Confirmed with Link: Oilers Do Not Match Broberg ($4.58M X2) & Holloway ($2.29M x 2) Offer Sheets | Oilers acquire STL 3rd '28 & Paul Fischer for Futures

[Tobias Kahun]

It's the information available. There's no evidence the Oilers submitted more than initial offers or actively negotiated with the two young players. They made market comparable offers but nothing to indicate there was follow up, progressive discussions. We saw with last year's McLeod negotiation there was movement that led to a surprising (to me) over $2 million contract in early August.

“The way it’s being portrayed is also a little bit unfair, that the Oilers were doing some sort of poor-faith negotiating,” Bowman said. “If you look at both those players, based on their performance, there’s lots of comparable players that have signed this summer and recent years.”

McLeod was also a lot more established as a player.

And as you said, these players were offered market value contracts, and 95% of the time they end up signing them even if it’s after training camp has started.

 

[Fourier]

It's the information available. There's no evidence the Oilers submitted more than initial offers or actively negotiated with the two young players. They made market comparable offers but nothing to indicate there was follow up, progressive discussions. We saw with last year's McLeod negotiation there was movement that led to a surprising (to me) over $2 million contract in early August.

“The way it’s being portrayed is also a little bit unfair, that the Oilers were doing some sort of poor-faith negotiating,” Bowman said. “If you look at both those players, based on their performance, there’s lots of comparable players that have signed this summer and recent years.”

Why should they have gone beyond market comparable offers? That is quite literally what you want a responsible manager to do. We went through Chia's death by a thousand cuts and saw how that turned out.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Both can be true. History and precedent setting only happens because one party is caught unaware and forced to be reactive to it. Think any NHL team will be caught again in these circumstances?

So when contenders are up against the cap and still sign the RFA’s late in summer without an offer sheet are you going to question if they’re asleep at the wheel?

 

[Fourier]

Both can be true. History and precedent setting only happens because one party is caught unaware and forced to be reactive to it. Think any NHL team will be caught again in these circumstances?

Again, how do you know that the Oilers were caught unaware. They may not have anticipated this move but because St. Louis offered two kids way more than they were worth does not mean that the Oilers should have done anything to prevent it if the players were not going to sign fair deals.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

The Oilers are really no different than pretty much every contender since the cap came into play. Almost every year the top teams hit July with cap constraints and still guys like Holloway and Broberg always either sign cheap or it takes till the end of the summer.

And I don't actually think a proactive trade would have been much better. Broberg effectively got a decent 2nd, a 3rd and a prospect that we know here is actually trending quite well. Do you think any team gives you more than that if they also know the guy is looking to get paid. As I said Ottawa had to let Brannstrom walk with a $2M QO. CBJ let Boqvist walk facing a QO of $2.6M. Yes he has injury concerns but this is the consequence of over paying a player who has promise that is still unrealized. Do you think some team would have given them a 1st. McLeod got way more than anyone expected so it is possible but that trade had everyone stunned. Trades like that are rare.

Holloway may have gotten a second from someone, but again its not so clear. And I recognize that there was a rumour about Buch, but we don't know the details and that deal would have been strictly short term and would probably have meant no Arvidsson or no Skinner. So what is the better option:

Buch for one year vs Skinner, a 2nd, 2 3rd and Fischer. And Skinner may re-sign cheaply.

It of course depends on what they do with the 2nd, how Fischer turns out and how Skinner plays. But it is not a no brainer.

Teh problem with the get one singed scenario to fend off the OS is that there were consequences and opportunity costs for even a $300K overpay. Bowman's comments pretty much confirmed that they knew this. That would cost them a roster spot for the whole season this year and maybe more next year. You could argue that the Oilers should never have been in this tight a spot due to moves going back over the years. But that is a different story. And I even doubt Broberg would have signed for $1.5M. His concerns were clearly also about opportunity rather than just money.

The market changed with $5 million more spending dollars and further annualized growth projected. Backdrop was ideal after all teams were stalled in the covid flat cap. We're seeing a growing player trend of restricted or draft players assert themselves to dictate where they play. Broberg was looking for opportunity when he asked for the trade. The offer sheet situation with double indemnity and a vulnerable team became exploitable.

