Post-Game Talk: Oilers die on the Hill

[Soundwave]

When you collapse 4 low in a box all night in own zone its going to make getting clean shots hard. Thats the whole point is to impede point shots, passes and plays across etc. Its hard to play against and finish. The strongpoint of the Vegas team is their D , their backend and with Hill the right type of goalie. Hill is basically like having a third D because he boxes out. its one of his strongest attributes.

Well someone is going to have to figure something out then if the coach isn't.

That's six periods where essentially they've scored nothing on Hill.

The two goals they got in the previous game were a fluke tip in by Kulak off a point shot from his D partner (lol, that will never happen again even if you played another 1000 games together) and then a flukey goal from Hyman off a wonky board bounce.

That goal against should not happen against a NHL goalie. Bouch took the pass away, Skinner screwed us again.

If it's a tight ass game and one goalie has to be the one giving up a bit of a softie ... 1000% it's going to be Skinner that blinks first, lol. He is what he is, a glorified back up who can put up respectable numbers for stretches here and there if the team in front of him plays almost perfect.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I'll agree with Skinner floating early on in the season, but he's been playing more without the puck for the past couple of games effectively. Surely that deserves more than just a bottom 6 checking role, don't you think at least? I think he learned to change his game without the puck after being placed in a 4th line. We're having trouble scoring and having Connor Brown over him in the top 6 doesn't solve anything on the offensive side of the game.

The Oilers piled in 22 goals in the last 5GP before this one. Its not like they were continuing to have scoring trouble. (just some of the players) I don't think for a coach like KK that a couple games gets Skinner elevated. We don't lose this game because Skinner isn't in topsix. We lose because he failed on the 3 chances he did get, the 3 chances Nuge got, the 5 chances Brown got, and all the gravy falling to guys that just are not cashing. This isn't a pretty passing night where McD and Drai are going to get you the puck consistently through traffic and collapsed Knights ownzone play. In a game like this you have a decent chance of getting a goal from a third line that gets less in matching. Skinner should be able to prevail with who he's got and with difficulty of opposition he's seeing. Skinner tonight was the 2nd best player on his line. A lot of games he's been the third best on his line, in bottomsix...

I don't see the thought being that the 3rd line is just a checking line. Its a line that could be expected to get some goals as well. this line has decent skill, and should be able to produce.

 

[TheNumber4]

I was texting with my friend who plays goalie on my beer league hockey team (and played goalie his entire childhood). He isn't a Skinner apologist at all but he mentioned that you can't really blame a goaltender when he's already reacted to the pass on a 2 on 1 and the puck takes a fluke bounce back to the shooter. Your footwork and your timing is immediately screwed up.

Pretty much what Louie said in real time too.

Where are those adjustments on the offensive side of the ice this year? Because I'm seeing dick all. The only thing he does offensively is hit the McDrai panic button, but other than that, it's clear to me teams are zeroing in on certain things the the team likes to do, and we're not making any adjustments.

I wonder about that too. On the other end of it, it could be down to execution. And what he’s coaching for is chances and the wingers have to take care of the finishing. Tippet coached that way, remember just “execute better stupid”

 

[foshizzle]

Y’all realize that if we had scored 1 goal and won it in OT, y’all would be saying Skinner had a solid game.

And his performance doesn’t change in that scenario. Only that we scored more than NO GOALS.

But that’s not what happened

 

[McAsuno]

The Oilers piled in 22 goals in the last 5GP before this one. Its not like they were continuing to have scoring trouble. (just some of the players) I don't think for a coach like KK that a couple games gets Skinner elevated. We don't lose this game because Skinner isn't in topsix. We lose because he failed on the 3 chances he did get, the 3 chances Nuge got, the 5 chances Brown got, and all the gravy falling to guys that just are not cashing. This isn't a pretty passing night where McD and Drai are going to get you the puck consistently through traffic and collapsed Knights ownzone play. In a game like this you have a decent chance of getting a goal from a third line that gets less in matching. Skinner should be able to prevail with who he's got and with difficulty of opposition he's seeing. Skinner tonight was the 2nd best player on his line. A lot of games he's been the third best on his line, in bottomsix...

I don't see the thought being that the 3rd line is just a checking line. Its a line that could be expected to get some goals as well. this line has decent skill, and should be able to produce.

I'm not disputing what you're saying is entirely wrong, but like @TopShelfGloveSide stated:
You put a known goal scorer out when you desperately need a goal.
It’s common sense. You utilize players strengths.

