Confirmed with Link: [NYR] Jimmy Vesey re-signs (2 years, $2.275M AAV)

[nyr2k2]

That's an interesting way of looking at things. Good work on putting it together.

Part of my argument regarding RFAs and the contracts they sign is that I have strong doubts about whether things like relCF% really come into the picture. I mean, we know that basically half or more of the guys running clubs at this very moment apparently place little emphasis on possession (or at least, the possession stats that people generally use, which are pretty simplistic) since they sign guys that kill possession and employ coaches that place no emphasis on possession. You know, they're old school "Hockey Guys," and even though they grudgingly employ analytics guys, they seem to ignore that shit a lot of the time. I think they tend to focus on the the "traditional" numbers because that's what they've always known. Hence my comment that if you're a 30-point guy, you'll get paid like a 30-point guy--even if you have some deficiencies that the other 30-point guys don't have.

Of course it will evolve, eventually. Though when it does, I think it will involve measures we don't have yet, or don't know we have yet.

 

[Harbour Dog]

If you just take total points into account, then sure Vesey is similar to these others. Also I agree, you have to look at CH% not just raw AAV.

Normalizing these numbers to CH% and Total Points/60 to calculate P60/CH% you get this:

[TABLE="class: brtb_item_table"][TBODY][TR][TD]Lindberg[/TD][TD].749[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Ferland[/TD][TD].734[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Dzingel[/TD][TD].688[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Vesey[/TD][TD].517[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Martinook[/TD][TD].517[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Rieder[/TD][TD].511[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Donskoi[/TD][TD].465[/TD][/TR]
[TR][TD]Sheahan[/TD][TD].419[/TD][/TR][/TBODY][/TABLE]
So if you value point scoring rates and normalize to percentage of cap hit, Vesey is about around the norm on this list.



Disclaimer: I am not a data analytics person at all and have basically no education in statistics, so I am sure I am doing something wrong from here on. However, here is my attempt to quantify a player normalized to cap hit%. If I make a mistake, I would appreciate if someone would help correct this.


If you want to look at other factors such as possession to get a more complete picture of the players then the list looks quite different. Taking relative CF% and normalizing by CH%:

Rieder	1.433
Donskoi	1.215
Martinook	.617
Dzingel	.454
Lindberg	-.220
Sheahan	-.244
Vesey	-.385
Ferland	-.502

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In an attempt to combine both of these to incorporate scoring and production normalized to cap hit, I added these two together which is probably oversimplifying this whole thing:

Rieder	1.944
Donskoi	1.681
Dzingel	1.142
Martinook	1.133
Lindberg	.529
Ferland	.232
Sheahan	.175
Vesey	.133

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I am guessing that relCF% was the wrong number to use for this, but I picked something that tried to eliminate the teammate difference. On the off chance that I did not make a mistake, Vesey looks like the worst on this list of comparables.

If anyone knows a better way to quantitatively evaluate contracts or has any ideas on how to improve this, it is actually kind of fun and I would like to look more into it.

I also have little training in statistics, so this is more a question than an attempt to point out error.

How did you adjust when doing the CF%/CH% so that there wasn't an advantage for players with a negative Corsi to have a larger cap hit?

 

[Doctyl]

I also have little training in statistics, so this is more a question than an attempt to point out error.

How did you adjust when doing the CF%/CH% so that there wasn't an advantage for players with a negative Corsi to have a larger cap hit?

I did not. I knew there was something about the negative relCF%. Using just CF% would probably correct this right? That would give players on better teams an advantage though.

xGF would also probably be a better metric than CF now that I am thinking more about this.

 

[Tawnos]

That's an interesting way of looking at things. Good work on putting it together.

Part of my argument regarding RFAs and the contracts they sign is that I have strong doubts about whether things like relCF% really come into the picture. I mean, we know that basically half or more of the guys running clubs at this very moment apparently place little emphasis on possession (or at least, the possession stats that people generally use, which are pretty simplistic) since they sign guys that kill possession and employ coaches that place no emphasis on possession. You know, they're old school "Hockey Guys," and even though they grudgingly employ analytics guys, they seem to ignore that **** a lot of the time. I think they tend to focus on the the "traditional" numbers because that's what they've always known. Hence my comment that if you're a 30-point guy, you'll get paid like a 30-point guy--even if you have some deficiencies that the other 30-point guys don't have.

Of course it will evolve, eventually. Though when it does, I think it will involve measures we don't have yet, or don't know we have yet.

I don’t think it will ever evolve beyond using points as THE standard for forward contracts, and rightfully so. It’s not a matter of being stuck in traditional thinking. It’s a matter of asking what the bottom line is.

 

[haveandare]

You don’t pay 2M a year for replacement level players.

In 2018 you sure do

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

In 2018 you sure do

Not that this is a blueprint to be followed to the point, but I came up with this a few years ago while talking with a friend while enjoying some Finnish gin.

First line: 25CH%
Second line: 20CH%
Third line: 10CH%
Fourth line: 5CH%


First pairing: 15CH%
Second pairing: 10CH%
Third pairing: 5CH%

Goalie tandem: 10CH%

Move the percentages a bit here or there, depending on what spots are filled by guys on ELCs.

 

[Doctyl]

I don’t think it will ever evolve beyond using points as THE standard for forward contracts, and rightfully so. It’s not a matter of being stuck in traditional thinking. It’s a matter of asking what the bottom line is.