We can both hypothesize over prospective trade value. Avoiding an inflationary offer sheet situation would be advantageous to all GM's including Armstrong. A big, mobile age 23 d-man with strong play in deep Stanley Cup playoff off a very strong AHL reset is an attractive trade target and challenging to acquire. Brannstrom and Boqvist share draft pedigree but with far more limited potential. Both had already received their second chance organizations to assess their pedigree. McLeod is a proving point in that we as outsiders don't know the trade market or player value. St. Louis for one franchise has a wealth of young pedigree forwards that could have been offered up for an NHL ready d-man to fill their now roster need.

Holloway was a second target to get the big prize a coveted big puck moving defenseman entering prime years. Without Broberg, he's not an offer sheet target much like the smaller Robertson in Toronto. Don't waste the risk, money or inflationary effect of offer sheet on mid-roster wingers.

If there was such clarity on Broberg as you speculate, then all the more reason to take a pro-active approach to explore all options including trade. Know your hardline salary wise and make a tough call to move someone you know is not happy.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Why should they have gone beyond market comparable offers? That is quite literally what you want a responsible manager to do. We went through Chia's death by a thousand cuts and saw how that turned out.

They moved on McLeod's contract demand last year. Clearly they have a hard budget line for their support players. If the issue is a couple hundred thousands dollars you can likely find the negotiating point at which both parties are satiated. When you don't act to find that point, the market filled the void and inflated both players salaries well beyond the Oilers ability (and willingness) to pay.

Losing quality pedigree assets for pennies on the dollar isn't a good management strategy either. Especially factoring in years of development time and dollars. Chiarelli's and Holland's death by a thousand cuts was largely big money bad bets on age 30+ established players.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

This is the part of the equation that doesn't get recognized well enough. The market value for both at the deadline was probably a 2nd rounder at best. And that's if you feel like stripping depth before the playoffs.

Other alternative would have been moving them on July 1, but if they were already talking offer sheets at that point, then whatever team acquires them is going to be dealing with the same issue.

I think they should have put Broberg on the block at the draft and started fielding offers into free agency. This would of put the pressure on Ferris and Armstrong to spring their plan early or risk Broberg ending up in a less desirable situation then STL where the team had cap space to match any offer in the 2nd round pick range.

I don’t buy Ferris story that a guy like Jackson, who’s been on both sides of the table and has done a lot of good work so far, just ignored for weeks on end his most promising prospect who they were going to be integrating into the lineup this year. And then sent their cap guy Bill Scott to sit down with Brobergs camp in the middle of August and that was the only contact there was since the initial offer, just sounds like complete bullshit and I don’t think there’s any universe that Jackson would of done that if he felt there was any serious danger of the player signing an offer sheet.

Knowing what we know about how Ferris has operated in the past, I think the more likely possibility is that the feedback Jackson was getting from the agent was that the relationship was salvageable and them being only 500-700k apart wasn’t a huge gap to bridge so he likely felt they were going to be able to get something done.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

So when contenders are up against the cap and still sign the RFA’s late in summer without an offer sheet are you going to question if they’re asleep at the wheel?

Why would I do that? Do you think there's another viable RFA offer sheet out there after the league saw what happened with the Oilers? Dallas has cap space for Harley who's a more proven NHL player so the offer sheet cost will be higher.

Are there other contending teams you view as a viable risk with similar risk factors as Edmonton had (cap overage, public disgruntled player, unknown LTIR player)?

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

Again, how do you know that the Oilers were caught unaware. They may not have anticipated this move but because St. Louis offered two kids way more than they were worth does not mean that the Oilers should have done anything to prevent it if the players were not going to sign fair deals.

They should have been aware. They had multiple vulnerabilities beginning with cap space. They have an experienced super agent running the organization who's leveraged the CBA for client value including recent team negotiation with the Connor Brown contract. If the Oilers suspected the players were not going to sign 'fair deals' (team budget vs. market), then even more they should have moved early and aggressively to move the players. It was public knowledge St. Louis discussed both players at the deadline and by some suggestion the trade deadline two years ago. The Oilers were in the market for veteran players for the past several seasons and among their prospective trade assets were Broberg and Holloway.

