Proposal: Offer sheet Nick Robertson

[Maple Leaf]

do it
i could use some pix

 

[hurdemz]

What’s his fall-down-per-60 rate?

He’s not an NHL top 6 winger because he has a shot. Thats literally all that he has and doesn’t play within the structure to get it.

Hes done fine within the structure, the problem with him is staying healthy. Give him a steady role and hope he stays healthy, he'll do just fine.

 

[Jacob582]

Why are the Sabres doing this? Already have too many middle 6 forwards to work with.

Who said anything about the Sabres?

 

[Golden_Jet]

Smaller. I hear smaller alot like that actually matters in his case. The guy is a firecracker and plays well above his size, which isnt that small. Christ, hf posters talk like anyone under 6' isnt making an impact.

This isn't 1995 anymore guys, his size isnt a problem. He has also improved steadly every year, and all signs point to him be a consistent 20+ goal scorer in the nhl

He seems injury prone, and size might be part of the reason.

 

[Brodeur]

All im saying is if broberg got offered that, why wouldn't robertson?

Tough thing with offer sheets is who has the cap space, picks, and motivation. St. Louis expect Torey Krug to be out for most/all of next season, so they suddenly had some incentive to add a defenseman.

Most teams around the league have their top 9s penciled in, so there might not be as much demand for a guy like Robertson. I miss CapFriendly on days like this since I'm not as confident citing similar sites, but teams who have cap space. Decent number of teams with cap space have it reserved for their own RFA.

Pittsburgh (2.7)
Dallas (4.69 mil) -- Thomas Harley RFA
Seattle (5.6 mil) -- Matt Beniers RFA
New Jersey (5.75 mil) -- Dawson Mercer RFA
Columbus (6.49 mil)
Winnipeg (6.6 mil) -- Cole Perfetti RFA
Montreal (7.9 mil)
Carolina (8.275 mil) -- Seth Jarvis RFA
Boston (8.57 mil) -- Jeremy Swayman RFA
Buffalo (9.37 mil)
Utah (9.92 mil)
San Jose (13.3 mil)
Detroit (17.6 mil) -- Moritz Seider + Lucas Raymond RFA
Anaheim (21.7 mil)
Calgary (21.7 mil)

And then of those teams, the following are missing their 2025 3rd round pick or have a condition on them and the CBA requires that picks be "unencumbered": New Jersey (Allen), Calgary (Monahan cap dump), San Jose (Hertl).

If you were to hypothetically offer sheet Robertson at a level requiring a 2025 2nd round pick as compensation, the following teams are missing that pick: Anaheim (Gauthier), Columbus (Provorov), Boston (Orlov), New Jersey (Allen), Winnipeg (Toffoli), Pittsburgh (Petry cap dump), Dallas (Domi), Utah (Sergachev).

Now of those remaining teams, how many are in the market for a guy like Robertson? Offer sheets seems like a last resort, why not just work out a boring trade?

 

[hurdemz]

He seems injury prone, and size might be part of the reason.

Hes listed as 5'10" and 183lbs on elite prospects. I mean, plenty of guys in the nhl are smaller than he is, but he very well may be injury prone.

Tough thing with offer sheets is who has the cap space, picks, and motivation. St. Louis expect Torey Krug to be out for most/all of next season, so they suddenly had some incentive to add a defenseman.

Most teams around the league have their top 9s penciled in, so there might not be as much demand for a guy like Robertson. I miss CapFriendly on days like this since I'm not as confident citing similar sites, but teams who have cap space. Decent number of teams with cap space have it reserved for their own RFA.

Pittsburgh (2.7)
Dallas (4.69 mil) -- Thomas Harley RFA
Seattle (5.6 mil) -- Matt Beniers RFA
New Jersey (5.75 mil) -- Dawson Mercer RFA
Columbus (6.49 mil)
Winnipeg (6.6 mil) -- Cole Perfetti RFA
Montreal (7.9 mil)
Carolina (8.275 mil) -- Seth Jarvis RFA
Boston (8.57 mil) -- Jeremy Swayman RFA
Buffalo (9.37 mil)
Utah (9.92 mil)
San Jose (13.3 mil)
Detroit (17.6 mil) -- Moritz Seider + Lucas Raymond RFA
Anaheim (21.7 mil)
Calgary (21.7 mil)

And then of those teams, the following are missing their 2025 3rd round pick or have a condition on them and the CBA requires that picks be "unencumbered": New Jersey (Allen), Calgary (Monahan cap dump), San Jose (Hertl).

If you were to hypothetically offer sheet Robertson at a level requiring a 2025 2nd round pick as compensation, the following teams are missing that pick: Anaheim (Gauthier), Columbus (Provorov), Boston (Orlov), New Jersey (Allen), Winnipeg (Toffoli), Pittsburgh (Petry cap dump), Dallas (Domi), Utah (Sergachev).

Now of those remaining teams, how many are in the market for a guy like Robertson? Offer sheets seems like a last resort, why not just work out a boring trade?

You're probably right. The perfect situation needs to arise for an offer sheet and it just happened to work for the blues. I expect the leafs to have him signed to a 1 year deal anyways. See what he does under berube.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Hes listed as 5'10" and 183lbs on elite prospects. I mean, plenty of guys in the nhl are smaller than he is, but he very well may be injury prone.

He’s also listed on NHL, hockeydb and hockey-reference as 5’9”, so hard to say.

