Official 2025 NHL DRAFT Thread

[bauer]

Need to stop about having the next Toews or Kopitar and let these guys be the first whoever they are

The first Desnoyers!! Well actually he’d be the second because we already drafted his brother.

 

[StoneColdAnimal]

It seems the boring consensus, but I do think it feels accurate, in some order. I think everyone else I've watched is noticeably 1-2 tiers off. I assume there's a couple guys I'd be higher on than consensus if I dig deeper now. Very unsatisfying stuff if the Flyers f*** this up. None of the others strike me as course altering picks. Like I said, each of those top 4 could be nitpicked....

Misa is in his 3rd year of juniors and seems extremely well-rounded offensively, but he might not have that elite trait (skating, if I had to pick) out of a 1st overall. Great tape, but I'm not being smacked in the face like this is The Misa Draft.

Schaefer could be a play pushing 1D, but I don't think he's truly elite on cycle/PP offense (it's certainly weaker than his rush game, although he does pop good 1v1 moves). Maybe a tick short of elite skating too. But then he barely played this year and is almost a 2026. If his profile and tape is reminiscent of a closer-to-ceiling Harley, would that be disappointing? I don't think so, but also because the forwards aren't exactly putting themselves a tier above. I'm very hard on defensemen, especially in the top few picks; it usually doesn't have enough ROI. He's not Dahlin, but he's one of the cleaner easiest scouts in recent years. Love his blend of skill and decision making, and it feels like every shift I've seen.

Martone needs to improve his skating and needs more help getting and skating pucks than the others. So, maybe he needs that elite transporter next to him. He flashes, so I'm not pessimistic, and he could hit a higher ceiling. But his short area/boards game is maybe the highest end of the forwards. Not a lot of guys that size can use their stickhandles and body together like him.

And Hagens doesn't really feel any less skilled than Misa, you're just weighing a disappointing season that could be explainable. I didn't love the couple BC games I caught, but I also didn't love him with Perreault+Leonard, who suck up a lot of oxygen with the puck. That worked better with Will Smith standing still waiting.

100 percent correct. Hagens wasn’t the issue at BC. He had no chance with Leonard. I’m not gonna forget everything about him leading up to this year. It was mostly there if you watched.

 

[Magua]

Drysdale had Niedermayer potential. Yakemchuk has Shea Weber potential. Hayton resembles Bergeron. You could do this all day. Luchanko was Suzuki 10 months ago.

You just can’t compare scouting a Slovenian in Sweden in 2004-2005 to today. Scouting is light years ahead of where it was, even with the misses. Kopitar will probably have 30 pounds on Desnoyers in his prime (assuming Desnoyers gains 20 more pounds). He doesn’t play a power game at all. That why I brought up Carlsson. Desnoyers is more low end finesse: find or skate into soft space, dish out cromulently. You’re not getting a lot of 1v1 work or on-puck jukes and play controlling. He is a flow guy. His PP work absolutely is lacking compared to ES.

Any time a center is responsible defensively (the degree of which is very hard to gauge in the CHL), the same comps surface. If you don’t do the loud stuff, projecting all the x-factor soft stuff is an exercise in hubris. I can’t emphasize enough Desnoyers’ consistent efficiency. I like him. He makes a lot of subtly good choices; I can’t find exceptional choices with a microscope, not in a handful of games. Those guys pop, it isn’t hard. If you want to argue he’ll be one of the smartest players in the NHL and more-than-the-sum his way to stardom, a la Toews, just know virtually every one of those guys disappoints.

 

[AndHeMissedTheNet]

I don't think there's a chance in hell this team takes another NCAA prospect this high again.

 

[Random Forest]

Drysdale had Niedermayer potential. Yakemchuk has Shea Weber potential. Hayton resembles Bergeron. You could do this all day. Luchanko was Suzuki 10 months ago.

Okay, now do Makar, Heiskanen, and Draisaitl.