 

[AM]

seems strange,

Its a tricky spot
Our window is right now for the next 4 or 5 years, we have to go for it.
However, even though I like what they did this summer, we will have to find a way to "go for it" and replenish our prospects a little so that we arent totally screwed once this window starts to close. We need to start doing that in tandem with a cup run team starting the year after next at the latest.

“Replenishing prospects” will happen July 1 and at the trade deadline.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I think they should have put Broberg on the block at the draft and started fielding offers into free agency. This would of put the pressure on Ferris and Armstrong to spring their plan early or risk Broberg ending up in a less desirable situation then STL where the team had cap space to match any offer in the 2nd round pick range.

I don’t buy Ferris story that a guy like Jackson, who’s been on both sides of the table and has done a lot of good work so far, just ignored for weeks on end his most promising prospect who they were going to be integrating into the lineup this year. And then sent their cap guy Bill Scott to sit down with Brobergs camp in the middle of August and that was the only contact there was since the initial offer, just sounds like complete bullshit and I don’t think there’s any universe that Jackson would of done that if he felt there was any serious danger of the player signing an offer sheet.

Knowing what we know about how Ferris has operated in the past, I think the more likely possibility is that the feedback Jackson was getting from the agent was that the relationship was salvageable and them being only 500-700k apart wasn’t a huge gap to bridge so he likely felt they were going to be able to get something done.

I agree with several of your points. That said Jackson and Ferris worked together for a year under the Orr Group so there is pretty solid familiarity beyond this client negotiation. Jackson is also infused with the same deep personal (and legal) commitment to negotiate the best deal possible for his clients. As such Ferris acted within the parameters of the CBA including common practice to ask around for market interest in his RFA clients. If anything, given the Broberg trade request and Jackson's familiarity with Ferris's aggressive approach to looking after his clients, then important to smoke out those intentions early.

I'm not surprised at all if, as reported, the Oilers delegated the contract negotiation to what sounds like Bill Scott. Jackson's shown his leadership style include trust and delegating to his management team. These are after all younger, secondary players on a Cup contender. If the active negotiation timeline was moved up, there's likely ability to make a hard decision on whether or not re-signing one, both, or neither is likely.

Unfortunately Ferris did his job.

 

[Mr Positive]

The Oilers contract offers were based on solid comparables. That's been disclosed before. The issue is that they misread a bull market with $5 million more cash finally coming out of the covid cap stalled years and at least one GM (the poacher himself) proclaiming that all things including offer sheets were on the table to effect change for his franchise.

Unfortunately the Oilers weren't able to do like Detroit who, in a different phase of development, could squirrel $17 - $18 million in cap space to ward off prospective RFA offer sheets. The Oilers were vulnerable financially, had a known damaged player relationship, and were lulled into complacency thinking that status quo would enable them to smoke out their two profile RFA's coming off playoff proving points. Bowman even alludes to his Chicago time when a similar competitive Hawks team were offer sheeted and would up losing a player. So it seems strange the Oilers decision with their vulnerability was inaction until the market acted in mid-August and re-priced their two quality support players well beyond Edmonton's ability and willingness to pay. Just like it did in Chicago.

They had executed a strong move to flush McLeod early in free agency for a pedigree, near NHL ready prospect off their cap book. A pro-active hard call on support, younger talent. It's not unreasonable to think they could have been more active with their prize RFA's to gage their ability to re-sign within a fixed budget line for each. And if not likely to do so, to actively explore trade options (which would naturally likely have started with the GM who discussed interest in both the past two trade deadlines). Protect your assets, mitigate against vulnerability, and manage your budget.


EDIT: clarified Hawks not double sheeted but lost a player when San Jose signed a player once the Hawks were squeezed matching.

That is where management failed this summer. We should have recognized how big the offer sheet threat was and traded those two.

 

[Reasonable Oil Fan]

“Replenishing prospects” will happen July 1 and at the trade deadline.

That sounds a bit scary actually
July 1 replenishment means overpaying for free agents usually and trade deadline replenishment usually means selling vets for picks
We are going to eventually need some high functioning ELC’s to maintain our window

 

[McDNicks17]

That is where management failed this summer. We should have recognized how big the offer sheet threat was and traded those two.

