Player Discussion: official trade deadline 2025 // discussion thread

[cbjthrowaway]

I mentioned Morgan Geekie a few pages back. Not sure how people feel about him, but nobody really said anything so I assume people aren’t fans of his? 26 yo and RFA.

I think he'd be a bit more expensive than maybe some folks realize. underlying stats are really good this year – his athletic card has him at a +6, which is right around where voronkov/KJ/chinakhov are (all are +7 currently).

maybe a more realistic target than people around here realize (right handed, good defensive metrics, drafted by waddell) but maybe not an ideal add since he's not much of a playmaker. could do a lot worse, though.

if we're talking boston, I'd love to scoop up pavel zacha. true matchup forward but can contribute on a scoring line and puts up second line level production, very good on the dot, has term at a reasonable AAV and is reasonably young.

He did later address the Seth Jones situation in his CBJ vs. CHI post.
He quoted Han too. My takeaway from this is that Jones projects to be a short-term improvement on Provorov, but his contract coupled with his defensive defencies means that he probably makes little sense long-term.

I liked this quote:

definitely agree with the idea that the ideal version of severson (one who is mistake-limited) is better than the current version of jones, but I'd argue that both players have fundamentally unfixable characteristics within their game at the moment. with jones, it's his glide/pivots/gaps, and with severson it's the mental side.

that said, severson may only be more valuable in a vacuum. mateychuk was awesome last night and looks to be on a trajectory where he's going to be a difference maker very soon. severson being a better potential fit on paper doesn't matter if evason doesn't trust him to play 20+ minutes, and he sure doesn't seem to.

schumacher drew a parallel between jones and provorov, but the key element of the provorov/severson dichotomy is that ice time is determined by the coach's trust more than it is by impact. seth jones, by that measure, has always been a player who coaches want out there playing huge minutes.

I don't think jones is an ideal target but there are some elements that appeal to me. a two-step where they bring in a retained seth jones and move out one of provorov/severson could be workable:

1. with jones in + severson out
   • werenski-fabbro
     mateychuk-jones
     provorov-gudbranson
   • dedicated shutdown pair, potential to swap provorov/mateychuk if mateychuk struggles, can treat provorov as an in-house rental, etc
2. with jones in + provorov out
   • werenski - fabbro
     mateychuk - jones
     christiansen - severson
     
     
   • no dedicated shutdown pair, but puts severson in a position to tilt the ice in third pair minutes

there are almost certainly more budget-friendly options out there that would be more workable to make a move for, but simply asking the "would jones make this team better" question I think the answer is yes. would require retention, though.

the bigger question is: if they're able to move severson in a separate deal first, what would it take from chicago to get you to take on jones' full deal, without retention? they have an extra first this year and a bunch of picks throughout the next few years.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Severson is 30. We're still talking about him reaching his potential? I think what we mean is he goes on a stretch of really good play.

To be clear, I am a fan of the guy's. In a world where pretty much everyone is overpaid, he's also overpaid.

 

[Napoli]

Severson is 30. We're still talking about him reaching his potential? I think what we mean is he goes on a stretch of really good play.

To be clear, I am a fan of the guy's. In a world where pretty much everyone is overpaid, he's also overpaid.

This issue with Severson is that the good doesnt outweigh the bad. He's playing well at the moment but then goes on a month of being absolutely unplayable. There arent many players making what he makes that have that level of inconsistency. For me, that is a player completely not worth the time and isnt someone you build around as you cannot rely on them unless they're in a good stretch.

The idea that he can somehow be remolded is farfetched, we'll see bad Severson again in the not so distant future.

