Official Tank Thread

[LaP]

A rebuild will always be painful not matter what you do. Trying to fill the lineup with vets wont make you win more (see Chicago) and will only delay the time your kids start int he NHL. I still maintain that ideally you want to have one vet by line and duo max and want to bring your kids in waves.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

it's as if rushing the rebuild is bad

Which is why the Dach move was a little Meh but I still liked the gamble

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Your argument is all over the place. What do Roy and Struble have to do with anything?

My arguments aren't all over the place. Roy and Struble areexamples and part of the hopefuls you're banking on to compete if you don't want to wait.

Frankly, 'pedigree' is a weak argument. Here's our current core's pedigree:
• Slafkovsky: 1st overall
• Caufield: 15th OA, now definitely top-10 in a redraft.
• Suzuki: 13th OA, now definitely top-10 in a redraft.
• Dach: 3rd OA, who looked like a beast pre-injury.
• Guhle: 16th OA, becoming a prospective 1st pairing D
• Newhook: 16th OA, a buy-low opportunity.
• Hutson: A later round steal, a prospective star

See, it's not my arguments that are all over the place, but you that don't take the time to read. I didn't say "draft pedigre", i simply said pedigre. There's a difference. You're also being disonest as i had already mentioned those players in the core, except for Dach and Newhook. Guess i'll have to take you by the hand and explain things to you.

First, pedigree. It's not just where they were drafted, but how they did after getting drafted. Both Newhook and Dach are reclamation projects who failed after getting plenty of opportunity and are still failing despite plenty of opportunity. Talk about illusion, you're banking on two players whose pedigree/value are at an all-time low and yes, we have quite a few prospect who project better because they are dominating after their draft, and that includes Demidov, Fowler, Dobes and Hage (I'd add Reinbacher as he did well in his first steps in the A). Hutson's pedigree is superb because he dominated after his draft year and is already living up to expectations.

You bunched-up a ton of players with different outcomes to show their draft position, which is really not what I meant.

I had already talked about Guhle, CC and Suzuki and I wasn't comparing to them. Slaf and Hutson are rebuild draftees, are just 20 years and banking on such young players is foolish. Need to let them develop further. So you're left with the two reclamation projects to join the three i had already named. A core of Suzuki, Caufield, Guhle, Dach and Newhook is inadequate. The rest is also inadequate. Our defense hasn't been rebuilt yet either. It takes a lot more than 5 guys to build a competing team, let alone the fact that two of them are hopefuls. Illusions, as you put it.

So you're hoping for what? That Dach and Newhook will finally live up to their very distant pedigree? Or that some of the other hopefuls like Roy, Struble, Barron or whoever will suddenly rise high above their own pedigree? That's much more an illusion than waiting for players like Slaf, Hutson, Hage, Demidov, Fowler to reach their potential.

Aside from Demidov, which incoming prospects project higher than the above guys? Sure, we can criticize Dach and Newhook now, but before their ups and downs in the NHL, they were highly-touted prospects with at least as much pedigree as the prospects you believe are coming to save the day.

I've already covered this, but I'll add that Demidov, Hage, Dobes and Fowler right now project higher than your two hopefuls. Hage is having as good a freshman season as Caufield did and Fowler is also dominant as a freshman in the NCAA. And Dobes is way better than Primeau was in the A.

Slaf and Hutson are good examples of what the future has in store for us if we're patient enough to wait for them.

Oh, and don't forget that Primeau once had a great pedigree. He was a highly touted All-Star goalie in NCAA and AHL. That's the problem with pedigrees – they don't directly translate into NHL success.

Which leaves you with only Guhle, Caufield and Suzuki from our prerebuild drafts. It's not enough. The Primeau example doesn't tell the story you're hoping. It's an example of why we need patience and more high drafts. Despite his supposed pedigree, I was never high on him and he never dominated the AHL. He wasn't a star goalie in the AHL. I don't know where you got that from. His pedigree was lowered by his time in the A. Dobes is doing better than he ever did. I had named Dobes, but you decided to pretend I only named Fowler.

So much for 'pedigree'.

So much for your strawman interpretation of pedigree. Naming Lane Hutson, a 62nd pick, should've been a clear indication i didn't specify it as "draft" pedigree. Blame yourself for your lame interpretation, devoid of logical follow-up.

To be clear, I'm sure we'll be a better team with Demidov, Hage, Reinbacher, etc. I'm excited about our prospects, but they won't turn us into a winning team unless the current core can win on their own.