I don't really buy that.

Any team trading for them is going to want to talk to them before the trade happens. At that point, either that team founds out about the offer sheets coming and oviously doesn't trade for them or the agent tips off Armstrong and the offer sheet gets finalized before the trade goes through.

A trade only happens if Broberg/Holloway are willing to sign contracts at half of what STL was offering and I don't think that was ever the case.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I can guarantee there are a ton more offer sheets that we never hear of cause the players say no.

 

[Mr Positive]

I don't really buy that.

Any team trading for them is going to want to talk to them before the trade happens. At that point, either that team founds out about the offer sheets coming and oviously doesn't trade for them or the agent tips off Armstrong and the offer sheet gets finalized before the trade goes through.

A trade only happens if Broberg/Holloway are willing to sign contracts at half of what STL was offering and I don't think that was ever the case.

If we traded them to a bottom feeder with cap space then no offer sheet would happen, or at least they could easily match. Teams don't offer sheet players unless there is reason to believe the team won't match.

Even if traded at reduced value to account for this threat, we still could have got a lot more than we did

 

[Tobias Kahun]

If we traded them to a bottom feeder with cap space then no offer sheet would happen, or at least they could easily match. Teams don't offer sheet players unless there is reason to believe the team won't match.

Even if traded at reduced value to account for this threat, we still could have got a lot more than we did

A bottom feeder likely wouldnt be giving us the same stuff we got from St Louis.

We likely would've gotten worse value, especially for Broberg.

 

[North]

If we traded them to a bottom feeder with cap space then no offer sheet would happen, or at least they could easily match. Teams don't offer sheet players unless there is reason to believe the team won't match.

Even if traded at reduced value to account for this threat, we still could have got a lot more than we did

How much do you think they were worth considering their history.

They both had okay playoffs but that was a limited sample.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I agree with several of your points. That said Jackson and Ferris worked together for a year under the Orr Group so there is pretty solid familiarity beyond this client negotiation. Jackson is also infused with the same deep personal (and legal) commitment to negotiate the best deal possible for his clients. As such Ferris acted within the parameters of the CBA including common practice to ask around for market interest in his RFA clients. If anything, given the Broberg trade request and Jackson's familiarity with Ferris's aggressive approach to looking after his clients, then important to smoke out those intentions early.

I'm not surprised at all if, as reported, the Oilers delegated the contract negotiation to what sounds like Bill Scott. Jackson's shown his leadership style include trust and delegating to his management team. These are after all younger, secondary players on a Cup contender. If the active negotiation timeline was moved up, there's likely ability to make a hard decision on whether or not re-signing one, both, or neither is likely.

Unfortunately Ferris did his job.

And Jackson did his job.

He made the Oilers better during the off season.

They should have been aware. They had multiple vulnerabilities beginning with cap space. They have an experienced super agent running the organization who's leveraged the CBA for client value including recent team negotiation with the Connor Brown contract. If the Oilers suspected the players were not going to sign 'fair deals' (team budget vs. market), then even more they should have moved early and aggressively to move the players. It was public knowledge St. Louis discussed both players at the deadline and by some suggestion the trade deadline two years ago. The Oilers were in the market for veteran players for the past several seasons and among their prospective trade assets were Broberg and Holloway.

You still have yet to bring up any points about how they were unaware.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

I agree with several of your points. That said Jackson and Ferris worked together for a year under the Orr Group so there is pretty solid familiarity beyond this client negotiation. Jackson is also infused with the same deep personal (and legal) commitment to negotiate the best deal possible for his clients. As such Ferris acted within the parameters of the CBA including common practice to ask around for market interest in his RFA clients. If anything, given the Broberg trade request and Jackson's familiarity with Ferris's aggressive approach to looking after his clients, then important to smoke out those intentions early.

I'm not surprised at all if, as reported, the Oilers delegated the contract negotiation to what sounds like Bill Scott. Jackson's shown his leadership style include trust and delegating to his management team. These are after all younger, secondary players on a Cup contender. If the active negotiation timeline was moved up, there's likely ability to make a hard decision on whether or not re-signing one, both, or neither is likely.

