Post-Game Talk: Oilers win the battle but lose the war against their arch nemesis…

[Tobias Kahun]

View attachment 960719

Apparently getting slammed down means you deserve a penalty

Imagine how upset she’d be if we had pospisil on our team getting kicked out every other game for a dirty play

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

So much crying over an empty net here. When the oilers came back winning games last month with an empty net, the opposition fans didn't cry this much

There are better things to focus on about the game than a stupid empty net.

The Oilers need to ice games when the opportunity arises. They will get scored on at some point. Empty nets may not seem like much in the grand scheme of things, but putting a game out of reach is always key regardless if there's a goalie in net or not.

 

[Da McBomb]

It's like some of the Oilers are embarassed to score on an empty net.

Meanwhile... Colorado stars close to shattering the empty net points record

 

[Lacaar]

View attachment 960608

Second best goaltender again.

Lol jk Skinner was great.

Anyone know why our expected was so much higher when the shots were even, scoring chances favored L.A, and High Danger chances favored L.A?

I do feel that after the first 10 minutes the Oilers got better and better as the game went on. They were clearly the better team imo.. that of course couldn't bury a chance if it came up and slapped them in the face. But that's the Oilers... generate chances so well and finish them so poorly.

 

[Drivesaitl]

So much to reflect on this game I wanted to wait till next day.

Isn't it kind of perfect to beat the LA Kings 1-0?

What could be more demoralizing to a club that seeks to win games 2-1?

The Oilers rolling up their sleeves and saying we can rope a dope too all day. We can limit chances, we can utilize the generational skill you don't have, and with game on line we can get a big brain play out of McD creating a 4 on 4 out of nothing. Finding a King stupid enough to respond. That was the trap right there. Drai sprung it, McD fittingly scored the winner, on his Bday after creating the trap out of nothing in the first place.

As a coaching staff it has to trouble you that a player fell for this gambit. Obviously Kings are best suited 5 on 5. All their schemes work at full strength and they are weaker at other facets. You'd think the Kings would know by now that a 4 on 4 against us is as good as an Oilers PP,

So great the be cheering on the side of great players that made this W last night. Without them you don't obtain it.

 

[K1984]

So much to reflect on this game I wanted to wait till next day.

Isn't it kind of perfect to beat the LA Kings 1-0?

What could be more demoralizing to a club that seeks to win games 2-1?

The Oilers rolling up their sleeves and saying we can rope a dope too all day. We can limit chances, we can utilize the generational skill you don't have, and with game on line we can get a big brain play out of McD creating a 4 on 4 out of nothing. Finding a King stupid enough to respond. That was the trap right there. Drai sprung it, McD fittingly scored the winner, on his Bday after creating the trap out of nothing in the first place.

As a coaching staff it has to trouble you that a player fell for this gambit. Obviously Kings are best suited 5 on 5. All their schemes work at full strength and they are weaker at other facets. You'd think the Kings would know by now that a 4 on 4 against us is as good as an Oilers PP,

So great the be cheering on the side of great players that made this W last night. Without them you don't obtain it.

The 4 on 4 was probably a better outcome than a power play to be honest. Even when we were playing well we couldn't establish much. They did a good job pressuring the puck carrier on the wall, and RNH in particular wasn't too interested in moving it along quickly.

Conversely, it was man among boys 4v4. They had no answer to it at all.

 

[Arpeggio]

Putting Emberson out at the end was such a good coaching move. Big time confidence booster for him. Emberson has to be feeling great about his game now.

 

[Da McBomb]

Putting Emberson out at the end was such a good coaching move. Big time confidence booster for him. Emberson has to be feeling great about his game now.

his next contract is getting bigger and bigger by the day. Hopefully the Oilers get it done soon.

 

[Drivesaitl]

It's like some of the Oilers are embarassed to score on an empty net.

Meanwhile... Colorado stars close to shattering the empty net points record

Its almost as if the Oilers wanted a 1-0 result. I don't think its the case but its almost harder as I stated for the Kings to lose to us 1-0. Even how they lost. When a team gets beat say 4-2 you know that theres probably some different things you can do. Play tighter, play harder. This was the Kings A game. Its all they got. This was quantum better effort from Kings team than they got against Calgary. It wasn't enough, and a sense that the Oilers are playing Cat and mouse.

Gotta be demoralizing to look down the Kings bench and a 37yr old star center is still your best player. Still leading the way. Thats a great look I guess for Kopitar, I don't know how he does it because that club is going nowhere, but its made even worse for guys like that or other competitors like Danault to be on a team that just doesn't have that hope. Danault looks destroyed. Guy needs to be on a better club.

