What about his steady decline, and his average at best play at IIHF with a much better team than the Avs, gives you any confidence of him bouncing back? Sure, I'd take Duchene too if he comes very cheap, but what are the chances of that? The Avs will just hold him and take the risk that he does bounce back themselves.
I think people are making more of this "steady decline" than really meets the eye. He had a career high in goals just last season where he had 30 goals and 59 points in 76 games and was better than the prior season. In his career, he's had 1 70 point season, but if you remove that season (treat it as an anomaly), his career average is 26G, 59 points over 82 games and last season, he had 30G, 59 points in 76 games which is a little better than his average.
He had a bad season this season, no doubt, but on a VERY bad team where other good players on his team also had off years. Even his "bad" season is only 2 points worse than E. Kanes season this past year. I'm fine with saying he's not a 70 point player, but IMO, his "demise" is being greatly overstated. Same way Skinner was being written off a few years ago. Eric Staal was washed up a year ago and the way countless other players are written off based on the most recent season at hand.
From what I've seen him play (which granted isn't extensive), he still looks like the Matt Duchene of old in terms of his wheels and play. Who knows for sure, but I do think he'll bounce back, especially if he gets out of Colorado. As I mentioned earlier, I'd like Bleed to weigh in as he's probably seen him more.