O'Reilly needs an O'Rolex Watch - Summer 2014 - Arbitration Date: 7/23/14

[S E P H]

Only 2 more weeks and we can move on.

If he goes to arbitration that is bad news Hench....

 

[Freudian]

Not everyone can be paid like a star, only several realistically can. Kane and Toews proved this. In the long run the cost it will take to keep your stars is going to only increase. It's nice the Avs are trying to do this and it almost worked but the reality is O'Reilly will never be a bigger star on this team than Duchene and MacKinnon. Even if they bust the structure and pay O'Reilly now it still won't work out down the road.

I'm not sure we could argue that a single Avs player is being paid like a star.

Duchene is 33rd among forward cap hits.
No defender is among the top 50 in defender cap hits.
Varlamov is 9th in goaltender cap hits.

 

[Avs_19]

So many people are wanting the FO to just toss the money at O'Reilly, but went tooth and nail to back Sakic/Roy when they wouldn't pay Stastny. If the principle holds for 1 it needs to hold for the other.

O'Reilly is more valuable to the Avs than Stastny. He's worth it, Stastny isn't it. The same principle doesn't need to hold for O'Reilly..

IMO of course.

 

[henchman21]

If he goes to arbitration that is bad news Hench....

Good thing there will be pressure from both sides to get a deal done. In 2 weeks we will pretty much know what will happen.

 

[Freudian]

O'Reilly is more valuable to the Avs than Stastny. He's worth it, Stastny isn't it. The same principle doesn't need to hold for O'Reilly..

IMO of course.

Also, absorbing the loss of one of them is possible even if it hurts. Losing both of them would be a massive hit to the team. You can't play Landeskog on two lines.

 

[Avs_19]

Also, absorbing the loss of one of them is possible even if it hurts. Losing both of them would be a massive hit to the team. You can't play Landeskog on two lines.

Cloning?

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

5.75-6.0 is in the prime area of what is reasonable for ROR. If they were asking him to take $5m this time around, that would be the low end of the spectrum. People say Duchene took a hometown discount... he didn't. Neither did Varly nor did Landy. They all signed very comparable contracts to their peers. Duchene is on the upper end of the spectrum for players in the 22-25 age range. The players that are 25 or younger that are ahead of him are Kane (6.3 turns 26 in Novemer) and Stamkos (7.5 and is 24). Both of those players are significantly better than Duchene.

It isn't about incompetence, it is about showing you are not going to be bowled over anytime one of your players demands too much money.

5.75-6.0 might be the "prime area of what is reasonable for RoR". But 6.5 is not unreasonable. Losing him over .5 per year sure is though (unreasonable).

The other thing unreasonable is the idea that proven 22-25 year olds should be forced to take a discount compared to UFA of the same talent levels. Lets not even call it a hometown discount, but a RFA discount since this crap is league wide. If we are so set on forcing these 22-25 years to do that, then these 22-25 year olds will rarely take a a long term deal (we got lucky with Duchene and Lando), instead they will take short terms waiting until they are a UFA and then they will feel entitled to their UFA contract mark up (an extra .5 -1mil per year, as opposed to .5-1mil less). And if we want to keep them once they hit UFA status we are going to have to pay out them out ass.

Not taking age into account, just peoples talent levels, Duchene is getting about a million less than he should. 1 of the top 5 playmakers in the league, a point per game player, and he is only going to get better- well worth 7 mil. Lando is getting .5mil less at least. The guy is one of the most complete players in the game. Maybe I put too much emphasis on versatility in a player, but to me he is near the top of power forwards in the league. Most dont have his complete game, just are big and physical and excel in either D or O (usually scoring goals). That type of player is well worth 6.25/6.5. Varly was a Vezina finalist. That type of talent is well worth 6.5 or 7.

 

[UncleRisto]

Cloning?

Not allowed in the new CBA.

 

[Freudian]

Cloning?

He's got a twin sister.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Not allowed in the new CBA.

**** bettman.

 

[henchman21]

5.75-6.0 might be the "prime area of what is reasonable for RoR". But 6.5 is not unreasonable. Losing him over .5 per year sure is though (unreasonable).

The other thing unreasonable is the idea that proven 22-25 year olds should be forced to take a discount compared to UFA of the same talent levels. Lets not even call it a hometown discount, but a RFA discount since this crap is league wide. If we are so set on forcing these 22-25 years to do that, then these 22-25 year olds will rarely take a a long term deal (we got lucky with Duchene and Lando), instead they will take short terms waiting until they are a UFA and then they will feel entitled to their UFA contract mark up (an extra .5 -1mil per year, as opposed to .5-1mil less). And if we want to keep them once they hit UFA status we are going to have to pay out them out ass.