Utilizing a one dimensional goal scorer into a checking line isn't utilizing them to their fullest. Nor is loading up McDrai once again which we all know does way more harm than good for this team, especially against a defensive-minded VGK club along with playing perimeter hockey until the final minutes of the 3rd. Knoblauch played right into Bruce Cassidy's hands tonight again.

 

[TheNumber4]

But that’s not what happened

“And his performance doesn’t change in that scenario.”

 

[Took a pill in Sbisa]

Man imagine if we had a goalie as good as Hill.

We'd be 1st in the league

does not matter what you goalie does if the skaters shoot goose eggs on the scoring sheet

We're at the point where its becoming too much to ask of our goalies to stop the first 16 shots

 

[McAsuno]

Clear to fricken day that Skinner and Henrique don't mesh well together.

 

[foshizzle]

You are so out to lunch you don't know which way is up. His overall sv % is 890 including all those bad games for the team at the beginning.

He is 75th in goals saved above expected. He is 60th in low danger save %. He is 65th on mid danger. He is 31st in high danger save percentage. None of this screams starter to me

“And his performance doesn’t change in that scenario.”

But the context does. He is again the second best goalie and makes one less save. If your scenario plays out he is the better of the 2 and makes that one extra save he needed to.

 

[TheNumber4]

He is 75th in goals saved above expected. He is 60th in low danger save %. He is 65th on mid danger. He is 31st in high danger save percentage. None of this screams starter to me


But the context does. He is again the second best goalie and makes one less save. If your scenario plays out he is the better of the 2 and makes that one extra save he needed to.

Let me say it another way. Stu’s Performannce doesn’t change if Brown buries that chance instead of whiffs it. Sorry that’s just how it is.

 

[McAsuno]

Also, mind blown. Jeff Skinner has more 5v5 goals than RNH despite exponentially less time next to the best play-maker in the world in McDavid. Skinner has a history of playing best next to skilled centers. With Hyman/Arvidsson out and a clear finishing issue, there's no logic of having him in a bottom 6 role while Connor Brown shoots wide or right into the chestpads.

Good night.

 

[Soundwave]

If you're going to load up McDrai, why not put Skinner on the wing too ... at least give him a chance to get a gimme goal and get his confidence going.

Knob isn't gonna do anything for the forwards, looks like they are just going to have to figure things out the hard way themselves over time, unfortunately that's probably going to cost us quite a few points in the standings (5 shut outs already, Vegas being gifted the division).

 

[guymez]

Stu Skinner was very good in this game and is not a part of why they lost.

A large part of why they lost is that Vegas defends really well once they have a chance to set up.
Aside from a few rushed in tight chances I dont recall any Oilers player having even one open uncontested opportunity from the slot. Sticks and bodies at every turn. Every single opportunity on net was hurried and contested. Even the passing lanes were choked off. McDavid didnt get a sniff in this game.
Perimeter plays were really all that was available. That prevent defence works.

On the Vegas goal...Draisaitl made a really dumb play just inside the blueline that created the 2 on 1 for Vegas. After they get into the Oilers zone an unfortunate bounce against the Oilers/lucky play for Vegas won them the game.

The key IMO to beating Vegas is off the rush. Stretch passes and lob passes is something I wish the team did more of in these types of games. The Vegas defence really isnt that mobile.

I have to say though that even though he didnt score I thought that J Skinner probably had his best game as an Oiler. He was good at both ends of the ice.

All and all not many (if any) passengers in this game. Sometimes you just lose a close game...especially with this team which is still struggling to finish.

 

[Soundwave]

Stu Skinner was very good in this game and is not a part of why they lost.

Part of the reason why they lost is that Vegas defends really well once they have a chance to set up.
Aside from a few rushed in tight chances I dont recall any Oilers player having even one open uncontested opportunity from the slot. Sticks and bodies at every turn. Every single opportunity on net was hurried and contested. Even the passing lanes were chokced off. McDavid didnt get a sniff in this game.
Perimeter plays were really all that was available. That prevent defence works.

On the Vegas goal...Draisaitl made a really dumb play just inside the bluline that created the 2 on 1 for Vegas. After they get intpo the Oilers zone an unfortunate bounce against the Oilers/lucky play for Vegas won them the game.

The key IMO to beating Vegas is off the rush. Stretch passes and lob passes is something I wish the team did more of in these types of games. Their defence really isnt that mobile.

I have to say though that even though he didnt score I thought that J Skinner probably had his best game as an Oiler. He was good at both ends of the ice.

All and all not many (if any) passengers in this game. Sometimes you just lose a close game.

There was one goal given up, and it was a bit of a weak goal, guess which of the two goalies allowed it.

I mean you can't literally say that had nothing to do with the loss, lol.

 

[Dan Kelly]

That game should've gone to OT if Skinner actually did his job.

