Proposal: Nylander-Dumba

[BuiumSaveUs]

I know it’s been talked about a lot in other threads but I wanted to make this thread to have a spot where all the Dumba/Nylander opinions can be expressed because this will likely be talked about until next season starts.

Minnesota Talking points:

• Need’s centreman. Toronto fans, is Nylander capable of recreating his current production down the middle?
  
  
• Dumba’s down year was the worst of his career. Didn’t have a full offseason after his pectoral surgery. Paced for 30 goals and almost 60 points in his 24yo season, hit 50 points at 23yo. wasn’t a top pair guy this year but he would be on most teams (including the leafs) and was looking like he was going to take the reigns from Suter as our 1D for the next 5+ years.

Toronto Talking points:

• Is Dumba the type of defenseman they should be targeting to pair with Reilly
• Can Nylander get a better RD/Does Toronto have better options in the right side

Friedman said today in his 31 thoughts that Nylander could be moved but it would require a top-4 RD to be coming back.

I think the sentiment amongst wild fans is that it’s a trade that makes sense for both side.

Click to read more...

 

[KaprizovEntitlelist]

Why do you keep bringing this up? So wild should take a chance that Nylander can become a top c?

Are we really doing this? This isn't a chance you take

 

[The Podium]

Nylander is fine offensively at C but gets a bit lost in the D zone. Not his typical "bad at D" more that he just doesnt understand the position.

He has a history of playing C, and most of his recent stints are admittedly while hes rusty. I just dont see him being as effective as a C as he is on the wing.

 

[bernmeister]

Nylander not a C
but Leafs still add

both talented but RD < $ worth more than RW > $

 

[Halla]

Nylander not a C
but Leafs still add

both talented but RD < $ worth more than RW > $

RD coming off terrible season is not worth more than RW coming off stellar season

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

RD coming off terrible season is not worth more than RW coming off stellar season

I would think the Nylander’s season last year balances it out somewhat. I’d still prefer the guy that just produced, but given the position and wage gap, I think it evens out

 

[Halla]

Nylander played C in the AHL and his first stint up in the NHL. He can play it, but he is probably more effective on wing.
Any team looking to acquire him would be better off thinking of him as a RWer

also no to this deal. the leafs arent moving Nylander, but if they did Dumba is not the type of dman they would look to get, especially after the Barrie trade was a bust. Dubas isnt gonna move a better player for a lesser dman than that trade

 

[Halla]

I would think the Nylander’s season last year balances it out somewhat. I’d still prefer the guy that just produced, but given the position and wage gap, I think it evens out

Dumba missed 50 games, and hasnt been the same since. Nylander just had a career year..personally I dont see it as balanced at all.
Leafs arent gonna be after an offensive type dman after the Barrie didnt exactly work out anyways. Targets are likely Manson,Brodie,Tanev, Hamonic, Demelo etc

 

[bernmeister]

RD coming off terrible season is not worth more than RW coming off stellar season

only if there is a reason to think the RD will not rebound

 

[I am Canadian]

Nope

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Nylander is fine offensively at C but gets a bit lost in the D zone. Not his typical "bad at D" more that he just doesnt understand the position.

He has a history of playing C, and most of his recent stints are admittedly while hes rusty. I just dont see him being as effective as a C as he is on the wing.

If it's Dumba that goes, we'll still have Suter, Spurgeon and Brodin to anchor a pretty darn good team defense. It's not like our top 6 forwards were Selke winners as they stood last season, and we were still fairly elite defensively, so getting "a little bit lost" is probably acceptable if it's paired with offensive production that we've rarely seen out of the center position, at least in the last decade.

If we're talking about a 70+ point winger that would only be a 60+ point center, it's probably still worth it for us. If we're talking about maybe scraping by the 50 point mark, then it's not. I know it's hard to quantify the % chance at each point level (50, 60, 70, etc...), but there's definitely one that would make sense for us even if it wasn't 100%.

 

[Menzinger]

Leafs pass.

Dumba is nice but they don't need a guy to run the pp from the D nor do they need a offensive driver. The fact that he's had a couple questionable seasons and doesn't have much term left are also big constraints on the deal

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Nylander not a C
but Leafs still add

both talented but RD < $ worth more than RW > $

We probably wouldn't even ask them to.

 

[biotk]

It's not up to me, but I don't want Dumba. Has nothing to do with his down year, as I didn't want him before that either. I don't think he is what Toronto should be looking for, and I think he has been carried by much better partners throughout his career.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

It's not up to me, but I don't want Dumba. Has nothing to do with his down year, as I didn't want him before that either. I don't think he is what Toronto should be looking for, and I think he has been carried by much better partners throughout his career.

You're probably right from 2014-17, but that's really just a young player developing. 2017-19 he was definitely an even participant on the pairing. 2019-20 was a step back, but right now we're still only talking about a steady upward trajectory that was interrupted by an injury. It's not like it's been 3 or 4 seasons since his peak.

 

[biotk]

You're probably right from 2014-17, but that's really just a young player developing. 2017-19 he was definitely an even participant on the pairing. 2019-20 was a step back, but right now we're still only talking about a steady upward trajectory that was interrupted by an injury. It's not like it's been 3 or 4 seasons since his peak.

You are free to believe that, and you might be right. I am extremely skeptical of a D who has spent his whole career playing with extremely good D partners. Leafs fans saw this with Holl this season (great with Muzzin - poor without).

