Confirmed with Link: Oilers sign Connor Brown to 1-year incentive laden deal ($775K caphit, potentially $3.25M in bonuses)

[Drivesaitl]

This may well be it. Holland wants to give it all to win a cup this year and he may well end up using other assets/ways to maximize things for this season. It's understandable, but could end up kind of closing the window already after this year. We'll see how it goes or if this is the only move like this. So it's pretty much 4 million to Brown unless he has a serious injury, but I don't know his level (or health) now to comment the signing. Just wanted to add it's not like 3.25 million next year has no meaning, but hopefully it'll be worth it.

My whole sense was the club was all in on this season that just passed. Several of the top players assembled early for informal skates and get togethers and by about two weeks early. They all had career best type seasons. As much as thats great it also concerns me as 2022-23 was the year, everybody strove for it, and its hard to repeat best ever years for so many of our players. I think there may even be fatigue for some of the players. Two seasons running team has gone deep in playoffs. Add this to the backstagger of covid seasons and players have played a lot of hockey in difficult conditions. If its me I hit a wall with that. I don't know how these guys can turn a switch and be gold again, not sure how they do it, its gotta be very hard.

I could see the team having some struggles this season. Think there will be some fallback play. I sure don't want the players coming in early again this season. Spend as much rest time as you can away from the club.

 

[Whyme]

My whole sense was the club was all in on this season that just passed. Several of the top players assembled early for informal skates and get togethers and by about two weeks early. They all had career best type seasons. As much as thats great it also concerns me as 2022-23 was the year, everybody strove for it, and its hard to repeat best ever years for so many of our players. I think there may even be fatigue for some of the players. Two seasons running team has gone deep in playoffs. Add this to the backstagger of covid seasons and players have played a lot of hockey in difficult conditions. If its me I hit a wall with that. I don't know how these guys can turn a switch and be gold again, not sure how they do it, its gotta be very hard.

I could see the team having some struggles this season. Think there will be some fallback play. I sure don't want the players coming in early again this season. Spend as much rest time as you can away from the club.

Could be, but at this stage I'm feeling more positive. I guess Holland will put emphasis to the next season and the leading core feels they have a real chance if they push hard. I believe next year is another good chance, but it's possible Holland will have to start closing the window to make the team better than last year. It's hard enough to keep it as good and I also feel losing Kostin doesn't help (as he could've been ready to step into bigger shoes), but I'm still feeling pretty positive. We'll know more as the summer progresses I guess.

 

[GOilers88]

How much is the cap projected to go up next season? Cap friendly is estimating an $87.5 million cap which would be a $4 million increase. If $3.25 million of it is used on Brown's bonus $ then we will be even tighter against the cap next season with the Bouchard and McLeod extensions and there's a good chance that we can't even bring Brown back.

I think it likely that Kulak and Foegele could come off the books. Based on some of the contracts given out yesterday I don't think moving Kulak would be overly hard. That's like 5 mil right there.

When does Neal's 1.9 come off the books? If players like Holloway and Broberg haven't established themselves by the end of this coming season the team is in trouble anyways. You need some prospects playing decent roles at some point. You can't just UFA and trade for your entire roster.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Could be, but at this stage I'm feeling more positive. I guess Holland will put emphasis to the next season and the leading core feels they have a real chance if they push hard. I believe next year is another good chance, but it's possible Holland will have to start closing the window to make the team better than last year. It's hard enough to keep it as good and I also feel losing Kostin doesn't help (as he could've been ready to step into bigger shoes), but I'm still feeling pretty positive. We'll know more as the summer progresses I guess.

Interesting.

I think the team has been pushing hard for several seasons but especially last couple. I don't know how long that is possible. Doesn't escape me either that Drai turning 28 in October. Time passing as it does.

Also just want to give you a shout for being a fan. Several posters on this board type cast you as a one player fan and not as a fan of the team. Kudos to posting here and having faith in the Oilers club. Always enjoyed discussion with you.

 

[McXLNC97]

How much is the cap projected to go up next season? Cap friendly is estimating an $87.5 million cap which would be a $4 million increase. If $3.25 million of it is used on Brown's bonus $ then we will be even tighter against the cap next season with the Bouchard and McLeod extensions and there's a good chance that we can't even bring Brown back.

