Confirmed with Link: Oilers sign Connor Brown to 1-year incentive laden deal ($775K caphit, potentially $3.25M in bonuses)

[Drivesaitl]

Well...8 games after rehabbing a serious injury.
Seems self explanatory.


If you have seen him good then why are you so concerned about the first 8 games?
If you know the player then you should be willing to use a larger sample size.

The larger sample size is a 90 goal career.

Look if the window for this player was expected to be longterm project, will take a long time to get going than it seems like Holland putting a 10 game window on assessment was very poor strategy and as per Browns interview today he's not going anywhere, still believes he can play, and still overstating his less than meager contribution.

Brown had 12mths to rehab. He had captain skates, he had TC he had preseason games. We're looking at Connor Brown looking like a dud and its been almost 2mths since he got here.

That said all along one of my misgivings about obtaining this player was the year off and what that likely does to a player trajectory of any sort. In the case of a player that struggled often to score in the first place it wasn't looking like this would be a sound topsix fit here.

 

[oobga]

There is no way that Holland was going to exercise that option. No GM signs a free agent player and then trades him after an 8 game sample size. Bonuses or not its completely unrealistic.

Holland had to figure out a way to add a player to a team that was maxed out on the cap.
Deferring is what he decided to do.

The thing that I dont get is that you didnt like the signing AND (despite knowing that Holland wasnt going to waive Brown in the first 10 games) you also dont want to use a larger sample size to properly evaluate the player?

Almost no GM would sign that deal in the first place. And likely would not have pursued Brown in our circumstance in the first place. Or at best offered Brown a 1 year 1M deal or something as a chance to salvage his career, to play with his best buddy McDavid and a chance at a cup. Final offer. Just saw reminder Wheeler signed 1.3M for a chance with New York. It is what it is though. Bad evaluation of what he needed to do in the summer, bad negotiation in the deal, 4 years of Holland's bad cap management handcuffing himself.

We are left with hoping Brown can go full Pisani at the right time, that our D and goaltending that buried us last playoffs is magically good enough just because they are a year older, and someone else has to deal with 3M of dead cap space next year.

 

[guymez]

The larger sample size is a 90 goal career.

Look if the window for this player was expected to be longterm project, will take a long time to get going than it seems like Holland putting a 10 game window on assessment was very poor strategy and as per Browns interview today he's not going anywhere, still believes he can play, and still overstating his less than meager contribution.

Brown had 12mths to rehab. He had captain skates, he had TC he had preseason games. We're looking at Connor Brown looking like a dud and its been almost 2mths since he got here.

That said all along one of my misgivings about obtaining this player was the year off and what that likely does to a player trajectory of any sort. In the case of a player that struggled often to score in the first place it wasn't looking like this would be a sound topsix fit here.

Your misgivings about the player is justified IMO.
There was a risk to signing this player. I have to think that there was some due diligence done though and as I said I like what I have seen from Brown in the last 3 games.
Granted...I dont have a negative bias with this player

I am not defending Hollands poor cap management but what I am saying is that this player is way down the list of cap issues with this team. Its odd to me that this is such a central issue for you and a few other posters.
Is there a possibility that this has everything to do with you just being right?

The 10 game clause in the contract was never going to be exercised. Surely you knew that.
Brown knew that and so did Holland. It was a way for Holland to show confidence in the player he just acquired.

All that being said the bolded pretty much confirms that you think 8 regular season games should be enough for a player coming back from this injury.
That suggests a very strong bias against the player simply because its not at all realistic.

I am hoping that Brown succeeds here...you and every other Oilers fan should be too.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I've seen him for years. I feel like I have a good grasp of his ceiling already. Adding in how he had a pretty bad injury that is going to take a bit out of his skating and possibly his endurance. I'm judging him based on his history more than just these 8 games. The 8 games are disappointing of course, but I give him some benefit of bad luck still. The expected ceiling is still not a 4M player IMO, and definitely not worth 3M cap hit off next year.

