value for him right now. That’s the problem. His “intangibles” are worth the extra ~$2M a year. We saw the same thing from Chicago fans when Toews signed for $10M

Yes, he is worth more due to his intangibles, thanks for agreeing

 

[nbwingsfan]

Yes, he is worth more due to his intangibles, thanks for agreeing

Like I said, the new Toews after he got his $10M. We’ve seen how well that turned out for Chicago …

 

[nbwingsfan]

Nice analysis.

For a comparable, think Iginla. If Brady even comes close to Iginla's goal and point totals, his contract will have been an absolute bargain.

You mean if Tkachuk comes close to being a Hart trophy candidate his contract will be worth it? Is that what you guys expect out of him?

 

[Stewie Griffin]

There’s actually quite a few posters who have said this is good value for him right now. That’s the problem. His “intangibles” are worth the extra ~$2M a year. We saw the same thing from Chicago fans when Toews signed for $10M

Toews was the captain of a dynasty at the time of his signing. Brady is coming off his ELC in which he hasn't made the playoffs yet. I don't see the comparable here.

 

[DueDiligence]

Like I said, the new Toews after he got his $10M. We’ve seen how well that turned out for Chicago …

When Toews got his contract in 2015 -16 it is the equivalent of $12 million this year. Kane got the same deal so it meant almost 30% of the cap was for 2 guys. Ottawa can pay another top end guy $8 million next year and be still better off than Chicago was.

 

[Bevans]

When Toews got his contract in 2015 -16 it is the equivalent of $12 million this year. Kane got the same deal so it meant almost 30% of the cap was for 2 guys. Ottawa can pay another top end guy $8 million next year and be still better off than Chicago was.

Not to mention Toews got 13.8 in real money first year to Brady's 4.5

Ridiculous comparison.

If anything Toews and Kane SUPPORT the logic of this contract.

It is better to overpay for future production than to overpay for past production. Duh.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Toews was the captain of a dynasty at the time of his signing. Brady is coming off his ELC in which he hasn't made the playoffs yet. I don't see the comparable here.

It’s the “intangibles” comments. Toews had this weird “leadership” trait that Hawks fans used to say he was worth $10M.

Sens fans are now using that he “hits and shoots a lot” to Explain why they gave a 50pt player 10% of their cap.

 

[nbwingsfan]

When Toews got his contract in 2015 -16 it is the equivalent of $12 million this year. Kane got the same deal so it meant almost 30% of the cap was for 2 guys. Ottawa can pay another top end guy $8 million next year and be still better off than Chicago was.

I’m talking about a player being vastly overpaid for “intangibles”.

 

[PoutineSp00nZ]

I’m talking about a player being vastly overpaid for “intangibles”.

And thats where there will always be discourse. Its easy to measure points, and look at contracts for players and gauge how much they're getting paid per point.

A guy with leadership, tenacity, all those other qualities that are hard to measure is much harder to gauge in terms of salary and there will always be various positions.

Then you take into account other issues. Like with Ottawa. . . how vital it was for the organization to show its fanbase it is able and willing to sign core players to big contracts long term. And how Tkachuk is basically the prototype for what kind of personality they want their team to have.

It all lined up perfectly for Tkachuk to demand the moon, and the Senators being in a spot where they needed to lock him up more than he needed to be signed.

 

[TeamRenzo]

It’s the “intangibles” comments. Toews had this weird “leadership” trait that Hawks fans used to say he was worth $10M.

Sens fans are now using that he “hits and shoots a lot” to Explain why they gave a 50pt player 10% of their cap.

Sens fans are happy, not sure what else you are looking for and to be blunt we don't care if you agree. The fact you cant accept that Sens fans are happy with the contract is puzzling.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Sens fans are happy, not sure what else you are looking for and to be blunt we don't care if you agree. The fact you cant accept that Sens fans are happy with the contract is puzzling.

Fans were happy about a lot of contracts that turned out poorly