Proposal: Oilers/Hawks/Canes

[SmoggyTwinkles]

If we're talking two top 5 picks, that'd change things.

But if Edmonton ends up with another top 5 pick in the next decade, something is seriously wrong with that franchise.

I'd take the gamble on unprotected 1sts from those two teams, they will likely be very good picks, and possibly top picks. Not trying to put those teams down btw, just that it's a very tempting gamble.

If the picks are protected at all, that changes everything.

 

[shoop]

Are those 1sts from CAR and EDM unprotected?

Those could be pretty valuable aka both top 5 picks, could easily be a win for Chicago's future.

Which is why the Oilers don't do this deal.

Drai and a quite likely top five pick (pretty much guaranteed top 10) for Faulk. Big loss for the Oilers

Yakupov for a late second is a win for the Oilers, but doesn't add enough for the trade to work.

As long as the Hawks won't be able to sign Panarin this works for the Hawks and Canes.

 

[Roboturner913]

Aho-Draisatl-Panarin
Skinner-Rask-Teravainen
Lindholm-Staal-Stempniak
DiGiuseppe-Nestrasil-Stalberg
Nordstrom

Hanifin-Slavin
Hainsey-Pesce
Fleury-Tennyson
Murphy

That's dope

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Ok, so Yakupov for Berglund has been made.

Faulk
Lindholm

For

Puljujarvi
Draisaitl

That's probably the ask IMO, not saying either team would do it.

I'd decline that offer as much as I like both players from the Canes.

 

[snipes]

Ok, so Yakupov for Berglund has been made.

Faulk
Lindholm

For

Puljujarvi
Draisaitl

That's probably the ask IMO, not saying either team would do it.

Yakupov for Berglund I think is fair for both sides as has been discussed.

Value is fair in your proposal. Faulk is a #1 RHD with a cap hit under 5M. I'd think long and hard about that deal, but likely couldn't pull the trigger. Expansion draft considerations being the tie breaker.

Pulju is expansion draft exempt, and fills a massive need as a right shot RWer for us (although Lindholm is a righty). Faulk would be another player to protect forcing us to go 4 + 4 + 1 in the expansion draft (Klefbom, Larsson, Sekera, Faulk).

 

[MinJaBen]

As a Carolina Fan, I'd certainly be happy with that proposal. I think the Oilers might get good value here as well. Chicago probably doesn't. I can't imaging that if the Oilers and the Canes both plug the big holes they have in their lineups that those two 1st round picks would be inside the top-10, let alone the top-5. Chicago should pass on this unless the money just can't be moved in another area.

 

[Bubba88]

That's bad. At least, give the Hawks Faulk or Draisaitl

 

[HawkeyTalkMan]

Aho-Draisatl-Panarin
Skinner-Rask-Teravainen
Lindholm-Staal-Stempniak
DiGiuseppe-Nestrasil-Stalberg
Nordstrom

Hanifin-Slavin
Hainsey-Pesce
Fleury-Tennyson
Murphy

That's dope

They wouldnt ever get out of the 2nd round. Most undersized top 6 in the NHL

Here is a breakdown of each top 6 player:


5'11 173lb - 6'1 214lb - 5'11 170lb
5'11 200lb 6'2 200lb - 5'11 178lb

trust me, I am not an "its all about size" monger like LAK and BOS are and I do agree undersized players can thrive in the NHL, but not when pretty much 5 of your top 6 just cant win physical battles or get to the crease

 

[Homesick]

Which is why the Oilers don't do this deal.

Drai and a quite likely top five pick (pretty much guaranteed top 10) for Faulk. Big loss for the Oilers

Yakupov for a late second is a win for the Oilers, but doesn't add enough for the trade to work.

As long as the Hawks won't be able to sign Panarin this works for the Hawks and Canes.

Screw that. If the Oilers are picking top 5 again with a line up of-
Lucic-McDavid-Yakupov
Pouliot-RNH-Eberle
Maroon-?-Puljujarvi
Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian
Sekera-Faulk
Klefbom-Larsson
Davidson-Fayne
Talbot

then they might as well fold the franchise. I'd ship Draisaitl and an unprotected 1st out for Faulk quite easily

 

[JLarucci23]

No deal from the Hawks side. If we are gonna lose Panarin its gonna be in a trade with one team and they are forking over a whole bunch.

