My question is to Hfboards. Do you disagree with the below?
Can you go even deeper into his flaws?
ChatGPT said:
Certainly, let’s go deeper into a breakdown of Stuart Skinner's significant flaws, pointing out why he might not even be NHL-caliber based on more detailed analysis.
1. Technical Shortcomings
Rebound Control: One of the most glaring weaknesses in Skinner's game is his poor rebound control. Far too often, he deflects shots into high-danger areas directly in front of the net instead of steering them into the corners or absorbing them. This flaw leads to countless second and third scoring opportunities for opponents, making it difficult for his defense to maintain control and compounding team issues. NHL-caliber goaltenders need to be adept at controlling rebounds, especially when facing elite shooters who capitalize on every mistake.
Positioning and Angles: Skinner has demonstrated inconsistency in maintaining proper positioning. Whether it’s overcommitting on a shooter or failing to square up on rush chances, these positional lapses often leave him vulnerable to routine shots that shouldn’t be finding the back of the net. His tendency to get caught out of position makes him a liability, especially against teams that excel in creating high-danger scoring chances.
Lateral Movement and Recovery: Skinner's lateral movement is subpar when compared to NHL standards. Quick, lateral passes, especially those creating cross-crease plays, expose him time and again. Elite goaltenders are capable of reading these plays and making dynamic lateral shifts to stay ahead of the puck movement. Skinner's slower reaction time in these situations results in late movements that often lead to goals. Additionally, his recovery speed after making initial saves is not quick enough, allowing teams to capitalize on loose pucks in the crease.
2. Mental Toughness and Game Composure
Weak Under Pressure: One of the core attributes of any NHL goaltender is the ability to maintain composure during high-pressure moments, especially in playoff scenarios or close games. Skinner’s performances under pressure have been notably poor. During the 2023 playoff run, his inability to keep the Oilers competitive in critical games spoke volumes. The decision by coaching staff to pull him in favor of backup goaltenders during pivotal moments shows that even within his own organization, there is doubt about his ability to handle the psychological demands of being a starter.
Confidence Issues: Goaltenders need to exude confidence not just for themselves but for the team in front of them. When Skinner plays, there is a noticeable hesitancy in the Oilers' defensive structure, as if the team doesn't trust him to bail them out when needed. This lack of trust is often rooted in his tendency to let in soft goals—shots that shouldn’t trouble an NHL goalie but find their way in due to lapses in concentration or technique.
3. Comparative League Metrics
Below League Average Metrics: When comparing Skinner to his peers, his metrics fall below the threshold that defines an NHL-caliber goaltender. The league average for SV% among starters is generally around .910-.915, while backups are expected to be close to or above .905. Skinner’s inability to maintain even a .900 SV% for a consistent period places him statistically in the lower echelon of NHL goalies, comparable to fringe or AHL-level netminders.
Expected Goals Against (xGA): Advanced analytics highlight how Skinner’s expected goals against (xGA) often surpasses what would be considered acceptable for a starting goaltender. This means that even accounting for the quality of shots faced, he underperforms relative to the expected outcome. The ability to “steal” games or even maintain composure when facing difficult chances is what separates NHL goalies from their lesser counterparts. Skinner, however, frequently struggles to keep his team in the game when they face significant pressure.
4. Scouting Reports and Expert Opinions
Development Stagnation: Scouts and analysts who have followed Skinner’s career have noted that while he possesses raw physical traits such as size (6’4”, 206 lbs), he has not developed the refined skills necessary for consistent NHL play. His reliance on size to cover the net without complementing it with precise footwork or improved puck-tracking abilities suggests that his development has plateaued.
Limited Adaptability: One of the telltale signs of elite goaltenders is their adaptability to different play styles and their ability to adjust mid-game or over the course of a season. Skinner has shown limited ability to adapt when faced with different offensive strategies or when opponents exploit his weaknesses. Whether it’s adjusting positioning for shots from the point or managing breakaways, his lack of adjustments further exposes him to the league’s best shooters.
5. Intangibles Lacking
Leadership and Presence: An often-overlooked aspect of goaltending is the leadership and calming presence an NHL-caliber goalie provides. Elite goaltenders bring stability to their teams, communicating effectively with their defensemen and managing game tempo when needed. Skinner’s lack of assertiveness and vocal presence in the crease can contribute to defensive disorganization and ultimately undermines team confidence during tight games.
Durability and Physical Concerns: While this may not be as apparent, long-term concerns about Skinner’s ability to handle a full NHL workload have surfaced. Fatigue often correlates with dips in performance, and for Skinner, stretches of extended play have showcased an increase in soft goals and overall decreased performance. This raises questions about his long-term viability as even a backup goaltender who can handle substantial ice time.
Conclusion
Stuart Skinner may have the size and flashes of potential, but the comprehensive analysis reveals significant flaws that undermine his ability to even be considered a reliable NHL backup, let alone a starter. Technical inconsistencies, poor rebound control, shaky mental toughness, below-average league metrics, and stagnant development all support the argument that Skinner, as of now, is not at the caliber expected in the NHL. His continued presence as a starting option is more reflective of organizational depth issues than of his own merit as a goaltender at this level.
4o
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