Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Pt II: It's the off-season in November!... Wait. That's normal for baseball.

[phillipmike]

 

[dredeye]

Jeff Hoffman traded to the reds

 

[phillipmike]

 

[phillipmike]

Jeff Hoffman traded to the reds

Ah yes, Jeff Hoffman the prospect I labelled as untouchable and the next Jays ace.

 

[The Nemesis]

Ha-Seong Kim To Be Posted On November 25


Bring him home?

I'm always super skeptical of NPB/KBO position players coming to (or back to) MLB. The history of success in Japan or Korea as a hitter translating to success in MLB isn't great unless your name is Ichiro. I think a lot of it has to do with the differences in pitching philosophy on either side of the Pacific. the only other guy I can think of that really did anything significant here was Jung-Ho Kang before he torpedoed his career with off-the-field problems. Middle infielders in particular seem to have it rough. Kaz Matsui was the biggest success story and he went from being an elite NPB guys to being an acceptable MLBer. Then you get into the tier of guys like Tad Iguchi, Akinori Iwamura, Munenori Kawasaki, Tsuyoshi Nishioka and it's less encouraging. I'd hate to pay posting money and a pricey FA contract and end up with a borderline replacement level guy

 

[Discoverer]

I'm always super skeptical of NPB/KBO position players coming to (or back to) MLB. The history of success in Japan or Korea as a hitter translating to success in MLB isn't great unless your name is Ichiro. I think a lot of it has to do with the differences in pitching philosophy on either side of the Pacific. the only other guy I can think of that really did anything significant here was Jung-Ho Kang before he torpedoed his career with off-the-field problems. Middle infielders in particular seem to have it rough. Kaz Matsui was the biggest success story and he went from being an elite NPB guys to being an acceptable MLBer. Then you get into the tier of guys like Tad Iguchi, Akinori Iwamura, Munenori Kawasaki, Tsuyoshi Nishioka and it's less encouraging. I'd hate to pay posting money and a pricey FA contract and end up with a borderline replacement level guy

Hideki Matsui and Shohei Ohtani are the only standouts I think you missed, then there are a lot of guys who had one or two solid seasons and not much else. Depending on the price, though, it might be worth it even if he can just have one or two solid seasons.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

I'm always super skeptical of NPB/KBO position players coming to (or back to) MLB. The history of success in Japan or Korea as a hitter translating to success in MLB isn't great unless your name is Ichiro. I think a lot of it has to do with the differences in pitching philosophy on either side of the Pacific. the only other guy I can think of that really did anything significant here was Jung-Ho Kang before he torpedoed his career with off-the-field problems. Middle infielders in particular seem to have it rough. Kaz Matsui was the biggest success story and he went from being an elite NPB guys to being an acceptable MLBer. Then you get into the tier of guys like Tad Iguchi, Akinori Iwamura, Munenori Kawasaki, Tsuyoshi Nishioka and it's less encouraging. I'd hate to pay posting money and a pricey FA contract and end up with a borderline replacement level guy

I think the difference is tools. Unlike a lot of other players that have come over from the KBO he supposedly has plus tools across the board (bat speed, speed, arm, etc).

Just doing some research on him and he looks favorable to Kang who was worth 3WAR on average his first 2 years in the MLB. They played on the same KBO team. Kang left for the MLB when he was 27, and Kim now as a 24 year old.

Age 24 seasons:

Kang: .282/.353/.401 9hr 63rbi 4sb 43bb 62so

Kim: .306/.397/.523 30hr 109 rbi 23sb 75bb 68so

 

[Garlando]

I'm always super skeptical of NPB/KBO position players coming to (or back to) MLB. The history of success in Japan or Korea as a hitter translating to success in MLB isn't great unless your name is Ichiro. I think a lot of it has to do with the differences in pitching philosophy on either side of the Pacific. the only other guy I can think of that really did anything significant here was Jung-Ho Kang before he torpedoed his career with off-the-field problems. Middle infielders in particular seem to have it rough. Kaz Matsui was the biggest success story and he went from being an elite NPB guys to being an acceptable MLBer. Then you get into the tier of guys like Tad Iguchi, Akinori Iwamura, Munenori Kawasaki, Tsuyoshi Nishioka and it's less encouraging. I'd hate to pay posting money and a pricey FA contract and end up with a borderline replacement level guy

