Player Discussion Nylander After the Contract

[Confucius]

Nylander is 2-3% to high for cap % or 2-3M AAV.

11.5 /87.5 = 13.14%

He has been a guy in the 10-11% range his the last 4 year of this deal outside of 35 games this season.

0.105 × 87.5 = ~9.19M which is around fair value for his past historical production

UFAs almost never see increases in production/maintaining during their final big deals. There are a few guys who did this (Patty Kane, Panarin) but more examples of the opposite (Toews, Tavares, Gaudreau, Richards, Huberdeau, etc)

We gave him a deal he wasnt playing up to from ages 23-28. Expecting ages 29-36 to deliver 13.1% of cap value is impossible.

Nylanders greed will turn the market against him. He is going to be the next Mitchell Marner.


Treliving + Shanny absolutely screwed up not initiating a retool in the summer

Nylander should have gone at the draft and we could have been in a position to actually contend when JT disapears.

Nylander instead is going to give us 80-90 pts and 9M value at 11.5M hit. He i going to be on the John tavares path to disdain amongst the fanbase

I realize that but the anger should be directed at the ones that gave him the deal. I don’t hold it against William just as I don’t hold it against JT.

JT plays like he always had and so will William.

 

[hamzarocks]

Maybe, maybe not. His father had the strongest r seasons at 33-35 years of age.


I think your comparables are on the lower side. He was likely heading to 11.5-12.5 % of the cap before the season started, his production so far.has changed things (though as stated earlier in the thread it's still an overpay from the Leafs imo)

And 2-3 seasons from now his aav will be below 12.5% of the cap.

Cap % always go down as the cap rises, this doesnt matter

What matters is:

1) Did he deserve that contract at time of signing based on past performances - Resounding no for me. He has a career high of 87 in high scoring league. He wasnt getting 13.1 x 7 on the UFA marlet (amt to beat his 11.5 x 8). We bid against no one and overpaid heavily.

2) Is his contract one which can be lived up to as he aged and physically diminishes - Unlikely, very unlikely. He would have to be a Panarin or Kane type player to do so.

3) Are his comparables signing similar Cap % or giving discounts. - Reinhart is signing this summer, his comps before this 35 game stretch were Fiala, Ehlers, Meier, and other guys in that tier. Will see if he reverts back to his ~ppg self or can stay as a 100+ pt player.

Leafs players (16, 34, 91, 88 now) have all signed higher cap % vs their comps and did so at lower term (16 and 34) to be able to get more % then their comps again in 4/5 years.

Nylander contract has incredible risk. He has zero seasons of being a elite player (top 15 to 20 player in the league).

This is his first, with him looking like 7th or 8th best player after 41 games. He looks over valued/prices based on his results

 

[Stephen]

Yup this is a very good point. Hit the nail on the head with this analysis. That's why you've got to respect players like Kucherov , Draisaitl and P. Kane. They are stone cold killers inside and despite people labelling them one dimensional or power play merchants they have got it done in the playoffs and have that inner will to get everything they can out of the opposition. Don't get me started on the shortcomings of our stars. They are a joke in comparison.

It's just endlessly annoying to me how these guys just don't have normal hockey responses when challenged. Nathan Mackinnon comes to Toronto, snatches the sleepwalking OT point from you late in game, and you come out so flat against Detroit like "meh it's a cold day in January."

 

[Drytoast]

Maybe, maybe not. His father had some of his strongest seasons at 33-35 years of age.


I think your comparables are on the lower side. He was likely heading to 11.5-12.5 % of the cap before the season started, his production so far.has changed things (though as stated earlier in the thread it's still an overpay from the Leafs imo)

And 2-3 seasons from now his aav will probably be below 12.5% of the cap.

His father played in a different era. This is peak Nylander who isn't worth 11.5 today. He certainly won't be worth 11.5 in 2031.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Where did you see me panicking when I clearly said "He'll get it back"?

Sorry - a general comment not directed at you in particular.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

His father played in a different era. This is peak Nylander who isn't worth 11.5 today. He certainly won't be worth 11.5 in 2031.