To be fair to Stu the forwards needed to do their damn jobs and SCORE A DAMN GOAL !!!! As mentioned shutout for the 4th time this season in just 25 games !

 

[Keggatron]

Like it or not, that's a game 7. Game 7 style of officiating and VGK played a game 7 style of turtle mode. Still just can't generate quality looks, because they refuse to play greasy.

I started reading the first two pages and saw enough. yeah sorry this isn't a game 7. It's a f***ing Tuesday night in December. The fact they call it like it's a game seven tells you something pretty obvious. If you can't see that that you haven't been watching the last 15 years.

Caught a few minutes in the third, in a bar in Lima hilariously. But f*** this team is in our heads at this point.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

At a certain point this season’s results need to count more than past performances.

RNH is under a half ppg and is a minus player, nor has he set up or scored a goal from McDavid or Drai since Toronto (8 games) despite being stapled to them. If there was every a reason to take someone out of the top 6 and off the top unit PP, this is it.


Even with the injuries, there’s no reason why Skinner shouldn’t get at least a look at his spot in the top 6. Nuge might also benefit with simpler minutes on the 3rd line with Henrique.

 

[Oilhawks]

At a certain point this season’s results need to count more than past performances.

RNH is under a half ppg and is a minus player, nor has he set up or scored a goal from McDavid or Drai since Toronto (8 games) despite being stapled to them. If there was every a reason to take someone out of the top 6 and off the top unit PP, this is it.


Even with the injuries, there’s no reason why Skinner shouldn’t get at least a look at his spot in the top 6. Nuge might also benefit with simpler minutes on the 3rd line with Henrique.

The coach seems to be answering to the players at this point, which has happened before, and will likely happen again.

It's about the only explanation as to why Ryan Nothing-Happens (Lately) is in the top 6 while Jeff Skinner is a step away from the press box.

 

[Oilhawks]

Stu Skinner was very good in this game and is not a part of why they lost.

Part of the reason why they lost is that Vegas defends really well once they have a chance to set up.
Aside from a few rushed in tight chances I dont recall any Oilers player having even one open uncontested opportunity from the slot. Sticks and bodies at every turn. Every single opportunity on net was hurried and contested. Even the passing lanes were chokced off. McDavid didnt get a sniff in this game.
Perimeter plays were really all that was available. That prevent defence works.

On the Vegas goal...Draisaitl made a really dumb play just inside the bluline that created the 2 on 1 for Vegas. After they get into the Oilers zone an unfortunate bounce against the Oilers/lucky play for Vegas won them the game.

The key IMO to beating Vegas is off the rush. Stretch passes and lob passes is something I wish the team did more of in these types of games. The Vegas defence really isnt that mobile.

I have to say though that even though he didnt score I thought that J Skinner probably had his best game as an Oiler. He was good at both ends of the ice.

All and all not many (if any) passengers in this game. Sometimes you just lose a close game...especially with this team which is still struggling to finish.

I don't necessarily disagree with your analysis, and yes, they got shut out which isn't technically on their goaltender but you said it right there, they basically had to make mistake-free hockey to win.

It's a ridiculous expectation (IMO) that they can make 0 mistakes. The goalie is not consistently able to bail out nearly a single mistake. If it's a high danger chance / broken play, it's a goal against.

They need a better goalie, even if tonight didn't "look that way"

Skinner is not a Stanley Cup caliber goalie. He nearly cost them the series against the Canucks, and was one of the worst players for them vs Vegas.

 

[Soundwave]

Knoblaugh saying Brown was in the top 6 because he was racking up one timers in practice (probably on Titanic Skinner).

 

[guymez]

I don't necessarily disagree with your analysis, and yes, they got shut out which isn't technically on their goaltender but you said it right there, they basically had to make mistake-free hockey to win.

It's a ridiculous expectation (IMO) that they can make 0 mistakes. The goalie is not consistently able to bail out nearly a single mistake. If it's a high danger chance / broken play, it's a goal against.

They need a better goalie, even if tonight didn't "look that way"

Skinner is not a Stanley Cup caliber goalie. He nearly cost them the series against the Canucks, and was one of the worst players for them vs Vegas.

Skinners game is coming around. He has been fine for the last 3 or 4 games.
The team simply cant afford to deal for anything other than a backup goalie anyway so they pretty much have to be patient with Skinner.

This team is built for offence and its the offence thats failing.
After 25 games this team currently has 72 goals.
That is 2.88 goals per game. They are giving up 2.96 goals per game.

Interestingly enough they are 11th overall in goals against and 22nd overall for goals scored.
The fact that this team (as it was constructed) is 22nd overall in goal scoring is not nearly good enough.