 

[Napoli]

I think he'd be a bit more expensive than maybe some folks realize. underlying stats are really good this year – his athletic card has him at a +6, which is right around where voronkov/KJ/chinakhov are (all are +7 currently).

maybe a more realistic target than people around here realize (right handed, good defensive metrics, drafted by waddell) but maybe not an ideal add since he's not much of a playmaker. could do a lot worse, though.

if we're talking boston, I'd love to scoop up pavel zacha. true matchup forward but can contribute on a scoring line and puts up second line level production, very good on the dot, has term at a reasonable AAV and is reasonably young.


definitely agree with the idea that the ideal version of severson (one who is mistake-limited) is better than the current version of jones, but I'd argue that both players have fundamentally unfixable characteristics within their game at the moment. with jones, it's his glide/pivots/gaps, and with severson it's the mental side.

that said, severson may only be more valuable in a vacuum. mateychuk was awesome last night and looks to be on a trajectory where he's going to be a difference maker very soon. severson being a better potential fit on paper doesn't matter if evason doesn't trust him to play 20+ minutes, and he sure doesn't seem to.

schumacher drew a parallel between jones and provorov, but the key element of the provorov/severson dichotomy is that ice time is determined by the coach's trust more than it is by impact. seth jones, by that measure, has always been a player who coaches want out there playing huge minutes.

I don't think jones is an ideal target but there are some elements that appeal to me. a two-step where they bring in a retained seth jones and move out one of provorov/severson could be workable:

1. with jones in + severson out
   • werenski-fabbro
     mateychuk-jones
     provorov-gudbranson
   • dedicated shutdown pair, potential to swap provorov/mateychuk if mateychuk struggles, can treat provorov as an in-house rental, etc
2. with jones in + provorov out
   • werenski - fabbro
     mateychuk - jones
     christiansen - severson
     
     
   • no dedicated shutdown pair, but puts severson in a position to tilt the ice in third pair minutes

there are almost certainly more budget-friendly options out there that would be more workable to make a move for, but simply asking the "would jones make this team better" question I think the answer is yes. would require retention, though.

the bigger question is: if they're able to move severson in a separate deal first, what would it take from chicago to get you to take on jones' full deal, without retention? they have an extra first this year and a bunch of picks throughout the next few years.

All interesting thoughts.

If we're taking on Jones, Severson must be leaving the organization, either in the same trade or a different one. I deem Provorov much more reliable (so does Evason FWIW) and holds much more value in the market.

Would you swap out Provorov and Severson for Jones and Pelech/Pulock all things being relatively even?

You could potentially trade Severson for Jones straight up (doubt Damon would waive but who knows) and then trade Provorov to the highest bidder and use proceeds for a shutdown RD in Pulock. Or even parlay that into a dman who would really excel in Evason's system like Dobson.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

This issue with Severson is that the good doesnt outweigh the bad. He's playing well at the moment but then goes on a month of being absolutely unplayable. There arent many players making what he makes that have that level of inconsistency. For me, that is a player completely not worth the time and isnt someone you build around as you cannot rely on them unless they're in a good stretch.

The idea that he can somehow be remolded is farfetched, we'll see bad Severson again in the not so distant future.

I just took issue with the idea that Severson was still in the "could-realize-his-potential" category as a player, and that this was something that could be on the list of plans for the deadline.

 

[VT]

Looking at the entire roster, I don't know if we need anyone right now (the other thing is in preseason):

Voronkov - Monahan - Marchenko
Jenner - Fantilli - Johnson
JvR - Sillinger - Danforth
Aston-Reese - Kuraly - Olivier


Werenski, Fabbro
Mateychuk, Provorov
Christiansen, Severson

Chinakhov, Gudbranson (had/have lingering injuries).

Of course, we can think about goalies, but it's not that easy.

Although I've read that we're supposedly interested in some of the group: Evans, Armia, Nelson, Rakkell, even Cozens.

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

All interesting thoughts.

If we're taking on Jones, Severson must be leaving the organization, either in the same trade or a different one. I deem Provorov much more reliable (so does Evason FWIW) and holds much more value in the market.

Would you swap out Provorov and Severson for Jones and Pelech/Pulock all things being relatively even?