Unfortunately Ferris did his job.

I think the fact the two of them working under the Orr banner for a year is pretty irrelevant, doubtful they worked closely in any capacity as they each represented their own clientele. Also, How do you know that he didn’t “smoke out those intentions” earlier and based on the feedback he received felt confident that they were going to be able to get a deal done?

Knowing what we know about how both Jackson and Ferris operate I find it hard to believe that Jackson would commit such a huge unforced error with his most important young player given the information he had. I find it far more likely that an agent who’s been known for shady negotiation practices would give incomplete or incorrect information because it was to his benefit, and he knew he would always be able to cover himself off down the road by saying “oh sorry my client changed his mind”. To believe that Ferris was upfront with the Oilers during negotiations you have to believe that Broberg sat on a 4.6M offer sheet for weeks waiting for a team he requested a trade from to meet a 1.8M ask, which is less then half of what he had on the table from another team.

End of the day, they should have just traded Broberg because they really never had a shot at signing him barring matching a big risky overpay. But it seems they believed the partnership between team and player was salvageable, sides were within 500k or so and team felt that a fair deal wasn’t far off.

On Holloway I’m sure it caught them off guard that an agent would advise a client of the forwards age and experience to walk away from the opportunity to play on a Cup contender that features two of the most productive talents of the modern era. I’ll never fault a guy for going for the money ever, but that was a mistake, especially right as you’re breaking through and finding some traction with a player like Leon. To me it kind of shows a guy who lacks confidence and doubts himself, and maybe the mangled wrist played a factor in his decision but the kid could have had it all. Ride along for a few cup runs with some generational talents and in a couple years if you held up your end then you’re likely making back that money and more or at the very least signing a Foegele type contract.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

And Jackson did his job.

He made the Oilers better during the off season.


You still have yet to bring up any points about how they were unaware.

And Jackson did his job.

He made the Oilers better during the off season.


You still have yet to bring up any points about how they were unaware.

Do you prefer inactive? The market forced the Oilers into being reactive when the horses left the salary barn. They had inflated salaries imposed on them by not dealing with the RFA threat that became real and viable on July 1.

His vision on day 1 was stated to build a sustaining winning organization. They have a hole in young NHL depth notably a succession plan on left defense. The current right defense I don't think can be viewed as better or good enough with loss of a 20 point, 20 minute defensive defenseman who PK's and their big third pair RD who also penalty kills and area defends with condor like reach.

It's not a binary thing. Oilers are improved for a short-term Cup run. The sustaining winning window has questions and gaps with losing a top 8 and top 16 NHL ready in-house young players only now entering peak season performance. Their prospect pipeline is viewed as bottom third of the league (generously) and hollowed out by this loss - primarily Broberg as big, young puck moving d are harder to find and acquire and a position that traditionally takes longer to onboard and succeed at the NHL level.

I've applauded much of Jackson's strategic thinking and management work from day 1. Thought he killed free agency including a savvy McLeod trade. Unfortunately they missed clear risk whether aware or unaware (I have to believe the former) and the consequences are severe. Franchise altering no. But I venture virtually everyone on this board was pencilling Broberg and Holloway on opening night roster after seeing them elevate at the hardest level of competition this past June.

 

[Mr Positive]

How much do you think they were worth considering their history.

They both had okay playoffs but that was a limited sample.

Their value would be 1st round picks at least. Holloway definitely didn't lose value, and even if Broberg lost some value, he was a high 1st rounder who just had a great playoffs. The proof that his value fell was also a small sample. Dmen are also expected to take a little longer, and Broberg is still very young. But sure, not 8th overall anymore but a mid 1st for sure

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

I think the fact the two of them working under the Orr banner for a year is pretty irrelevant, doubtful they worked closely in any capacity as they each represented their own clientele. Also, How do you know that he didn’t “smoke out those intentions” earlier and based on the feedback he received felt confident that they were going to be able to get a deal done?