The Kings quick set rebuild has failed. All you have from that now is Byfield. Moore, Turcotte, Clarke. Turcotte probably doesn't deserve to even be on that list. Moore is like a lot of smallish players. Good until their first string of injuries and then eventual obscurity. Byfield is that unpredictable. A guy that needs to be a power forward in this league to have success but doesn't have the bravery to do all it entails to get that. Was it Arviddson that backed off Byfield? What a joke.. You can't be what Byfield is trying to be without having any bite, without being able to answer the call. Really anybody on a club could go up to Byfield and start punking him. Nothing he could do. Gentle giant? Unless that changes anytime its gonna limit Byfield considerably.

I think the Kings are in trouble. Add the LA fires and its probable to be a weight that is going to be pretty difficult in the backhalf of the season. The players or coaches or staff would either have or know people, friends that have had their houses go up in flames. Gotta be tough. I think all the events, if not the roster and prospects of facing Oilers again, it just whittles the Kings down.

 

[Drivesaitl]

The 4 on 4 was probably a better outcome than a power play to be honest. Even when we were playing well we couldn't establish much. They did a good job pressuring the puck carrier on the wall, and RNH in particular wasn't too interested in moving it along quickly.

Conversely, it was man among boys 4v4. They had no answer to it at all.

Sometimes its the surprise element of a 4 on 4 that is a trap too as at least on a pk your focus is defending. The Kings lost sight of that on the 4 on 4 and ended up being lethal. But again big credit for McD to find that situation, To get that. No qualms either for Kapanen taking the matching penalty and standing up for Captain. Didn't mind seeing that. Its a strange thing about players like Kapanen, Emberson, Pods is they been here for the least time but fight for the club. Literally. Kudos to all of them for having that in them.

Strange too perhaps that Kings had Byfield, Moore, Gavrikov and Soence out on the 4 on 4. Oilers had McD, Drai, Nurse, Bouchard. Thats a killshot ready to happen moment the puck is dropped.

Kings can cope and hang around at full strength but anything other than that and they just can't match up or shut it down. It was blood in the water and Drai smelled it and apparently is a shark. heh

What a 4some though, and 3 of them in on the scoring play. Nurse is really having a good season in most ways.

Putting Emberson out at the end was such a good coaching move. Big time confidence booster for him. Emberson has to be feeling great about his game now.

What a fantastic surprise this player has been. Even the kind of hard nosed no nonsense defender we needed under KK and Coffey schemes to help fill out the D core. This was a quiet good find for the org. That he's young as he is just makes it incredible how composed he is. I think he could have some playoff stability too. Doesn't seem to get rattled.

 

[popo]

Someone enlighten me but why does the media keep pumping Byfield when the guy isn’t even scoring at a 0.5 ppg rate?

Is there something I’m missing? You’d think with the way they are pumping him, he’s at least a ppg terror on ice

He seems like the anti-Moneyball type player.
Has the draft pedigree. He was the 2nd overall pick so he is destined to be an elite superstar.
He is a physical specimen, 6'5" 225lbs
Incredible skater, very fast

But his actual numbers are just good.
He had been on an upward trajectory, and the Kings banked on it with a big contract extension. But they might have forecasted too ambitiously.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Money Puck so dumb some times.

That 2 on 1 Kopitar to Kempe Cross ice dagger chance @ 15:09 left in the 1st period, maybe Stu's best save of the year stopping a sure-fire goal, given a measly 6.6% chance of going into the net. Premium passer to a premium shooter, one-timing on a gaping net.

The most dangerous chance on net all game? Credited to Kuemper, a net front dribbler pass and jam play from Brown to Henrique given a 41.4% chance of going into the net @ 19:46 left in the 2nd period. This chance right here:

Interesting point and no qualms. That was a 5 bell save by Skinner and against a guy that had the shot from his office.

The other huge stop in the game was Connor McD labeling an unexpected shot bar under. Tough stop. Not moving across but McD had other options and surprised taking that shot. Drai took a sneaky shot too.

But I think your post illustrates how the models are so imperfect. What are they really going on? Wheres the standardization, even the credibility?

I thought Kempe got all of the shot too. Another factor you didn't mention. How is that not the most serious scoring chance? I don't go to these analytics sites much. Can anybody answer how these probability numbers would occur?

 

[McAsuno]

That's been his shtick for 20 years now. At least he doesn't post fake insider info anymore so hooray for little victories.

Still waiting for his proof around near noon other than 'it does'

 

[K1984]

He seems like the anti-Moneyball type player.
Has the draft pedigree. He was the 2nd overall pick so he is destined to be an elite superstar.
He is a physical specimen, 6'5" 225lbs
Incredible skater, very fast

But his actual numbers are just good.
He had been on an upward trajectory, and the Kings banked on it with a big contract extension. But they might have forecasted too ambitiously.

