Completely agree. I think ownership had this thought that they weren't anywhere near as bad as their record last season, and thought the collapse had everything to do with McAdoo, rather than the fact the team actually did suck, regardless of whoever was coaching. In some regards, yes, the Giants were totally unlucky in their first few games last season, but it was still pretty obvious that Eli was done and the offensive line was atrocious.
OT: OT: 2018 Football Thread III: Well, the Giants suck, anyway!
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Completely agree. I think ownership had this thought that they weren't anywhere near as bad as their record last season, and thought the collapse had everything to do with McAdoo, rather than the fact the team actually did suck, regardless of whoever was coaching. In some regards, yes, the Giants were totally unlucky in their first few games last season, but it was still pretty obvious that Eli was done and the offensive line was atrocious.
I don't mind the pick. I wanted Darnold but thought worst case, they trade up for a QB in the upcoming draft. Looks like they'll be finishing low enough where they won't have to trade anything. There's QBs that come out every year
Eh, disregarding analytics, what kind of message does it send to the team that all the math says they should go for 2 and Shurmur doesn't want to go for it because he doesn't trust them? The Giants were a different team last year. You can really look at one team over many years, you can look at league-wide trends. Either way, if you don't trust them to get 1 out of 2 2 pt conversions then we should give up because they still had a lot of work to do.
I'm really not buying into the analytics here because it's trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. If he went for 2 out of his (unfounded) belief in his team then say that. Don't quote "math" when the "math" doesn't say what he thinks it says.
BTW People here wanted McAdoo gone, now Shurmur is in the cross hairs. Meanwhile, McAdoo was the one who wanted to trade up for Mahomes while the narrative is that he doubled down on Eli.
Yes, the math is legit and I'm working on getting a breakeven point to how good we had to be on 2 point conversions for the math to work. On another board it was calculated supposedly using Giants related numbers and they got a breakeven of 32%. 32% is plenty reasonable to expect to get one of the two two-point conversions. It's lower than their red zone percentage.
Also, when the hell was there a narrative that McAdoo doubled down on Eli? He got fired for benching him for crying out loud. Also, I'm sure a lot of teams like Mahomes. He was a buffoon.
How is 32% a breakeven on 2 point conversions when you needed 2 points on 2 TDs?
Mara made the decision to bench Manning and fed McAdoo to the
It's 2 points on only one of the two TDs.
Using my math it's actually 32.6%.
If you want me to show you the math I can, but it'll be a long read:
Break-even point comes when Probability of the conventional method equals the probability of Shurmur's Strategy. We're looking for a 2 point conversion percentage that makes that happen. Essentially we're solving for X.
Prob (Conventional) = Prob (Shurmur)
Prob (PAT Successful) * Prob (PAT Successful) * OT (Win) + Prob (PAT Unsuccessful) * Prob (2 pt Conversion Successful) * Prob (Overtime Win) = Prob (2 pt Conversion Successful) * Prob (PAT Successful) + Prob (2 pt Conversion Successful) * Prob (PAT Unsuccessful) * Prob (Overtime Win) + Prob (2 pt Conversion Unsuccessful) * Prob (2 pt Conversion Successful) * Prob (Overtime Win)
I plugged in the numbers we have and made the probability of getting a successful conversion (what we're looking for) X, for easier reading.
0.4084373 + 0.025667 X = 0.944X + 0.025667X + 0.458333X * (1-X)
I won't go through every step but it gets simplified to:
0 = 0.458333X^2 - 1.402333X + 0.408437333
I have no idea how to solve that manually but I used solver.
Set Objective: (Solution to the equation)
To Value of: 0
By changing variable cells: Prob (2 pt conversion)
You can also use goal seek, but it's slightly less accurate.
That spits out the answer of around. 32.6%
NYRPat21
Registered User
BroadwayBlues
KK24
How the hell you only get a 5th for Harrison? Apple got more.
Gettleman is starting to really bother me.
Gettleman is starting to really bother me.
BroadwayBlues
KK24
darko
Registered User
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BroadwayBlues
KK24
broadwayblue
Registered User
Why would they even trade him? Seems like a guy you would want to have as part of your D core, no?