 

[zar]

Screw that. If the Oilers are picking top 5 again with a line up of-
Lucic-McDavid-Yakupov
Pouliot-RNH-Eberle
Maroon-?-Puljujarvi
Hendricks-Letestu-Kassian
Sekera-Faulk
Klefbom-Larsson
Davidson-Fayne
Talbot

then they might as well fold the franchise. I'd ship Draisaitl and an unprotected 1st out for Faulk quite easily

Agreed 100%

 

[48g90a138pts]

Well there goes Chiarelli's plan to move Draisaitl to RW.

I'm not warming up to the idea of loosing Draisaitl, Yakupov and next years 1st rnd for Faulk and a draft pick we really don't need. That's alot to give up for one defenseman. Fans are already very upset about the Hall and Larsson trade. No way the Oilers end up overpaying for another player at this point in time. This is even worse.

Carolina gives up Faulk and a first round and gets Draisaitl and Panarin. Wow, that doesn't seem right. Actually that's criminal. Chicago gives up a 2nd and Panarin for Yakupov and two 1st. Unless they're protected 1st rnd picks that will most likely give them two chances at a lottery pick.

I think Edmonton ends up getting the shortest stick in this draw. Somewhere more needs to come the Oilers way.

Inevitability Chicago will move other players before Panarin. He's now part of the core.

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

From the Hawks perspective I'd rather let Panarin get offer sheeted and get 4 1sts. Awful from Chicago perspective.

 

[ManofSteel55]

To EDM: Faulk, CHI 2nd

To CAR: Draisaitl, Panarin

To CHI: Yakupov, EDM 1st, CAR 1st

Let's say Panarin prices himself out of Chicago.

I don't see any of these teams doing it, and here's why.


Chicago gives away Panarin for question marks and futures. They are a contending team now, those picks don't do them any good. And Panarin has great chemistry with Kane, Yakupov might not (probably wouldn't) have that same chemistry.

Carolina has one top pair defenseman, and a bunch of kids and scrubs on their blueline. They can't afford to move Faulk, it would ruin the balance of their team and force guys like Slavin, Hanafin and Pesce to play too high in their lineup, exposing them and possibly ruining their development. They are getting good value, but positionally it doesn't work.

Edmonton might do it. Might, but I doubt it. I think Chiarelli values Draisaitl very highly, and if he were to move him for Faulk, I don't think he includes the 1st too. Drai was very good last year, a solid 2nd line guy and he has legit #1 potential.

 

[oilerbear]

To EDM: Faulk, CHI 2nd

To CAR: Draisaitl, Panarin

To CHI: Yakupov, EDM 1st, CAR 1st

Let's say Panarin prices himself out of Chicago.

Dman GF/ GA influence:

EVGF:
top 300 EVG scorers 273 are forwards who generate 93.8% of 3242 goals.
Dmen 27 get 6.2% of goals.
the #10-14 Forwards and #2-6 Dmen score evg at a 1 to 1 rate.
Dmen have almost no affect on +ve Even Goal differential.
It is all driven by Forwards.

PPGF:
4 of the top 75 PPG scorers are Dmen 65 of the goals are from Dmen.
In the top 150 PPG scoring players 14 are Dmen.
Dmen get 8% of the goals from the top 150 PPG scorers
They have almost zero PPG affect

The only thing a dman needs to do offensively is pass the Puck to the forwards.
cause forwards generate goals at 4times greater rate.

Defensively:
The HSCA is 19% of the Ozone in front of the net.
10.5 of a games 30 shots come from that area.
75% of the goals come from those shots.
The area is almost completely defended by Dmen at Even.
there is a variance of 44.4% in shot counts from best to worst.
.444 X .75 = .333 a 33.3% potential variance in total even goals form best to worst Dmen.

PKGA:
Forward and Dman affect is equal on the PK.
the PK systems are designed to have all four defenders collapse to the HSCA.

Justin faulk is one of the worst HSCA d men in the game.
his Even and PP offensive production cannot make up for his just brutally awful HSCA defence.


he is what you call a playoff killer.

there is this mentality that Dmen have this great affect on Offence.
when the contribute almost zero affect on EVEN/PPG differential.

 

[GoldiFox]

Dman GF/ GA influence:

EVGF:
top 300 EVG scorers 273 are forwards who generate 93.8% of 3242 goals.
Dmen 27 get 6.2% of goals.
the #10-14 Forwards and #2-6 Dmen score evg at a 1 to 1 rate.
Dmen have almost no affect on +ve Even Goal differential.
It is all driven by Forwards.

PPGF:
4 of the top 75 PPG scorers are Dmen 65 of the goals are from Dmen.
In the top 150 PPG scoring players 14 are Dmen.
Dmen get 8% of the goals from the top 150 PPG scorers
They have almost zero PPG affect

The only thing a dman needs to do offensively is pass the Puck to the forwards.
cause forwards generate goals at 4times greater rate.

