OT: Severe Weather Discussion

[TeamKidd]

Okay so lots changed since yesterday.

Model runs went north and west. Likely pushing heavier snow towards long island especially western.

Get ready for those blizzard watches.

And this looks like it's a Saturday storm not fri night

you have to let a few model runs consistently show something before you latch onto it....lets see what the 12z runs say, it's a very complex scenario causing the northward migration of the low, its not a typical case so very small machinations will cause the low to pop north or not...wont really know until it actually develops over the deep south tomorrow...

but yes, likely it will precipitate and it will be windy...what form and for how long is still debatable.

and yes as someone intimated, i'm a meteorologist, tho i do believe we have a few on this board...

 

[wingnutks]

so yesterday we werent getting any snow, now today the storm is so far north that we turn to rain...this is why you can't be swayed by one model run, gotta let it play out. to me this is a more likely scenario....that warm warm ocean will fuel the storm, but also could very well drag warm air into the picture, giving us that lovely pinging sound of sleet...

While everyone is out there painting their very fanciful pictures of what they think/would like to happen, i'll tell you the sad truth....we will have no idea what is going to happen until the storm actually develops...think late thursday...then MAYBE we'll have a truer clue...

This. Day 4 and 5 are flip flop days.

 

[wingnutks]

you have to let a few model runs consistently show something before you latch onto it....lets see what the 12z runs say, it's a very complex scenario causing the northward migration of the low, its not a typical case so very small machinations will cause the low to pop north or not...wont really know until it actually develops over the deep south tomorrow...

but yes, likely it will precipitate and it will be windy...what form and for how long is still debatable.

and yes as someone intimated, i'm a meteorologist, tho i do believe we have a few on this board...

People are completely underestimating the wind. Rain or snow, it doesn't matter it is going to be windy and ANY convection at all will be bringing some serious gusts to the surface.

 

[islesjuncky]

NAM came in it takes a dump on western long island.

 

[TeamKidd]

People are completely underestimating the wind. Rain or snow, it doesn't matter it is going to be windy and ANY convection at all will be bringing some serious gusts to the surface.

agreed, and with intense banding likely, we could have vastly different snowfall totals within a few miles of each other, especially on the back end of the storm. i dont envy the ones who have to go on tv and paint a picture when there is so much variability...

 

[TeamKidd]

NAM came in it takes a dump on western long island.

NAM is trash, only take away is that the southern migration was likely a blip in the matrix. 12 hours of onshore flow from the abnormally warm ocean historically has not been good for an all snow event for LI, it would have to thread the needle just right...or just wrong, depending on your perspective

 

[hockeykicker]

Well if anything nws just issued a blizzard watch for nothern Virginia

 

[lazycop]

I sure hope Snow falls, and Capuano too!

As for actual snow, I have to work all weekend, so I hope it's none.

 

[GTislanders]

Well if anything nws just issued a blizzard watch for nothern Virginia

Most models have the storm crushing LI with upwards of 2 feet. And this is getting to be the trend because the storm is over land and now the models have actual data to work with.

If the models stay with this trend expect blizzard watches to be posted tomorrow for LI. The NAM has 75 mph winds sustained on our southern shores for a brief period sat morning.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

What does this stuff mean for NYC and Jersey City?

 

[GTislanders]

What does this stuff mean for NYC and Jersey City?

Have to stay somewhere in the middle. Id say the chances of a foot for nyc and LI has increased. Id say the chances for anything less than a significant winter storm is less today than it was yesterday.

 

[wingnutks]

Most models have the storm crushing LI with upwards of 2 feet. And this is getting to be the trend because the storm is over land and now the models have actual data to work with.

If the models stay with this trend expect blizzard watches to be posted tomorrow for LI. The NAM has 75 mph winds sustained on our southern shores for a brief period sat morning.

You are literally making this up? lol Do you work for a news station?

The models are starting to zero in on around 10-16" for LI. With a sharp northern gradient due to a strengthening high it could be easily less as it could be more.