- Jan 7, 2013
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There are several reasons why Snacks only got a 5th.
First, he's solely a run stoppper. He's a 2 down player and a one trick pony. His one trick is damn good, but in a pass happy league, his value isn't as high as some think. I think his leadership is great and he's great at what he does, I mean he's statistically one of the best NTs in the game, but you need pass rushers to succeed.
Second, he's a big cap liability. I think he gets paid around $10 million each of the next two seasons, maybe a little less, not sure.
And to wrap it up, he turns 30 next month. He's not exactly a young guy. When we'll actually need him, he'll be too old. He was a candidate to be released next season anyway. While the value isn't great by any stretch, his age, contract, and limited skillset makes his value not absurdly awful. I think teams know we're in firesale mode so maybe in a different circumstance we might've gotten a 4th rounder, but when you look at the situation surrounding the player, it makes relative sense.
First, he's solely a run stoppper. He's a 2 down player and a one trick pony. His one trick is damn good, but in a pass happy league, his value isn't as high as some think. I think his leadership is great and he's great at what he does, I mean he's statistically one of the best NTs in the game, but you need pass rushers to succeed.
Second, he's a big cap liability. I think he gets paid around $10 million each of the next two seasons, maybe a little less, not sure.
And to wrap it up, he turns 30 next month. He's not exactly a young guy. When we'll actually need him, he'll be too old. He was a candidate to be released next season anyway. While the value isn't great by any stretch, his age, contract, and limited skillset makes his value not absurdly awful. I think teams know we're in firesale mode so maybe in a different circumstance we might've gotten a 4th rounder, but when you look at the situation surrounding the player, it makes relative sense.
BroadwayBlues
KK24
If they don't want to pay him, they will trade him. Honestly, he hasn't that good since his second season. And he doesn't effect the passing game much in a passing league.
Zibanejbread
Rebuilding.
OK you're calculating the breakeven of the 2 point conversion assuming a given probability of winning OT under the condition that the Giants score 2 TDs and hold the Falcons. In that context I understand what you're saying and it makes sense. In any event, the Giants last season were 20% going for 2. You just can't apply league averages to specific teams. That never works. I'm not saying Shurmur was wrong in going for 2 but as there's a huge disparity in conversion percentage among teams, to quote "math" in that context is flat out wrong.
You can't look at team specific stats for 2 point conversions. The sample size isn't large enough and the roster turnover makes it irrelevant. You don't think having OBJ and Barkley last year would have possibly made a difference in our 2 point conversion success rate? I also notice you cherry picked last year's number because this year's number hurts your argument. The reason to look at breakeven is to show how poor 2 point conversion stats need to be to make Shurmur's decision solid and mitigate team specific issues.
"The Pats convert at 80% and we convert at 20% so let's use 50% because that's the average." You have to, at some level, take into account that the Giants are well below league average offensively. Using league average in that context is disingenuous. I didn't cherry pick anything, I used the last full season of data. You also don't need stats specific to 2 point conversions since you have all sorts of stats on things like 4th and short, which the Giants have also been poor at.
BiLAAAAL Powell noooooooo!
Cannon needs to step up.
Snacks got less than I thought he would. So did apple. But not too much less. I think gettleman lost out on significant value either way. Snacks should've returned a 4th minimum. Eli should've gotten a 3rd, minimum.
The market for productive vets is always weird.
Kris Jenkins, Braylon Edward's, santonio Holmes, all were available for 4th, 5th rounders or less.
Each went on to have some very productive seasons
TheTakedown
Puck is Life
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To be fair, McAdoo lost the room. I too thought it was all on McAdoo, but clearly that was not entirely the case.
Giants are hitting the same wall that the rangers are. A coaching change helped in some ways, the Giants have had some VERY close games, but a coach usually isn't the difference between winning and losing.
broadwayblue
Registered User
Obviously Eli will not be back next year. If you are the Giants what do you do regarding his replacement? Assuming Herbert is not coming out, do you draft Lock or Finley (or someone else) or sign a vet for a short term deal (Bridgewater) or try to trade for someone (Carr)?
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