Offseason optimism

[Hivemind]

From just a brief look at last years schedule I counted 18 one goal loss games. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say with the improved defense we have now we won't be seeing that number again. The caps are a playoff team right now. With how Holtby and Kuzy do I think that this team can be dangerous. Off that if we can get Green scoring, Nicky scoring, someone on the second line scoring this team is a Stanley Cup team in my mind

If I lose 30 pounds, win the lottery, move to Los Angeles then I'm capable of sleeping with Scarlett Johansson in my mind.

 

[txpd]

If I lose 30 pounds, win the lottery, move to Los Angeles then I'm capable of sleeping with Scarlett Johansson in my mind.

seriously, ive seen holtby as a quality goaltender on a playoff team. ive never seen you dating a Hollywood starlet. so....I find theses two things not remotely the same.

 

[OV Rocks]

If I lose 30 pounds, win the lottery, move to Los Angeles then I'm capable of sleeping with Scarlett Johansson in my mind.

Nicky putting up 25 is alot more realistic than that I think

 

[blokeyhighlander]

From just a brief look at last years schedule I counted 18 one goal loss games. I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say with the improved defense we have now we won't be seeing that number again. The caps are a playoff team right now. With how Holtby and Kuzy do I think that this team can be dangerous. Off that if we can get Green scoring, Nicky scoring, someone on the second line scoring this team is a Stanley Cup team in my mind

So I got bored and checked out this out...

I show we had 24 one-goal games that we lost last season. That puts us T-4th in the league - and we were 10th in the league in points per one-goal game losses.

On the win side, we had 21 one-goal games - putting us at T-10th in the league. We were 15th in points per one-goal game wins.

Overall, we were 4th in the league in one-goal games played, and were in the top half of points earned per game for both wins and losses. Yes, if those losses were wins we would have been in great shape, but I don't think we can count on being in so many three point games this year.

Statistically, we were pretty lucky to come away with as many points as we did. Throwing averages out the window for a second, we came out with 56 points from one-goal games, putting us 8th in the league when we were 17th in total points. We overachieved because of a flawed points system.

I hobbled these stats together so I encourage someone to double-check me.

 

[Hivemind]

Those totals check out with what Japers posted
http://www.japersrink.com/2014/8/25/6064223/the-noon-countdown-close-but-no-cigar

Nicky putting up 25 is alot more realistic than that I think

Your statement was ridiculous homer optimism. If Holtby performs AND if Kuznetsov performs AND if Green produces AND if Backstrom scores 25 AND if someone on the 2nd line steps up...

I don't think there's a team in the league that wouldn't look like a contender if everything single thing goes right on the roster. Even Buffalo would look good if Hodgson steps up AND Grigorenko finally figures it out AND Myers realizes his potential AND Gorges provides instant leadership AND Matt Moulson continues to outproduce Vanek AND Stafford reclaims his 30 goal form AND Chris Stewart is revitalized into the player that once headlined a trade for a former #1 overall pick AND etc etc etc

 

[txpd]

I guess I don't see the rub. Holtby has been a solid young goalie. his poor season last season was well documented as a result of the coach turning his game upside down.

Do you really believe its unlikely that his game returns?

Kuznetsov is not a typical rookie. Do you feel its more likely that he struggle than succeed?

 

[BobRouse]

Backstrom scoring 25 is not some huge stretch.

If he shot his career average last year he would have ended up with 22-23 goals.

Kuznetsov succeeding is not a huge stretch either. There is a reason he is one of the top prospects in the league.

Holtby is top 5 in 5v5 sv pctg over the last 4 years.

Green led NHL Dmen in goals the year before last.


I don't think these things all happening together is unlikely at all. I could easily see good years from all these guys.

 

[Ajax1995]

Look at that 98 roster (especially at D) again and tell me that was an ordinary team.

That team had the 10th best defense, 13th best offense, and finished 8th in points during the regular season out of 26 teams. They were the 3rd best team in their division and 4th in the conference.

They were a better than decent playoff team without a doubt but nobody went into those playoffs saying this team is going to the finals IMO.

