Value of: Not Many #1 Picks in Play

[Petes2424]

Going to be fun to see someone that no one expects going for something absurd including a 2025 1st round pick (I.e. Jeannot).

What’s funny is, I fully expect it. Wait until it’s Ben Chiarot

 

[John Mandalorian]

Yup. Basically if the right player comes available Leafs will help you complete a retool in exchange for trying to win now. We have a handful of great future pieces. All of them are available for the right player even though we need them

As you say that, Nick Foligno is wasting away in Chicago.

 

[cyris]

If you dont have a 2025 1st rounder, it is going to cost a top prospect. For the Maple Leafs, teams are going to be asking for Cowan. The Jets, Lambert.

Teams can trade first round picks in future drafts. The reason a lot of these teams don’t have firsts in the up coming draft is in many of the cases because they were already traded at past deadlines.
If you are a rebuilding team it’s often not a big deal to have to wait a year for a pick, it can often even be preferable if you already have multiple extra picks to stager them a bit.

 

[HockeyVirus]

As you say that, Nick Foligno is wasting away in Chicago.

Have to talk to Kyle Dubas about him

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Was just thinking, Sabres should be selling their 1st just about now. If they want any fans at all they gotta chase playoffs, we don’t need another Savoie 3 years down the line. Ok, it could also be Cozens or Benson, but the time to strike is now! I figure we should crawl outta the basement a bit either way, that pick looks it’s highest right now.

 

[TheKrebsCycle]

If you dont have a 2025 1st rounder, it is going to cost a top prospect. For the Maple Leafs, teams are going to be asking for Cowan. The Jets, Lambert.

Doubt anyone is available that would move the leafs hand ( I’m not saying he’s unavailable in general just for the projected crop of deadline players; which looks super weak )

 

[Djp]

Was just thinking, Sabres should be selling their 1st just about now. If they want any fans at all they gotta chase playoffs, we don’t need another Savoie 3 years down the line. Ok, it could also be Cozens or Benson, but the time to strike is now! I figure we should crawl outta the basement a bit either way, that pick looks it’s highest right now.

Not seeing them moving their 1st unless it's for a U24 player as part of a bigger trade.

The idea if thus thread usx1st for typical rentals at the deadline. Buffalo is not in that market

 

[Frenzy31]

I think you are looking at the wrong part of the trade.

I think the bigger and more important question is: who are the big name UFAs this year and what is their value?

I can’t see the leafs or Aves parting with their big guys so who does that leave and are they even worth a 1st?

Provo is the big name UFA D. Who is the big name UFA forward? Blues will likely make Saad available, but he isn’t worth more than a couple of 2nds.

This maybe a year where 1st are not moved, not due to lack of, but more due to the players available.

 

[dgibb10]

I think the Leafs are open for business. That doesn't mean they are going to make a massive trade to do it, but if one is there that makes sense they are willing to give up their top prospects in Cowan, Minten, Danford, etc and future picks (2nd this year, 2026 first, etc).

Would need to be for a top 6 center with at least a few years of term or another similar valued piece that actually impacts the roster and not just random rental 3rd line vet guy.

Top 6 Cs with term, that also fit into the leafs cap cost a LOT of assets.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Top 6 Cs with term, that also fit into the leafs cap cost a LOT of assets.

I listed a lot of assets, also forget the cap. Leafs have 22M+ this offseason not an issue. Just don't want a boat anchor being passed off as helpful

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Was just thinking, Sabres should be selling their 1st just about now. If they want any fans at all they gotta chase playoffs, we don’t need another Savoie 3 years down the line. Ok, it could also be Cozens or Benson, but the time to strike is now! I figure we should crawl outta the basement a bit either way, that pick looks it’s highest right now.

Would love to see them go for it. What kind of player would they be looking for?

FYI moneypuck has them at 5.4% to make the playoffs, 5.8% to get the #1 overall pick. So it could be a legendary move either way.

Sidenote - lots of people forget that the leafs were in line for the #1OA pick in the Lindros draft, but had traded that pick away the summer before. They ended up buying at the deadline just so they wouldn’t finish DFL and suffer the embarrassment of having traded away the Lindros pick…

 

[leeroggy]

I'm pretty sure the Jets will package a first and a prospect for a 2C or RD.

What if you could get both? If trade clause issues are not there, how do you get both Nelson and Pulock/Mayfield (don't bother asking for Dobson)?
Assuming the $2,500,000 to 4,000,000 cap space you have already and the ability to retain by the Isles, and add Iafallo as a one-year cap dump at $4 million:

Nelson (50% retained)
Pulock or Mayfield
for
Iafallo (Cap dump)
2025 1st (not exactly a great pick likely)
Freij
Conditional if Nelson extends, Winnipeg sends Lucious to the Isles for a 7th

 

[Rorschach]

Did I miss something?

OP put #1 in the title, which to most on this board including myself means 1OA to us. Then in the post he is talking about first rounders, which 31/32 times is definitely not 1OA.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

There are still a fair number of teams “in the mix” so to speak.