Imagine being the smartass who said “I like Cale Makar more than Nolan Patrick” in 2017.

We’re talking about players who have distinguished themselves as top 5 players in their class and then forecasting a process that has a high degree of randomness. Yeah, it’s reasonable to say those players absolutely have superstar potential even if it’s far from the most likely outcome for any of them.

 

[sa cyred]

My issue with Desnoyers is when you start to bring in the term intangibles. While I don’t think it’s not important or anything like that we know the Flyers have a sick love for it to the point where it’s their #1 stat in rating a player.

Then you bring up the team’s infatuation with keeping stuff in the family and him having a brother on the phantoms….

I mean it’s just the same old shit every single year. They went “different” and got Michkov two years ago but you know there were old heads at that table that weren’t happy.

They NEED to start to do things differently. The issue is they still think it’s everyone else and not them.

 

[TheKingPin]

Okay, now do Makar, Heiskanen, and Draisaitl.

Imagine being the smartass who said “I like Cale Makar more than Nolan Patrick” in 2017.

We’re talking about players who have distinguished themselves as top 5 players in their class and then forecasting a process that has a high degree of randomness. Yeah, it’s reasonable to say those players absolutely have superstar potential even if it’s far from the most likely outcome for any of them.

God knows how Makar didn’t go 1OA. How the hell did he go 4OA?

 

[Magua]

Okay, now do Makar, Heiskanen, and Draisaitl.

All those guys didn’t have question marks in talent or lack of an elite trait. They had other question marks. That’s the entire argument: I don’t see anything standout about Desnoyers at surface level.

Imagine being the smartass who said “I like Cale Makar more than Nolan Patrick” in 2017.

You think that’s an apt comparison for a player whose skill level and creativity is the issue? It’s closer to the other way around. Taking Desnoyers has more in common with safely taking Patrick (who had a better track record). I’m fairly confident he would be passed by others.

I will listen to anything against consensus. I’m often at odds with it because I trust myself to not care. Having Desnoyers at 4-6 doesn’t feel strongly at odds with consensus? In fact, it’s basically consensus.

We’re talking about players who have distinguished themselves as top 5 players in their class and then forecasting a process that has a high degree of randomness. Yeah, it’s reasonable to say those players absolutely have superstar potential even if it’s far from the most likely outcome for any of them.

It sounds like you’re the one who would call the guy who had Makar over Patrick a “smart ass”. Now, you’re saying every player in the top 5 has superstar potential because Bob McKenzie’s scouts said so? This post feels all over the place. Players regularly go in the top 5 who don’t even approach superstardom, and it’s obvious without hindsight. Hell, some are straight up bad. This isn’t a strong class either, so a cromulent center is ripe to get pushed up. We have seen this so often.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I see yet another conversation that devolves because “potential” is a nebulous term. If it means 100th Percentile outcomes and that’s justification for sweeping conclusions to someone, fair enough but we will never find common ground. That’s a dream, not an evaluation.

God knows how Makar didn’t go 1OA. How the hell did he go 4OA?

There’s no mystery here. He played in the AJHL. That’s one hell of a projection.

At the time, ~80 players had been drafted straight out of that league in any round. They’ve been around since the 1960s and they’re in Canada. This isn’t an underscouted area of the world.

Specifically people were concerned about how to judge his defensive game both because the quality of competition was so low and because he was so much better than everyone else that they spent a tiny amount of sustained time in their own end.

 

[Random Forest]

All those guys didn’t have question marks in talent or lack of an elite trait. They had other question marks. That’s the entire argument.

Well, that’s a very vague and arbitrary distinction to make for your “entire argument”.

You think that’s an apt comparison for a player whose skill level and creativity is the issue? It’s closer to the other way around.

No, it’s in response to your comment about Drysdale and Niedermayer. Makar just as easily could have been Drysdale, and then we’d be laughing at comparing Makar to Niedermayer.

