Bouchard is from the same draft as Hughes. He's 24 and did a bridge to age 25. So, he's 2 years out from UFA when his deal ends. I doubt he's going to take a 4 year deal til his 29 and look for another deal. 2025 would be his time to lock in $75 plus million.
You have a legitimate point. But there are two reasons why I think it could make sense. The first is that while he is an RFA with arbitration the Oilers do still hold a lot of cards. He could go looking for an OS and might get slightly more but the Oilers match unless it is in at least the upper half of the 2 first, a 2nd and a 3rd range. Not many teams can make that sort of an offer for a variety of reasons including the necessary picks and cap space. It pretty much rules out all of the teams anywhere close to being contenders. And for a bottom tier team the risk is substantial. If you are say SJ do you want to risk giving up a pick that could be a shot at 1st overall for a defenseman whose offense may suffer away from a top pp and away from the Oilers big stars. Not that Bouchard is not talented but let's be honest his production will certainly be tied to McDavid et al in the eyes of most. So if an OS is off the table Bouchard's best leverage is arbitration and at that point contracts for guys like Hughes and Makar come into play.
The second reason is that we are on the verge of a potentially huge increase in the cap. If Bouchard takes say 8 years at $9.5M my guess is that if he continues to produce like he is right now, by the midpoint of that deal he will be looking at a situation similar to what Draisaitl had where the money his is making seems like a significant underpayment. Guys like Fox, Hughes and Makar could easily be making close to $12M on their next big deals. Bouchard would find himself negotiating his next deal at age 33 or 34 on team that by that time could be looking to retool. There is a reason why some top stars have taken shorter deals of late.
At the end of that 4 year deal we are close to the end of the decade and the NHL is looking at $10B in revenue as a target. Even with modest growth $8B is not out the realm of reality. At that number even with a 6% limit on escrow codified in the new CBA you would be looking at a cap over $120M. McDavid, and to a lesser degree Draisaitl, could still have more good years left, and teh Oilers should have a lot of cap space to work with. At 29-30 Bouchard could be in a very strong position to go for a last big deal, 8 years in the $12M+ range.
So the calculation could be 8 years at $9.5M followed by 4 years at ??? or 4 years at $8.5M followed by 8 years at $12M+. The latter is of course more risky.
Perhaps reduce the term to three years to make the big increase happen a little sooner.