Complete non-sequitur. You become a winning team BY ADDING TALENT every year, not by hoping that half your future core can do it by themselves.

You can respond, but I won't read. I'm not interested in arguing over fantasies where a team with a very small core will magically start winning.

 

[teamfirst]

Dobes is doing better than he ever did

But his stats are very similar to Primeau stats in his first 2 season in the A, Cayden stats being even a little better.

Same thing if you compare Fowler stats in the NCAA to Primeau stats in the NCAA.....very similar

 

[Lshap]

My arguments aren't all over the place. Roy and Struble areexamples and part of the hopefuls you're banking on to compete if you don't want to wait.



See, it's not my arguments that are all over the place, but you that don't take the time to read. I didn't say "draft pedigre", i simply said pedigre. There's a difference. You're also being disonest as i had already mentioned those players in the core, except for Dach and Newhook. Guess i'll have to take you by the hand and explain things to you.

First, pedigree. It's not just where they were drafted, but how they did after getting drafted. Both Newhook and Dach are reclamation projects who failed after getting plenty of opportunity and are still failing despite plenty of opportunity. Talk about illusion, you're banking on two players whose pedigree/value are at an all-time low and yes, we have quite a few prospect who project better because they are dominating after their draft, and that includes Demidov, Fowler and Hage (I'd add Reinbacher as he did well in his first steps in the A). Hutson's pedigree is superb because he dominated after his draft year and is already living up to expectations.

You bunched-up a ton of players with different outcomes to show their draft position, which is really not what I meant.

I had already talked about Guhle, CC and Suzuki and I wasn't comparing to them. Slaf and Hutson are rebuild draftees, are just 20 years and banking on such young players is foolish. Need to let them develop further. So you're left with the two reclamation projects to join the three i had already named. A core of Suzuki, Caufield, Guhle, Dach and Newhook is inadequate. The rest is also inadequate. Our defense hasn't been rebuilt yet either. It takes a lot more than 5 guys to build a competing team, let alone the fact that two of them are hopefuls. Illusions, as you put it.

So you're hoping for what? That Dach and Newhook will finally live up to their very distant pedigree? Or that some of the other hopefuls like Roy, Struble, Barron or whoever will suddenly rise high above their own pedigree? That's much more an illusion than waiting for players like Slaf, Hutson, Hage, Demidov, Fowler to reach their potential.



I've already covered this, but I'll add that Demidov, Hage, Dobes and Fowler right now project higher than your two hopefuls. Hage is having as good a freshman season as Caufield did and Fowler is also dominant as a freshman in the NCAA. And Dobes is way better than Primeau was in the A.

Slaf and Hutson are good examples of what the future has in store for us if we're patient enough to wait for them.



Which leaves you with only Guhle, Caufield and Suzuki from our prerebuild drafts. It's not enough. The Primeau example doesn't tell the story you're hoping. It's an example of why we need patience and more high drafts. Despite his supposed pedigree, I was never high on him and he never dominated the AHL. He wasn't a star goalie in the AHL. I don't know where you got that from. His pedigree was lowered by his time in the A. Dobes is doing better than he ever did. I had named Dobes, but you decided to pretend I only named Fowler.



So much for your strawman interpretation of pedigree.


Complete non-sequitur. You become a winning team BY ADDING TALENT every year, not by hoping that half your future core can do it by themselves.

You can respond, but I won't read. I'm not interested in arguing over fantasies where a team with a very small core will magically start winning.

Dude... what the hell are you talking about?

For the last time – I never mentioned Struble, Roy; I never even mentioned our incoming prospects. I was concerned about our current core and the role they play in our future success. Again: The subject was the current core, as in Suzuki, Caufield, Slaf, Guhle, etc., and why it's crucial to see progress from those key guys if we're ever going to have a winning team.

Meanwhile, you're off on tangents about our current players being "b grade or lower" while our prospects are "A and double AA", you brought up pedigrees, brought up Struble and Roy. You seem motivated to start an argument over things I never said nor mentioned.

Either respond to what I've actually said or don't waste my time.

 

[JoelWarlord]

but people act like these guys are the main plot and not the 5 year rebuild timeline the management team gave themselves

Yeah I think this is exactly it, so much of the discussion on here is ultimately about players who just don't matter (which is why I haven't been posting a lot lately, just don't really care to argue about this year's roster when it's a bunch of seat warmers). Our likely most important player is either currently playing in Russia or will be drafted in June. There's been so much anger and anxiety about Kovacevic, Xhekaj, Newhook, Dach, Struble, Barron, Primeau yadda yadda when at the end of the day none of these guys are all that important.