The question should be what is the best predictor of future success. Are points from the previous season the best statistic we have for predicting points in the next season? I suspect something else correlates better when modeling future success, not that I know what it is (other posters on this board would know more).

Goals, points, and plus-minus are the bottom line stats, but I do not think they tell anywhere near the whole picture. A savvy GM should consider everything when discussing contracts.

 

[Tawnos]

The question should be what is the best predictor of future success. Are points from the previous season the best statistic we have for predicting points in the next season? I suspect something else correlates better when modeling future success, not that I know what it is (other posters on this board would know more).

Goals, points, and plus-minus are the bottom line stats, but I do not think they tell anywhere near the whole picture. A savvy GM should consider everything when discussing contracts.

I’m not saying that those kinds of things won’t be taken into account. Just not as the ultimate indicator. Also, I’m really only talking about contract valuation. Other kinds of statistics are more likely to be used in decision making. i.e. “this is a guy we want to keep or let go” or “this is a guy we want to pursue or pass on”

 

[Filthy Dangles]

You don’t pay 2M a year for replacement level players.

17 goal scorer
Replacement player

Pick one.

Look Vesey isn't a great or even good player but you're going a tad overboard. Cody McLeod is closer to replacement level player than Jimmy Vesey is.

 

[Doctyl]

17 goal scorer
Replacement player

Pick one.

Look Vesey isn't a great or even good player but you're going a tad overboard. Cody McLeod is closer to replacement level player than Jimmy Vesey is.

Replacement player.

McLeod shouldnt be allowed near an NHL roster

 

[Quinnisinoverhishead]

So his AAV should be -1.725M

He needs to pay the Rangers in order to play.

Exactly!

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Except you know, that pretty big thing called scoring goals. I heard those are important in hockey

Wow, you’re right. The difference between 17 in 79 and 13 in 71 is just staggering.

Those extra four goals in more games is certainly “a pretty big thing”. Not like Fast is better at *LITERALLY* every other aspect of hockey.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Except you know, that pretty big thing called scoring goals. I heard those are important in hockey

By your logic, Brandon Pirri is better than Mats Zuccarello.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Wow, you’re right. The difference between 17 in 79 and 13 in 71 is just staggering.

Those extra four goals in more games is certainly “a pretty big thing”. Not like Fast is better at *LITERALLY* every other aspect of hockey.

If you look at the last 2 years, 33 vs 19 is a big difference.

By your logic, Brandon Pirri is better than Mats Zuccarello.

I never said Vesey was a better player. although it's a helluva lot closer than Pirri and Zuccarello.

 

[Ori]

The contract is fine - I also read that he knows the coach from his time in Boston and it might help him to improve his game.

 

[Tawnos]

The contract is fine - I also read that he knows the coach from his time in Boston and it might help him to improve his game.

Yeah, I’m sure the coach from BU spent any notable amount of time talking to a player from Harvard

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

If you look at the last 2 years, 33 vs 19 is a big difference.



I never said Vesey was a better player. although it's a helluva lot closer than Pirri and Zuccarello.

Looking at just goals is a flawed way to compare players. But hey, if you want to look at the last 2 years...

Fast has 54 points in 139 games
Vesey has 55 points in 159 games

 

[Mac n Gs]

Looking at just goals is a flawed way to compare players. But hey, if you want to look at the last 2 years...

Fast has 54 points in 139 games
Vesey has 55 points in 159 games

Does anyone actually think Vesey is better than Fast? Fast is clearly the better overall player.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Don't look now, but Jimmy has 6 points in his last 5 games and on pace for over 25G and 40+Points on the season. Turning into the perfect 3rd line player.

 

[Good Intentions]

Don't look now, but Jimmy has 6 points in his last 5 games and on pace for over 25G and 40+Points on the season. Turning into the perfect 3rd line player.

Very wary of “on pace” language after 15 games.

He had a nice pass and finish last night, thank you for the game - but he’s not the “perfect” anything to me. I’m not a Vesey fan, not do I think he will ever be an above average contributor. NHL regular? Maybe. Different market, could see him with a Buffalo or Chicago. I’d be shocked if he was still with us in a couple years. I’ll take Namestnikov over Vesey every day of the week, and it’ll be Lias over both thereafter...

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

When he’s off , I’m with you woth the anger, but when he’s , got 2 like him no?

It’s still a home grown, build from within while letting the kids play given the ages of the original signing and the length of this new one

 

[will1066]

Vesey's stats should be at a BETTER pace. He has missed on open nets and glorious chances since the beginning of the season. He has generated chances pretty consistently through the first month and a half. He has been a good net front presence on the PP. He's made plays happen. If you really want to target someone who's made zero impact, target Spooner.

 

[Inferno]

Vesey has played world's better this year than last. Quinn.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

Vesey has played world's better this year than last. Quinn.

No AV —-> Quinn October/November—> got to like it no?

 

[eco's bones]

Vesey looks like a different player to me. He was never really a player that crowded opponents and took away their space. That's something he's done at least the greater part of the games this season. He's in the way and he's working hard and he's making it hard on people defending him and his confidence is growing. He wasn't nearly that hard of a player to play against in his first two years. At the same time after being scratched two games in a row Buchnevich is pretty much doing the same and Pavel's a player with greater skill than Vesey---so I'm happy with both of them right now. As for this season so far Vesey is easily justifying his new contract.

Quinn is demanding that his players play hard--really pushing them and there are consequences when they don't. That's a good thing.