Value of: Offseason Marleau Cap Dump to Detroit

[WingsMJN2965]

I'm spit-balling here and I'm not sure who's gonna hate this idea more between Toronto and Detroit fans.

What would the value be of Detroit taking $6.25M off Toronto's books? Marleau ain't really worth that money anymore, and the Leafs can't afford that in their current cap situation, but Detroit can. Plus it adds a veteran leader to Detroit for the kids to learn from, which Holland loves.

I was initially thinking Detroit upgrades their 2nd to Toronto's 1st and takes on Marleau, but Toronto already dealt their 1st.

So basically, what's the value of Toronto clearing some much needed space, and from both team's perspectives, would you do it?

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[Mr Tadakichi]

Marleau won't waive to go to Detroit. If he does get dealt, he will probably want to go to a cup contender.

It might not even be worth it anyway to trade him. He has only a year left after this one.

 

[Martin Skoula]

If the league is cool with Marleau getting Orpik'd, I think that's the most likely course of action. I can't imagine Grubuaer's value was much more than 2 2nds or a late 1st, so probably a 2nd as the price?

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

How do buyouts work on 35+ contracts? If another team buys him out is Toronto on the hook for some of the cap?

 

[LoseForHughes]

That was basically a favor for Toronto. The Wings are bad enough that second round pick is going to be very high. The Leafs are good enough it's going to be very low. Likely that the difference in picks could be as high as 1 or 2 slots and probably no more than 4-8. It would have to be more than that to take on the salary and relieve Toronto's cap issues.

I see no reason for Detroit to help Toronto navigate the cap issues unless the compensation is higher than your original thoughts.

I think a free second rounder to protect themselves against offer sheets is reasonable. This transaction would essentially eliminate any offseason offer sheet risk for Toronto, that would mean something for sure. It also helps them be players in free agency for some lower level guys.

 

[mouser]

If the league is cool with Marleau getting Orpik'd, I think that's the most likely course of action. I can't imagine Grubuaer's value was much more than 2 2nds or a late 1st, so probably a 2nd as the price?

League isn't gonna be okay with it. On top of which it would cost a team more real $'s to buyout Marleau then to simply have him play for the team.

 

[TheDoldrums]

Marleau's not waiving. The only slight chance would be waiving for San Jose, but even then I don't think he'd go for it.

 

[le_sean]

I love when that contract was signed and everyone said “lol 3 years is idiotic” and Leafs fans said “nah nah it’s fine”. Looks silly now.

 

[member 157595]

I love when that contract was signed and everyone said “lol 3 years is idiotic” and Leafs fans said “nah nah it’s fine”. Looks silly now.

Bullcrap. Many of us hated it then and even more hate it now. It was a bad contract the moment it was signed.

 

[Liferleafer]

I love when that contract was signed and everyone said “lol 3 years is idiotic” and Leafs fans said “nah nah it’s fine”. Looks silly now.

**Some** Many of us were pissed at Lou.

 

[sparxx87]

I love when that contract was signed and everyone said “lol 3 years is idiotic” and Leafs fans said “nah nah it’s fine”. Looks silly now.

It wasn’t an unfair assumption at the time to think it was Lou trying to pull a fast one. Add the *wink* 3rd year to lower the AAV and pay most out in bonus.

It was structured in a way that it’d be easy to move after July 1st. It still might happen, although I probably wouldn’t bet on it.

 

[Martin Skoula]

League isn't gonna be okay with it. On top of which it would cost a team more real $'s to buyout Marleau then to simply have him play for the team.

Why won't they be ok with it if they were ok with it for Orpik? Also after July 1st this year, Marleau is owed 1.25 million in salary, that's chump change to teams that aren't on league welfare.

Also why would they have to pay him more? It's still 2/3rds salary averaged out over 2 years for 35+ contracts is it not? Unless you mean the buyout cost + replacement player.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Marleau is incredibly healthy and chasing a cup. He is not going anywhere next year

 

[StreetHawk]

If the league is cool with Marleau getting Orpik'd, I think that's the most likely course of action. I can't imagine Grubuaer's value was much more than 2 2nds or a late 1st, so probably a 2nd as the price?

But the Orpik situation also means dealing Marleau before July when his SB is paid. So it’s a $3.8 million payout.

Avs paid $3 million for Orpik but got what they expected was their #1 goalie in Grub and paid a 2nd round pick for it.

So, what can you attach that would be worth a team shelling out $3.8 million cash?

 

[mouser]

Why won't they be ok with it if they were ok with it for Orpik? Also after July 1st this year, Marleau is owed 1.25 million in salary, that's chump change to teams that aren't on league welfare.