As teams inevitably fall off, I think the sellers pool will increase accordingly.

In theory, it's possible that the "in the mix" teams could end up being relatively even with each other and therefore still in the mix, and as a result, not sell until pretty much the trade deadline.

 

[KingsOfCali25]

I wouldn't move the pick but with Rob Blake running things, then LA's 1st rounder is always open to be moved.

 

[viceroy]

Because there's an elite top 4 I think teams are going to be reluctant to trade that opportunity. Now if it's top 5 protected then yes, but the value isn't as high.

I think this year a lot of 1st rounders are gonna get moved because the draft outside of the top is pretty weak. Most of the top teams or even those in the mix will be willing to trade 'em because of this. As always those that suck will be unwilling to trade their own 1st rounders.

Carolina, Washington, and Dallas are all notoriously pretty stingy about keeping their first rounders.

Understandable for the Caps since they're nominally in the middle of a re-tool but CAR and DAL won't because they're not really interested in winning a Cup. They're on the old San Jose track, competitive but unwilling to be a true contender.

Ok, it could also be Cozens or Benson, but the time to strike is now! I figure we should crawl outta the basement a bit either way, that pick looks it’s highest right now.

Is BUF legit thinking about trading him? I could see MTL being real interested. Howsabout CGY's 2025 1st, Mesar and 2 of Roy/Mailloux/Kapanen/Farrell/Kidney?

I listed a lot of assets, also forget the cap. Leafs have 22M+ this offseason not an issue. Just don't want a boat anchor being passed off as helpful

Yeah but Marner, Tavares and Knies have to be re-signed no? I could see #16 at 13-14, #91 at 6-7 and #23 at 3-4.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Yeah but Marner, Tavares and Knies have to be re-signed no?

Knies will be bridged, Tavares is not getting close to 11. Leafs have him by the balls he basically said he is not going anywhere else. He will make less than half what he does now. Marner we will see. Depends how the season goes he might walk and we change the team with his cap space. Otherwise, should still have 5+M in cap to add to the team next offseason even after doing all of those things and accounting for raises.

 

[viceroy]

Knies will be bridged, Tavares is not getting close to 11. Leafs have him by the balls he basically said he is not going anywhere else. He will make less than half what he does now. Marner we will see. Depends how the season goes he might walk and we change the team with his cap space. Otherwise, should still have 5+M in cap to add to the team next offseason even after doing all of those things and accounting for raises.

What do you think of my estimations?

I could see #16 at 13-14, #91 at 6-7 and #23 at 3-4.

 

[HockeyVirus]

What do you think of my estimations?

I could see #16 at 13-14, #91 at 6-7 and #23 at 3-4.

If Marner gets 14 won't be with the Leafs. And to be honest he would have to be an idiot to want to get paid like that here after his last contract. JT I see more like 4-5. #23 sounds about right.

 

[creg]

Marner has all the leverage here, losing him for nothing would be disastrous and there will be plenty of teams lining up to give him whatever he wants if he went to market. Dude is going to get a comparable to the Matthews contract this off season for sure.

 

[StlBigFly]

I think the league is amazing with its hard cap and rules in that it’s very hard for every team to take the same strategy.

They can’t all get young at the same time as an example, they’re aren’t enough players

The only one that they could all take is to elect to hold onto their 1sts.

It seems many teams view it as an extremely valuable asset but I’m not sure the late round picks are trending to be more valuable. If they are they that maybe is why hoarding would occur.

I like Vegas’ approach a lot. It seems more effective than the rest. But I wonder how the leagues future looks if tons of early development prospects are changing teams. It wouldn’t really matter for Canadian junior guys I guess.


.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I only need one of them to trade one for Mikael Granlund.

 

[GeeoffBrown]

Did I miss something?

This poster does not like the title of the thread

 

[ProfessorFink22]

If Marner gets 14 won't be with the Leafs. And to be honest he would have to be an idiot to want to get paid like that here after his last contract. JT I see more like 4-5. #23 sounds about right.

JT is riding a ppg this year, doesn't 4-5 seem incredibly low? I don't think that he's made comments that he wants to stay a Leaf, etc. are damning enough to cost him a few million. I think he's at least 7-8 million, even that is a discount. I guess it all depends on how many years both sides look for.

If I'm missing something, feel free to provide.

 

[HockeyVirus]

JT is riding a ppg this year, doesn't 4-5 seem incredibly low? I don't think that he's made comments that he wants to stay a Leaf, etc. are damning enough to cost him a few million. I think he's at least 7-8 million, even that is a discount. I guess it all depends on how many years both sides look for.

If I'm missing something, feel free to provide.

Leafs have him by the balls. He basically has said he has no interest in going anywhere else, he came here because his family is here and he has several small children growing up around family, in school, etc. If he were to go somewhere else his family would stay in Toronto.

So he can move away somewhere else for potentially an extra 2-3M a year after already having a career earning north of 110 million, or he can take under market rate, stay where he wants with trade protection, and give the team a chance to win.

And also, I won't be shocked either if the Leafs give him term. Like 6 years at 3-4M or something.