Not taking age into account, just peoples talent levels, Duchene is getting about a million less than he should. 1 of the top 5 playmakers in the league, a point per game player, and he is only going to get better- well worth 7 mil. Lando is getting .5mil less at least. The guy is one of the most complete players in the game. Maybe I put too much emphasis on versatility in a player, but to me he is near the top of power forwards in the league. Most dont have his complete game, just are big and physical and excel in either D or O (usually scoring goals). That type of player is well worth 6.25/6.5. Varly was a Vezina finalist. That type of talent is well worth 6.5 or 7.

Oh this again... that is the way the NHL is and how RFA/UFA is structure and agreed to in the CBA. The owners and players agreed to these rules. Like it or not, it is going to remain that way.

I could link the threads, but many thought the Landy contract was an overpayment and that the Duchene was about right. On the main board, both were considered major overpayments. Funny what a year and emotions will do.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Oh this again... that is the way the NHL is and how RFA/UFA is structure and agreed to in the CBA. The owners and players agreed to these rules. Like it or not, it is going to remain that way.

I could link the threads, but many thought the Landy contract was an overpayment and that the Duchene was about right. On the main board, both were considered major overpayments. Funny what a year and emotions will do.

every contract is considered overpayment on the main board.

 

[henchman21]

every contract is considered overpayment on the main board.

So true.

 

[Bubba Thudd]

O'Reilly is more valuable to the Avs than Stastny. He's worth it, Stastny isn't it. The same principle doesn't need to hold for O'Reilly..

IMO of course.

He might be worth it, but only if he is going to sign long-term.
Definitely not worth it if it's a 1 or 2 year deal -- just so we can go through this crap yet again.

 

[Avs_19]

That O'Reilly/Flames thread on the main board.......wow. Wish I didn't read a few pages of that.

Speaking of trades, why do so many Avs fans want Sutter? Or maybe not "want" but why are so many willing to settle for Maatta and Sutter? Maatta is a nice piece who has potential but what does Sutter do for us? We need a good winger to pair with Duchene if O'Reilly gets traded. Acquiring Sutter as the third line center and moving McGinn to Duchene's wing isn't enough IMO.

He might be worth it, but only if he is going to sign long-term.
Definitely not worth it if it's a 1 or 2 year deal -- just so we can go through this crap yet again.

That goes without saying. You only give him $6.5M/yr if he signs for 5+ years. If he doesn't want a long-term deal, just let arbitration play out and start shopping him around the league.

 

[Freudian]

That O'Reilly/Flames thread on the main board.......wow. Wish I didn't read a few pages of that.

Speaking of trades, why do so many Avs fans want Sutter? Or maybe not "want" but why are so many willing to settle for Maatta and Sutter? Maatta is a nice piece who has potential but what does Sutter do for us? We need a good winger to pair with Duchene if O'Reilly gets traded. Acquiring Sutter as the third line center and moving McGinn to Duchene's wing isn't enough IMO.

Like every other guy we trade for, he was better five years ago?

 

[hockeyfish]

That O'Reilly/Flames thread on the main board.......wow. Wish I didn't read a few pages of that.

Speaking of trades, why do so many Avs fans want Sutter? Or maybe not "want" but why are so many willing to settle for Maatta and Sutter? Maatta is a nice piece who has potential but what does Sutter do for us? We need a good winger to pair with Duchene if O'Reilly gets traded. Acquiring Sutter as the third line center and moving McGinn to Duchene's wing isn't enough IMO.



That goes without saying. You only give him $6.5M/yr if he signs for 5+ years. If he doesn't want a long-term deal, just let arbitration play out and start shopping him around the league.

I think he is in that trade simply for salary relief. Although he would make a pretty damn good 3rd line center here.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I'm not sure we could argue that a single Avs player is being paid like a star.

Duchene is 33rd among forward cap hits.
No defender is among the top 50 in defender cap hits.
Varlamov is 9th in goaltender cap hits.

That's the point. The "structure" only works if you keep it that way. And eventually when guys like Duchene and MacKinnon hit all UFA years in their contracts then they will likely get paid like stars. You can't have 4+ players on a team doing so.

You can pay O'Reilly like a star now, fine but you can't later.

 

[AslanRH]

O'Reilly is more valuable to the Avs than Stastny. He's worth it, Stastny isn't it. The same principle doesn't need to hold for O'Reilly..

IMO of course.

Guess that will be seen this season.

I don't have the info so I'm sure someone will provide it to prove me wrong, but it seemed to me that Stastny's absence due to injury was more impactful than ROR's, even taking it back further to the "Holdout" year.

I wish people would not see it as a Stastny vs ROR debate though. Avs could have kept them both and been better off, but chose not to over a "structure" that fits paying a #5 defenseman at best 3.6m or a likely 4th liner 4m. Now both Stastny and ROR could be gone from the long term plan and the Avs will likely have a pittance to show for it.