Over the course of the two seasons you mentioned he played 1887 minutes at 5v5 with Brodin (most common), Suter and on occasion Spurgeon. He had an xGF% of 53.1% and allowed 10.0 HDCA/60

In 228 5v5 minutes with other D he had an xGF% of 42.6% and allowed 12.9 HDCA/60.

Over the past two seasons Brodin is in the 87th percentile for TOI against elite opposition, Spurgeon is in the 86th, Suter the 77th and Dumba the 61st. And yet Dumba was in the 94th percentile for QoT.

It is obviously not up to me, and Dubas and his team have to be the ones to make the evaluation, but I simply think that Dumba would get completely lit up in Toronto without the safety blanket that Brodin and Suter provide him.

But even if that is not the case, I still don't think that Dumba is the kind of D the Leafs' need. They need a big, physical, either all-around or defense first D to play with Rielly, go up against the highest quality of competition (Rielly is 90th percentile) and man the first PK.

 

[Morgs]

Nope. Doesnt even come close to moving the needle.

 

[Legegendsofthenorth]

I was on the bandwagon for Nylander for awhile as a MN fan but was convinced by others it's not worth the risk of hoping he could play center so am off now.

The Wild aren't trading either Dumba or Brodin for anything but a true center. If they don't get one back I don't think their traded. Won't make sense.

 

[2Pair]

You are free to believe that, and you might be right. I am extremely skeptical of a D who has spent his whole career playing with extremely good D partners. Leafs fans saw this with Holl this season (great with Muzzin - poor without).

Over the course of the two seasons you mentioned he played 1887 minutes at 5v5 with Brodin (most common), Suter and on occasion Spurgeon. He had an xGF% of 53.1% and allowed 10.0 HDCA/60

In 228 5v5 minutes with other D he had an xGF% of 42.6% and allowed 12.9 HDCA/60.

Over the past two seasons Brodin is in the 87th percentile for TOI against elite opposition, Spurgeon is in the 86th, Suter the 77th and Dumba the 61st. And yet Dumba was in the 94th percentile for QoT.

It is obviously not up to me, and Dubas and his team have to be the ones to make the evaluation, but I simply think that Dumba would get completely lit up in Toronto without the safety blanket that Brodin and Suter provide him.

But even if that is not the case, I still don't think that Dumba is the kind of D the Leafs' need. They need a big, physical, either all-around or defense first D to play with Rielly, go up against the highest quality of competition (Rielly is 90th percentile) and man the first PK.

William Nylander's XGF% when playing with Auston Matthews - 53.4
William Nylander's XGF% when playing with John Tavares - 56%
William Nylander's XGF% when playing without Matthews and/or Tavares - 48.8%

Who could've guessed that limited minutes with lesser players would lead to poor statistics?

 

[57special]

I think the proposed trade isn't a great fit, but is in the ballpark. A few points;

- trade is 1 for 1, Leafs gain 1m in cap space. Not a lot, but nice.

- Dumba isn't a shutdown defender, but he is a lot better than Barrie in the regard. He is only 6' , but is quite strong. He has definitely improved defensively over the years, and his strength and speed help him recover, and along the boards.

- If Nylander ends up being poor at C, then WTH do the Wild do? Kind of a problem.

Not the worst trade, but i can see both teams looking for a better fit somewhere else.

 

[biotk]

William Nylander's XGF% when playing with Auston Matthews - 53.4
William Nylander's XGF% when playing with John Tavares - 56%
William Nylander's XGF% when playing without Matthews and/or Tavares - 48.8%

Who could've guessed that limited minutes with lesser players would lead to poor statistics?

Thanks. That is my point. Matthews has always done just as well no matter who he plays with because he carries the line. Nylander doesn't. Dumba only has decent numbers because of who he plays with. Unless the trade is Dumba and Brodin we would find out real fast that Dumba was being carried by stronger D partners.

 

[2Pair]

Thanks. That is my point. Matthews has always done just as well no matter who he plays with because he carries the line. Nylander doesn't. Dumba only has decent numbers because of who he plays with. Unless the trade is Dumba and Brodin we would find out real fast that Dumba was being carried by stronger D partners.

Not sure you could've missed the point any more than you did. Get yourself a map. Quick.

 

[biotk]

Not sure you could've missed the point any more than you did. Get yourself a map. Quick.

You don't have a point. You only think you do. Brodin always has good numbers no matter who he plays with. Same with Matthews. Dumba doesn't because he is carried by his partner.

 

[Sota Popinski]

You don't have a point. You only think you do. Brodin always has good numbers no matter who he plays with. Same with Matthews. Dumba doesn't because he is carried by his partner.

Nylander doesn't either. How did you miss that?

 

[2Pair]

You don't have a point. You only think you do. Brodin always has good numbers no matter who he plays with. Same with Matthews. Dumba doesn't because he is carried by his partner.

Who the f*** cares about Matthews in this conversation? How f***ing lost can you be? Let me give you another example of players that you may know that will hopefully help you understand how utterly awful your point actually is.

Morgan Reilly's XGF% when paired with Tyson Barrie - 54.4
Morgan Reilly's XGF% when paired with Cody Ceci - 49.6

Guess Reilly is a guy that gets carried by his partners as well. Maybe the Wild should sign Barrie to play with Brodin, would have to be the greatest Dpair in the league by your brutal logic.