Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season IV: Off-season progression! (Lockout over: Jays acquire Chapman for 4 prospects!)

[Hoverhand]

I'm not against Chapman, and would be very happy acquiring him. I just think JRam is better, less risky, and worth the extra cost.

The problem is the extra cost is probably Gabriel Moreno.

my theory is that the Jays wanted him all offseason and Cleveland kept demanding their one true untouchable until they finally bowed out and committed to not trading him until the deadline. So the Jays tried to make Villar a rental.

 

[hockeywiz542]

$6.5 for Villar seems nuts, but what do I know.

I really don't understand the Villar appeal.

Thats good news that villar turned that down. I wonder if he was the backup plan if jays nissed on the bigger target

 

[phillipmike]

My conspiracy theory is the Jays wanted to sign Villar to bluff Cleveland and Oakland into thinking that they don’t want to meet their asking price for Ramirez or Chapman. This signing may have indicated they are fine rolling with internal options and Villar at 3B. At the same time their trade off still stands if the Guardians or A’s want to accept to which Villar would move to a utility/bench role.

But Villar caught wind that he was plan B and wasn’t interested in a utility/bench role and turned it down, for now - thinking he will get a better offer.

 

[Morgs]

The problem is the extra cost is probably Gabriel Moreno.

my theory is that the Jays wanted him all offseason and Cleveland kept demanding their one true untouchable until they finally bowed out and committed to not trading him until the deadline. So the Jays tried to make Villar a rental.

I mean, maybe? I doubt it though. Guys like Moreno don't get dealt anymore.

Mookie & Lindor, guys at worst that are similar to JRam didn't take anything near a Moreno-type. Sure they only had a season left, but thats an insane difference. They arguably didnt even take a guy with the upside of Martinez. There's no chance Cleveland will be able to find a prospect on Moreno's level, and the longer they hold onto JRam the more his value diminishes.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

The problem is the extra cost is probably Gabriel Moreno.

my theory is that the Jays wanted him all offseason and Cleveland kept demanding their one true untouchable until they finally bowed out and committed to not trading him until the deadline. So the Jays tried to make Villar a rental.

Prospects like Moreno don't get traded anymore. The deal absolutely could get done without him being added. They didn't get even close to a Moreno level prospect for Lindor and Carrasco. People are getting a little silly.

 

[dredeye]

Good. Hopefully we move on now

 

[phillipmike]

Good. Hopefully we move on now

spoke too soon;

 

[Ale Brew]

Doh!!!

 

[TGB]

I didn't realize I had to specify we need GOOD pitching when I said we should be targeting pitching. So much money on...this. They must know something we don't. Like, really know something. Crystal ball worthy something.

 

[canucksfan]

I didn't realize I had to specify we need GOOD pitching when I said we should be targeting pitching. So much money on...this. They must know something we don't. Like, really know something. Crystal ball worthy something.

From my brief reading, Kikuchi has very good stuff but tipping pitches, pitch selection, and the mental aspect of the game have been a struggle. With Walker as our pitching coach, he seems to excel fixing these issues so this could be a very good signing.

EDIT: It's Tanner Roark where his stuff his crap.

 

[canucksfan]

Is this opening day rotation better than the 2016 rotation?

 

[phillipmike]

Is this opening day rotation better than the 2016 rotation?

In potential it does but I can’t see 2022 out performing 2016. Sanchez was a Cy Young candidate and Happ and Estrada were pitching like #2s and at some points in the season #1s. Stroman was having a rough season but still solid for 4th on your staff.

The key with 2016 was they were incredibly durable. Only 6 starters made starts; Sanchez, Estrada, Happ, Stroman, Dickey and Liriano. I can’t see that happening with this group. Ryu and Kikuchi aren’t as durable.

In 2016 all 5 starters practically pitched at least 170 innings. Last year Ray exceeded 170, Ryu hit 169 and Berrios hit 192 with the Jays and Twins.

 

[canucksfan]

In potential it does but I can’t see 2022 out performing 2016. Sanchez was a Cy Young candidate and Happ and Estrada were pitching like #2s and at some points in the season #1s. Stroman was having a rough season but still solid for 4th on your staff.

The key with 2016 was they were incredibly durable. Only 6 starters made starts; Sanchez, Estrada, Happ, Stroman, Dickey and Liriano. I can’t see that happening with this group. Ryu and Kikuchi aren’t as durable.

In 2016 all 5 starters practically pitched at least 170 innings. Last year Ray exceeded 170, Ryu hit 169 and Berrios hit 192 with the Jays and Twins.

The durability is an excellent point.

 

[Kurtz]

Kikuchi has that stupid double leg raise. Maybe Walker thinks it's impacting his balance/control, and between maybe transforming that into a more standard delivery and maybe getting rid of his worst pitch (he's a 4-pitch pitcher so he can afford to drop his worst), he can get back into his brief all-star form. Not a lot of lefties out there who average 95 on their FB.

But if Walker is wrong on this one...oof. Kikuchi fell apart after the tack ban - couldn't even stay in Seattle's rotation. Plus I don't love bringing over pitchers who spent their careers in a heavy pitcher's parks.