More importantly as it befits our lineup the Connor Brown ceiling is not a topsix player here on a lineup with McDrai. jebus not even a sure bet with the skillsets of Eberle could figure out how to score with McD at this level. With Brown we've essentially got another struggling to produce winger that we figured we'd start out with McD on top line. He's dropped to third line, and curiously a line that hasn't scored a goal yet despite ample minutes. Call it the stone cold line I guess.

"but its coming"

McD vouched for Connor Brown being here and playing with him. Thats looking kind of silly at this point. Now a prospect of worth, Holloway, is stuck playing with no hands, no production Brown. But hey the guy smiles a lot and acts cool.

 

[guymez]

Almost no GM would sign that deal in the first place. And likely would not have pursued Brown in our circumstance in the first place. Or at best offered Brown a 1 year 1M deal or something as a chance to salvage his career, to play with his best buddy McDavid and a chance at a cup. Final offer. Just saw reminder Wheeler signed 1.3M for a chance with New York. It is what it is though. Bad evaluation of what he needed to do in the summer, bad negotiation in the deal, 4 years of Holland's bad cap management handcuffing himself.

We are left with hoping Brown can go full Pisani at the right time, that our D and goaltending that buried us last playoffs is magically good enough just because they are a year older, and someone else has to deal with 3M of dead cap space next year.

Blake Wheeler is 37 years old...how is that a comparable to Connor Brown?

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I'm staying open minded about this player. My hope/expectation has always been for a 20 - 25 goal guy with critical PK work to address a critical issue area on this team. Feel though he's been overhyped by some for the prospective impact he would have.

There's some fallacy about this guy getting more money and better offers elsewhere. This interview reinforces his expectation to play on a one-year contract due to the injury. Hard to imagine that with the Oiler coming to the table with a $4 million offer with the ten game play uber bonus now about to kick-in. He's an expensive role player for this team. Unfortunately, the Oil have not delivered really any free agent value deals to play here. Part of the myth making. But Brown has looked better in recent games. Will stay hopeful his game will start to round into shape. This team badly needs some secondary production ... (and to help to off-set a market rate deal on this player's return from major injury).

 

[Drivesaitl]

Your misgivings about the player is justified IMO.
There was a risk to signing this player. I have to think that there was some due diligence done though and as I said I like what I have seen from Brown in the last 3 games.
Granted...I dont have a negative bias with this player

I am not defending Hollands poor cap management but what I am saying is that this player is way down the list of cap issues with this team. Its odd to me that this is such a central issue for you and a few other posters.
Is there a possibility that this has everything to do with you just being right?

The 10 game clause in the contract was never going to be exercised. Surely you knew that.
Brown knew that and so did Holland. It was a way for Holland to show confidence in the player he just acquired.

All that being said the bolded pretty much confirms that you think 8 regular season games should be enough for a player coming back from this injury.
That suggests a very strong bias against the player simply because its not at all realistic.

I am hoping that Brown succeeds here...you and every other Oilers fan should be too.

The offseason imo was poor. We landed on Connor Brown contract and Erne and Gagner as PTO's Thats about as poor as it gets for a team attempting to compete for the Holy Grail. It wasn't going to be enough and to me its offputting that Connor McDavid in his GM advisory capacity was so high on this acquisition. Tons of teams picked up good players in offseason. Holland contractually didn't even give himself the chance to benefit from available players. We landed on injured Brown, basically because the other Connor said so.

So that here we are stuck.

Yeah I know the 10 game thing was never going to be exercised. here we are stuck watching Connor Brown not finish a thing and not anticipating plays where linemates are wide open. The guy looks to have tunnel vision. seems like the game moving too fast for him now. This can often be the case for players that have been out of hockey for a year and a half. Its hard to get back at this level, and no guarantee it occurs.