You can parse these individual examples but clearly it’s possible to have superstar potential and not be in the 1OA conversation (I understand it was Jojo who made that particular argument, not you).

It sounds like you’re the one who would call the guy who had Makar over Patrick a smart ass? Now, you’re saying every player in the top 5 has superstar potential because Bob McKenzie’s scouts said so? This post feels all over the place. Players regularly go in the top 5 who don’t even approach superstardom. Hell, some are straight up bad. This isn’t a strong class either.

Theres a difference between having the potential to be a superstar and actually being a superstar. Yeah, I kind of am saying that almost all top 3-5 prospects have some degree of real superstar potential. No, not because of dumbass scouts, but because these are, by definition, highly distinguished young players with elite production, and sheer variation/randomness on that end of the distribution will propel some amount of them to such heights.

 

[FlyerNutter]

Shaking up the establishment a little

I’m entertained

 

[Rebels57]

I'm not even a fan of the Flyers. Just saw you guys were picking high and talking about Desnoyers. I'm a Hawks fan and we've been told the Hawks are looking at Misa, Frondell, and Desnoyers for our pick. Hagens and Martone look unlikely at the moment.

As regards to Mckegg, he gets into a lot of shenanigans outside of prospect work, but his analysis is great and informative. He talks to current NHL scouts and has as close to insider scout informationa s you can get

Surprised they arent interested in Martone at all. Slapping him on Bedards wing could really unlock his next level.

 

[Magua]

Well, that’s a very vague and arbitrary distinction to make for your “entire argument”.


No, it’s in response to your comment about Drysdale and Niedermayer. Makar just as easily could have been Drysdale, and then we’d be laughing at comparing Makar to Niedermayer.

You can parse these individual examples but clearly it’s possible to have superstar potential and not be in the 1OA conversation (I understand it was Jojo who made that particular argument, not you).


Theres a difference between having the potential to be a superstar and actually being a superstar. Yeah, I kind of am saying that almost all top 3-5 prospects have some degree of real superstar potential. No, not because of dumbass scouts, but because these are, by definition, highly distinguished young players with elite production, and sheer variation/randomness on that end of the distribution will propel some amount of them to such heights.

This becomes an exercise in eristics when you immediately post this:

I’m not a big Desnoyers guy

….and then want to get into a long thing about why I’m not a fan of Desnoyers at the pick. Why aren’t you a big Desnoyers guy then? Do you not like his hairstyle? I’m only partly being facetious. Why? I like the player for what he is! But then if you think this, we can’t be on entirely different pages, which would be fine. There’s something that bugs you. I don’t think his profile is “elite production” either, nor his tape.

If the argument is top 5(ish) players have superstar potential, I’d first say that’s eye of the beholder. I really don’t like this class. It falls off in a hurry. The players I’d rank in that range typically I’d agree have 90th percentile (or less) star potential. But as for who actually goes top 5-10? I don’t see why that’s relevant. Teams f*** up nonstop. I don’t have to pretend Reinbacher has 1D potential because he went 5th, 2 spots above Michkov. And it’s always case by case — we don’t need to litigate each good/bad example to find some universal law.

Fwiw, I think Martone has more in common with this discussion than Desnoyers. Martone is the swing-y one between good player and star, and I could explain why.

 

[Flyerfan4life]

They seriously need to hit on this pick. Draft the BPA with the highest upside. Period. Taking Desnoyers over Hagens or Martone could set this team back another 5 years.

#buckle in

 

[Flyerfan4life]

None of the Desnoyers Hagens stuff matters, the Flyers are picking first. Schaefer or Misa? That is going to be our debate. If they pick second, there is no debate. They take the one that is left of the two! Hah!

oh oh oh ive seen this movie before....

 

[Flyerfan4life]

My issue with Desnoyers is when you start to bring in the term intangibles. While I don’t think it’s not important or anything like that we know the Flyers have a sick love for it to the point where it’s their #1 stat in rating a player.

