O'Reilly needs an O'Rolex Watch - Summer 2014 - Arbitration Date: 7/23/14

[Colorado Avalanche]

Avs have more to lose than O'Reilly here. If they want to get into a staring contest they'll lose the player. At least we still will have the line in the sand.

It would be sad to lose both Stastny and ROR, because of salaries. I understand not every player is Duchene who will take a hometown discount to stay with us, but damn we need to start keeping these players. We can't lose everytime core player when they start asking for money they DESERVE. I think ROR deserves over $6 mil long-term.

 

[5280]

It would be sad to lose both Stastny and ROR, because of salaries. I understand not every player is Duchene who will take a hometown discount to stay with us, but damn we need to start keeping these players. We can't lose everytime core player when they start asking for money they DESERVE. I think ROR deserves over $6 mil long-term.

Why? Intangibles? What has he accomplished, exactly?

 

[Freudian]

The Avs do have more to lose... which is exactly why they will stick to their guns. If their 'structure' gets blown after less than a year after it was created, it will create all sorts of future contract issues. They know they can't afford that, so they will stick to their structure no matter what.

There is no structure. Everyone agrees that it won't be there for EJ or MacKinnon. It just, for some bizarre reason, has to be there for O'Reilly. It's so important that some are willing to lose the player over it.

The funny thing is that this forum mocks the Lacroixs when it seems Roy/Sakic are doing the same thing, just with different numbers.

 

[henchman21]

There is no structure. Everyone agrees that it won't be there for EJ or MacKinnon. It just, for some bizarre reason, has to be there for O'Reilly. It's so important that some are willing to lose the player over it.

The funny thing is that this forum mocks the Lacroixs when it seems Roy/Sakic are doing the same thing, just with different numbers.

I don't think it is a forgone conclusion... EJ still has a lot to prove over the next 2 years, and so does MacK. They are the first potential players to break it though. By that time it is easily possible that MacK sets the new limit simply because he is the best player on the team.

This 'structure' is and has been prevalent on pretty much every team in the NHL for a long, long time. Very few are willing to pay their 3rd/4th best player more than their top or top 2 players.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

Why? Intangibles? What has he accomplished, exactly?

Well, his qualifying offer is going to either $5,8 mil or so. That's pretty much the min. we can sign him while he's RFA! Then he's going to be UFA in 2 years. If we want him for 6 years, be ready to pay $6,5 mil per season long-term, that's fair price. Even Stastny got $7 mil for 4 years from St.Louis and ROR has been better player last 3 years combined than STastny.

 

[Freudian]

I don't think it is a forgone conclusion... EJ still has a lot to prove over the next 2 years, and so does MacK. They are the first potential players to break it though. By that time it is easily possible that MacK sets the new limit simply because he is the best player on the team.

This 'structure' is and has been prevalent on pretty much every team in the NHL for a long, long time. Very few are willing to pay their 3rd/4th best player more than their top or top 2 players.

You can pay O'Reilly $6.5M/year on a long term deal without breaking the structure.

You can't get huffy because not everyone wants to sign on the cheap. You're not going to build a winner by letting your better players go the minute they won't sign on the lower end of what is reasonable.

I refuse to believe Sakic and Roy are that incompetent. I have to believe they are going to at some point be pragmatic instead of fundamentalists.

 

[henchman21]

You can pay O'Reilly $6.5M/year on a long term deal without breaking the structure.

You can't get huffy because not everyone wants to sign on the cheap. You're not going to build a winner by letting your better players go the minute they won't sign on the lower end of what is reasonable.

I refuse to believe Sakic and Roy are that incompetent. I have to believe they are going to at some point be pragmatic instead of fundamentalist about things.

5.75-6.0 is in the prime area of what is reasonable for ROR. If they were asking him to take $5m this time around, that would be the low end of the spectrum. People say Duchene took a hometown discount... he didn't. Neither did Varly nor did Landy. They all signed very comparable contracts to their peers. Duchene is on the upper end of the spectrum for players in the 22-25 age range. The players that are 25 or younger that are ahead of him are Kane (6.3 turns 26 in Novemer) and Stamkos (7.5 and is 24). Both of those players are significantly better than Duchene.

It isn't about incompetence, it is about showing you are not going to be bowled over anytime one of your players demands too much money.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

5.75-6.0 is in the prime area of what is reasonable for ROR. If they were asking him to take $5m this time around, that would be the low end of the spectrum. People say Duchene took a hometown discount... he didn't. Neither did Varly nor did Landy. They all signed very comparable contracts to their peers. Duchene is on the upper end of the spectrum for players in the 22-25 age range. The players that are 25 or younger that are ahead of him are Kane (6.3 turns 26 in Novemer) and Stamkos (7.5 and is 24). Both of those players are significantly better than Duchene.

It isn't about incompetence, it is about showing you are not going to be bowled over anytime one of your players demands too much money.

