Official Tank Thread

[Heineman Mineman]

But the PP is lethal. We've got a guy eating minutes. We'll do better than we would've. I'll maintain that we won't be drafting top five but I doubt we make the playoffs either. We'll see though - either one of those scenarios could happen. And my crystal ball for this year has been really off.

Predicting that the playoffs is a scenario that could happen doesn't take a crystal ball: it takes crystal balls to predict it

 

[SwiftyHab]

I'm realistic.

I had us as a .500 team coming into the year. And even those modest expectations were wrecked when we got off to that horrible start.

Yes. We're a better team than we were. But that 2nd line is still hindered by Dach's recovery. Laine doesn't look great 5 on 5 either as he's coming off a leg injury of his own.

But the PP is lethal. We've got a guy eating minutes. We'll do better than we would've. I'll maintain that we won't be drafting top five but I doubt we make the playoffs either. We'll see though - either one of those scenarios could happen. And my crystal ball for this year has been really off.

Does anyone still think we can finish bottom 5? There’s some really bad team out west and some eastern teams are falling apart.

Dream for a top 5 is over. We need to focus on the Calgary Tank in this thread. Hopefully we’re 10th and 11th respectively. This years crop is a crap shoot anyway

 

[morhilane]

I had us as a .500 team coming into the year. And even those modest expectations were wrecked when we got off to that horrible start.

Habs are playing for .500 since November 1st now.

 

[Sorinth]

Tough part of the schedule coming. That will be a real test.

No doubt the team has improved in recent weeks and the recent trade is going to help. But even with that we’re still a lesser team and these upcoming clubs are going to be really challenging.

There are good reasons to expect a collapse, but there are also good reasons to be optimistic as well. Time will of course tell but I wouldn't bet against momentum and confidence, it goes a long way in a parity league.

So far outside of Pittsburgh we've done very well against the other "in the mix" teams. And there's been quite a few games against good teams where a powerplay goal for us would probably have changed the otucome. So I don't know if we are really as bad as some claim. The big wildcard is how long will we actually be able to stay healthy, I'm sure a number of guys aren't 100% but we, knock on wood, currently only have Price on the IR which won't last.

My big problem with the tank talk is that what matters seems to change from one year to the next. Last year the thing that mattered was regulation wins, well Philly is tied for dead last in RW and there's no talk of an imminent collapse down the standings for them or how being 19th in the league by RW, but 25th by P% like we are means that we should expect a rise in the standings. There's always some new reason to expect a collapse that doesn't seem to apply to other teams, like we've only done well recently because of an easy schedule. Ok there's a nugget of truth to that, but it also applies to Ottawa who have also had a very easy schedule and have been very hot in OT.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Habs are playing for .500 since November 1st now.

Yep. We’ve been playing better for a while

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

There are good reasons to expect a collapse, but there are also good reasons to be optimistic as well. Time will of course tell but I wouldn't bet against momentum and confidence, it goes a long way in a parity league.

So far outside of Pittsburgh we've done very well against the other "in the mix" teams. And there's been quite a few games against good teams where a powerplay goal for us would probably have changed the otucome. So I don't know if we are really as bad as some claim. The big wildcard is how long will we actually be able to stay healthy, I'm sure a number of guys aren't 100% but we, knock on wood, currently only have Price on the IR which won't last.

My big problem with the tank talk is that what matters seems to change from one year to the next. Last year the thing that mattered was regulation wins, well Philly is tied for dead last in RW and there's no talk of an imminent collapse down the standings for them or how being 19th in the league by RW, but 25th by P% like we are means that we should expect a rise in the standings. There's always some new reason to expect a collapse that doesn't seem to apply to other teams, like we've only done well recently because of an easy schedule. Ok there's a nugget of truth to that, but it also applies to Ottawa who have also had a very easy schedule and have been very hot in OT.

What I said about this year was that we’d be consistently inconsistent. That’s what .500 clubs are.

I mean, we could be better this year or completely fall off with the tougher schedule. Your guess is as good as mine.

 

[HabsCowboysOwn]

Does anyone still think we can finish bottom 5? There’s some really bad team out west and some eastern teams are falling apart.

Yes, bottom 4 even. The next few weeks will be brutal, big reality check coming for the “rebuild is over because we’re beating ass teams” crowd.

 

[Fuonki]

Still a bottom 3 team in xGF% which has historically been the most accurate predictor of future team success. It's just the same old story it's been the past two seasons: decent goaltending is keeping this team afloat when it should sink. Monty is a top 15 goalie in the league, while some of our competitors in the tank department are fielding AHL-caliber goalies. Just give Primeau a couple more starts and another top 5 pick is all but certain

 

[SwiftyHab]

Still a bottom 3 team in xGF% which has historically been the most accurate predictor of future team success. It's just the same old story it's been the past two seasons: decent goaltending is keeping this team afloat when it should sink. Monty is a top 15 goalie in the league, while some of our competitors in the tank department are fielding AHL-caliber goalies. Just give Primeau a couple more starts and another top 5 pick is all but certain

Can’t look at the season as a whole. This team is going through stages and this latest version of the team is a lot better.

Let’s see what happens over the next 10-12 games. We’ll know our fate them

 

[Kennerback]

Yes, bottom 4 even. The next few weeks will be brutal, big reality check coming for the “rebuild is over because we’re beating ass teams” crowd.

Just so we can put things in perspective. If we win our games in hand, we're tied or ahead of every single Eastern non Wildcard team. The hump to get to bottom 5 is massively bigger than the last two seasons.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Does anyone still think we can finish bottom 5? There’s some really bad team out west and some eastern teams are falling apart.

