Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B/3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Long have we heard about the
coming of Vladito.
Baseball’s No. 1 prospect two years ago, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has not yet lived up to the hype—minus the show he put on in the 2019 Home Run Derby before losing in the finals to Pete Alonso. But, I assure you, this is the year he puts it all together.
First off, let’s acknowledge all that Guerrero has done over his first two seasons. He’s hit .269/.336/.442 with 24 home runs in 183 games—impressive numbers for most players before their 22nd birthday. But he’s not supposed to be most players. He was born to be a star.
best shape of his life. Guerrero had
dropped 40 pounds by the end of November, and those who had seen him in person raved about his progress. That he played as well as he did in 2020, despite reporting to summer camp after the COVID-19 shutdown at 280 pounds, which is indicative of his talent. He had a 115 OPS+ and played in all 60 of Toronto’s games.
• Read more about the Blue Jays' 2021 outlook in SI's Fantasy Preview
But because his weight gain hindered his mobility, the Blue Jays moved him from third base to first. He took the demotion to heart and worked to cut his weight without sapping his power, with the intention of earning back his third base job. Regardless of where he plays, though, a more fit Vladdy is going to be a far more productive player.
Beyond his body composition, Guerrero’s peripherals suggest his breakout season is imminent, so long as he makes a few adjustments. Last year he ranked in the 93rd percentile in hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity, according to Statcast. The problem was his 4.6-degree launch angle, well below the MLB average (11.9 degrees). So, even though he was hitting the ball insanely hard, more than half of his balls in play were hit on the ground. Grounders are more likely to be turned into outs, especially when the batter is not fast. If Guerrero lifts the ball more, he’ll be one of the best hitters in baseball.