 

[InjuredChoker]

I don't have the info so I'm sure someone will provide it to prove me wrong, but it seemed to me that Stastny's absence due to injury was more impactful than ROR's, even taking it back further to the "Holdout" year.

sample sizes are too small to measure stuff like that accurately. too many variables.

detroit had better record when datsyuk was out last season (or at least at some point they did). brodeur had better record than schneider.

 

[tigervixxxen]

You can't equate Stastny and the O'Reilly situations AT ALL. one is a core player, the other one wasn't. I don't need to spell out all their differences, we are all aware of them. I don't see how it's similar in any manner.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

So many people are wanting the FO to just toss the money at O'Reilly, but went tooth and nail to back Sakic/Roy when they wouldn't pay Stastny. If the principle holds for 1 it needs to hold for the other.

If anything, the market just blew up with the Hawks signings, and UFA Stastny at 6.5m would have been a steal.

At least worth the risk of trying out on the wing over the next couple years as MacKinnon took the reigns before letting him just walk. A quality center at 6.5m will be very sought after in a couple years.

Sakic/Roy giving the money to ROR just to retain him immediately after their unwillingness to go above their number for Stastny due to their push about structure and all will look foolish, weak, naive and desperate.

IMO of course.

He was also going to be bumped to the 3rd line eventually. 6+ mil is not a number you can justify paying a 3rd liner. RoR is a top6 player for the foreseeable future. That money is well worth a top6 winger/C who happens to be one of the best 2 way players in the league. Seriously, name 10 2way players better than him. Thats the main problem with Staz going over the structure.

Plus, Staz just isnt as good as RoR, Duchene, Etc.

In 2 or 3 years Staz at 6.5 will look like a bad contract because of his role on the team (3rd line C) and peaking order on the roster (7th best player, at best). RoR at 6.5 will be perfectly fine. People might not think its a steal like Duchene and Lando and Varly (if he does not revert back to his old self, that has me worried, dont trust goalies to keep performing consistently), but it wont be bad.

Even with the cap going up, 6.5 is too much to pay for just a "quality" player. These 6+mil contracts will still be only for those great top6 players that are some of the best in the league at what they do (scoring, goalie, point producer, 2way players). Staz is a solid player, but he is not a top point producer, he isnt a top goal scorer and his defensive abilities are not up there with the best.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Guess that will be seen this season.

I don't have the info so I'm sure someone will provide it to prove me wrong, but it seemed to me that Stastny's absence due to injury was more impactful than ROR's, even taking it back further to the "Holdout" year.

I wish people would not see it as a Stastny vs ROR debate though. Avs could have kept them both and been better off, but chose not to over a "structure" that fits paying a #5 defenseman at best 3.6m or a likely 4th liner 4m. Now both Stastny and ROR could be gone from the long term plan and the Avs will likely have a pittance to show for it.

Briere is not going to be a 4th liner and if the Avs hadn't paid a D man over 3m there would be rioting in the streets.

I proved that the Avs will likely have less than 2 million even if O'Reilly is on a reasonable deal but yet we still have this notion that we can pay anyone anything. This team is a cap team RIGHT NOW. But yet we could have had Stastny and Iginla and paid O'Reilly whatever he wants. Hell, Niskanen and Orpik too while we are at it.

 

[henchman21]

Briere is not going to be a 4th liner and if the Avs hadn't paid a D man over 3m there would be rioting in the streets.

I proved that the Avs will likely have less than 2 million even if O'Reilly is on a reasonable deal but yet we still have this notion that we can pay anyone anything. This team is a cap team RIGHT NOW. But yet we could have had Stastny and Iginla and paid O'Reilly whatever he wants. Hell, Niskanen and Orpik too while we are at it.

Hey! This doesn't fit the narrative we are crafting.

Having the cap room going forward, and being a more balanced team was an obvious goal for management. Stuart is going to be in the top 4, likely with Barrie, and allow Barrie to play more even strength minutes while not handicapping the future. Briere won't complain about being in the bottom 6 like Mr Top 6 was. Now while the bottom 6 isn't an ideal by Roy's standard, it is much closer than it was at the end of last summer.

With ROR and Barrie's contracts the Avs are going to be nearing the cap limit, and then there are MacK's bonuses to start worrying about. If they had paid Stastny 6.5m instead of Iginla 5.33, there might not even be enough room to re-sign Barrie and ROR to the deals that some want to give.

 

[Freudian]

That's the point. The "structure" only works if you keep it that way. And eventually when guys like Duchene and MacKinnon hit all UFA years in their contracts then they will likely get paid like stars. You can't have 4+ players on a team doing so.

You can pay O'Reilly like a star now, fine but you can't later.

The structure just means you'll replace good players with worse players, because the worse players will ask for less money.