There's a 850k overage already in place for this season, so the net difference on Brown would be 2.4m. If the team can stay under the cap and not go into LTIR at season's end, they could spread part of that 3.25m to top up this year's cap

 

[Whyme]

Interesting.

I think the team has been pushing hard for several seasons but especially last couple. I don't know how long that is possible. Doesn't escape me either that Drai turning 28 in October. Time passing as it does.

Also just want to give you a shout for being a fan. Several posters on this board type cast you as a one player fan and not as a fan of the team. Kudos to posting here and having faith in the Oilers club. Always enjoyed discussion with you.

Thank you very much, I really appreciate your words! And it's mutual, I've also enjoyed the talks with you. I'm much more in the background now, but following this Oilers section pretty much every day. I've noticed some long-time posters feel too ashamed or something to like my posts due to my background as JP's supporter, but so be it, we all are human beings.

As for positivity, it's just a feeling so I could be totally wrong. Hope not anyway I'd like to think McDrai and others feel last year was a missed opportunity and they feel they can still fix that this year. I'm not sure about the goaltending, but other than that I think the holes can be filled with an aggressive approach that eats future. I think they'd better save enough cap and then make a couple of astounding moves at the deadline. If it doesn't work it doesn't, but that could maximize the chance of winning it all.

 

[Shanahanigans]

There’s no winning with you people is there? If the 3.5 gets added to this year = WAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH

if it gets added to next year when the cap rise a ton = WAAAAAAHHHHHH


you armchair GMs should just become GMs since you guys think you are amazing

Year 8 into having the 2 best players in the world and we haven’t won a single game past the 2nd round. We’re in cap hell because we have a 9.25 million dollar Dman who needs to be sheltered and an unplayable 5 million dollar starter. All self inflicted wound from the highest paid GM in the league. If the cap goes up by 5 mill next year, 3 mill of that is allocated to a player who won’t be playing for us. You *should* expect more from him. We’re close, but so were the Joe Thornton Sharks. Winning isn’t guaranteed, and until we do, criticism is absolutely warranted.
Edit: I like the signing, I really do. There’s just better ways of managing the cap than kicking the can down the road every time.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Year 8 into having the 2 best players in the world and we haven’t won a single game past the 2nd round. We’re in cap hell because we have a 9.25 million dollar Dman who needs to be sheltered and an unplayable 5 million dollar starter. All self inflicted wound from the highest paid GM in the league. If the cap goes up by 5 mill next year, 3 mill of that is allocated to a player who won’t be playing for us. You *should* expect more from him. We’re close, but so were the Joe Thornton Sharks. Winning isn’t guaranteed, and until we do, criticism is absolutely warranted.
Edit: I like the signing, I really do. There’s just better ways of managing the cap than kicking the can down the road every time.

and despite all this, the Oilers are one of the best teams in the league since Woodcroft took over...

hell, Vegas didn't even have a starting goaltender last year, after missing the playoffs the year before...yet still won the Cup

 

[Mr Positive]

and despite all this, the Oilers are one of the best teams in the league since Woodcroft took over...

hell, Vegas didn't even have a starting goaltender last year, after missing the playoffs the year before...yet still won the Cup

they also made all kinds of mistakes all the time, but always looked at the future, and not obsessing on what could have been if only they didn't throw away Suzuki or whatever.

Our team has so much going for it. I actually don't hate any of the players we have, and that goes with Nurse and Campbell even with their contracts. Nurse is overpaid by like 1 million. Big deal. Campbell is much worse, but with not very much of a track record here. Just as easily as he sewered himself, he could just as quickly reverse that, and had some good signs he was going that way in the playoffs. If he continues to suck, his NTC isn't all that bad so we may have options there, but as of today I wouldn't want to go that path.

Also, despite having an unacceptable amount of success in the McDavid era, it's at least encouraging that our best years by far have been this year and the year before. We have a few more years of Draisailt and McDavid so we are well positioned re-sign them because the team is emerging as a true contender. We may as well enjoy this period

 

[MessierII]

He gets entire bonus if he plays 10 games? That’s brutal they should have structured it differently. That’s terrible.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

I think it likely that Kulak and Foegele could come off the books. Based on some of the contracts given out yesterday I don't think moving Kulak would be overly hard. That's like 5 mil right there.