Then you bring up the team’s infatuation with keeping stuff in the family and him having a brother on the phantoms….

I mean it’s just the same old shit every single year. They went “different” and got Michkov two years ago but you know there were old heads at that table that weren’t happy.

They NEED to start to do things differently. The issue is they still think it’s everyone else and not them.

100% if MTL took MM like they should have the Flyers woulda taken some big bodied Dman of no account... cuz "you cant teach size"...

us getting MM was pure luck in the sence MTL screwed up so bad

 

[Gregor Samsa]

The whole Desnoyers thing could possibly end up a moot point as he might go before the Flyers pick. It would be sweet if somehow Misa fell right into the Flyers’ lap

 

[TheKingPin]

Shifting from Desnoyers, any good insight on Hagens? I thought he was the top prospect for this year as of last year? Set the U18 worlds record, surpassing Kucherov. Seems to be a skilled fast good passer with a good shot and lots of moves. I wouldn’t mind a player like him if he was at 4. Why did he drop to at least 3?

 

[Adtar02]

Drysdale had Niedermayer potential. Yakemchuk has Shea Weber potential. Hayton resembles Bergeron. You could do this all day. Luchanko was Suzuki 10 months ago.

You just can’t compare scouting a Slovenian in Sweden in 2004-2005 to today. Scouting is light years ahead of where it was, even with the misses. Kopitar will probably have 30 pounds on Desnoyers in his prime (assuming Desnoyers gains 20 more pounds). He doesn’t play a power game at all. That why I brought up Carlsson. Desnoyers is more low end finesse: find or skate into soft space, dish out cromulently. You’re not getting a lot of 1v1 work or on-puck jukes and play controlling. He is a flow guy. His PP work absolutely is lacking compared to ES.

Any time a center is responsible defensively (the degree of which is very hard to gauge in the CHL), the same comps surface. If you don’t do the loud stuff, projecting all the x-factor soft stuff is an exercise in hubris. I can’t emphasize enough Desnoyers’ consistent efficiency. I like him. He makes a lot of subtly good choices; I can’t find exceptional choices with a microscope, not in a handful of games. Those guys pop, it isn’t hard. If you want to argue he’ll be one of the smartest players in the NHL and more-than-the-sum his way to stardom, a la Toews, just know virtually every one of those guys disappoints.

What do you think of O’Brien. Everything I read or watch he screams high end iq. Thinks the game fast and dishes well.

 

[Random Forest]

This becomes an exercise in eristics when you immediately post this:



….and then want to get into a long thing about why I’m not a fan of Desnoyers at the pick. Why aren’t you a big Desnoyers guy then? Do you not like his hairstyle? I’m only partly being facetious. Why? I like the player for what he is! But then if you think this, we can’t be on entirely different pages, which would be fine. There’s something that bugs you. I don’t think his profile is “elite production” either, nor his tape.

If the argument is top 5(ish) players have superstar potential, I’d first say that’s eye of the beholder. I really don’t like this class. It falls off in a hurry. The players I’d rank in that range typically I’d agree have 90th percentile (or less) star potential. But as for who actually goes top 5-10? I don’t see why that’s relevant. Teams f*** up nonstop. I don’t have to pretend Reinbacher has 1D potential because he went 5th, 2 spots above Michkov. And it’s always case by case — we don’t need to litigate each good/bad example to find some universal law.

Fwiw, I think Martone has more in common with this discussion than Desnoyers. Martone is the swing-y one between good player and star, and I could explain why.

I think we have the same read on Desnoyers. I don’t have any issue with your evaluation. What I’m pushing on is the argument that it’s out of line to say he has superstar potential.