Dach is the most important piece of that list and I do think it's way too premature to just declare him a bust, but even if he never becomes a 2C it's not like it's impossible to find them. Newhook was acquired to be our Palat, not our Kucherov, and while he's disappointed me too I'm not really super worried that he couldn't carry his lines with a slumping Dach and Armia as his linemates. Struble/Xhekaj/Barron are seat warmers being given a chance to prove they can be a #4D, otherwise we'll probably only keep 1 and replace the others with new prospects or vets. Primeau sucks but who cares, Dobes will replace him or we'll sign a veteran backup goalie. These guys are mostly just dice rolls to save money on a generic equivalent UFA who would otherwise play their spot in the lineup.

Demidov and Hage are lighting their leagues on fire, Slafkovsky and Hutson have looked good, Caufield and Suzuki continue to be good, Guhle keeps improving in a bigger role, Heineman has been a bright spot, Mailloux, Beck, and Roy have been good in Laval, yet we're freaking out over our record as if this team is building around David Savard as the 3D and Jake Evans as the 2C. Watching this team game by game and shift by shift over 82 as if this roster is representative of the vision for the rebuild is just a recipe to drive yourself insane IMO.

I'll repeat: People are fooling themselves if they believe Demidov, Hage, and a 2025 pick will turn this team around. First and foremost, this team needs to turn itself around.

they won't turn us into a winning team unless the current core can win on their own.

Idk man this is kinda just horoscope/fortune cookie stuff to me. Did the Devils core learn to win on their own or did they just have a critical mass of young talent reach their primes and add good veterans to replace the garbage ones? The current Habs core can't win on their own. We know this because they keep finishing in the bottom five. They're not good enough, they're surrounded by garbage veterans, and they haven't matured into their primes yet save for Suzuki and maybe Caufield. I get that you're saying Demidov/Hage/2025 1st won't instantly fix every problem but the reality is the current core just doesn't have the horses and the path to being competitive requires new players not on the 24-25 roster to fill the roster holes.

Our current roster/core is missing a game-breaking forward, a 2C (ideally we want a top end 1C to push Suzuki down the lineup, but beggars can't be choosers here), another top-six winger, two top-4D (and ideally at least one at a top pair level), and needs Slafkovsky, Guhle, and Hutson to continue improving as they grow into their primes alongside general non-core upgrades to the bottom six/bottom pair/backup G positions. From the current roster Dach could potentially turn it around and become the 2C and Laine can become the missing "other" top 6 forward, but we'd still be missing the top dog forward and two top-4D.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

But his stats are very similar to Primeau stats in his first 2 season in the A, Cayden stats being even a little better.

Same thing if you compare Fowler stats in the NCAA to Primeau stats in the NCAA.....very similar

Yeah nothing is sure with goaltenders until you put them in the NHL. That's why I find all the Dobes takes funny....as if Primeau never did good in the ahl....

Speaking with certainty on young NHL goaltending is a sure way to be wrong about it lol

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

Yeah nothing is sure with goaltenders until you put them in the NHL. That's why I find all the Dobes takes funny....as if Primeau never did good in the ahl....

Speaking with certainty on young NHL goaltending is a sure way to be wrong about it lol

Dobes is better than Primeau in the AHL. You can't see it in total stats, but if you followed him last year, he started very poorly, as a rookie, but ended his season by having a ,917 save% in his last 38 games (iirc), which is something Primeau never did. Primeau never found any kind of consistency for that long of a period in the AHL. He was there 4 seasons, and everyone of them he stayed below ,910. He never dominated for half a season like Dobes did.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Dobes is better than Primeau in the AHL. You can't see it in total stats, but if you followed him last year, he started very poorly, as a rookie, but ended his season by having a ,917 save% in his last 38 games (iirc), which is something Primeau never did. Primeau never found any kind of consistency for that long of a period in the AHL. He was there 4 seasons, and everyone of them he stayed below ,910. He never dominated for half a season like Dobes did.

Oh I agree , I also prefer Dobes's size and dog in him than Primeau's , I'm just saying the chances of goalie prospects no matter how highly touted they are to come in the NHL and be a lemon is pretty high .

 

[rahad]

Like WTK said, Detroit tried to shorten their rebuild and look at how that went.

As for Ottawa, we are just 5 years removed from them trading away Mark Stone because they had a cheapskate owner. They didn't have the money to hold on to players. They lost a 1st pick to the league in that span too. Melnick was so cheap, he cut down on the vegan meals for whatever player i can't remember. Habs won't have those problems.