This game was a perfect example what the major problem is with this team...its goal scoring.
The very thing that this team was built to do. Unless its a wide open game like gainst the Rangers this team struggles. Part of that is despite all the attempts Jackson made to improve the offensive depth they STILL dont have one pure shooter on the team they can rely on.

I have said this before but if this team isnt scoring then they essentially have no identity.
There is no other element in their game that they can fall back on and that has them floating just over the .500 mark for the entirety of the season so far.
That is a problem IMO.

 

[Soundwave]

Skinners game is coming around. He has been fine for the last 3 or 4 games.
The team simply cant afford to deal for anything other than a backup goalie anyway so they pretty much have to be patient with Skinner.

This team is built for offence and its the offence thats failing.
After 25 games this team currently has 72 goals.
That is 2.88 goals per game. They are giving up 2.96 goals per game.

Interestingly enough they are 11th overall in goals against and 22nd overall for goals scored.
The fact that this team (as it was constructed) is 22nd overall in goal scoring is not nearly good enough.

This game was a perfect example what the major problem is with this team...its goal scoring.
The very thing that this team was built to do. Unless its a wide open game like gainst the Rangers this team struggles. Part of that is despite all the attempts Jackson made to improve the offensive depth they STILL dont have one pure shooter on the team they can rely on.

I have said this before but if this team isnt scoring then they essentially have no identity.
There is no other element in their game that they can fall back on and that has them floating just over the .500 mark for the entirety of the season so far.
That is a problem IMO.

The team could do the same exact thing Vegas did when they found the guy better than Skinner ... take some chances on other goalies for cheap. One organization tries, this one doesn't. If the Oilers front office ran Vegas they'd still have MAF in net as their starter.

Knoblaugh has no offensive adjustments so the forwards are just going to be alone trying to figure out what to do with teams that having coach staffs that are actually making adjustments towards them, is what it is. Probably going to cost us any chance of winning the division.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

To be fair to Stu the forwards needed to do their damn jobs and SCORE A DAMN GOAL !!!! As mentioned shutout for the 4th time this season in just 25 games !

And how many shut outs does Skinner have? We outshot and out chanced them but it doesn't matter when your goalie spots them a goal. That was a perfect preview of layoff hockey against a good team. They are tough to beat when they are playing well, we can't afford to spot them goals and expect to win in a 7 game series against them.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Jeff Skinner scored 16 EV goals last season in 74 games... that's a pace of ~18 for a full 82 game season.

This season through 25 games he has 4 EV goals... on pace for ~13 in a full season. That's probably in line with what you'd expect with his usage in the bottom 6 and with the assortment of offensive misfits that he's had to play with so far.

I think many had pie in the sky expectations of what to expect from him... especially when he'd see next to zero PP time on the Oilers.

Not making excuses for Skinner but a 20 goal season was probably going to be about max for him without any PP time... and expecting 20 goals in the bottom 6 is probably nearly impossible on this team.

I could see him improving a little if he finds some finish... but 15 goals seems like a likely ceiling with his current usage/linemates/minutes.


This is a team with NO Oilers winger having scored as many goals as Brett Kulak... and we are at the 25 game mark now... so sample size isn't very small any more. Team may be what it is... a regressing offensive team that teams around the league have largely "figured out". (As a bonus stat... no Oilers winger has scored more 5v5 pts than Kulak as well).

I would hope Kane makes a difference when he comes back.. and at some point hopefully Hyman can start potting a few as well... maybe 25-30 isn't out of the question for him... but he's on pace for like 12 goals and I don't think anyone expected that horrendous of a year from him.

RNH is scoring 0.89 pts/60 at 5v5... Troy Stecher is scoring at 0.61 pts/60 at 5v5. Those 2 shouldn't even be close in that stat. RNH has been a ghost more often than not.

Derek Ryan is .56 pts/60 at 5v5 and I don't think he's even an NHL player any longer as defensively he's not really looking as solid any longer either. He shouldn't be playing in the lineup unless Philp is injured... who should be on the roster over Ryan.

It really does seem it's just the McDrai show on offense 80% of the time except when a miracle happens and someone else manages to pot a goal here and there before going into long cold stretches again.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Last season at the 25 game mark... the Oilers had a +4 goal differential and had 10 regulation wins.

This season at the 25 game mark they are -2 in goals differential with 8 regulation wins.

Sample size is growing larger and larger and the trend is that this team is worse than the one from this time last season.

Hopefully Arvidsson/Hyman/Kane can come back refreshed and renewed from their injuries as this team needs a massive injection of energy/desire/grit.