I’m not saying every top five player has elite potential simply by virtue of going top 5. There are obviously top 5 picks who don’t. What I am saying is that there will be another Toews or Kopitar or Makar or Heiskanen or Draisaitl, and maybe you say they had “superstar potential” in their draft year, but I wouldn’t say it was much more obvious than it is with Desnoyers. Becoming “elite” is well outside the fat part of the curve for all non-1OA picks. Doesn’t mean it’s unreasonable to acknowledge what the 90+ percentile outcome is. I’d say Desnoyers’ 90th percentile outcome is an elite two way forward, and that’s enough for me to consider that his “potential”.

To put it another way: what would the next Kopitar or Bergeron or [insert player who was highly regarded but was not obviously who they turned out to be] present as in his draft year? If Desnoyers’ tape (which I agree doesn’t scream “elite production”) DID scream “elite production”, then he would be in the 1OA conversation, which those other guys weren’t.

 

[Appleyard]

I think we have the same read on Desnoyers. I don’t have any issue with your evaluation. What I’m pushing on is the argument that it’s out of line to say he has superstar potential.

I’m not saying every top five player has elite potential simply by virtue of going top 5. There are obviously top 5 picks who don’t. What I am saying is that there will be another Toews or Kopitar or Makar or Heiskanen or Draisaitl, and maybe you say they had “superstar potential” in their draft year, but I wouldn’t say it was much more obvious than it is with Desnoyers. Becoming “elite” is well outside the fat part of the curve for all non-1OA picks. Doesn’t mean it’s unreasonable to acknowledge what the 90+ percentile outcome is. I’d say Desnoyers’ 90th percentile outcome is an elite two way forward, and that’s enough for me to consider that his “potential”.

To put it another way: what would the next Kopitar or Bergeron or [insert player who was highly regarded but was not obviously who they turned out to be] present as in his draft year? If Desnoyers’ tape (which I agree doesn’t scream “elite production”) DID scream “elite production”, then he would be in the 1OA conversation, which those other guys weren’t.

But all of Toews, Heiskanen, Kopitar and Draisaitl had better draft years than Desnoyers tbh relative to level played...

Toews was P/GP in the NCAA (Hagens level)
Heiskanen was a #3 Dman in league that is AHL level.
Kopitar had the best season in J20 for an u18 C ever.
Draisaitl had significantly better P/GP in a better league!

I actually like Desnoyers... at maybe 7-9... but his 90th centile upside is not a Kopitar or Toews... it is Mikko Koivu.

Guys like Hagens, Frondell, Martone... what they have done means that yeh, their 90th gentile upside is maybe closer to such "stars" but guys like Desnoyers and O'Brien are a cut below that based in record and skillset.

A Patrice Bergeron is a once in 20 year occurrence really. He is an enormous outlier. Can Desnoyers be that? In theory... but that is a 99.9% outcome and unreasonable to expect. Couturier is probably a 90th centile outcome...

 

[Random Forest]

But all of Toews, Heiskanen, Kopitar and Draisaitl had better draft years than Desnoyers tbh relative to level played...

Toews was P/GP in the NCAA (Hagens level)
Heiskanen was a #3 Dman in league that is AHL level.
Kopitar had the best season in J20 for an u18 C ever.
Draisaitl had significantly better P/GP in a better league!

I actually like Desnoyers... at maybe 7-9... but his 90th centile upside is not a Kopitar or Toews... it is Mikko Koivu.

Guys like Hagens, Frondell, Martone... what they have done means that yeh, their 90th gentile upside is maybe closer to such "stars" but guys like Desnoyers and O'Brien are a cut below that based in record and skillset.

A Patrice Bergeron is a once in 20 year occurrence really. He is an enormous outlier. Can Desnoyers be that? In theory... but that is a 99.9% outcome and unreasonable to expect. Couturier is probably a 90th centile outcome...