Also why would they have to pay him more? It's still 2/3rds salary averaged out over 2 years for 35+ contracts is it not? Unless you mean the buyout cost + replacement player.

He can't be bought out by another team after July 1st. Would have to be traded before his signing bonus is paid out.

Then the hypothetical team that buys him out is going to pay $3.83m to buy him out--a savings of $417,000. Factor in that team would then need a roster player to replace Marleau at the league minimum salary of $650,000--and more likely at least an ELC contract at $800,000+ and the team buying out Marleau is going to end up spending $4.6m or so to save no cap space, when instead they could simply pay Marleau $4.25m to play for them.

 

[StreetHawk]

He can't be bought out by another team after July 1st. Would have to be traded before his signing bonus is paid out.

Then the hypothetical team that buys him out is going to pay $3.83m to buy him out--a savings of $417,000. Factor in that team would then need a roster player to replace Marleau at the league minimum salary of $650,000--and more likely at least an ELC contract at $800,000+ and the team buying out Marleau is going to end up spending $4.6m or so to save no cap space, when instead they could simply pay Marleau $4.25m to play for them.

And that also requires Marleau to want to play for that team. Moving his 4 kids again in 2 years to just simply play or does he actually get to go to a team that can win?

 

[Martin Skoula]

But the Orpik situation also means dealing Marleau before July when his SB is paid. So it’s a $3.8 million payout.

Avs paid $3 million for Orpik but got what they expected was their #1 goalie in Grub and paid a 2nd round pick for it.

So, what can you attach that would be worth a team shelling out $3.8 million cash?

Grubauer was probably worth a late 1st or 2 2nds based on similar backup goalie trades. So we can infer that $3mil in cash is worth about a 2nd.

He can't be bought out by another team after July 1st. Would have to be traded before his signing bonus is paid out.

Then the hypothetical team that buys him out is going to pay $3.83m to buy him out--a savings of $417,000. Factor in that team would then need a roster player to replace Marleau at the league minimum salary of $650,000--and more likely at least an ELC contract at $800,000+ and the team buying out Marleau is going to end up spending $4.6m or so to save no cap space, when instead they could simply pay Marleau $4.25m to play for them.

Yeah that's fair, I forgot about the buyout deadline.

 

[Dog]

Marleau is safe but Zaitsev, Gardiner, and possibly Kapanen or Johnsson not. Gardiner is gone after season we just got Muzzin.

 

[LMFAO]

Yeah right Daddy Marleau would waive his NTC to bring his familly to Detroit...

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Yeah right Daddy Marleau would waive his NTC to bring his familly to Detroit...

Strange... Mike Green wanted to keep his family in Detroit so badly that he declined waiving his for Toronto.

 

[SpaceCowboy]

Anyone that has watched the Leafs or followed the team this year knows that they value Marleau. He is loved by the team, he brings in leadership. They won't move him, especially since they're trying to foster a culture to respect vets that come to Toronto for cup runs going forward.

Zaitsev, and Brown will be moved if any cap relief is targeted to be shed. They'll give the young core of Matthews/Marner and Nylander two seasons to try and win it or go deep, and if not by 20-21 they'll move Nylander out for a young player to get relief elsewhere.

They are building a core to compete and plan to fill it with smaller pieces for this season, and next. Marleau will remain.

 

[StreetHawk]

Strange... Mike Green wanted to keep his family in Detroit so badly that he declined waiving his for Toronto.

You can also spin it as a guy who doesn’t want to uproot his family a second time.

Would Marleau want to do that again to his family? If it’s to a team where he can win I think they would do it for their dad. But to just simply play another season, is that worth it?

 

[Meeqs]

If the league is cool with Marleau getting Orpik'd, I think that's the most likely course of action. I can't imagine Grubuaer's value was much more than 2 2nds or a late 1st, so probably a 2nd as the price?

I know the league definitely wasn't happy about it haha. Although they didn't do anything wrong so idk if the league is in a position to stop those types of things.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Marleau is producing at 0.5 pt/game on a 6.25M dollar contract, and will be 40 years old next season and a NMC.

That's near impossible to offload. Marleau would decline a trade to bottom feeders who can afford to absorb his caphit. The teams he would accept a trade to can't take on that massive caphit.

 

[StreetHawk]

Marleau is producing at 0.5 pt/game on a 6.25M dollar contract, and will be 40 years old next season and a NMC.

That's near impossible to offload. Marleau would decline a trade to bottom feeders who can afford to absorb his caphit. The teams he would accept a trade to can't take on that massive caphit.

Have to then try a brassard move to Vegas and have that bottom team retain them flip his rights so that his cap hit is $3.125 million.

Even at that, it’s a hard sell to those competitive teams like win, and, Vegas, SJ, Cal, Bos, TB, Pit, Was.