Prospect Info: [Official]: 2016 Draft Thread
- Thread starter Johnny Hoxville
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Anglesmith
Setting up the play?
Volica
Papa Shango
- May 15, 2012
- 21,726
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Yeah, only the top team (lol) has less than a 50% chance of picking outside the top 3.
5th last is not the worst place in the world to be sitting. Statistically, we have as good as a chance in the top 3 as picking 7th
6/7 are the highest probabilities for our pick come June. Hopefully there will still be some goodies at the table come then.
SaintMorose
Registered User
- Jul 21, 2009
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Yeah, only the top team (lol) has less than a 50% chance of picking outside the top 3.
5th last is not the worst place in the world to be sitting. Statistically, we have as good as a chance in the top 3 as picking 7th
6/7 are the highest probabilities for our pick come June. Hopefully there will still be some goodies at the table come then.
Luckily there's a better chance we win the lottery than pick 7th
SmellOfVictory
Registered User
- Jun 3, 2011
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SaintMorose
Registered User
- Jul 21, 2009
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Should say by winning the lottery I mean 1, 2, or 3 and we have a better chance at that top 3 than we do at 7th
Johnny Hoxville
The Return of a Legend
The way the lotto works this year, it's highly probable that there's movement in and out of the top 3, that's what is exciting about where we still are. Luck will be a part of the equation for all teams.
InfinityIggy
Zagidulin's Dad
I certainly hope so. We didn't mail it in for the last part of the season, and the oilers don't need any more top 5 picks.
Flames Fanatic
Mediocre
So a 26.3% chance of winning a top 3 pick, I can live with those odds.
9.1% to stay, 61% to drop to either 6 or 7. The latter isn't that great, but as long as we can pick up a top 8 pick I'm happy regardless in this draft.
9.1% to stay, 61% to drop to either 6 or 7. The latter isn't that great, but as long as we can pick up a top 8 pick I'm happy regardless in this draft.
DFF
Registered User
- Feb 28, 2002
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Flames Fanatic
Mediocre
Yeah sorry, I meant I'm happy regardless of the outcome of the lottery. I like all top 8 prospects.
Johnny Hoxville
The Return of a Legend
When I talk to God later tonight, I'll ask him again. Last time I asked him, if we are gonna pick Mathews, he did this.
Pirate King Luffy
Ferkland
When I talk to God later tonight, I'll ask him again. Last time I asked him, if we are gonna pick Mathews, he did this.
Did he do that as Jesus or as God? The picture is confusing.
SmellOfVictory
Registered User
- Jun 3, 2011
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Flames don't have a 25%+ chance of winniing the lotto; they have a 9% chance of winning the lottos (combined). Since the lotteries are all separate draws, your odds don't accumulate. The only difference is that there's one less team involved in the lottery after each ball gets taken out.
I know I screwed up in that AHL winning percentage thread, but I swear I'm actually right about the math this time.
I know I screwed up in that AHL winning percentage thread, but I swear I'm actually right about the math this time.
- Oct 12, 2012
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FlamerForLife
Mon Seanahan
- Oct 12, 2012
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I'm not sure they do since they took McDonald in 2014 and signed Schneider who was 2015 eligible. I think getting a goalie from 3 consecutive draft years is overkill unless there is an absolute stud available.
Turning Mangiapanese
Registered User
- Jun 18, 2011
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I think investing a pick on a goalie every couple of years is a sound strategy just to avoid having a huge age gap in the G prospect pool. So yes, I'd like to see the Flames pick a goalie this summer. If there's nobody super intriguing on the earlier rounds just use a 7th rounder on some 6'5" Finnish guy or something.
DFF
Registered User
- Feb 28, 2002
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Agreed they should. Goalies are like lottery. You want to have as many tickets as possible.
Other than Gilles who is injured, none of their other goalies prospects are special ...
- Oct 12, 2012
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Signing Schneider last year at training camp worked the same as drafting him as 2015 was his first eligible draft year and the year before we took McDonald in round 2. Adding a 3rd draft eligible goalie in 3 years could be overkill especially since it will be 3 consecutive years a goalie will be graduating to the professional ranks (Gillies this year, McDonald next year and Schneider the following year) . However if they do, it pretty much has to be a Euro or an NCAA bound goaltender so we have 4 years before they have to be signed; which would stagger their graduation to the professional ranks a bit.
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