Habs aren't Buffalo either. Another team whom in their first rebuild, tried to fill the team with UFAs and failed and had to rebuild again.

You can chose to try to shorten a rebuild and live with the consequences, or you can let it grow organically and in that case, you can't chose when you start competing again. You have to wait for things to coalesce and come to a boiling point.

I agreed with you on that. The Habs should not sign every UFA and try to make the playoff. But, the team will need to improve a little bit for next season. We need a #2 center, RHD and a #2 goalie. We won't be able to fix every single problem in one summer. Next step in the rebuild is to get out of the bottom 5.

 

[SwiftyHab]

Laine is back! ​

Shut this thread down! ​

 

[KevSkillz4]

Laine is back! ​

Shut this thread down! ​

I just wanted to say that but I see your comment hahaha

 

[Jurivan Demidovsky]

Laine is back! ​

Shut this thread down! ​

It would be amazing to start loosing games with more goal scoring, more 4-3 5-4 losses would be exciting and great for the tank.

 

[ReHabs]

it's as if rushing the rebuild is bad

But spending valuable draft capital on rejects and busts is not bad

 

[Lshap]

Idk man this is kinda just horoscope/fortune cookie stuff to me. Did the Devils core learn to win on their own or did they just have a critical mass of young talent reach their primes and add good veterans to replace the garbage ones? The current Habs core can't win on their own. We know this because they keep finishing in the bottom five. They're not good enough, they're surrounded by garbage veterans, and they haven't matured into their primes yet save for Suzuki and maybe Caufield. I get that you're saying Demidov/Hage/2025 1st won't instantly fix every problem but the reality is the current core just doesn't have the horses and the path to being competitive requires new players not on the 24-25 roster to fill the roster holes.

Our current roster/core is missing a game-breaking forward, a 2C (ideally we want a top end 1C to push Suzuki down the lineup, but beggars can't be choosers here), another top-six winger, two top-4D (and ideally at least one at a top pair level), and needs Slafkovsky, Guhle, and Hutson to continue improving as they grow into their primes alongside general non-core upgrades to the bottom six/bottom pair/backup G positions. From the current roster Dach could potentially turn it around and become the 2C and Laine can become the missing "other" top 6 forward, but we'd still be missing the top dog forward and two top-4D.

That's exactly what I'm worried about – whether or not we have the horses to win. I'm excited for some of our prospects to join the team, but at the same time we'd better hope our current key players develop/progress. We need both sets of horses to form a winning team.

NJ's core learned to win slowly, going up and down in the standings for about six years before (maybe) establishing themselves. We saw signs of progress, even if it was followed by a step back. I'm fine with that for the Habs. Continued failure is something we should be concerned about.

 

[KevSkillz4]

I hope the Laine return will not changing about the draft position.

I wanted to make playoffs this year, but at this moment I'm really focused about having a top 5 pick to select between Schaefer, Misa, Martone, Hagens and Desnoyers.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I agreed with you on that. The Habs should not sign every UFA and try to make the playoff. But, the team will need to improve a little bit for next season. We need a #2 center, RHD and a #2 goalie. We won't be able to fix every single problem in one summer. Next step in the rebuild is to get out of the bottom 5.

We need to repace Matheson and Savard surely, but UFAs who want to come here are far and few inbetween, so the likelyhood it will make us better is slim since they will be lateral moves, moving on from Matheson and Savard, for players who might or not be better. It could be an upgrade in lateral movement, but not as much as adding a Demidov will be an upgrade.

 

[SwiftyHab]

I hope the Laine return will not changing about the draft position.

I wanted to make playoffs this year, but at this moment I'm really focused about having a top 5 pick to select between Schaefer, Misa, Martone, Hagens and Desnoyers.

this is where were heading

 

[morhilane]

I hope the Laine return will not changing about the draft position.

I wanted to make playoffs this year, but at this moment I'm really focused about having a top 5 pick to select between Schaefer, Misa, Martone, Hagens and Desnoyers.

That can only happen if Matheson continue having his ECHL episodes every few games.

 

[KevSkillz4]

That can only happen if Matheson continue having his ECHL episodes every few games.

Just fews episode of ECHL performances?!?!, I see that since we acquiring him lol!!

 

[JoelWarlord]

That's exactly what I'm worried about – whether or not we have the horses to win.

