Nam isn't reliable thus far out. The Nam stalled the hp leading to thumping.
Latest gfs was not good for snow lovers even though it shifted north
Cmc was okay
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Nam isn't reliable thus far out. The Nam stalled the hp leading to thumping.
Latest gfs was not good for snow lovers even though it shifted north
Cmc was okay
hockeykicker
Global Moderator
- Dec 3, 2014
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Gfs is an outlier it may have had some issues. The 06z will definitely change.
but the gfs has a few inches. which one is the better model?
Remember models don't make forecasts
hockeykicker
Global Moderator
- Dec 3, 2014
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but the gfs has a few inches. which one is the better model?
Gfs the outlier. NAVGEM just also verified a blizzard for Long Island. 80 mph!!!! Gusts hitting our shores.
28 inches over Long Island.
See the trend? And why cant I post photos so annoying! Not to say washington dc wont verify, but its looking worse for them with the trends. Thats why these weather guys need to keep their mouths shut. I had a feeling that enough data was available and thus keeping the storm supressed in the heart of the mid atl states. Tomorrow is D day with forecasts but, at this point, TWC has to think of issuing a blizzard warning for our area if the trends continue.
Im also starting to worry for catastrophic flooding. Not sandy bad, but there is going to be damage to our shores if the system staals to our south over the atl, bringing those onshore hurricane gusts over a sustained period.
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Good morning all. Lots happened overnight. Storm is trending a little more south then expected, but forecasters paying attention to the snow, thickness line believe today will tell the story of a nor easter that impacts our shores as a blizzard.
Thus upton Ny has issued a blizzard watch for long island, as i predicted. Blizzard watch in effect sat AM until sun AM. Hurricane gusts are possible with this storm.
I worry about flooding, esp on our south shores. Long beach residents, etc, need to have flood plans in place today and tomorrow.
Accumulations: 8-12 inches with locally higher amounts. PAY ATTENTION: Any trend north and LI enters the eastern edge of the jackpot zone. I would not be suprised to see local amounts of close to 18 inches. I know two forecasters, personally, who believe this will be the result of the storm.
This will be wet, heavy snow with snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour in the day saturday. There will be power outages. Make plans now.
Thus upton Ny has issued a blizzard watch for long island, as i predicted. Blizzard watch in effect sat AM until sun AM. Hurricane gusts are possible with this storm.
I worry about flooding, esp on our south shores. Long beach residents, etc, need to have flood plans in place today and tomorrow.
Accumulations: 8-12 inches with locally higher amounts. PAY ATTENTION: Any trend north and LI enters the eastern edge of the jackpot zone. I would not be suprised to see local amounts of close to 18 inches. I know two forecasters, personally, who believe this will be the result of the storm.
This will be wet, heavy snow with snowfall rates up to 3 inches per hour in the day saturday. There will be power outages. Make plans now.
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TeamKidd
Registered User
- Aug 9, 2004
- 6,031
- 2,308
and 06 GFS put us right back on the razors edge between a foot and nothing....
TeamKidd
Registered User
- Aug 9, 2004
- 6,031
- 2,308
thats a bold forecast considering our position within the QPF, GFS and Euro provide very little support for this theory, other than wind and flooding.
PS, anyone who tells you they KNOW what is going to happen is lying to you. This is a very complex setup and we're on the edge, i'm reminded of last year when manhattan was supposed to get 2-3 feet, right until ....it didnt. storm captured 90 min late and the east end got 2 feet, not manhattan. mesodynamics are not well handled this far out, id caution against certainty. ...and i wouldnt rely on the NAM for anything if i were you.
Strummergas
Regular User
That sounds pretty unlikely. Still, the thing that has me encouraged is that everyone seems to agree that it's going to get warm the following week (i.e. into the 40's). While that could be bad for flooding, at least the snow isn't going to have a huge long-term impact.
Haha - was just going to post the same thing. Pretty sure we're getting nothing now. Although I pretty much guaranteed the same thing when we busted out the kids snow boots, realized they didn't fit and ordered new ones from Zappos. Pretty sure they won't come out of the box.
Your sister says the same thing every Friday night!
Thanks folks, I'll be here all week. Tip your waitresses.
I don't even get what the joke was supposed to be. Maybe the problem isn't statistics.
wingnutks
Registered User
- Nov 17, 2011
- 6,737
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Doing what? When did you get your degree? Public or private?
18-30" last night, 8-12" today, unless locally 18"....
The ONLY guarantee at this point is the wind. QPF is still in question, ratios are in question, warming layer at 5000ft is in question, surface warming is in question.
Yesterday you were proclaiming definitely a big sleet/mix event for LI, and then 18-30", now less, but up to 3" per hour. You can't have a big sleet event and 2' of snow, unless you have some insane PWATs.
wingnutks
Registered User
- Nov 17, 2011
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All of this. Especially about using the NAM when the low that is responsible for all of this doesn't exist yet.
I remember working that storm, high pressure to the north was way stronger than forecast, most of LI had some flurries and then blue skies with heavy snowfall to the south.
With all the folks saying it will hit it wont hit, it reminds me of this back in the day back home....
TROLLCHUK
Registered User
- Jul 1, 2006
- 5,065
- 46
I bought mine a couple of years ago and we had two mild winters because of it. Hopefully you have the same magic.
wingnutks
Registered User
- Nov 17, 2011
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