When does Neal's 1.9 come off the books? If players like Holloway and Broberg haven't established themselves by the end of this coming season the team is in trouble anyways. You need some prospects playing decent roles at some point. You can't just UFA and trade for your entire roster.

Good call on it actually only being a $2.4 million difference due to Smiths bonus coming off the cap. Neal's buyout doesn't come off the books until after next season. If Campbell shits the bed again I could see him being bought out next summer. That would save us $3.9, $2.7 and $2.4 million before costing us 3 years of $1.5 million in dead cap.

 

[Oilhawks]

He gets entire bonus if he plays 10 games? That’s brutal they should have structured it differently. That’s terrible.

Then I would be prepared to see him play elsewhere. It was only structured this way so that the Oilers could actually afford to sign him. The word was there were teams interested that were willing and able to offer term.

It was about the only way the team could upgrade at RW without shedding cap and creating holes elsewhere. It's a good deal

 

[Soundwave]

Then I would be prepared to see him play elsewhere. It was only structured this way so that the Oilers could actually afford to sign him. The word was there were teams interested that were willing and able to offer term.

It was about the only way the team could upgrade at RW without shedding cap and creating holes elsewhere. It's a good deal

Or a textbook example of poor cap management by a team.

If you have to resort to stealing money from your cap one year down the line just to ice a right side winger corps that isn't totally gutted, you have screwed the pooch somewhere along the line.

 

[Mr Positive]

Or a textbook example of poor cap management by a team.

If you have to resort to stealing money from your cap one year down the line just to ice a right side winger corps that isn't totally gutted, you have screwed the pooch somewhere along the line.

except this was a year with only 1 million cap growth, vs next season where it will be 5+. All this Brown move has done was even out the cap growth to make things smoother for us. Isn't that smart in our position? What Holland should do next is fight for the deals for McLeod and Bouchard to be at least 2 years. Then, the Brown overage would not hamper us too much.

 

[Soundwave]

except this was a year with only 1 million cap growth, vs next season where it will be 5+. All this Brown move has done was even out the cap growth to make things smoother for us. Isn't that smart in our position? What Holland should do next is fight for the deals for McLeod and Bouchard to be at least 2 years. Then, the Brown overage would not hamper us too much.

Well it won't be 5+ cap growth for the Oilers because they'll be sitting with 5 million in dead cap. Next year will more like another COVID freeze year for us where we see maybe an effective 2 open cap once you pay to replace Brown and Foegele with low cost contracts.

It'll be 5+ million in cap growth next year for teams that have smartly managed their cap and stayed away from dumb contracts.

 

[Mr Positive]

Well it won't be 5+ cap growth for the Oilers because they'll be sitting with 5 million in dead cap.

It'll be 5+ million in cap growth next year for teams that have smartly managed their cap and stayed away from dumb contracts.

you know what I meant. By your definition we have only 150k cap growth this year because of Bouchard's bonus overage from last season.

I went through it earlier. Assuming the cap goes to 88.5 million we will have roughly 4.5 million to spend, and that's after Brown's overage. The key players to re-sign will be Foegele, Desharnais, and Broberg. I imagine they will try to put Bourgault in Brown's spot at that time, or another affordable RW. That's challenging, and would be made easier with an extra 3 million sure, but not nearly as challenging (perhaps impossible) as this year's problem of replacing Yamamoto, and re-siging Bouchard and McLeod. And of course, Bourgault would have better odds at success if we waited another year before getting him in. To me this is just good management

Also, remember that Draisaitl's extension comes one year after that. Having extra cap to play with next offseason is just more rope to hang ourselves with. The Brown overage and the Neal buyout is money set aside for the big raise Draisaitl is going to get. It's not like we can use it to address a core need.

edit: I will say this: if Holland fails to get 2 years on McLeod and Bouchard (mostly Bouchard I suppose), then we will be in trouble.

 

[Soundwave]

you know what I meant. By your definition we have only 150k cap growth this year because of Bouchard's bonus overage from last season.

I went through it earlier. Assuming the cap goes to 88.5 million we will have roughly 4.5 million to spend, and that's after Brown's overage. The key players to re-sign will be Foegele, Desharnais, and Broberg. I imagine they will try to put Bourgault in Brown's spot at that time, or another affordable RW. That's challenging, and would be made easier with an extra 3 million sure, but not nearly as challenging (perhaps impossible) as this year's problem of replacing Yamamoto, and re-siging Bouchard and McLeod.