 

[hurdemz]

He’s also listed on NHL, hockeydb and hockey-reference as 5’9”, so hard to say.

I believe thats out of date, because elite prospects had him listed as 5'9 160lbs during the 22/23 season.

But who knows

 

[TageGod]

Who said anything about the Sabres?

Your profile picture.

 

[TGWL]

Potential doesn't mean shit anymore, hes almost 24 years old and hasnt done squat. I mean, the oilers left his contract on the back burner all summer. What else is there?

He turned 23 less than 2 months ago. You know who turns 23 in 2 months?

I'd argue it's harder for a dman to crack a lineup, so using the position that he spends his time in the AHL is a weak argument when the the age difference is that close, and one has played only 6 more games.

I like Robertson and teams may regret not making a splash to add him to their top 9, but it's easy to see why a Dman who was hyped at the draft and hasn't had a real look in the NHL to become sour on, might get a higher offer.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I believe thats out of date, because elite prospects had him listed as 5'9 160lbs during the 22/23 season.

But who knows

Ya who knows, the 3 sites I listed show 178lbs 5’9””

 

[ManofSteel55]

One spends his time in the ahl, one was on pace for 20 goals in the nhl last year

One just got an offer sheet. The other has not.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Robertson is in that weird place where I personally believe there is a top 6 player there who hasn't been given the chance to show it, while also not being worth much due to a variety of reasons.

A team could get him with a 1.5M offersheet I would guess. And it would probably be looked back on as a terrible move by the Leafs to not match it.

He got no PP time and 8 minutes a night with Holmberg and Jarnkrok and still paced for 20 goals...

 

[BonMorrison]

Dallas should acquire him and also the white, not related Robertson from New York.

 

[HabsAddict]

Offer sheet Robertson?

In what world do GMs offersheet someone the can get for a 3rd?

 

[Orfieus]

I don't think he has that kind of value. Unless the TML can clear space, I imagine they are happy to get a 3rd for him.

He's a guy the Pens board has mentioned a few times. We have the SJS 3rd and now the STL 3rd. I feel either of those for his RFA rights and reasonable discussions regarding a $2-3mil bridge would be fair for all parties.

Not sure if it was mentioned but with a offer sheet you can only use your picks (not picks obtained in trades)

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Is Robertson ready to take off if he were to be given a 2nd line role?

Would Toronto match if a team were to sign him to a 1 or 2 year offer-sheet at $4.5M?
(Second round compensation)

If anybody wants to pay that dude 4.5 million per year you go right ahead and you do that.

I like Robertson, if he stays healthy I think he can be a 25 goal guy, I've said that many times, his 14 gols if 56 games only made that belief stronger.

All that being said he's not worth anywhere near 4.5 million right now.

I'd take the 2nd easily

 

[Funk21]

Is Robertson ready to take off if he were to be given a 2nd line role?

Would Toronto match if a team were to sign him to a 1 or 2 year offer-sheet at $4.5M?
(Second round compensation)

Somebody please do this, the TML likely jumping for joy to get a second out of the situation. Personally I know they would like to have a body in the lineup but there are plenty of unsigned players I’d give a flyer on. Kubalik would be tops on my list.

 

[Jacob582]

If anybody wants to pay that dude 4.5 million per year you go right ahead and you do that.

I like Robertson, if he stays healthy I think he can be a 25 goal guy, I've said that many times, his 14 gols if 56 games only made that belief stronger.

All that being said he's not worth anywhere near 4.5 million right now.

I'd take the 2nd easily

A 25 goal player is worth a 2nd or more.

 

[belair]

One spends his time in the ahl, one was on pace for 20 goals in the nhl last year

Small, defensively poor support wingers are a revolving door in the this league. There are still a handful of them left in FA.

Robertson only holds value to the Leafs as cheap depth because their depth at LW is ass.

 

[Jared Dunn]

Robertson was exactly the type of useless player Keefe should've loved

I kinda disagree with this, Keefe really didn't give him much of a shot. I know Robertson has his warts but dude scored 15 goals in 55 (?) games playing bottom six minutes.

I actually think Keefe basically had his four offensive horses and he expected everyone else to fill in the defensive/grinding gaps. Robertson could have done more, but I never got the sense Keefe was willing to give him much rope

A 25 goal player is worth a 2nd or more.

And a good hypothetical is worth all the money in the world

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

A 25 goal player is worth a 2nd or more.

Agreed but that's what I think he can be provided he stays healthy.

He hasn't done that yet though.

I kinda disagree with this, Keefe really didn't give him much of a shot. I know Robertson has his warts but dude scored 15 goals in 55 (?) games playing bottom six minutes.

I actually think Keefe basically had his four offensive horses and he expected everyone else to fill in the defensive/grinding gaps. Robertson could have done more, but I never got the sense Keefe was willing to give him much rope


And a good hypothetical is worth all the money in the world

14 in 56

 

[Jacob582]

Agreed but that's what I think he can be provided he stays healthy.

Okay. I think it might be worth a 2nd for the chance to get a player who is ready to score 25 goals.

 

[Bond]

Okay. I think it might be worth a 2nd for the chance to get a player who is ready to score 25 goals.

You could get him for way less than a 2nd via an offersheet. I am not sure the Leafs even match a 1.5 mill offer sheet

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

You could get him for way less than a 2nd via an offersheet. I am not sure the Leafs even match a 1.5 mill offer sheet

Nah. They match 1.5 easily