Duchene is signed for 3 UFA years, how is $6 million a year not discount? Not to mention everybody understands his potential, when you sign this young player to a deal, you are also paying for potential. Duchene will be elite center in this league, top-10 centers If you ask me(maybe even elite top-5?). This guy will be worth as UFA like 8mil+. He just wanted to take this deal, to stay in Colorado and still make ****loads of money. Guaranteed. I think It's a great deal for Colorado.

 

[Freudian]

5.75-6.0 is in the prime area of what is reasonable for ROR. If they were asking him to take $5m this time around, that would be the low end of the spectrum. People say Duchene took a hometown discount... he didn't. Neither did Varly nor did Landy. They all signed very comparable contracts to their peers. Duchene is on the upper end of the spectrum for players in the 22-25 age range. The players that are 25 or younger that are ahead of him are Kane (6.3 turns 26 in Novemer) and Stamkos (7.5 and is 24). Both of those players are significantly better than Duchene.

It isn't about incompetence, it is about showing you are not going to be bowled over anytime one of your players demands too much money.

The market has changed and will continue to change. Market value for Duchene and Landeskog is higher now than it was a year ago. Market value for O'Reilly is higher than it was a year ago. The Duchene and Landeskog contracts will look like steals next year and will get better every year after that.

Stamkos is going to get at least as much as Kane/Toews on his next deal. His UFA years might be worth north of $11M.

The vast majority of teams in the league would have no problems paying O'Reilly $6.5M/year if he was their player. Of course preferring to have him at a lower cap hit is natural but you don't go to war over it, like it seems Avs might do.

 

[Avsboy]

ROR doesn't deserve over $6 million with only one really productive season, but for the love of God just give it to him.

 

[5280]

Well, his qualifying offer is going to either $5,8 mil or so. That's pretty much the min. we can sign him while he's RFA! Then he's going to be UFA in 2 years. If we want him for 6 years, be ready to pay $6,5 mil per season long-term, that's fair price. Even Stastny got $7 mil for 4 years from St.Louis and ROR has been better player last 3 years combined than STastny.

I guess I see locking up RoR at a higher dollar longterm as still a little bit of a gamble. We really don't know how he's going to play deep into the playoffs, for instance. We just don't.

All in all, I would take the gamble, but I see the other side of the equation, too.

Also...does RoR really want to stay in Denver?

Does he like playing for Roy?
Does he want to make the most money possible? (at the expense of possibly winning a Stanley Cup?)
Does he want to be the big fish in the pond?
Does he like playing wing?
Did Lacroix piss him off to the extent that is effecting negotiations this time around?

 

[henchman21]

The market has changed and will continue to change. Market value for Duchene and Landeskog is higher now than it was a year ago. Market value for O'Reilly is higher than it was a year ago. The Duchene and Landeskog contracts will look like steals next year and will get better every year after that.

Stamkos is going to get at least as much as Kane/Toews on his next deal. His UFA years might be worth north of $11M.

The vast majority of teams in the league would have no problems paying O'Reilly $6.5M/year if he was their player. Of course preferring to have him at a lower cap hit is natural but you don't go to war over it, like it seems Avs might do.

IMO A number of teams would have a pretty large problem with it. Landy and Duchene's deals don't start until this upcoming season, they are the market. Just like anymore RFAs that sign deals that include UFA years this summer.

 

[johockey]

Ownership needs to suck it up and get O'Reilly signed. Joe can sit down with Duchene and apologize that he isn't the highest paid player. I'm sure duchene would understand. 6.25 x 8 years. The cap is only going up and if O'Reilly continues to improve, he'll only ask for more.

 

[henchman21]

Ownership needs to suck it up and get O'Reilly signed. Joe can sit down with Duchene and apologize that he isn't the highest paid player. I'm sure duchene would understand. 6.25 x 8 years. The cap is only going up and if O'Reilly continues to improve, he'll only ask for more.

There is a reasonable structure friendly way of setting that deal up. Have brought it up before.

 

[detrude]

You can pay O'Reilly $6.5M/year on a long term deal without breaking the structure.

You can't get huffy because not everyone wants to sign on the cheap. You're not going to build a winner by letting your better players go the minute they won't sign on the lower end of what is reasonable.

I refuse to believe Sakic and Roy are that incompetent. I have to believe they are going to at some point be pragmatic instead of fundamentalists.

Oh stop with this ****. None of our core players have signed on the cheap. Duchene, Landeskog, and Varlamov all took fair market value, and all three were actually considered slightly overpaid at the time they signed. "Overpay a bit in the beginning to get a possible steal at the end" was what most people were saying about their contracts. Amazing how one good year away from Sacco and suddenly their contracts are discounts.