This is why he gets hyped, not dissimilar from Pierre-Luc Dubois. Fans and pundits project what they think he should be on to him, not what he is.

If you're a big forward with some skill, you're going to get put on a pedestal no matter the results.

 

[powerserge]

Its almost as if the Oilers wanted a 1-0 result. I don't think its the case but its almost harder as I stated for the Kings to lose to us 1-0. Even how they lost. When a team gets beat say 4-2 you know that theres probably some different things you can do. Play tighter, play harder. This was the Kings A game. Its all they got. This was quantum better effort from Kings team than they got against Calgary. It wasn't enough, and a sense that the Oilers are playing Cat and mouse.

Gotta be demoralizing to look down the Kings bench and a 37yr old star center is still your best player. Still leading the way. Thats a great look I guess for Kopitar, I don't know how he does it because that club is going nowhere, but its made even worse for guys like that or other competitors like Danault to be on a team that just doesn't have that hope. Danault looks destroyed. Guy needs to be on a better club.

The Kings quick set rebuild has failed. All you have from that now is Byfield. Moore, Turcotte, Clarke. Turcotte probably doesn't deserve to even be on that list. Moore is like a lot of smallish players. Good until their first string of injuries and then eventual obscurity. Byfield is that unpredictable. A guy that needs to be a power forward in this league to have success but doesn't have the bravery to do all it entails to get that. Was it Arviddson that backed off Byfield? What a joke.. You can't be what Byfield is trying to be without having any bite, without being able to answer the call. Really anybody on a club could go up to Byfield and start punking him. Nothing he could do. Gentle giant? Unless that changes anytime its gonna limit Byfield considerably.

I think the Kings are in trouble. Add the LA fires and its probable to be a weight that is going to be pretty difficult in the backhalf of the season. The players or coaches or staff would either have or know people, friends that have had their houses go up in flames. Gotta be tough. I think all the events, if not the roster and prospects of facing Oilers again, it just whittles the Kings down.

Think the Kings are fine. Of course what you say is true but it can go the other way as well. Extra motivation. Just like we have had here. LA Rams showed up, Kings could be real tough to beat and do not want to face them yet again.

 

[Drivesaitl]

He seems like the anti-Moneyball type player.
Has the draft pedigree. He was the 2nd overall pick so he is destined to be an elite superstar.
He is a physical specimen, 6'5" 225lbs
Incredible skater, very fast

But his actual numbers are just good.
He had been on an upward trajectory, and the Kings banked on it with a big contract extension. But they might have forecasted too ambitiously.

Like I mentioned earlier such analytics doesn't quantify the fight in the dog. Whether the player has a mean streak. Whether the player will be dirty enough to give himself more room. While Byfield uses his size somewhat to protect pucks or get into spots he's not physically dominating nearly as much as he can be. I watch some of the games. I'm spotting a lot of instances where Byfield is pretending to be tough in a puck situation or scrum then somebody tunes him in. He appears to have no answer for that. I don't think he's a fighter, he doesn't have to be, neither are McD or Drai but they have a drive that never stops and won't be contained. Conversely go at Byfield and he appears to back off. It appears to impact his game. Its a big limiter, I think, in his game. He'll look like a power forward for portions of games but then something happens and it backs him off what has to be his game.

At least Byfield is a 200ft player. What a complete joke Fiala is out there. Kings can't even trade him now. Talk about underperformance. Fiala is a one zone player that is awful for GA and he's not even producing.

Seems like the Fiala problems starting up again. LA have a huge problem with this player and contract now. He's not doing a thing. He's showing why Minny let him go. Far back as the Wild they knew what an uncommitted shithead Fiala is.

The Sporting Tribune

www.thesportingtribune.com

This quote from an unidentified coach, I suspect McLellan, really says it all about the player:

”'Fiala is a cute little player,' a coach said — and he didn’t entirely mean it as a compliment." The executive then added, "Productive, but he can’t really play in your top line or top six as much as you’d like."

Because Fiala is a fantastic disaster at dunderhead plays and made them last night as well. Even Debrusk picked up on it. "Kevin Fiala made that risky pass across ice even though there was no chance the pass was working" With a top production player you can even take some risk/reward and mistakes. But not from a guy producing squat. Thing about Fiala as well is any line he's on dies eventually. He won't pass the puck to save the teams life. he wants the goals on his stick only. Selfish player. Danault has 3 goals babysitting Fiala. A career low. Fiala wants everything structured around him, but as the article states he's not near good enough a player for any team to try to structure around him.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

We are doing just fine as a team.
By the last quarter of January we will be on top of the Pacific and top 5 in the league
setting up for lots of home ice in the playoffs

I still think everything is fine

 

[Slats432]

Still waiting for his proof around near noon other than 'it does'

I have no beef with anyone, but if the question is do slewfoots happen, the answer is yes. Is it quantifiable? Not easily, but there is lots of evidence. youtube.com nhl slewfoot - Google Suche

 

[iCanada]

Anyone know why our expected was so much higher when the shots were even, scoring chances favored L.A, and High Danger chances favored L.A?