Brother , I really couldn't give two shits what a billion dollar corporation like MLSE is paying William Nylander in 2031. Russia could nuke us off the map by then. AI could develop a robot army and replace us as humans. All I care about is having the best chance to win in the playoffs RIGHT NOW and keeping Nylander around and happy undoubtedly does that.

 

[Dragao6]

One day we'll realize it's caphit % that matters not aav. The salary cap of 2031 is going to VERY different than it is in 2024,

What if leafs fans really get mad, stop going to games and buying jerseys and the cap goes down by 2031?

Brother , I really couldn't give two shits what a billion dollar corporation like MLSE is paying William Nylander in 2031. Russia could nuke us off the map by then. AI could develop a robot army and replace us as humans. All I care about is having the best chance to win in the playoffs RIGHT NOW and keeping Nylander around and happy undoubtedly does that.

You kinda contradicted yourself
Because nylander making 11.5M doesn’t let them sign players willing to get rough In the harder playoff games so yeah you should care what leafs are paying Nylander!

 

[notDatsyuk]

Be prepared to be disappointed, I fully expect Nylander to drop back to way below a ppg.

"Back to way below a ppg" like he hasn't been in 2 1/2 years?

 

[Nineteen67]

Will he be the highest paid player at the world championships?

 

[notDatsyuk]

View attachment 803895

11.5 mil players rarely do this. Because 11.5 mil players are suppose to be top 5 point getters in the league.

Unless you play for Toronto, in which cause 11.5 mil players are whomever has nice hair I guess.

Doesn't go in the corners, Willy just f***ed us for the next 8 years.

Matthews has done it three times this year.

 

[Darcy Tucker]

What if leafs fans really get mad, stop going to games and buying jerseys and the cap goes down by 2031?


You kinda contradicted yourself
Because nylander making 11.5M doesn’t let them sign players willing to get rough In the harder playoff games so yeah you should care what leafs are paying Nylander!

Do you realize the salary cap will be seriously higher next decade?

I mean it's a fair opinion to guess that Nylander won't be worth 11.5 in his final two years but all that matters is having him locked in gives us the best chance to win in the present day.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Will he be the highest paid player at the world championships?

Will anyone but you care?

 

[Dragao6]

Do you realize the salary cap will be seriously higher next decade?

I mean it's a fair opinion to guess that Nylander won't be worth 11.5 in his final two years but all that matters is having him locked in gives us the best chance to win in the present day.

Yes I do
Just being dumb in comenting that u can’t just assume things will go super well which will result in helping the leafs cap situation.
Your comment on having nylander locked up is all that matters which gives us the best chance to win is still a HUGE question mark though

 

[Darcy Tucker]

Yes I do
Just being dumb in comenting that u can’t just assume things will go super well which will result in helping the leafs cap situation.
Your comment on having nylander locked up is all that matters which gives us the best chance to win is still a HUGE question mark though

I really don't think you invest the 11.5 in 2 other players and get anywhere close to Willy's production and clutch scoring. Look at what 8.5 got us in Domi and Bert. They might not get 25 goals between the two of them.

 

[Drytoast]

Matthews has done it three times this year.

Matthews gets paid to score goals.

Matthews has two scoring titles under his belt so while I believe he is overpaid compared to his peers, at least he's delivered twice already...possibly three times this year.

Willy? Willys argument was he put up points. Because we sure as shit aint paying 11.5 mil for a 40 goal scorer are we? He doesn't go in the corners and his defensive game is suss. So he was putting up raw points this year and was top in scoring. Top 3 when the the contract was signed.

So top 5 in the league for points do not go many games without putting up SOMETHING. it's been 3 games now and he's been invisible. The law of averages is going to balance out in the second half of this season and I predict he ends up with something more akin to what he's already done in the past.
He is NOT a league top 5 scorer. He just isn't. And it remains to be seen if he can actually hit 100 points.

We overpaid by about 2 mil on this asshole.

 

[Dragao6]

I realize that but the anger should be directed at the ones that gave him the deal. I don’t hold it against William just as I don’t hold it against JT.

JT plays like he always had and so will William.