 

[Yuke]

More importantly as it befits our lineup the Connor Brown ceiling is not a topsix player here on a lineup with McDrai. jebus not even a sure bet with the skillsets of Eberle could figure out how to score with McD at this level. With Brown we've essentially got another struggling to produce winger that we figured we'd start out with McD on top line. He's dropped to third line, and curiously a line that hasn't scored a goal yet despite ample minutes. Call it the stone cold line I guess.

"but its coming"

McD vouched for Connor Brown being here and playing with him. Thats looking kind of silly at this point. Now a prospect of worth, Holloway, is stuck playing with no hands, no production Brown. But hey the guy smiles a lot and acts cool.

Brown isn't the problem on that line. Mcleod looks lost

 

[oobga]

Blake Wheeler is 37 years old...how is that a comparable to Connor Brown?

Brown was UFA with a busted knee in a very cap constrained market, and we didn't really need him. If he wants to play with McDavid on a contender he can take what he is offered. He produces way less than other UFAs looking for a chance at a cup as well that have signed cheap. If he wanted to try to milk a payday from someone else, he is free to as well. There was no good reason to marry ourselves to and be desperate to get this player.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Almost no GM would sign that deal in the first place. And likely would not have pursued Brown in our circumstance in the first place. Or at best offered Brown a 1 year 1M deal or something as a chance to salvage his career, to play with his best buddy McDavid and a chance at a cup. Final offer. Just saw reminder Wheeler signed 1.3M for a chance with New York. It is what it is though. Bad evaluation of what he needed to do in the summer, bad negotiation in the deal, 4 years of Holland's bad cap management handcuffing himself.

We are left with hoping Brown can go full Pisani at the right time, that our D and goaltending that buried us last playoffs is magically good enough just because they are a year older, and someone else has to deal with 3M of dead cap space next year.

Bang!

Of course there was reports of other offers but I sometimes wonder if its just the Oilers hanger on media releasing such gunk. As if there was massive interest in an injured bill of goods player that had missed an entire season due to injury. Brown is here, not anywhere else, and I doubt any team is giving him this contract and that we had to sweeten the pot. Offer him league minimum or even PTO and if he doesn't want that he doesn't want to be here. Who cared if he went elsewhere? What exactly would we be missing out on?

 

[Drivesaitl]

Brown isn't the problem on that line. Mcleod looks lost

McLeod looked best under Tippett. I don't disagree he seems lost now but far from the only player.

 

[CupofOil]

Not at all. Just wondering why the player you described is not the one that we have. Theres been zero benefit having this contract or player. None.

Because it's been 8 games and it's a season long journey, plus this is a player coming off of a season long injury so it was always going to take a while to get the legs back.

Maybe it doesn't work out over the course of the season but I'm also willing to give it...the course of the season before making final judgment.

 

[oobga]

Bang!

Of course there was reports of other offers but I sometimes wonder if its just the Oilers hanger on media releasing such gunk. As if there was massive interest in an injured bill of goods player that had missed an entire season due to injury. Brown is here, not anywhere else, and I doubt any team is giving him this contract and that we had to sweeten the pot. Offer him league minimum or even PTO and if he doesn't want that he doesn't want to be here. Who cared if he went elsewhere? What exactly would we be missing out on?

I don't get why there is zero reciprocation in this situation where you hear McDavid is vouching for a player. Why do we have to pay out the nose? Does this player actually not even care to play with McDavid on a contender? We have to pay them like we are begging on our knees for him to come here. It's bizarre.

If Brown won't come here for a big discount with a chance to win, all kinds of leeway to fix his knee and get his career back on track, play with his BFF McDavid, then you tell him to scram and get back to us if he will take a discount deal for 1 year. If he will take it and if he does well, the option is there for a nice extension.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Because it's been 8 games and it's a season long journey, plus this is a player coming off of a season long injury so it was always going to take a while to get the legs back.

Maybe it doesn't work out over the course of the season but I'm also willing to give it...the course of the season before making final judgment.

Fair enough I guess. Not sure the Oilers have the benefit of all that time and Connor Brown finding his game though. For that reason and many others this was just not a player to land on, for any reason. Connor Brown addresses none of the needs this team had. Yet he was our only signing even expected to be here.

