Speculation: Odd ramifications of a rising cap combined with multiple rebuilds occurring at the same time

[Lunatik]

Can't reach the floor, then you lose your 1st round pick. That simple.

I thought it was no revenue sharing, which means far more to owners than a 1st

 

[FiveTacos]

Reaching the cap floor isn't hard. Worse case scenario, you throw a little extra cash at UFA you think you can flip at the deadline.

But these rebuilding teams might not be getting even mid tier guys. Can you flip a garbage player who you had to overpay?

Even if you got a mid tier guy, in all likelihood you had to give him term too, which could make him hard to flip until his last season, or it might require heavy retention.

Also you have to consider that a lot of these rebuilding teams also have to sign a bunch of prospects that they stockpiled picks to get. That puts them closer to the contract limit. It's much better to, say, pay 8m in cap space for Trouba, than pay 5m and 3m for two FAs who you might be stuck with for longer.

 

[StreetHawk]

But these rebuilding teams might not be getting even mid tier guys. Can you flip a garbage player who you had to overpay?

Even if you got a mid tier guy, in all likelihood you had to give him term too, which could make him hard to flip until his last season, or it might require heavy retention.

Also you have to consider that a lot of these rebuilding teams also have to sign a bunch of prospects that they stockpiled picks to get. That puts them closer to the contract limit. It's much better to, say, pay 8m in cap space for Trouba, than pay 5m and 3m for two FAs who you might be stuck with for longer.

When teams are like 30 points out of WC2, most players with options will sign elsewhere. Unless the money or term is much better to endure the losing.

How many of these teams are prepared to have a 60 odd point season in 25/26? Is the GM safe enough to do that or do they need to improve the roster. Davidson and Grier both fired a HC they hired in Quinn and Richardson. Teams can reach the floor without issue. It's really a question of how competitive they need to be.

 

[ole ole]

There are going to be 3 implications:

1. You're going to continue to see contracts like Foligno, Gudas, etc. signed where veteran players, who are certainly on the back half of their careers, are getting money that would have previously been considered ridiculous.

2. If a team needs to shed a $4-6m player on a short term deal, and that player is at all useful, it's not going to cost all that much.

3. You'll likely continue to see LTIR contracts bounce around at reduced prices, especially if the contracts are insured.

We have a winner. The big cost will be money.

 

[ole ole]

I would assume one of the teams is going to allow the Habs to clear the final year of Price's contract next season.

That would be the Quick and easy fix.

I would assume one of the teams is going to allow the Habs to clear the final year of Price's contract next season

 

[Sinbad]

This is really a non issue, just look back to last offseason when Chicago signed Martinez to a 1 year - $4m deal or Brodie for 2 years - $3.75m and Brossoit for 2 years - $3.3m.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Sign overpaid vets for a couple of years.

It isn't hard.

 

[Ciao]

Someone can take Price’s 10.5 cap hit for example.

I venture you’ll see a lot of this type of shit to reach the floor

Even better if the contracts are insured.

 

[SirPaste]

But what cap dumps either don't have NMCs or would waive them to go to a rebuilding team?

Guys that don't plan on playing again due to injury so they are just collecting their paychecks

 

[viper0220]

Low-key though if you’re Bedard do you just sign 1 year extensions for the max cap hit until the Blackhawks actually need the cap space to be competitive

No, Ice Hockey is a physical sport, you can get injured. For a young very talented player like Bedard, you get the guaranteed money.

 

[SEALBound]

I would be okay with a team going under the cap floor purely to avoid handing out bloated contracts to unworthy players. Maybe in the new CBA, something like - you can go under for a period a 3 cumulative years in a 6 year span but no more than 5 in 10 or something like that.

It's tough when you have a good crop of young guys that need playing time to develop but you can because you need to pay Corey Perry $5mil to get over the cap floor.

 

[PelagicJoe]

Someone can take Price’s 10.5 cap hit for example.

I venture you’ll see a lot of this type of shit to reach the floor

I am surprised that the Arizona Coyotes never trademarked this technique.

 

[TheFinalWord]

I can't imagine any team having an issue hitting the cap floor. There are a ton of bad contracts that teams would be happy to move away with payment, so that those close to the floor could take said players to get a sweetener. Arizona was the only team that was such a budget team, that they actively tried to hit the cap floor without paying the actual money.

What you may see is teams doing more offer sheets, based on how it worked out for St. Louis, as well as the fact that they may have more money to play with to try and target some young players with potential.

The closest team to the cap floor (Columbus), is only close because of the tragedy from the summer.

Teams will struggle to get premium free agents if they're not strong, unless they're willing to overpay, but this has always been the way. Edmonton couldn't sign anyone until they started winning. Buffalo is one of those teams now that will struggle to attract players, but if/when they start winning again, they'll be fine.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

I looked at players I could see moving who make more than $6m and their contract situations as of 25-26. I excluded some players like Nylander, Huberdeau, McAvoy, Fox, and Meier, who seem extremely unlikely to me to move, and several players from teams like Anaheim, Calgary, Columbus and San Jose because they will all need to strive towards the cap floor.

Player	Contract	Clause
A Panarin	11.64m x 1	NMC
E Pettersson	11.6m x 7	NMC*** as of 25-26
C Price	10.5m x 2	NMC
E Karlsson	10m x 2	NMC
T Seguin	9.85m x 2	NMC
S Jones	9.5m x 5	NMC
D Nurse	9.25m x 5	NMC
D Hamilton	9m x 3	10-team trade list
M Zibanejad	8.5m x 5	NMC
PL Dubois	8.5m x 6	NMC
B Horvat	8.5m x 6	NTC
O Power	8.35m x 6
T Hertl	8.14m x 5	3-team trade list
JT Miller	8m x 5	NMC
J Norris	7.95m x 5
K Fiala	7.88m x 4	NMC
S Weber	7.86m x 1
E Lindholm	7.75m x 6	NMC
S Couturier	7.75m x 5	NMC
D Cozens	7.1m x 5
B Skjei	7m x 6	NMC, 15-team NTC
G Landeskog	7m x 4	NMC
A Lee	7m x 1	15-team NTC
N Kadri	7m x 5	NMC
B Schenn	6.5m x 3	15-team NTC
C Kreider	6.5m x 2	15-team NTC
T Krug	6.5m x 2	15-team NTC
B Gallagher	6.5m x 2	6-team NTC
J Faulk	6.5m x 2	15-team NTC
R Ellis	6.25m x 2
O Palat	6m x 2	10-team trade list

My takeaways:
- Almost everyone making over $7m has nearly-full trade protections; exceptions are players ineligible for trade protections due to RFA status (Pettersson, Powers, Norris, Cozens) or de facto retired players (Price and Weber).
- There are a handful of guys with moderate protection making between $6-7m
- It will still be extremely difficult to move high priced players who do not want to move, but dead cap (see: Price, Weber, Ellis, possibly Landeskog) will be easy to move; previously "hard to move" short-term, medium priced deals like Schenn, Kreider, Krug, Gallagher, Faulk and Palat will be easier to move; and RFAs with varying degrees of potential in Pettersson, Powers, Norris, Cozens may be more appealing to teams far from the floor