You could potentially trade Severson for Jones straight up (doubt Damon would waive but who knows) and then trade Provorov to the highest bidder and use proceeds for a shutdown RD in Pulock. Or even parlay that into a dman who would really excel in Evason's system like Dobson.

Funnily enough, although those two are often grouped together as similar, in the article in question, Pelech often stands out positively while Pulock does so negatively.

 

[Cowumbus]

I think he'd be a bit more expensive than maybe some folks realize. underlying stats are really good this year – his athletic card has him at a +6, which is right around where voronkov/KJ/chinakhov are (all are +7 currently).

maybe a more realistic target than people around here realize (right handed, good defensive metrics, drafted by waddell) but maybe not an ideal add since he's not much of a playmaker. could do a lot worse, though.

Yeah, I thought our GM said he wanted to get players that would be around for a couple seasons.

 

[Napoli]

Funnily enough, although those two are often grouped together as similar, in the article in question, Pelech often stands out positively while Pulock does so negatively.

Personally Id take either one, both are above average defensively.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Personally I’d take Severson all day over Jones and his ridiculous contract

 

[S1N4TR4]

what would you guys say the percentage of us making a trade before the outdoor game is?

 

[majormajor]

what would you guys say the percentage of us making a trade before the outdoor game is?

15%

 

[MoeBartoli]

Looking at the entire roster, I don't know if we need anyone right now (the other thing is in preseason):

Voronkov - Monahan - Marchenko
Jenner - Fantilli - Johnson
JvR - Sillinger - Danforth
Aston-Reese - Kuraly - Olivier


Werenski, Fabbro
Mateychuk, Provorov
Christiansen, Severson

Chinakhov, Gudbranson (had/have lingering injuries).

Of course, we can think about goalies, but it's not that easy.

Although I've read that we're supposedly interested in some of the group: Evans, Armia, Nelson, Rakkell, even Cozens.

I’m a Danforth’s fan but I want a more offensive forward slotted there.

 

[VT]

I’m a Danforth’s fan but I want a more offensive forward slotted there.

The lineup is just done as a preview of the players, especially the bottom six. Besides, you're forgetting about Chinakov, who I deliberately didn't include. Of course, if Yegor has issues that prevent him from playing the rest of the season, that will be different. But only the front office knows that.

 

[MoeBartoli]

The lineup is just done as a preview of the players, especially the bottom six. Besides, you're forgetting about Chinakov, who I deliberately didn't include. Of course, if Yegor has issues that prevent him from playing the rest of the season, that will be different. But only the front office knows that.

My take on Chinakov was expressed in another post

 

[koteka]

Severson is 30. We're still talking about him reaching his potential? I think what we mean is he goes on a stretch of really good play.

To be clear, I am a fan of the guy's. In a world where pretty much everyone is overpaid, he's also overpaid.

Severson and Ryan “has the back of an 80 year old man” Murray were in the same draft class. And we have 6 more years of Severson’s contract.

 

[majormajor]

Severson and Ryan “has the back of an 80 year old man” Murray were in the same draft class. And we have 6 more years of Severson’s contract.

It's not unheard of for D-men to have their best years in their 30s.

But if you want to compare his longevity to a guy with a degenerative condition then go ahead.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

It's not unheard of for D-men to have their best years in their 30s.

But if you want to compare his longevity to a guy with a degenerative condition then go ahead.

this is where the distinction between developing and fixing is important. most of those guys who were effective into their 30s settled into roles that suited their skillsets and as such were able to maximize that impact.

severson's issue doesn't strike me as particularly fixable. it's the big mistakes. you can live with those to a degree when it's a young, inexperienced player who can grow out of it. that doesn't happen after 750+ NHL games.

same story with jones. his pivots/back skating/gaps have always been a problem across the 800+ games he's played. that stuff isn't getting fixed any time soon.

at least jones' issue doesn't prevent the coach from putting trust in him and feeding him minutes. it really seems like evason is done with severson.