Your 100% right

The problem is that 88 apparently was asking for this from the beginning and as a ufa he had all the power so took advantage of the leafs being rich to not let him walk
U can’t just kinda demand to make what he is and then not except to be heavily criticized when he stops producing or doesn’t produce as much as he should for what he makes. Team has been Crap and he been invisible, doesn’t work that way.
I for one would not have signed him the first time unless he accepted our offer, this time around I would have left it till end of season to play out the season and see what happens even if he ended up walking. But all accounts say he wanted to stay, he likes his buddies and attention of the leafs and what drives me nuts is that he would not have gotten more on the open market as some seem to think so this contract was alittle mind blowing

 

[Dragao6]

I really don't think you invest the 11.5 in 2 other players and get anywhere close to Willy's production and clutch scoring. Look at what 8.5 got us in Domi and Bert. They might not get 25 goals between the two of them.

Our problem in playoffs is always scoring
If we invest his cap on a actual #1 goalie and a partner for rielly I think 16,34,91 and who ever else we can find can score enough to win

 

[LeafEgo]

I realize that but the anger should be directed at the ones that gave him the deal. I don’t hold it against William just as I don’t hold it against JT.

JT plays like he always had and so will William.

I hope so because Willy gets better every year.

 

[Nineteen67]

Will anyone but you care?

Team USA might?

 

[notDatsyuk]

Our problem in playoffs is always scoring
If we invest his cap on a actual #1 goalie and a partner for rielly I think 16,34,91 and who ever else we can find can score enough to win

Our problem is scoring so we should give away our second best scorer.

Matthews gets paid to score goals.

Matthews has two scoring titles under his belt so while I believe he is overpaid compared to his peers, at least he's delivered twice already...possibly three times this year.

Willy? Willys argument was he put up points. Because we sure as shit aint paying 11.5 mil for a 40 goal scorer are we? He doesn't go in the corners and his defensive game is suss. So he was putting up raw points this year and was top in scoring. Top 3 when the the contract was signed.

So top 5 in the league for points do not go many games without putting up SOMETHING. it's been 3 games now and he's been invisible. The law of averages is going to balance out in the second half of this season and I predict he ends up with something more akin to what he's already done in the past.
He is NOT a league top 5 scorer. He just isn't. And it remains to be seen if he can actually hit 100 points.

We overpaid by about 2 mil on this asshole.

I must say that I'm impressed by how completely you missed the point.

 

[Drytoast]

Our problem is scoring so we should give away our second best scorer.


I must say that I'm impressed by how completely you missed the point.

You are comparing Matthews point production to negate my point about Willy going pointless in 3 games.

I just explained to you why you can't compare the two. But I guess you missed it.

 

[DarkKnight]

I think he fluctuates between 90-100 for the good years, and I say this as a big fan.

Just feels like the psychological makeup of our Big 4 guys is they let the foot off the gas and don't have that extra gear to sustain a scoring title pursuit (Art Ross) and go for stretches with dysfunctional PP's and stuff like that... just sucks that we see old Willie the week we give him the new deal. The timing of this down turn cannot piss me off more.

Curious why we think 90-100 when his career high was 87 last year. Obviously this year, but if you look at his career, he’s only been a point a game player once, this looks more a contract motivated outlier year to me.

 

[ToneDog]

Our problem in playoffs is always scoring
If we invest his cap on a actual #1 goalie and a partner for rielly I think 16,34,91 and who ever else we can find can score enough to win

They will use Tavares' money to help fill the holes in two years. Until then, business as usual.

 

[ToneDog]

Curious why we think 90-100 when his career high was 87 last year. Obviously this year, but if you look at his career, he’s only been a point a game player once, this looks more a contract motivated outlier year to me.

Willie clearly has a hit a new level. I guess how many points you believe he gets in subsequent years is whether you believe he can sustain this level (for his sake he better) or not. I believe he can so I can see him putting up 90+ for most of the lifetime of the contract.

 

[notDatsyuk]

You are comparing Matthews point production to negate my point about Willy going pointless in 3 games.

I just explained to you why you can't compare the two. But I guess you missed it.

Willy's job is to generate offence, so when he doesn't for three games, he's a failure.

Matty's job is to generate offence, so when he doesn't for three games, he's still great.

I may understand what you're really saying better than you do.