Knowing what we know about how both Jackson and Ferris operate I find it hard to believe that Jackson would commit such a huge unforced error with his most important young player given the information he had. I find it far more likely that an agent who’s been known for shady negotiation practices would give incomplete or incorrect information because it was to his benefit, and he knew he would always be able to cover himself off down the road by saying “oh sorry my client changed his mind”. To believe that Ferris was upfront with the Oilers during negotiations you have to believe that Broberg sat on a 4.6M offer sheet for weeks waiting for a team he requested a trade from to meet a 1.8M ask, which is less then half of what he had on the table from another team.

End of the day, they should have just traded Broberg because they really never had a shot at signing him barring matching a big risky overpay. But it seems they believed the partnership between team and player was salvageable, sides were within 500k or so and team felt that a fair deal wasn’t far off.

On Holloway I’m sure it caught them off guard that an agent would advise a client of the forwards age and experience to walk away from the opportunity to play on a Cup contender that features two of the most productive talents of the modern era. I’ll never fault a guy for going for the money ever, but that was a mistake, especially right as you’re breaking through and finding some traction with a player like Leon. To me it kind of shows a guy who lacks confidence and doubts himself, and maybe the mangled wrist played a factor in his decision but the kid could have had it all. Ride along for a few cup runs with some generational talents and in a couple years if you held up your end then you’re likely making back that money and more or at the very least signing a Foegele type contract.

They worked together and directly on the McDavid application for exceptional status. So that's one direct point of intersection. It also was a smaller agency versus a super agency like today that often crosses over with large staffing to other sports and entertainment. NHL agency is a small world and business approaches by individuals are known within the industry and those across the table. Jackson has had seats in both worlds.

Per previous post, I can see where Jackson might not even had been involved directly in negotiations. Doesn't mean his strategic oversight and wealth of experience wouldn't have engaged internally.

It sounds nefarious and frankly victimy to think the Oilers were outmaneuvered in a fair game process within the CBA. They missed or dismissed a trade request by a disgruntled player and tried to wait out two contract situations which they knew had risk associated within the CBA to be offer sheeted. I also don't see Holloway as an unwilling dupe. His eyes were wide open to the hard truth of St. Louis or Edmonton and frankly sounds okay with the opportunity down the street. He bought into the Blues plan with the big bank invested in him to back up their sales job. I've never seen any lack of confidence in Holloway.

I think there is a trend of young players asserting more control over their futures through all mechanisms available to them. This might be another proof point that young players will choose financial security and opportunity over winning, even in leaving a team that was two goals away from a Stanley Cup. This is part of a bigger trend I see forming. Oilers unfortunately felt that an old business model and maybe the winning formula that has attracted older players would be enough to passively play chicken with its two young NHL players.

 

[La Bamba]

Their value would be 1st round picks at least. Holloway definitely didn't lose value, and even if Broberg lost some value, he was a high 1st rounder who just had a great playoffs. The proof that his value fell was also a small sample. Dmen are also expected to take a little longer, and Broberg is still very young. But sure, not 8th overall anymore but a mid 1st for sure

I'm not sure if Holloway would still be worth a 1st. Maybe to us, because we see the glimpses of excellence, but in a vacuum, Holloway has been a disappointing 14th overall pick. He'll be 23 this month and hasn't done jack shit. But who knows, McLeod got us Savoie... (which I'm still pumped about lol)

The one I'm mad about is Broberg... if they knew all along that he still wanted out, why not package him with Jack Campbell and avoid the buyout penalty all together? I'm sure there would've been a suitor (San Jose)

 

[Mr Positive]

I'm not sure if Holloway would still be worth a 1st. Maybe to us, because we see the glimpses of excellence, but in a vacuum, Holloway has been a disappointing 14th overall pick. He'll be 23 this month and hasn't done jack shit. But who knows, McLeod got us Savoie... (which I'm still pumped about lol)

The one I'm mad about is Broberg... if they knew all along that he still wanted out, why not package him with Jack Campbell and avoid the buyout penalty all together? I'm sure there would've been a suitor (San Jose)

I definitely agree that Broberg was the special one. At the very least he could have been the trade chip we used to fill that 2RD this summer. Broberg was absolutely a blue chip trade piece that we lost for scraps.

Holloway was good but not great. 1st rounders go this way sometimes. He was trending well