I mean, did Draisaitl and Toews (and Hagens) really have that much better draft years? Desnoyers is at 104 pts in 65 games right now; Draisaitl was 108 in 68. League adjusted, sure, I acknowledge Draisaitl was more impressive. But is Desnoyers really at the point where it’s SO outlandish to call his “potential” Toews-ish? Toews himself was sub-PPG playing with Oshie, Zajac, and Drew Stafford. Pretty good! It was not obvious that Toews had superstar potential. Hence why he went behind EJ and Staal (in an underwhelming year)

We can quibble over what “potential” means… is it the 90th percentile? 95th? Just saying that I don’t find it crazy at all to suggest CD has an upside outcome that would be on the level of elite players who weren’t in the 1OA conversation in their DYs. And I obviously think Hagens and Frondell have similar (and better) upside outcomes … which is why I prefer them.

 

[iceman42]

Shifting from Desnoyers, any good insight on Hagens? I thought he was the top prospect for this year as of last year? Set the U18 worlds record, surpassing Kucherov. Seems to be a skilled fast good passer with a good shot and lots of moves. I wouldn’t mind a player like him if he was at 4. Why did he drop to at least 3?

He has some questions. He's on the smaller side which might have affected his game in college, also he might not be a center, he's become more of a distributor his shot is pretty good he just doesn't use it, his motor/decision making is a bit inconsistent this is more of a nitpick. His hockey IQ is excellent, he thinks the game like MM does more of a tactician, great skater with speed and edge work, great set of hands/stick handling.

He's, at last glance, solidly listed #2-#3 some think he's dropping out of the top 5, I think that might be the per-draft gamesmanship that happens. But you see it in football, prospects come up on the radar earlier they have a greater chance to be over analyzed and flaws magnified because they have been studied for years rather then months.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

Just like McQueen, Desnoyers will probably bite the Flyers one way or another. If they draft him he won’t be impressive. If they don’t draft him he will be a Conn Smythe winner

If they win the draft lottery- Schaefer
If he’s there- Misa
If the above are gone then one of Martone or Hagens
Next tier- Frondell or Desnoyers

 

[Appleyard]

I mean, did Draisaitl and Toews (and Hagens) really have that much better draft years? Desnoyers is at 104 pts in 65 games right now; Draisaitl was 108 in 68. League adjusted, sure, I acknowledge Draisaitl was more impressive. But is Desnoyers really at the point where it’s SO outlandish to call his “potential” Toews-ish? Toews himself was sub-PPG playing with Oshie, Zajac, and Drew Stafford. Pretty good! It was not obvious that Toews had superstar potential. Hence why he went behind EJ and Staal (in an underwhelming year)

We can quibble over what “potential” means… is it the 90th percentile? 95th? Just saying that I don’t find it crazy at all to suggest CD has an upside outcome that would be on the level of elite players who weren’t in the 1OA conversation in their DYs. And I obviously think Hagens and Frondell have similar (and better) upside outcomes … which is why I prefer them.

The Q is probably the 7th best u20 league on earth right now... seriously. While the WHL is in contention for the best!

It was a mistake tbh without hindsight for Backstrom or Kessel not to be #1 in that draft. Then Toews probably 3.

2006 was a pretty good draft. Average at very worse. Just teams were very bad at drafting then! (Which was great for Flyers... Giroux went in 20s with a better season than Desnoyers relative to league and scoring era!)

Johnson and Staal going off their level in draft year should have been back half of top 10 without hindsight. Teams drafted so much for size then it was hilarious.

I do think with Desnoyers though given his trajectory if he becomes Mikko Koivu or Sean Couturier or Roop Hintz... that is a homerun and the realistic upside.

Put it this way... Mikko Koivu and Sean Couturier were clearly better prospects in their draft years than Desnoyers. (And went similar spot to where he should) And probably hit something like 90th centile of outcomes for a player of that level in draft year... and they are still levels below guys like Kopitar, Toews and Bergeron!

I appreciate the semantics around where you draw the "upside" line. But 95% of guys who have become true stars have had better draft years relative to level than Desnoyers.