 

[teknics]

Naturally I have tickets for Saturday. I'm coming from the east end so...doubtful.

 

[islesjuncky]

You are literally making this up? lol Do you work for a news station?

The models are starting to zero in on around 10-16" for LI. With a sharp northern gradient due to a strengthening high it could be easily less as it could be more.

The models do that with a 10:1 snowfall ratio this storm may be 15:1 which wouldn't make two feet impossible

 

[islesjuncky]

The Weather Channel is calling for 12-18 inches island wide

 

[stranger34]

Is there a safe bet for when this storm is supposed to start at this point? I'm trying to get home from Boston to LI on Friday and wondering if I should move up my travel from late afternoon to morning.

 

[hockeykicker]

Is there a safe bet for when this storm is supposed to start at this point? I'm trying to get home from Boston to LI on Friday and wondering if I should move up my travel from late afternoon to morning.

honestly its still too early. just like its still early to really tell how many inches. based on reading the weather boards it looks like it enters dc somewhere around 4-7pm

 

[2ndGenIslander]

i will still be going since i only have to take an underground subway to get to barclays, but taking my old man for his bday and i'm not sure what the LIRR trains will be looking like if its really bad..

I'm not sure if it was just a NVMC thing, but I wonder if barclays would give us vouchers to another game if we have tickets to a game in the middle of a blizzard. Now that I think about it, i'm sure it was just a nassau coliseum thing since you had to drive to get there..

 

[Riseonfire]

I live down the block. Going to try and snag some 1st level seats on the cheap. Move up to the glass during the 1st lol

 

[TeamKidd]

The models do that with a 10:1 snowfall ratio this storm may be 15:1 which wouldn't make two feet impossible

thats assuming it all falls as snow, and models have, from time to time, depicted mixing and sleet creeping in, plus as noted above, there is a very sharp gradient between 2 feet and basically nothing and we're on a razors edge.

small machinations of things yet to be, will ultimately determine our fate. NWS is starting 6 hour balloon drops tomorrow morning, which would help add good data to the models, making the forecast more certain.

Being fast and loose with your predictions is a good way to lose credibility and be wrong...

Given the waffling of the models (from nothing last night, to so far north it mixes and turns to rain this morning , back to snowmageddon this afternoon....it's prudent to wait to see how things evolve.

The trends worth articulating are the later start time (early saturday morning) and the excessive wind/coastal flooding threat. Precip type and amounts are still a big ??

 

[wingnutks]

The models do that with a 10:1 snowfall ratio this storm may be 15:1 which wouldn't make two feet impossible

LOL, I know this. 2 feet is definitely not impossible. Not likely either... and most models are not slamming us with 2'...if they were, they are slamming WV/VA/MD with 4-5'. 15:1 is also not too likely, especially since we will be at 0-(-2)C from 3,000-5,000ft. In my opinion, I think the only way we will fall into the 2' category is if we set up into a mess-band.

 

[KrisBeKreame]

Well if anything nws just issued a blizzard watch for nothern Virginia

Its snowing on the middle peninsula now.

 

[hockeykicker]

Its snowing on the middle peninsula now.

seeing how your also in virginia, heres the capital beltway for half an inch of snow. can you imagine traffic tomorrow?

 

[islesjuncky]

seeing how your also in virginia, heres the capital beltway for half an inch of snow. can you imagine traffic tomorrow?

The problem with tonight was everyone overlooked it because of the storm sat. And also a bit because they don't know how to drive like new yawkers

 

[GTislanders]

LOL, I know this. 2 feet is definitely not impossible. Not likely either... and most models are not slamming us with 2'...if they were, they are slamming WV/VA/MD with 4-5'. 15:1 is also not too likely, especially since we will be at 0-(-2)C from 3,000-5,000ft. In my opinion, I think the only way we will fall into the 2' category is if we set up into a mess-band.

Keep laughing. The entire storm has shifted north completey putting nyc in the 18-30 inch category. NAM just verified a blizzard for lokg island and nyc metro area.

Ive been doing this longer than you have.