....[/B]

If only Justin Faulk would stop scoring all those PPG and start passing the puck more (to forwards only of course), he might just be a decent HSCA D (which apparently is very different from regular old defense because Faulk is pretty good at that). Doesn't he know that the average F scores more PPG than the average D? Very solid logic in this post.

 

[ClydeLee]

Sure, sounds good if the Hawks get 2 lottery winning picks for the 17 draft

 

[ManofSteel55]

Dman GF/ GA influence:

EVGF:
top 300 EVG scorers 273 are forwards who generate 93.8% of 3242 goals.
Dmen 27 get 6.2% of goals.
the #10-14 Forwards and #2-6 Dmen score evg at a 1 to 1 rate.
Dmen have almost no affect on +ve Even Goal differential.
It is all driven by Forwards.

PPGF:
4 of the top 75 PPG scorers are Dmen 65 of the goals are from Dmen.
In the top 150 PPG scoring players 14 are Dmen.
Dmen get 8% of the goals from the top 150 PPG scorers
They have almost zero PPG affect

The only thing a dman needs to do offensively is pass the Puck to the forwards.
cause forwards generate goals at 4times greater rate.

Defensively:
The HSCA is 19% of the Ozone in front of the net.
10.5 of a games 30 shots come from that area.
75% of the goals come from those shots.
The area is almost completely defended by Dmen at Even.
there is a variance of 44.4% in shot counts from best to worst.
.444 X .75 = .333 a 33.3% potential variance in total even goals form best to worst Dmen.

PKGA:
Forward and Dman affect is equal on the PK.
the PK systems are designed to have all four defenders collapse to the HSCA.

Justin faulk is one of the worst HSCA d men in the game.
his Even and PP offensive production cannot make up for his just brutally awful HSCA defence.


he is what you call a playoff killer.

there is this mentality that Dmen have this great affect on Offence.
when the contribute almost zero affect on EVEN/PPG differential.

Who have numbers to show that every defenseman in the NHL is bad. They mean nothing when you lay them out like this, and are very much not supporting the actual fact that Justin Faulk is a damn good defenseman. I'd love to get him on Edmonton. But he would cost too much to acquire. The credibility of your defenseman related posts was lost back when you suggested that Martin Marincin was a top tier defenseman for the Oilers.

 

[Rufus]

Chicago could get more for Panarin. They would probably prefer actual players to a bunch of first round picks that may not be high ones

 

[ManofSteel55]

Chicago could get more for Panarin. They would probably prefer actual players to a bunch of first round picks that may not be high ones

They can't afford actual players. They also can't afford to give Panarin away for peanuts.

 

[Rufus]

They can't afford actual players. They also can't afford to give Panarin away for peanuts.

While their cap situation is undesirable, if Panarin plays well enough to price himself out of Chicago, you better believe there would be a team out there that would give Chicago exactly what it wants to get him. That package would probably be better than Yakupov and two firsts

 

[ManofSteel55]

While their cap situation is undesirable, if Panarin plays well enough to price himself out of Chicago, you better believe there would be a team out there that would give Chicago exactly what it wants to get him. That package would probably be better than Yakupov and two firsts

That's basically what I said, isn't it? They can't afford to trade him for peanuts.

 

[Rufus]

That's basically what I said, isn't it? They can't afford to trade him for peanuts.

I guess so. I may have misunderstood what you said a bit. Sorry if I came across a bit hostile.

 

[JLarucci23]

He won't price himself out. Were paying over 3 mil now. Plus we have over 3 mil in dead space. That comes off plus Stan will move a few others proving the additional cap if needed.

 

[Roboturner913]

Who have numbers to show that every defenseman in the NHL is bad. They mean nothing when you lay them out like this, and are very much not supporting the actual fact that Justin Faulk is a damn good defenseman. I'd love to get him on Edmonton. But he would cost too much to acquire. The credibility of your defenseman related posts was lost back when you suggested that Martin Marincin was a top tier defenseman for the Oilers.

I've said it before, I'll say it again, HSCA only accounts for a small subset of a subset of data. 20 to 30% at most, realistically closer to 20.

Relying on HSCA to determine overall quality of a d-man is like hanging out at a doughnut shop for 10 minutes, watching 10 people coming out and picking the 3 thin ones to draw a conclusion that doughnuts don't cause people to gain weight. Meanwhile, you've ignored the 7 of out 10 400-pound fat people who waddled out and barely squeezed through the door with a fistful of doughnut in each hand and their 3 fat kids trailing behind them.