Kim is attracting a lot of interest given his youth, positional versatility, and fairly safe skillset given the plate approach and contact skills shown in Korea. He's coming off a year in which he hit .306/.397/.523 with 30 HRs and 23 SBs across 622 PAs while walking more than he struck out which was good for a 141 wRC+. His plate discipline and contact skills are what gives me hope that his game will translate better than many others out of Korea (which has proven fairly difficult). First, his command of the strike zone is impressive, he posted a 12.1% walk rate against a 10.9% strikeout rate, giving him a 1.10 BB/K%. That figure ranked 10th overall in the KBO, and 3rd best among the top 10 hitters by wOBA. His 6.3% swinging-strike rate is well above average (KBO average in 2020 was 10.3%), and he made that contact on all sorts of pitches...posing a 4.7% swinging-strike rate against fastballs, 10.2% against breaking pitches, and a really impressive 3.4% against off-speed pitches. This should mean that he's not going to be exploited by a particular type of pitch in NA. Of note though, the KBO doesn't offer the same sort of velocity that we see in MLB, the average fastball velocity in Korea this past year was 88.6 MPH compared to 93.1 MPH for MLB. As an example, former major league pitcher Dan Straily who averaged 90.9 MPH the last two seasons he was in MLB was one of the best starters in Korea this past season, posting a 2.50 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 194.2 IP.

In terms of power, I don't think Kim is going to be a monster on that end despite the 30 HR season in 2020. Some of the KBO broadcasts display trackman data, and the highest exit velocity I saw recorded was 168.9 km/h which translates to about 105 MPH. A max exit velocity around 105 MPH would rank towards the bottom of MLB. Now I do think his power can translate to his ability to catch the ball out front on his pull side and generate hard-hit flyballs at an above-average rate. His 38.3% flyball rate ranked 4th best in the KBO, and he combined that with the 15th highest hard-hit rate in the league to produce a number of extra-base hits. In fact, 34% (24 doubles, 1 triple, 30 HRs) of his 162 hits in 2020 went for extra bases.

Kim has proven himself to be one of the best hitters in Korea at a young age, while also being an asset defensively as he won golden glove awards in 2018 and 2019 while playing the SS position. There are definitely questions about how exactly his game will translate, but given what he has accomplished in the KBO and his age, Kim represents a unique opportunity to add a young and talented player capable of playing a premium defensive position. He also has some decent ZIPS projections: Ha-seong Kim Has Big MLB Aspirations and Projections

 

[metafour]

I'm always super skeptical of NPB/KBO position players coming to (or back to) MLB. The history of success in Japan or Korea as a hitter translating to success in MLB isn't great unless your name is Ichiro. I think a lot of it has to do with the differences in pitching philosophy on either side of the Pacific. the only other guy I can think of that really did anything significant here was Jung-Ho Kang before he torpedoed his career with off-the-field problems. Middle infielders in particular seem to have it rough. Kaz Matsui was the biggest success story and he went from being an elite NPB guys to being an acceptable MLBer. Then you get into the tier of guys like Tad Iguchi, Akinori Iwamura, Munenori Kawasaki, Tsuyoshi Nishioka and it's less encouraging. I'd hate to pay posting money and a pricey FA contract and end up with a borderline replacement level guy

I think you have to evaluate each player individually. I can spot two things almost immediately with Ha-Seong Kim: firstly, he is younger than most BPB/KBO imports (most of the guys you named came over at ~27-30 years of age), and secondly, his swing/batting profile at least on the surface appears to mirror "MLB hitting" much more so than the traditional profile of the Asian import middle infielder. Most of those other guys came into the league molded and accustomed to the Japanese "slap-ball" style of hitting. The problem with that hitting profile is that if you can't hit for any power, there is virtually zero margin of error if the batting average doesn't translate over. This kid looks much more physically imposing than the typical Asian middle infielder, and his leg-kick/flyball swing path looks like what most MLB scouts are looking for.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Jeff Hoffman traded to the reds

 

[dredeye]

Ah yes, Jeff Hoffman the prospect I labelled as untouchable and the next Jays ace.

I was not happy when we traded him and didn’t want to see Norris go either. Did they ever miss

 

[dredeye]

I'm always super skeptical of NPB/KBO position players coming to (or back to) MLB. The history of success in Japan or Korea as a hitter translating to success in MLB isn't great unless your name is Ichiro. I think a lot of it has to do with the differences in pitching philosophy on either side of the Pacific. the only other guy I can think of that really did anything significant here was Jung-Ho Kang before he torpedoed his career with off-the-field problems. Middle infielders in particular seem to have it rough. Kaz Matsui was the biggest success story and he went from being an elite NPB guys to being an acceptable MLBer. Then you get into the tier of guys like Tad Iguchi, Akinori Iwamura, Munenori Kawasaki, Tsuyoshi Nishioka and it's less encouraging. I'd hate to pay posting money and a pricey FA contract and end up with a borderline replacement level guy