The next 6 weeks is make or break and we have 14 of the next 18 games against teams we've struggled with (4-9-3) or are of high calibre, but we haven't faced so far. People seem to forget the losses against the caps, wild and jets recently (on top of the 9-2 Pens loss) and it's mostly teams of that calibre we'll face.

 

[ReHabs]

The next 6 weeks is make or break and we have 14 of the next 18 games against teams we've struggled with (4-9-3) or are of high calibre, but we haven't faced so far. People seem to forget the losses against the caps, wild and jets recently (on top of the 9-2 Pens loss) and it's mostly teams of that calibre we'll face.

Will be an exceedingly bipolar six weeks on this Habs board

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

I think the last 3 games of 2024 will tell the tale. If they aren't in at least 2 of them it's over.

 

[Miller Time]

Yes, bottom 4 even. The next few weeks will be brutal, big reality check coming for the “rebuild is over because we’re beating ass teams” crowd.

6-3 with Laine in the roster.
4-5 in the 9 games before that.

What do you predict our record over next 9 games will be?

 

[ZUKI]

Predicting that the playoffs is a scenario that could happen doesn't take a crystal ball: it takes crystal balls to predict it

F#c# y#00 ! it will take all my Christmas free days to understand that affirmation...

 

[The Great Weal]

We have beaten 3 playoff teams:
-Leafs (thanks to a world-class performance by Monty)
-Sens
-Oilers

After tomorrow's game, we have a brutal schedule coming up.

 

[HabsMD97]

On Feb 7th 2024, after 50 games, the habs were a .500 team...they ended up finishing bottom 5. This was their easiest month of the year. Next month + end of Dec will be brutal, I expect them to have around 42-43pts after 50 games this year.

Here is their record vs the league:
VS Top 11 teams: 2-8-0 .200pts%
VS Mid 11 teams: 3-7-2 .333pts%
VS Bot 10 teams: 9-1-1 .863pts%

Yes they've been better since the 1st rangers game, but their metrics since then are still bottom 10 in the league while having a baby soft schedule. They have 19 games remaining against the top 11 teams, 17 games remaining against the middle 11 and only 13 remaining against the bottom 10.

Moreover, they'll most likely run Montembeault to the ground since Primeau sucks and that'll worsen both of their games so the goaltending is bound to get worse unless they trade for another backup.

They ALSO have played more home games so far this year. 55% of their remaining games are away. They have a .571pts% at home and .321pts% away.

I fully expect another bottom 5 finish this year.

 

[morhilane]

The next 6 weeks is make or break and we have 14 of the next 18 games against teams we've struggled with (4-9-3) or are of high calibre, but we haven't faced so far. People seem to forget the losses against the caps, wild and jets recently (on top of the 9-2 Pens loss) and it's mostly teams of that calibre we'll face.

Habs haven't won at the Xcel Center (Wild arena) since 2013. Habs lose there regardless if the Wild are dead last in the league or leading it.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Habs are playing for .500 since November 1st now.

Wins versus Sabres, Jackets, Oilers, Jackets, Isles, Preds, Ducks, Sabres, Wings, Wings. There are right now 21 teams with a record of ,500 or +. Out of those 10 wins, only the Oilers were part of those 21 teams.

10 wins versus teams who aggregate (per each habs win) a win% of ,459. League low is ,382 and league high is ,727. The mid-point is ,554.

Now compare this to the teams we're about to face. Next 18 games, with a per game aggregate win% of ,594.

I didn't mention the teams we've loss against since nov 1st. Wanna pick a guess at the aggregate per game win% of those opponents? ,609, which is just a smidgen over the teams we'll face on average for the next 6 weeks. Among those teams we lossed to since nov 1st, none of them were under ,500.

 

[Kennerback]

Another way you can split the calendar, is the games until February 1st, are basically broken down in two phases. First half is a long road trip, second half it’s the Bell Center, with a bit of back and forth in the middle. Now, Habs have been exceptionally bad on the road and ridiculously good at home for a team out of playoff contention. Let’s see where we are in 2 to 3 weeks.

 

[rahad]

Well the good news for the tank.... the team in the bottom are also winning games. We still have chance for a top 5 pick!

 

[morhilane]

Wins versus Sabres, Jackets, Oilers, Jackets, Isles, Preds, Ducks, Sabres, Wings, Wings. There are right now 21 teams with a record of ,500 or +. Out of those 10 wins, only the Oilers were part of those 21 teams.

10 wins versus teams who aggregate (per each habs win) a win% of ,459. League low is ,382 and league high is ,727. The mid-point is ,554.

Now compare this to the teams we're about to face. Next 18 games, with a per game aggregate win% of ,594.

I didn't mention the teams we've loss against since nov 1st. Wanna pick a guess at the aggregate per game win% of those opponents? ,609, which is just a smidgen over the teams we'll face on average for the next 6 weeks. Among those teams we lossed to since nov 1st, none of them were under ,500.

What is the point of your post exactly and why are you responding to mine with it?

Habs are at .500 since November 1st is just a fact. What their next 18 games are has nothing to do with it.

 

[DAChampion]

What is the point of your post exactly and why are you responding to mine with it?

Habs are at .500 since November 1st is just a fact. What their next 18 games are has nothing to do with it.

@Grate n Colorful Oz has been arguing for years that mid season rankings should be evaluated in terms of strength of schedule. Here he's specifically saying that the Habs have a better record than they're likely to end up because they've been beating up on bad teams.