Also, remember that Draisaitl's extension comes one year after that. Having extra cap to play with next offseason is just more rope to hang ourselves with. The Brown overage and the Neal buyout is money set aside for the big raise Draisaitl is going to get. It's not like we can use it to address a core need.

Yes, for us the effective cap growth was only 150k this year ... instead of 1 million.

Which is part of the whole problem. We really could not afford even a tiny bit of dead cap.

We're going to be in another mess next year too, if they do not win it all the new GM is also likely going to be under fire to make changes and upgrades and is going to have dick all in cap space to do it with because his predecessor left him with a giant pile of dead cap that he can't do anything with.

We just have no luck with management post-Lowe. All you can do at this point is laugh.

 

[Mr Positive]

Yes, for us the effective cap growth was only 150k this year ... instead of 1 million.

Which is part of the whole problem. We really could not afford even a tiny bit of dead cap.

We're going to be in another mess next year too, if they do not win it all the new GM is also likely going to be under fire to make changes and upgrades and is going to have dick all in cap space to do it with because his predecessor left him with a giant pile of dead cap that he can't do anything with.

We just have no luck with management post-Lowe. All you can do at this point is laugh.

it's not nearly as bad as you make it out to be. We had to resort to this Brown structure, sure, but we didn't do any buyouts and we didn't ship out draft picks to send expensive players away. There just was little reason to do these desperation moves, but if we wanted the space we could have. What Holland inherited from Chiarelli was much, much worse than this. Holland is definitely walking a tight rope with the cap, with any future relief even compromised, but that's part of the game of trying to make a winner. He sent that 3.25 cap hit to next year but I don't think we are as "all in" as everyone says we are. I definitely see a long term plan unfolding

 

[Soundwave]

it's not nearly as bad as you make it out to be. We had to resort to this Brown structure, sure, but we didn't do any buyouts and we didn't ship out draft picks to send expensive players away. There just was little reason to do these desperation moves, but if we wanted the space we could have. What Holland inherited from Chiarelli was much, much worse than this. Holland is definitely walking a tight rope with the cap, with any future relief even compromised, but that's part of the game of trying to make a winner. He sent that 3.25 cap hit to next year but I don't think we are as "all in" as everyone says we are. I definitely see a long term plan unfolding

We are racking up a 3.25 million dead cap penalty and aren't "all in"?

I don't even care at this point, Chiarelli, Holland, whatever, none of them are good at their job it's just "well one isn't as shit as the other!", at some point that line of reasoning just makes you realize it's not good enough.

Holland doesn't know how to manage a cap, he was terrible at it in his several final years in Detroit and that's just continued here. Nothing really shocking about that frankly.

Like what did we think was going to happen? A GM approaching 70 years old was suddenly going to become a master cap tactician? He is who he's always been.

I feel bad for Staois or whoever is the next GM because if they don't get it done this coming season, then the amount of heat and pressure on the new guy to change things (Draisaitl contract year! McDavid's contract close to an end!) is going to be immense but he's not going to have the cap flexibility to do much with because of the shit he's going to inherit.

 

[Mr Positive]

We are racking up a 3.25 million dead cap penalty and aren't "all in"?

I don't even care at this point, Chiarelli, Holland, whatever, none of them are good at their job it's just "well one isn't as shit as the other!", at some point that line of reasoning just makes you realize it's not good enough.

Holland doesn't know how to manage a cap, he was terrible at it in his several final years in Detroit and that's just continued here. Nothing really shocking about that frankly.

Like what did we think was going to happen? A GM approaching 70 years old was suddenly going to become a master cap tactician? He is who he's always been.

I feel bad for Staois or whoever is the next GM because if they don't get it done this coming season, then the amount of heat and pressure on the new guy to change things is going to be immense but he's not going to have the cap flexibility to do much with because of the shit he's going to inherit.

I would agree with you if that overage were going to next year and someone like Draisaitl had to be re-signed. As it stands, I see the Brown overage as not a sign of us going all in. It's about cap management, because we need the money this year a lot more than we need it next year.