I don't get into this premise that a player that has had a full year to recover and has been on skates reportedly for months is still needing so much runway. If your view is full season, I sure can't agree on that. I expected a player new here that was here on recommendation from captain would hit the ice geared up and ready to go. Not looking like one of the worst players on the team.

ps of course you're willing to give him all kinds of time. You're big on the player. But for posters that didn't want this acquisition in the first place its bloody painful seeing it, lemme tell ya.

You have to admit for all the press on Brown and how "perfect fit" he'd be here he sure hasn't been much of anything. Its the massive hyperbole about this player all offseason, not just from you but from lots of scribes that is kind of aggravating.

 

[Soundwave]

Can we use accruing cap space to pay off part of Brown's bonus too?

This is just a Jackson problem now, he is going to have to draw the line here and tell Holland we cannot have a 3 mill carry over into next year. Just can't have it. So if that means we're more limited at the trade deadline, then so be it, that is Holland's bed, he made it, he can now sleep in it.

Holland may be "this year and bust", but Jackson isn't, he is on the hook to re-sign Draisaitl and McDavid and he needs to be able to give his GM hire for next year and chance to do something in the summer and not just be handcuffed by dead cap.

If we don't get the job done this season, then the new GM has to be able to have the flexibility to make changes and we need as much of that $5 million cap rise as we can get.

 

[bone]

An interesting advanced stat about Brown...

He's actually 5th on the team for individual expected goals for on the team with 1.54. Also fifth on a per 60 basis behind only Hyman, Foegele, Kane, and (get this......) Janmark.

So at minimum it appears he's getting good looks and not converting. Hopefully, that's not a sign he has hands of stone and is just in a short run of bad luck that often turns the other way at some point.

Over his career, he typically scores pretty close to his expected numbers or even higher, so he's likely due for 2 over the next few games.

 

[CornKicker]

A lot of praise for a line that hasn't scored a goal with 10% of the season now elapsed. Right now its the all dud line. With respect to Holloway who I like. Worth noting as well that McLeods game and cotnribution has plummetted instead of showing signs of developing. At this point one wonders if he's just another player rushed in too fast that stagnates.

Yeah lets screw the cap next year when we're 30th place so far this year. Lets mortgage future for these results we're getting. Nor does the Flames game change my view. The Oilers through 8 games haven't been competitive and have only played 2 good teams. We've had the weakest schedule possible and also a lot of prep time between games.

But now we're gonna retain Brown because "hes' coming" and he's gonna be great or something.

If there was a poll about Browns first 10 games here and he had zilch boxcars I wonder what the suggestions would be on what to do with him. Theres a lot of brown polishing still going on.

what did you expect to happen? you have a 23 year old C and 2 players who missed chunks of the last 2 years with injuries? its not like the rest of the team out side of the calgary and nashville game have been amazing. the 3rd line is getting looks and will out score other 3rd lines. Or i guess you can say eff them and they are forever terrible and we should gas the whole line. depends on what your actual focus really is. short term success or have a team peaking mid jan to the end of june? Coaching as long as i have you have to put trust in the players that have the skill to make the team better. or you can disrupt the chemistry that takes 20-30 games to develop. depends what your long term goals are

 

[Drivesaitl]

An interesting advanced stat about Brown...

He's actually 5th on the team for individual expected goals for on the team with 1.54. Also fifth on a per 60 basis behind only Hyman, Foegele, Kane, and (get this......) Janmark.

So at minimum it appears he's getting good looks and not converting. Hopefully, that's not a sign he has hands of stone and is just in a short run of bad luck that often turns the other way at some point.

Over his career, he typically scores pretty close to his expected numbers or even higher, so he's likely due for 2 over the next few games.

I woulnd't bet the farm on it or Expected stats. Connor Brown just looks like a busy player at times.