 

[BobRouse]

That team had the 10th best defense, 13th best offense, and finished 8th in points during the regular season out of 26 teams. They were the 3rd best team in their division and 4th in the conference.

They were a better than decent playoff team without a doubt but nobody went into those playoffs saying this team is going to the finals IMO.

Bob McKenzie, when he used to do picks, picked against us every single series that year.

In reality both the Bruins and the Sens should have beaten us that year but Kolzig gave us a significant difference.

I thought we outplayed Buffalo but not those other two teams. But Buffalo wasn't that great of a team outside of Hasek and he didn't play as well as Kolzig which that team needed him to.

 

[Hivemind]

It's not about any of those individual events. Even if we think all of those are probable individually (not something that's generally agreed upon on these forums), the likelyhood of ALL of those events happening is small, let alone all of those events without another external negative event (say, an injury to Carlson, a bad year from Ovechkin, or the powerplay struggling).

Let's go ahead and grant each of those events 67% odds. Those are far more favorable odds than many people would give them. The probability that all five of those events occuring together is a mere 13.5%. And that's with a very favorable probability for the individual events, without factoring in any outside negative events, and even if they all occur it doesn't actually mean they'll win the Cup. Obviously they're not all independent probabilistic events, but that's not really the point here. It's simply to show how unlikely the odds of everything going right at the same time are.

 

[BobRouse]

What are the chances the entire team, to a man, plays better under Trotz than GENIUS Oates?

Thats as close to 100% as you can get.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Trotz isn't a miracle and Oates wasn't Tonya Harding to our team of Nancy Kerrigans.

Two of our biggest needs for a successful season are improving the offense and getting a lot out of young forwards-Wilson, Kuznetsov, Burakovsky. Trotz's track record with both are pretty dismal.

 

[BobRouse]

Trotz isn't a miracle and Oates wasn't Tonya Harding to our team of Nancy Kerrigans.

Two of our biggest needs for a successful season are improving the offense and getting a lot out of young forwards-Wilson, Kuznetsov, Burakovsky. Trotz's track record with both are pretty dismal.

Wait....are you saying that Trotz is not >>>>>Oates???

Just want clarification

 

[txpd]

Oates. Its well documented that he turned Holtby's game upside down. or do you disagree with that? He forced out the well respected goalie coach and forced his replacement to instruct Oates program.

If you want to point out negatives about the team, there are plenty to choose from. But..... One thing. Had he allowed Holtby to play Prior's/Kolzig's goalie program the way had to success, the Caps would have had a better record.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Wait....are you saying that Trotz is not >>>>>Oates???

Just want clarification

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying and it's also a valid conclusion based on what I wrote there. Excellent reading comprehension.

For the marginally literate among us:

Trotz>>>>>Oates

 

[BobRouse]

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying and it's also a valid conclusion based on what I wrote there. Excellent reading comprehension.

For the marginally literate among us:

Trotz>>>>>Oates

OK good.

Then it stands to reason we will see significant improvement from the team from that alone.

 

[txpd]

Wait....are you saying that Trotz is not >>>>>Oates???

Just want clarification

sounds to me like he is saying that trotz and oates were only coaches. trotz cant make a crappy team good and oates couldn't make a good team crappy.

I read his overall level of optimism a low.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

OK good.

Then it stands to reason we will see significant improvement from the team from that alone.

A significant improvement off of 28 wins can mean a lot of things.

 

[Langway]

Trotz doesn't need to be an offensive wizard to drastically improve their 5-on-5 play given where they were overall. Improved team defense, more explosiveness through the neutral zone and a higher work ethic overall would make them at least decent again.

Who knows how deep Johansson & Kuznetsov will be able to dig. I'm less concerned about Trotz's handling of young players than the style of young player he's predominantly dealing with and the demands of those two handling playing center.

 

[BobRouse]

A significant improvement off of 28 wins can mean a lot of things.

A significant improvement >>> 3 pts...how much we missed the playoffs by.

Are you going to tell me that half of Ovechkin's goals don't count since they were scored on the PP?