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Oilers are good at hockey again: Back in the plofs

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ACLEVERNAME said:
I'm still not seeing it. They were 'Stanley Cup bound' at season's start and completely floundered. Now they've worked their way back into the conversation (impressive to be honest, not trying to take that away from them) but can we definitively say "these are the real Oilers"? I don't think so.

The extremes of both sides will eventually find its neutral level and that's just not a Stanley Cup winning team IMO.
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The biggest roster move the Oilers have made in years was acquiring Ekholm at the TDL last year. He makes a massive difference in how the team plays but he missed the whole pre-season where they put in their new system and was noticeably hobbled for the first dozen games or so of the season, as was McDavid A healthy Ekholm allows Bouchard to play to his considerable strengths. It also takes a lot of the heat off of Nurse/Ceci allowing them to play fewer minutes and not always against the oppositions very best. This is important because Ceci is really a decent #4 who had been asked to play above his pay grade. Nurse would try to do way too much to compensate and chaos would ensue.

To get a picture of the "real Oilers" you may want to look at their record since the Ekholm deal. That happened on Feb 28 of 2023. Since then they have a record of 46-17-2. The only team in the league with a better winning percentage over that time was Boston .754 to .723. Convert that 65 game sample to an 82 game pace and you have a 119 point pace over that 65 games. In the Salary Cap era only 6 teams have put up more than 119 points in a season.


Now if you take away the 2-9-1 start that leaves a record of 44-8-1 over the remaining 53 games. So its not like they have just played very well for a small sample size. The "real Oilers" when their key players are healthy are a lot closer to the team that has gone 23-3 over their last 26 games than the team that went 2-9-1 to start the season.
 
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Bounces R Way said:
This is also why I laugh in the face of these statistical models and the people that freak out over them who put out shit like 11.3% chance to make the playoffs after 20 games. Like a team is only as good as what their math says. That's just not how sports work.
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You have to understand what those numbers tell you and don't tell you. The predictive nature of the playoff odds models obviously improves as the season passes. But in fact, its is probably true that a team with a 2-9-1 start would miss the playoffs 90% of the time. There will be exceptions and context can give you insight into which teams those exceptions might be.
 
Soundwave said:
That statistic obviously stands out as a massive change. Last year, even as a 109 point team they were 17th in the league for goals against (so bottom half of the league).
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But since the Ekholm trade they are 8th best overall with a GA/gm of 2.75. Excluding the 2-9-1 start in 53 games they have a GA/gm of 2.43. So its not like the lower GA happened over night.
 
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Our team burnt out last year in the playoffs, so coach told team to rest for the first couple months.
 
Every year the Oilers have a terrible month of hockey, it just so happened that this year it was right at the beginning of the year instead of the usual Dec or Jan slump.

Because they didn't have a cushion of 25-30 games, their skid was magnified as they hadn't built up a stock pile of points yet.

Look at LA right now, they had a great start to the year, and are actually in worse slump than the Oilers were to start the year, but nobody is calling them a bottom 5 team.

The Oilers are what everyone thought they were before the season, a legitimate cup contending threat in the west.
 
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Improved defense and some positive regression I guess, although it does help that only 4/15 of those wins came against teams currently in a playoff position (2 are wildcards), and who knows if any of those teams will make it aside from the Rangers.
 
LudwigVonKarlsson said:
Improved defense and some positive regression I guess, although it does help that only 4/15 of those wins came against teams currently in a playoff position (2 are wildcards), and who knows if any of those teams will make it aside from the Rangers.
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they had an 8 game winning streak before that with wins over Vegas, Carolina, Washington (when they were good), NJ and Winnipeg
 
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The first 12 or 13 games were an abberation. It happens sometimes.

The key to the Oilers' recent success? Of course, it's this guy:
vincent-desharnais-2023-41.jpg

With Desharnais in the line-up (since mid-January 2023), the Oilers' record is 55-19-4.

Vinnie for the Hart!
 
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It was slump. A major one , but a slump none the less.

Probably a blessing.

Slump over when - They finally addressed their weaknesses instead of trying to out score them.

Winning streak - Goaltending from Skinner has been the major factor behind that.

Nobody wants these guys in the first round.
 
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LudwigVonKarlsson said:
Fair enough, I was more or less talking about the current run rather than the numerous winning and losing streaks that preceded it.
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There really wasn’t that many. They went 5-12-1 to start then won 8 in a row lost 3 and then went on the current run making them 23-3 in their last 26 games.
 
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