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OT: 'Off topic' thoughts

rumman said:
Not if you don’t sell, been there done that, hold fast the market usually recovers. I only hold mining stocks now and they’ve taken a beating since the pandemic. I started liquidating my portfolio years ago, paid the taxes and converted assets into precious metals. At my age I don’t want volatility……….
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The problem is that a bad stock market has a lot of negative follow-on effects on the rest of the economy.
 
Confucius said:
Precious metals don’t pay dividends. I don’t care that much about share price fluctuations, a solid company has little fluctuation in dividends. Love the cheques coming in every 3 months
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You might think differently once your in your golden years, but to each his own, I’m not just politically Conservative, I’m also fiscally Conservative……..
 
CelticDruid said:
Looks like the EU is going to negotiate a zero tariff deal. (On industrial goods) the rest to be negotiated.
The S&P just gained four trillion on that announcement.

You have to be positive.
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I'm zooming out. Ignore what's happening today. The bigger issue is the direction the economy is heading. Cycles have to happen, and we are due for a down cycle.
 
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We are playing how low can you go right now. I imagine after all the layoffs and carnage there will be excess housing inventory. Developers may be in some trouble. Oh well.
 
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rumman said:
Not if you don’t sell, been there done that, hold fast the market usually recovers. I only hold mining stocks now and they’ve taken a beating since the pandemic. I started liquidating my portfolio years ago, paid the taxes and converted assets into precious metals. At my age I don’t want volatility……….
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Secular bear markets take anywhere from a decade, to two decades to recover from. For the valuations of the current stock market, to match that of past secular bears, we'd have to drop at least 50% from here. If this madness continues in DC, we will fall at least 50% from here, possibly further. It will take a long time to recover.

Of course, there could a pivot anytime, and that could all change... but there is no question that there will be long-term damage from the past two months actions.

There are a number of Private Funds that offer attractive characteristics. There are a couple of Private Mortgage funds that are strictly residential shorter-term mortgages... 10% return, good Loan to Value, no downside in 40 years.... Apartment funds, that are just rental apartment buildings that offer similar returns, and no reported down periods either.
 
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Evilhomer said:
I'm zooming out. Ignore what's happening today. The bigger issue is the direction the economy is heading. Cycles have to happen, and we are due for a down cycle.
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Didn't we just have a down cycle during covid times? Inflation got stupid etc?

I'm 36 and boy am I tired of these "once in a life time" occurrences, just want a normal decade or even 5 year stretch lol.
 
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WTFMAN99 said:
Didn't we just have a down cycle during covid times? Inflation got stupid etc?

I'm 36 and boy am I tired of these "once in a life time" occurrences, just want a normal decade or even 5 year stretch lol.
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On the contrary, the economy was roaring in 2020 and 2021 because of how much stimulus was pumped into it globally. That isn't happening again.
 
Fogelhund said:
Secular bear markets take anywhere from a decade, to two decades to recover from. For the valuations of the current stock market, to match that of past secular bears, we'd have to drop at least 50% from here. If this madness continues in DC, we will fall at least 50% from here, possibly further. It will take a long time to recover.

Of course, there could a pivot anytime, and that could all change... but there is no question that there will be long-term damage from the past two months actions.

There are a number of Private Funds that offer attractive characteristics. There are a couple of Private Mortgage funds that are strictly residential shorter-term mortgages... 10% return, good Loan to Value, no downside in 40 years.... Apartment funds, that are just rental apartment buildings that offer similar returns, and no reported down periods either.
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ya pay's your money, ya take your chance's.................
 
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WTFMAN99 said:
Didn't we just have a down cycle during covid times? Inflation got stupid etc?

I'm 36 and boy am I tired of these "once in a life time" occurrences, just want a normal decade or even 5 year stretch lol.
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Covid was a technical event driven bear market, but not a secular cyclical bear market. This full cycle started in 2009.
 
Evilhomer said:
On the contrary, the economy was roaring in 2020 and 2021 because of how much stimulus was pumped into it globally. That isn't happening again.
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Fogelhund said:
Covid was a technical event driven bear market, but not a secular cyclical bear market. This full cycle started in 2009.
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I guess I was just not in a position to take advantage of the situation having been laid off etc.

Can you imagine how boring it would be right now if they elected Kamala Harris? lol.
 
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CelticDruid said:
Looks like the EU is going to negotiate a zero tariff deal. (On industrial goods) the rest to be negotiated.
The S&P just gained four trillion on that announcement.

You have to be positive.
Click to expand...

The EU offered that weeks ago and got tariffed anyway. The problem is the so-called “reciprocal tariffs” have nothing to do with tariffs at all. They are a war on trade deficits which are not even a problem.
 
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