I do think at this stage of their respective careers, severson's on-ice impact, in theory, is marginally higher than jones's on a per-minute basis. but if he's only going to be playing 14 minutes a night versus 20+, it's a moot point.

 

[majormajor]

this is where the distinction between developing and fixing is important. most of those guys who were effective into their 30s settled into roles that suited their skillsets and as such were able to maximize that impact.

severson's issue doesn't strike me as particularly fixable. it's the big mistakes. you can live with those to a degree when it's a young, inexperienced player who can grow out of it. that doesn't happen after 750+ NHL games.

Severson's big mistakes haven't been too prevalent lately, have they? At least I haven't seen them. I think his play has been up and down lately and I'm more concerned with his intensity level in his zone. He looked really strong on his man after the scratches but that doesn't come naturally to him, he wants to be chill. He was creating more offense too and jumping up.

I also have seen older D get less mistake prone, yes even after 750+ games. I would not compare it to an unfixable issue like Jones' back skating.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

Severson's big mistakes haven't been too prevalent lately, have they? At least I haven't seen them. I think his play has been up and down lately and I'm more concerned with his intensity level in his zone.

well, therein lies the problem.

evason asked him to play a safer game, and he's done that. he's cut down on the mistakes, but it came with a cost. he's playing a much smaller role and the results are actually worse.

to quantify those claims:

• per pocke cbj, he has a sub-40% CF share against non-bottom competition since early december
• looking at game logs, he hasn't played >20 minutes in a game since before christmas (averaging 16:06 over that time) – a 2+ month, 20 game sample

i am curious to see what happens when gudbranson comes back. the other third pairing options aren't inspiring whatsoever, but severson is unplayable above that in evason's eyes. maybe they throw him on his off-side and use 78-44 as a nominal shutdown pair. feels less than ideal, though.

I also have seen older D get less mistake prone, yes even after 750+ games. I would not compare it to an unfixable issue like Jones' back skating.

restricting that to just guys who at one time fit the severson mold (two-way d, big minutes, big mistakes) shows a wide range of outcomes.

on the good end you have tyler myers, who simplified his game, earned his coach's trust, and didn't have to resort to only playing a one-way defensive game to do it. OEL may also fit here, but that's more of a "player learns how to adjust to declining tools" thing.

in the middle you have a bunch of guys who reinvented themselves as bottom-pair shutdown guys (jack johnson, erik johnson, dmitry kulikov) out of necessity. on the bad end there's justin faulk, who got worse at the things he did well while remaining bad at the things he did poorly.

is there a version of severson that:

1. still plays his game
2. plays a major role
3. takes care of the puck

I'm not convinced there is, and he's at an age where his tools will begin to dull in the coming years.

rather than hoping for some ideal version of severson that we've never seen in his 11 years in the league, the more realistic target may be a simpler, less risky version of severson that is more of a matchup guy, but it'll take work (and time) to get there.

and even if he does get there – there are cheaper, likely better options that don't have to learn on the job. at least with jones you aren't tasking yourself with trying to change a tiger's stripes.

 

[majormajor]

well, therein lies the problem.

evason asked him to play a safer game, and he's done that. he's cut down on the mistakes, but it came with a cost. he's playing a much smaller role and the results are actually worse.