I do feel that after the first 10 minutes the Oilers got better and better as the game went on. They were clearly the better team imo.. that of course couldn't bury a chance if it came up and slapped them in the face. But that's the Oilers... generate chances so well and finish them so poorly.

Depends on the model - but we had the better high danger chances, basically. How natural Stat trucks model works is like this:

Attempts are given a rating based on how close they are to the net of either one, two or three and then they are modified.

If there was a cross ice pass, they get an extra point. If there was a give away, extra point. If it's a rebound, extra point. If the guy is all alone, extra point. If the puck is tipped, extra point. If there is more offensive players in frame and open, extra point.

If player is contested, minus a point. If there's more defensive players in frame, minus a point. If it's blocked, minus a point. If it misses net, minus a point.

A one is like 0.01 xGF, not a scoring chance. A 2 (0.05 xGF) is a scoring chance. A 3 is a HDSC (~0.15) xGF. A 4 is still a HDSC, but it's more like 0.3 xGF. A 5 is still a HDSC, but it's more like 0.5 xGF. Etc.

 

[McAsuno]

I have no beef with anyone, but if the question is do slewfoots happen, the answer is yes. Is it quantifiable? Not easily, but there is lots of evidence. youtube.com nhl slewfoot - Google Suche

Well yeah, I know slewfoots happens in this league. Notoriously from players like Marchand or Tkachuk. But is it an often occurrence league wise? I personally don't think so. The OP spent more time trying to justify that rather than have any annoyance about our captain being slewfoot by a lowkey dirty ass player in Kempe.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Think the Kings are fine. Of course what you say is true but it can go the other way as well. Extra motivation. Just like we have had here. LA Rams showed up, Kings could be real tough to beat and do not want to face them yet again.

Doubt it. This is the worst the Kings have looked despite the record. They have literally no scoring verve. They have so many players that have dropped off production. Outside of Kopitar and Kempe the production is non existent, Fiala is back to junk bond player.

Warren Foegele is 4th in pts on the Kings roster this year. I don't even have to say anything else.

 

[KlefDown]

League avg goaltending is at .901, Skinner is at .902 and Picks is damn close to .900

is this because our defense is compensating for our shitgoaltending or are we just overreacting

 

[Slats432]

Well yeah, I know slewfoots happens in this league. Notoriously from players like Marchand or Tkachuk. But is it an often occurrence league wise? I personally don't think so. The OP spent more time trying to justify that rather than have any annoyance about our captain being slewfoot by a lowkey dirty ass player in Kempe.

It looks from my quick looking around that it isn't that isolated so between you and jts, it seems somewhere in the middle between isolated and often.

 

[McAsuno]

It looks from my quick looking around that it isn't that isolated so between you and jts, it seems somewhere in the middle between isolated and often.

I have videos shown after clicking your link that are either 1-6 years ago, 8 months, 2 weeks ago, and so forth, so idk..
I don't think its an every day/often occurrence still but that's just my opinion. Unless its from typical shitbags like Tkachuk, I generally see players not trying to purposely slewfoot others to cause injuries.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Well yeah, I know slewfoots happens in this league. Notoriously from players like Marchand or Tkachuk. But is it an often occurrence league wise? I personally don't think so. The OP spent more time trying to justify that rather than have any annoyance about our captain being slewfoot by a lowkey dirty ass player in Kempe.

Seems to be happening often enough in my viewing. Players playing with little respect for each others physical health. Its a huge problem in the league, not just the slewfoots but a league that fails in any sense of protecting player safety. Lets even talk about the number of times McD is getting drilled into the end boards and he doesn't even have the puck. Its just allowed. Erase him into the endboards with a late check. Zebras keeping whistles in their pockets. McD getting up time after time and saying "this is NHL hockey now"?

The hockey in the West conference now is basically roaming uncheked. Seen several games where there's 1 or 2 penalties called for anything.

A lot of the slewfoots going on are sneaky and not even getting called. Majority wouldn't be on video on youtube. Some are even likely outside camera view.

League avg goaltending is at .901, Skinner is at .902 and Picks is damn close to .900

is this because our defense is compensating for our shitgoaltending or are we just overreacting

Is it even a question? Every metric has the team being tops in shot, chance suppression, puck possession etc. We're owning the puck and we have D corps that can play and schemes that are working quite well. Oilers haven't backchecked like this since Pronger year. Its the best team play this season that the team has had.