But the bolded list is just translation for who's played in topsix. Basically thats it. Play with uber talent and you get some sniffs around net. But if you can't cash that ain't much,

 

[guymez]

Brown was UFA with a busted knee in a very cap constrained market, and we didn't really need him. If he wants to play with McDavid on a contender he can take what he is offered. He produces way less than other UFAs looking for a chance at a cup as well that have signed cheap. If he wanted to try to milk a payday from someone else, he is free to as well. There was no good reason to marry ourselves to and be desperate to get this player.

That didnt answer my question.

How is it that a 37 year old Wheeler and a 29 year old Brown is a valid comparison?

Because it's been 8 games and it's a season long journey, plus this is a player coming off of a season long injury so it was always going to take a while to get the legs back.

Maybe it doesn't work out over the course of the season but I'm also willing to give it...the course of the season before making final judgment.

Seems simple enough.

 

[oobga]

That didnt answer my question.

How is it that a 37 year old Wheeler and a 29 year old Brown is a valid comparison?


Seems simple enough.

How do you compare players? Just age? Or their ability to contribute? Wheeler may well contribute more than Brown. Wheeler could actually end up playing longer than Brown beyond this year depending how Brown's knee holds up. Both were UFA, both could get bonuses on their deals in this season. Only one had uncertainty about their ability to contribute at all this season. Kind of humorously they both have almost identical stat lines right now and play the same position.

Main dif between these players is how desperate we let ourselves be to get one of them. Wonder if Wheeler would have signed a 4M bonus loaded deal instead of 1.3M. Not that I would ever think that is a good idea either, even though he got 55 points in 72 games and had a decent pkayoff round (6 points +2 in 5 games) last year

 

[DingerMcSlapshot]

Blake Wheeler is 37 years old...how is that a comparable to Connor Brown?

And still getting big bucks from his previous contract.

 

[McDNicks17]

It feels like Ryan Strome all over again.

He isn't scoring, but he isn't getting scored on either. A bottom six that saws off even on a team with McDrai is fine.

Too many people worrying about "mah points". He's got plenty of time to pot the 25 points that a player making his salary should. (There's 172 forwards being paid as much or more than him this season . The 172nd highest 5v5 scorer last year scored 25 points.)

 

[joestevens29]

It feels like Ryan Strome all over again.

He isn't scoring, but he isn't getting scored on either. A bottom six that saws off even on a team with McDrai is fine.

Too many people worrying about "mah points". He's got plenty of time to pot the 25 points that a player making his salary should. (There's 172 forwards being paid as much or more than him this season . The 172nd highest 5v5 scorer last year scored 25 points.)

Of course it's about points on here. Always has been for the vocal minority.

 

[Spawn]

It feels like Ryan Strome all over again.

He isn't scoring, but he isn't getting scored on either. A bottom six that saws off even on a team with McDrai is fine.

Too many people worrying about "mah points". He's got plenty of time to pot the 25 points that a player making his salary should. (There's 172 forwards being paid as much or more than him this season . The 172nd highest 5v5 scorer last year scored 25 points.)

Points are points. The 172nd highest scoring forward put up 38 points last year.

A bottom 6 that saws off even is fine for guys making a million bucks like Kostin or McLeod were last year, not the $4m Brown is making. And let’s not pretend like he was brought in to be a “saw off bottom 6 forward.”

He was brought in to be a contributing top 6 forward. Anything less than that is not good enough.

 

[McDNicks17]

Points are points. The 172nd highest scoring forward put up 38 points last year.

A bottom 6 that saws off even is fine for guys making a million bucks like Kostin or McLeod were last year, not the $4m Brown is making. And let’s not pretend like he was brought in to be a “saw off bottom 6 forward.”

He was brought in to be a contributing top 6 forward. Anything less than that is not good enough.

Points aren't points haha. Why would you compare him to guys with a bunch of PP points when he won't even play on the PP?

He's here as a low-end top6 player to play at 5v5. Those guys give you 25-30 points. It won't be hard for Brown to do that.