I think the results have been better. 12GF 7GA since the scratchings. Yeah the underlyings have been worse, but that's maybe a good tradeoff with Severson. He was always the guy who had great underlying numbers and shit results because of the big mistake. Now if he's been able to flip that, we'll take it.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

to quantify those claims:

• per pocke cbj, he has a sub-40% CF share against non-bottom competition since early december

He was scratched in late december. What has it been since then? I've had no issues with him since that time. I don't recall any glaring mistakes by any means.

it's clear that he's not the top pairing guy Jarmo signed him to be out of desperation and overpaid as a 3rd pair guy but if he competently does the job he's being asked to do I have no issues.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I think the results have been better. 12GF 7GA since the scratchings. Yeah the underlyings have been worse, but that's maybe a good tradeoff with Severson. He was always the guy who had great underlying numbers and shit results because of the big mistake. Now if he's been able to flip that, we'll take it.

it's not really something that players can "flip" though. as you said, the process (xGF%) has always looked better than the results (GF%) throughout his career.

up until this year, his career 5v5 on-ice sh% (team, not individual) fluctuated between 5-8%. last year it hit 9% for the first time. this season it's over 11%, and since Christmas it's at 12.4%. his GF% over that time (54%) is way higher than his xGF% (42%) over that span, too.

in other words, it's a mirage. he's getting the best puck luck of his career while struggling to drive possession in relatively easy minutes.

he didn't suddenly become less talented, his usage and the way he played changed, both at evason's behest. seems like he's adjusting to playing a safer style. my point is that he might come out on the other side of that adjustment as a lesser player.

seems like the best thing for all parties is probably for him to go somewhere where he doesn't have to change, and give the jackets an opportunity to pursue a player who better fits their needs without needing to learn on the job.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

He was scratched in late december. What has it been since then? I've had no issues with him since that time. I don't recall any glaring mistakes by any means.

I don't know where pocke CBJ gets the matchup data, or why he chose that particular cut-off.

what I do know is that he hasn't played more than 20 minutes in a game since 12/21, and that his underlying numbers since then have not been good.

it's clear that he's not the top pairing guy Jarmo signed him to be out of desperation and overpaid as a 3rd pair guy but if he competently does the job he's being asked to do I have no issues.

competence and effort aren't the issue here, it's fit. that goes both ways and isn't just about the financial resources they've committed to him.

severson is at his best when he can play his style of game, but that style doesn't fit well with any of the current LHD on the roster. when it does, he can bring a lot of good things, just with some mistakes mixed in.

the team is trying to insulate itself from the bad that comes with that by simultaneously changing his game and role, but that doesn't carry with it a guarantee that performance will improve. and they already have an in-house option (who should be back soon) to play that role in erik gudbranson.

it's a bad fit for the team and the player right now.

back when he was scratched, I know friedman brought up vancouver as a team that was looking at him. something around severson for soucy would make sense imo. severson would look awesome next to marcus pettersson and the jackets would get long-term flexibility + a player who is a better short-term fit on the roster.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I don't know where pocke CBJ gets the matchup data, or why he chose that particular cut-off.

what I do know is that he hasn't played more than 20 minutes in a game since 12/21, and that his underlying numbers since then have not been good.


competence and effort aren't the issue here, it's fit. that goes both ways and isn't just about the financial resources they've committed to him.

severson is at his best when he can play his style of game, but that style doesn't fit well with any of the current LHD on the roster. when it does, he can bring a lot of good things, just with some mistakes mixed in.

the team is trying to insulate itself from the bad that comes with that by simultaneously changing his game and role, but that doesn't carry with it a guarantee that performance will improve. and they already have an in-house option (who should be back soon) to play that role in erik gudbranson.

it's a bad fit for the team and the player right now.

back when he was scratched, I know friedman brought up vancouver as a team that was looking at him. something around severson for soucy would make sense imo. severson would look awesome next to marcus pettersson and the jackets would get long-term flexibility + a player who is a better short-term fit on the roster.

That's fine if that's the route we go but we also need to remember Jarmo gave him a full NTC. He hasn't been pushed out of the lineup and we don't have better options at this juncture that would make him decide he needs to go play somewhere else to save his career. Maybe Vancouver makes sense if he was interested in being closer to home in Saskatchewan (it's still not that close) but he also agreed to come to Columbus to raise his family in addition to the pocket full of cash Jarmo threw at him to avoid UFA.