I have yet to see anything that says $6m is the most anyone will ever make, and I refuse to believe Sakic and Roy think that. They seem to evaluate a player based on relative value in the current market. Not tomorrow's market, not the potential $80m cap market that could happen in 5 years, today's market. They're not worried about the player's next contract, or what some Pejorative Slured GM would hypothetically give him as a UFA in X years, they're looking at current value and potential over the term. Today, Matt Duchene is arguably our best skater, and the measuring stick used to determine value. I think you can argue that O'Reilly is on par with him, but not better. As such, he should be paid in line with what Duchene makes. Taking inflation into account, $6.12m would be fair and comparable. Really, I think if we can get him locked up long term at $6.2m or $6.3m then we should do it.

 

[Avs_19]

Just give him $6.5M/yr. The current "structure" is going to be non existent very soon anyways once the cap goes up and others (EJ/MacKinnon) need new contracts. That is unless the team plans on letting those two leave as well unless they buy into this "structure"

 

[Freudian]

Oh stop with this ****. None of our core players have signed on the cheap. Duchene, Landeskog, and Varlamov all took fair market value, and all three were actually considered slightly overpaid at the time they signed. "Overpay a bit in the beginning to get a possible steal at the end" was what most people were saying about their contracts. Amazing how one good year away from Sacco and suddenly their contracts are discounts.

I have yet to see anything that says $6m is the most anyone will ever make, and I refuse to believe Sakic and Roy think that. They seem to evaluate a player based on relative value in the current market. Not tomorrow's market, not the potential $80m cap market that could happen in 5 years, today's market. They're not worried about the player's next contract, or what some Pejorative Slured GM would hypothetically give him as a UFA in X years, they're looking at current value and potential over the term. Today, Matt Duchene is arguably our best skater, and the measuring stick used to determine value. I think you can argue that O'Reilly is on par with him, but not better. As such, he should be paid in line with what Duchene makes. Taking inflation into account, $6.12m would be fair and comparable. Really, I think if we can get him locked up long term at $6.2m or $6.3m then we should do it.

The Landeskog and Duchene contracts haven't even kicked in yet and they are already looking like steals. You can't have that as your ruler going forward. The market is changing fast. If O'Reilly had signed last summer, then you could have used them as proper comparisons. But one year changes a lot.

As for the Duchene ceiling:

Dater: There are some that say your internal structure means you won't pay anyone more than Matt Duchene.

Sakic: My response is that we have Gabe signed. We have Varly signed. We have Matt signed. All within our structure. And we believe Ryan and Paul should fit within that structure as well. We don't believe anyone should be ahead of all those guys. We believe they're equally important to us.

Roy: It was working like this in 1985 when I signed my first contract. It hasn't changed. I remember Serge Savard saying "I can't give you this. Larry Robinson's making that" and today it's the same thing. You establish who is where and where and you go inside of that structure. I think it is very important that any team goes that way or you lose control. When you lose control it's very difficult.

It sounds like their line in the sand is Duchene money. Of course it's possible they are posturing before negotiations just like O'Reilly's camp postured a bit on radio. We'll see.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Not everyone can be paid like a star, only several realistically can. Kane and Toews proved this. In the long run the cost it will take to keep your stars is going to only increase. It's nice the Avs are trying to do this and it almost worked but the reality is O'Reilly will never be a bigger star on this team than Duchene and MacKinnon. Even if they bust the structure and pay O'Reilly now it still won't work out down the road.

 

[CoachBadkitten]

July 23rd is arbitration


http://www.nhlpa.com/news/20-players-elect-salary-arbitration

 

[henchman21]

July 23rd is arbitration


http://www.nhlpa.com/news/20-players-elect-salary-arbitration

Only 2 more weeks and we can move on.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

Two weeks to buckle down and get something done.

 

[5280]

Only 2 more weeks and we can move on.

to that. This is driving me bananas.

 

[Colorado Avalanche]

July 23rd is arbitration


http://www.nhlpa.com/news/20-players-elect-salary-arbitration

Let's hope we have a deal before that. Damn. 2 weeks? Still seems too far away.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Not everyone can be paid like a star, only several realistically can. Kane and Toews proved this. In the long run the cost it will take to keep your stars is going to only increase. It's nice the Avs are trying to do this and it almost worked but the reality is O'Reilly will never be a bigger star on this team than Duchene and MacKinnon. Even if they bust the structure and pay O'Reilly now it still won't work out down the road.

i disagree with this. with good drafting, asset and cap management, it can be made work.

 

[AslanRH]

So many people are wanting the FO to just toss the money at O'Reilly, but went tooth and nail to back Sakic/Roy when they wouldn't pay Stastny. If the principle holds for 1 it needs to hold for the other.

If anything, the market just blew up with the Hawks signings, and UFA Stastny at 6.5m would have been a steal.

At least worth the risk of trying out on the wing over the next couple years as MacKinnon took the reigns before letting him just walk. A quality center at 6.5m will be very sought after in a couple years.

Sakic/Roy giving the money to ROR just to retain him immediately after their unwillingness to go above their number for Stastny due to their push about structure and all will look foolish, weak, naive and desperate.

IMO of course.