So not a big fan of this move, but have to trust in Walker.

Villar though...dear god not again.

 

[Kurtz]

In potential it does but I can’t see 2022 out performing 2016. Sanchez was a Cy Young candidate and Happ and Estrada were pitching like #2s and at some points in the season #1s. Stroman was having a rough season but still solid for 4th on your staff.

The key with 2016 was they were incredibly durable. Only 6 starters made starts; Sanchez, Estrada, Happ, Stroman, Dickey and Liriano. I can’t see that happening with this group. Ryu and Kikuchi aren’t as durable.

In 2016 all 5 starters practically pitched at least 170 innings. Last year Ray exceeded 170, Ryu hit 169 and Berrios hit 192 with the Jays and Twins.

Kikuchi has been pretty durable - Seattle stopped playing him last year because he was awful down the stretch, not due to injury.

 

[aight]

In potential it does but I can’t see 2022 out performing 2016. Sanchez was a Cy Young candidate and Happ and Estrada were pitching like #2s and at some points in the season #1s. Stroman was having a rough season but still solid for 4th on your staff.

The key with 2016 was they were incredibly durable. Only 6 starters made starts; Sanchez, Estrada, Happ, Stroman, Dickey and Liriano. I can’t see that happening with this group. Ryu and Kikuchi aren’t as durable.

In 2016 all 5 starters practically pitched at least 170 innings. Last year Ray exceeded 170, Ryu hit 169 and Berrios hit 192 with the Jays and Twins.

I was a big fan of Liriano for us.

 

[TGB]

From my brief reading, Kikuchi has very good stuff but tipping pitches, pitch selection, and the mental aspect of the game have been a struggle. With Walker as our pitching coach, he seems to excel fixing these issues so this could be a very good signing.

EDIT: It's Tanner Roark where his stuff his crap.

Okay, but I don't see how taking a flier on a guy is worth $30 million.

 

[dredeye]

From my brief reading, Kikuchi has very good stuff but tipping pitches, pitch selection, and the mental aspect of the game have been a struggle. With Walker as our pitching coach, he seems to excel fixing these issues so this could be a very good signing.

EDIT: It's Tanner Roark where his stuff his crap.

We also have a mental strength department that players seems to love so hopefully they can fix that part of him as well

 

[aingefan]

Villar is an interesting play.
Might be smoke and mirrors, might be a domino.
Curious to see what plays out for Kevin Smith who had a strong year last year.
Liking the pitching depth, too. A backend bullpen arm would be nice, but it might already be in house.

 

[Hoverhand]

I mean, maybe? I doubt it though. Guys like Moreno don't get dealt anymore.

Mookie & Lindor, guys at worst that are similar to JRam didn't take anything near a Moreno-type. Sure they only had a season left, but thats an insane difference. They arguably didnt even take a guy with the upside of Martinez. There's no chance Cleveland will be able to find a prospect on Moreno's level, and the longer they hold onto JRam the more his value diminishes.

These are fine points and I'm sure the hang up could be strictly because of Orelvis. If the package started with Gurriel/Groshans, I'm pretty confident it'd either be done by now or visually picking up steam in rumours. You're right that his value will diminish at the deadline but Cleveland is probably trying to wait out teams that are lowballing them (from a CLE point of view).

I think the FO is desperately trying to upgrade the infield without giving up either of their prized prospects and the Bassitt package makes me think that's a possibility with Oakland. He's a gold glove winner that could probably hit 40 homeruns here and get his slugging% back over .500 here.

 

[Bjindaho]

Looking at the Phillies Chapman talk, the ask is a top 4 prospect from. Their system.

Abel and Stott have virtually no shot of being traded (both top 50 guys) but Fangraphs has Painter rated the same as Hoglund, Jimenez, and Groshans.

 

[Bjindaho]

Looking at the Phillies Chapman talk, the ask is a top 4 prospect from. Their system.

Abel and Stott have virtually no shot of being traded (both top 50 guys) but Fangraphs has Painter rated the same as Hoglund, Jimenez, and Groshans.

Based on this, one of Groshans/Jimenez/Kirk, Robberse and a wildcard like Danner or Zulueta might get it done.

Edit: as I typed this and realized that Kirk was actually higher rated than the other 2 last year (doesn't qualify as a prospect this year), i realize that that also could open the door for a guy like Smith or Lopez to be in the deal.

 

[Hoverhand]

If the Jays go the Chapman route, wouldn't mind spending a bit extra in prospect capital if it means they throw in Lou Trivino as well.

 

[Bjindaho]

If Toronto can get Chapman or Ramirez, then they can pivot to one of Freeman/Schwarber for balance.

I'm not sure RP is a need any more, but if we are interested, there are a couple of good FA options and there are trade options.

 

[Discoverer]

Prospects like Moreno don't get traded anymore. The deal absolutely could get done without him being added. They didn't get even close to a Moreno level prospect for Lindor and Carrasco. People are getting a little silly.

Neither do superstars with two years of insanely cheap control.

I think a deal could definitely get done without Moreno, but I would be shocked if it happened without at least Orelvis involved.