I’m not really crazy about much that comes from Asia in regards to baseball talent. Even the pitching hasn’t translated all that well but it’s been better than positional players for sure

 

[theaub]

I think you have to evaluate each player individually. I can spot two things almost immediately with Ha-Seong Kim: firstly, he is younger than most BPB/KBO imports (most of the guys you named came over at ~27-30 years of age), and secondly, his swing/batting profile at least on the surface appears to mirror "MLB hitting" much more so than the traditional profile of the Asian import middle infielder. Most of those other guys came into the league molded and accustomed to the Japanese "slap-ball" style of hitting. The problem with that hitting profile is that if you can't hit for any power, there is virtually zero margin of error if the batting average doesn't translate over. This kid looks much more physically imposing than the typical Asian middle infielder, and his leg-kick/flyball swing path looks like what most MLB scouts are looking for.

I agree with this, but its a lot easier to turn on inside KBO fastballs than MLB ones.

 

[canucksfan]

 

[Sens]

Top five system
Elite group if core young talent on roster
75 million to spend
Wow

 

[Cor]

Top five system
Elite group if core young talent on roster
75 million to spend
Wow

FiRe ShAtKiNs

 

[canucksfan]

Just finished that podcast and it's very good. Open to all not just subscribers.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

FiRe ShAtKiNs

Zeke hasn't been around in a while! If only we signed Dexter Fowler for a 100 million.

 

[phillipmike]

I was not happy when we traded him and didn’t want to see Norris go either. Did they ever miss

I loved that we got Price and Revere. Was happy getting Hawkins and Lowe too. The prices for Revere and Lowe were fair.

But I was absolutely not happy with the Tulo trade. I didn’t think we needed an upgrade on Reyes. I loved Reyes. Plus trading Hoffman and Castro. Clearly I was wrong. I didn’t know Tulo’s defense was that great.

I didn’t like trading Norris either. I was fine with Boyd.

Looks like I was wrong on most of these.

 

[phillipmike]

Zeke hasn't been around in a while! If only we signed Dexter Fowler for a 100 million.

Im wondering were Zeke is. I think he is still around the Leafs board. Haven’t heard from DJQ too since Spring Training.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Ha-seong Kim Has Big MLB Aspirations and Projections

From a scouting standpoint, there isn’t a great deal of fretting, either. In our ranking of international prospects on The Board, Kim ranks at the top with a future value of 50 and no risk modifier. For reference, our 50 FV prospects rank from 44th (Jasson Dominguez) to 115th (Isaac Paredes), so it wouldn’t be a stretch to call a Kim bound for the US (or Canada!) a top 100 prospect.

Zips projects him as a 3.5+ WAR player through arbitration, which is above average to All-Star. I think he'll be closer to above average than All Star.

ZiPS Projection – Ha-seong Kim

Year	BA	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	OPS+	DR	WAR
2021	.274	.343	.477	503	80	138	29	2	23	82	51	95	17	117	0	3.8
2022	.273	.344	.482	494	80	135	30	2	23	83	51	97	15	118	0	3.8
2023	.271	.344	.492	490	80	133	30	3	24	83	52	100	16	121	0	3.9
2024	.270	.344	.490	478	78	129	29	2	24	82	52	97	15	120	-1	3.7
2025	.270	.343	.490	467	76	126	28	3	23	80	50	91	15	120	-2	3.5

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Man Bear Pig]

I think with a guy like Kim, who likely comes in at $10 million or less a year, is that there's very little risk. If he stinks, you still have him as a decent bench player who can play multiple positions. Not the ideal outcome at that price but that's the way she goes. On the other end, you could end up with a 25 year old signed through his prime with all-star potential. I'd pretty easily sign him.

 

[SDig14]

If these are our non-tender candidates, no need to wait . Those are kinda gross.

 

[SDig14]

I think with a guy like Kim, who likely comes in at $10 million or less a year, is that there's very little risk. If he stinks, you still have him as a decent bench player who can play multiple positions. Not the ideal outcome at that price but that's the way she goes. On the other end, you could end up with a 25 year old signed through his prime with all-star potential. I'd pretty easily sign him.

And his defense at short looks good with range and arm in the video I have watched on him. Likely can play all infield spots.

If the rumor of 5 years $40 million is true, seems low risk. You're paying that AAV to sign Simmons or some back up anyways with all defense, this way you give term for the chance at higher upside.