I'm confident in saying that the 24-25 roster does not currently have the horses to win (or we wouldn't be in line for another bottom 5 finish) but that's fine, that's why we're rebuilding. I don't know if Hage, Demidov, the 2025 1st, Reinbacher, and the other prospects will be enough but I think there's a lot of positive signs there and we can't judge the veteran additions until they happen (and there will absolutely be some, it's not going to be all prospects).

I'm excited for some of our prospects to join the team, but at the same time we'd better hope our current key players develop/progress. We need both sets of horses to form a winning team.

I think Guhle, Slafkovsky, and Hutson are the main guys who need to keep growing and I feel pretty good about that. Suzuki and Caufield are probably at their peak now (they might have higher scoring seasons when they have better quality around them but they're in their primes now). Dach still has a shot at figuring things out, but if he doesn't it's not critical as we can find a 2C elsewhere and he still brings value at 3C/wing. Development from the rest (Dach, Newhook, Barron, Struble, Xhekaj, etc.) would be nice but it's not critical imo.

NJ's core learned to win slowly, going up and down in the standings for about six years before (maybe) establishing themselves. We saw signs of progress, even if it was followed by a step back. I'm fine with that for the Habs. Continued failure is something we should be concerned about.

Eh not really. They had a bad year and drafted Hischier in 2017 and then squeaked in to the playoffs during the Taylor Hall MVP year. They followed that up with a 29th place finish and drafted Jack Hughes, then finished 26th, 29th, and 28th (with a .384 P%, compared to the 24-25 Habs with a .396!) in the first 3 years with Hughes before the 112P season in 22-23 when Hughes turned into a monster.

They basically just drafted Hischier and sucked for 6 years absent Taylor Hall carrying them to a wildcard spot one year until Hughes became a beast. That's why I bring them up, they got progressively worse by P% during the first three years after drafting Hughes and then suddenly jumped to 112 points with outside additions like Mercer/Hamilton/Siegenthaler and Hughes' development slotting everyone into the right chair. They've since backfilled the missing pieces with Meier, Markstom, Toffoli last year, and Marino/Pesce (alongside Palat who has kinda been a dud) during that growth period and had Bratt develop (Luke Hughes seems to have taken a step this year in his all around game too even if the points aren't eye popping).

Looking back to Hughes' rookie year, I'm sure a lot of Devils fans five years ago were similarly concerned about if a core of Hall, Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Zacha, Gusev, Coleman, Palmieri, Wood, Vatanen, Butcher, Subban, and Severson plus McLeod and Smith in the prospect pool was good enough to contend with. Today only Hughes, Hischier, and Bratt remain from the 2019-20 NJD roster, but I don't think any Devils fans are losing sleep over Butcher, Zacha, and Wood not panning out like they hoped.

 

[morhilane]

Just fews episode of ECHL performances?!?!, I see that since we acquiring him lol!!

How he played against the Bruins Sunday isn't how he's been since acquired. He always has his moments in a game, but every ~3 games this season, he looks like he never played in the NHL.

That's the performances that are sinking the Habs.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

But spending valuable draft capital on rejects and busts is not bad

I swear I see variations of this argument every day on here

It's good to trade 1sts outside of the top-10 because it is unlikely they will ever result in NHL players, but also the Monahan trades were generational because we got 2 late 1sts

 

[teamfirst]

I swear I see variations of this argument every day on here

It's good to trade 1sts outside of the top-10 because it is unlikely they will ever result in NHL players, but also the Monahan trades were generational because we got 2 late 1sts

Same people saying that the Barron trade was good beceause we drafted Hutson with Colorado 2nd will also say the Newhook trade not that bad cuz late first and early second usualy doesn't pan out

 

[JoelWarlord]

I swear I see variations of this argument every day on here

It's good to trade 1sts outside of the top-10 because it is unlikely they will ever result in NHL players, but also the Monahan trades were generational because we got 2 late 1sts

I don't think the Monahan trades are "generational" but why do you think this is somehow contradictory?

Trading mid-late 1sts for established young players is generally good value because the biggest filter in pro sports is making the jump from a drafted prospect to the big leagues and trading for players who have already made that leap gives you much higher chances of turning that asset into a player. You trade a bit of upside for certainty in most cases but the overall EV is much higher on players that are already in the NHL.

Getting a first-round pick in return for a player you were paid a first-round pick to take is a completely different situation where we created two valuable assets out of nothing. Those picks can be used for high upside swings or in trades, these positions are not remotely inconsistent. Part of why the Monahan trade is so valuable is because 1sts are generally overvalued in trades when you can get any player below the elite tier that goes on the trade block for a 1st, a B prospect, and a throw-in.