The McLeod and Bouchard deals are much more important than next year's re-signings. If those deals are only 1 year, then I might be tempted to go more towards your side. Plus with next year's bigger cap leap, of course we'd want to transfer some of it to this season

 

[Soundwave]

I would agree with you if that overage were going to next year and someone like Draisaitl had to be re-signed. As it stands, I see the Brown overage as not a sign of us going all in. It's about cap management, because we need the money this year a lot more than we need it next year.


The McLeod and Bouchard deals are much more important than next year's re-signings. If those deals are only 1 year, then I might be tempted to go more towards your side.

If you are taking a 3.25 million cap penalty for next season and not going "all in" then that's even WORSE, lol.

We need smart cap management for the next 3 years every year, at minimum. Holland is stealing from next year because he knows he's not going to be here and as such gives less f***s about that. That's gonna be Staois' problem, Kenny will be sitting in his cabin in B.C. counting his money either way while the new GM is stuck figuring out next year how to make changes if it turns out the roster is not there yet.

 

[iCanada]

But like with everything its complex. Multiple posters in the thread (not you) have made claim that Brown has had most of his pts in bottomsix and that if elevated to topsix this will result in pts appreciation. But if Brown is already getting pts playing with topsix wingers it kind of muddies that point. I'm not the one to deepdive the with/without stats but would be interesting to see how much production, goals is topsix or bottomsix oriented. It is a positive to me to note that a lot of Browns pts are EV. I like that.

My main point is that a player absent from the highest rung of hockey for 16mths is essentially an unknown. Its rare for players to be out complete seasons and for it not to effect them at this highest rung of hockey. Its a given that we don't know what Brown will look like. But I get thats why we have the opportunity to have him.

Nobody responded to the Turris thing even though its an interesting point, and inexplicable how bad Turris was here. Somebody made an interesting point that theres a difference producing under pressure, on a contending team vs being able to settle into also ran teams like Ottawa and do well there. Saying that in regards to Browns recent seasons in Ottawa.

I think it's quite explicable how bad Turris was here. He's a flawed player that needed the right set up of high offensive opportunity in strong defensive teams to have any modicum of success.

He never had that here, and just like everywhere else he didn't have a strong defensive structure around him and all the opportunity in the world, he fell flat on his face. Many of us saw that coming with the Turris signing. I certainly did.

 

[MessierII]

Then I would be prepared to see him play elsewhere. It was only structured this way so that the Oilers could actually afford to sign him. The word was there were teams interested that were willing and able to offer term.

It was about the only way the team could upgrade at RW without shedding cap and creating holes elsewhere. It's a good deal

It leaves us badly on the hook if he gets hurt in say 11-15 games though. The full bonus would still go on our cap and we’d get next to no LtIR relief.

 

[Whyme]

I would agree with you if that overage were going to next year and someone like Draisaitl had to be re-signed. As it stands, I see the Brown overage as not a sign of us going all in. It's about cap management, because we need the money this year a lot more than we need it next year.


The McLeod and Bouchard deals are much more important than next year's re-signings. If those deals are only 1 year, then I might be tempted to go more towards your side. Plus with next year's bigger cap leap, of course we'd want to transfer some of it to this season

I see what you're after, but I don't think it's of course. Other teams will be utilizing their extra cap and the Oilers can certainly use all the cap they can to be a better team. If the others get more cap and you can't use yours it'll make your team weaker compared to the others. This without commenting the actual deal. I also think this is about Holland making a push for his final year, but it gets more serious and more proven if Holland makes other "one year" moves.

 

[Oilhawks]

It leaves us badly on the hook if he gets hurt in say 11-15 games though. The full bonus would still go on our cap and we’d get next to no LtIR relief.

You have to take risks as a contender in a cap world, particularly a flat one. It's not like they could have afforded to pay him the salary that they would get LTIR relief on anyhow so it's a bit of a moot point. Any significant in season add is still going to be somewhat "dollar in dollar out", just not as bad as it was with all of the LTIR like beforehand

The alternative was signing a guy at league minimum and hoping he breaks out. They couldn't even afford to keep Yamamoto or Kostin with the cap as is, unless the plan was to trade one of Ceci or Kulak and bring in a D downgrade (lower cap hit), or trade Bouchard or McLeod instead of earmarking their raises (and creating new holes with trading them).