Not good enough - no playoffs again!

[Nac Mac Feegle]

The plus/minus distribution on this team is wonky.

Stutzle is a +1 along with 6 other guys and Tkachuk and Batherson are -1.

A bunch of guys between -2 and -6.

Meanwhile, Jensen is a +12 and Sanderson is a -12 with Hamonic as a -7.

The next highest to Jensen is Chabot, with a +2.

What are the stats for quality of competition? I wouldn't be surprised if Sandy is being "Cecied" by always facing the toughest opponents and trying to shut them down while also dragging around a mediocre partner. (I'm too lazy to look for myself, so just making a guess here.)

 

[Stylizer1]

I feel like we thought they were better than they were. Like other teams fans wouldn't rank them nearly as high as we did. Hoffman was pretty one dimensional and inconsistent. Turris though a good two way center, was more of a second line center... Ryan was slow and not a good top 2 line player for most of his time here. MacArthur missed like 90% of a 2-3 year window.

The team had no depth and no structure and no elite skill.

Stone was good. Zibanejad later became good. Karlsson was good. You only really had 2 stars and one who later became one after being gone.

The team's winning cups at that time were stacked with star power and depth and structure compared to that team.

They relied on Karlsson,Anderson, and stone, and other than Karlsson, those guys weren't even near the top guys in the league at their position.


It was all pesky and timing and being clutch. Karlsson and Anderson and stone were not superstars(well, Karlsson was) but it was the fact that they were so clutch that they could go on a winning steak to save the season or win a playoff round.

This team is better on paper, but lacks any type of "clutch" ability to even make the playoffs or go on a streak or do anything right when it matters it seems.

This team has no superstars. Just having a 90 point season doesn't pass the smell test for me if you are on the losing end of most games. If your plays are the deciding factor on our success or your play is consistently on par with the other teams elite then you get the nod from me. BRADY and Stu are borderline AllStars. Too many players in the league are point a game players now and they just don't stand out.

I'm still holding out hope that they bring Karlsson home. He has the type of skill our D needs and would let everyone slot down a spot and be more comfortable. He may not be the Karlsson of 5 years ago but he is still an allstar level talent with tons of experience and a real vet this team needs.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Win a couple, lose a couple is how it goes for the vast majority of teams in the league. The difference is that playoffs teams squeeze in a few extra wins in between and those that don't squeeze in a couple extra losses. The difference between those two things are razor thin. For example, had we won yesterday, we'd have a better record than the Oilers themselves, the cup favs going into the season. If we're at a point in the season where flipping the outcome of a single game dramatically changes the outlook, that means it's way too to panic, or way too late.

Both the underlying metrics and the eye test show that the team is dramatically better this season. Staios is right, people need to chill the f*** out. Overall, the team is playing very well. There is always room for improvement, but it's no time to panic. This is an 82 game season, not a 25 game season.

They haven't won more than 2 games in a row this year. We're 1 point out of LAST PLACE IN THE CONFERENCE. People aren't chill because this team hasn't given them a reason to be chill. What's so f***ing hard to understand about this situation?

What are the stats for quality of competition? I wouldn't be surprised if Sandy is being "Cecied" by always facing the toughest opponents and trying to shut them down while also dragging around a mediocre partner. (I'm too lazy to look for myself, so just making a guess here.)

He doesn't have a single even strength point this year. I feel like that would be a good place for him to start, no?

 

[PlayOn]

This team has no superstars. Just having a 90 point season doesn't pass the smell test for me if you are on the losing end of most games. If your plays are the deciding factor on our success or your play is consistently on par with the other teams elite then you get the nod from me. BRADY and Stu are borderline AllStars. Too many players in the league are point a game players now and they just don't stand out.

I'm still holding out hope that they bring Karlsson home. He has the type of skill our D needs and would let everyone slot down a spot and be more comfortable. He may not be the Karlsson of 5 years ago but he is still an allstar level talent with tons of experience and a real vet this team needs.

Carolina has been making the playoffs for years and even winning playoff rounds without multiple superstars. They have Aho.

This superstar conversation feels more like a convo you have for a team that’s successful but not winning in the playoffs. You don’t need MacKinnon and Makar just to get in the playoffs.

The reality is without the high powered offences of teams with top 5 players in the league you need depth, goaltending and defense. The Kings don’t have a single superstar and they’re a playoff team because they have guys like Kopitar and Doughty, who although they are far removed from their primes, that know how to win. We don’t need these guys to be superstars right now. We need better goaltending and more contributions offensively from players not named Stützle, Tkachuk, Batherson, Norris, Gaudette, Chabot and Jensen.

 

[Big Muddy]

Win a couple, lose a couple is how it goes for the vast majority of teams in the league. The difference is that playoffs teams squeeze in a few extra wins in between and those that don't squeeze in a couple extra losses. The difference between those two things are razor thin. For example, had we won yesterday, we'd have a better record than the Oilers themselves, the cup favs going into the season. If we're at a point in the season where flipping the outcome of a single game dramatically changes the outlook, that means it's way too to panic, or way too late.

Both the underlying metrics and the eye test show that the team is dramatically better this season. Staios is right, people need to chill the f*** out. Overall, the team is playing very well. There is always room for improvement, but it's no time to panic. This is an 82 game season, not a 25 game season.

In each division, there’s three teams (in one division, there is 4) that have a lot more wins than losses (and high points %). To be clear, I’m not disagreeing with everything you are saying. But, there is an upper strata which I’m hoping is the goal for our beloved Ottawa Senators.

Just trying to scrape into the playoffs isn’t a real high bar as half of the teams make the playoffs each year and some of those teams are pretty mediocre (understatement).

I’ll always cheer them on, but at some point, you have to start wondering just how good our core (or our collection of players) is in comparison to those top teams I referred to above. We talk about having a good core here, but at some point, you do have to see some results. And, the point is not to get into the “we don’t need superstars” debate either. If you prefer to think of it as a collection of very good players, that works as well. I haven’t written the season off by any measure, but there is a point when the would of/could have/should have and the underlying metrics just aren’t enough. I thinks its pretty reasonable to think that this is the year that they need to produce the results.

 

[Beech]

This is a small market, low revenue team in a quiet city. Only chance we have of winning a championship is to catch lightning in a bottle and get some spectacular kids who can roughshod on the league while still on their ELCs or on a sweetheart bridge deal. And in another 2-3 years, the salary cap will be over $100 million. How the ever living f*** are we ever going to compete with that kind of salary market?

Pretty much as you wrote.

BUT, all of that requires one thing. An Amature side that knows what it is doing.

We have discussed this at length over the last 5 years!! nothing changes. DUPLICATE the magic of 1996-2001. DRAFT well.

No more Collin White, No more Gabriel Gagne, No more Filip Chlapik....2015
No more Logan Brown, Jonathan Dahlen....2016
No more Shane Bowers, Alex Formenton...2017
No more Johnny Tychonic...2018
No more Lassi Thomson, Mats Soggard..2019

14 players drafted in R1 and R2.. 10 are either outright busts or about to go to jail or in Mats S's case, taking the scenic route.

Add to it 11... JBD, enjoying the game from the stands
Add to it 12... Chabot, making 9.5 Million this year and on an 8 AAV contract and playing like 4/5 D man.

Brady and Pinto are the only ones, playing at expectation (draft order and salary).

TWO guys... 14 picks.

Hopefully this management team is not this bad. And then, the team should easily compete.

 

[Big Muddy]

Carolina has been making the playoffs for years and even winning playoff rounds without multiple superstars. They have Aho.

This superstar conversation feels more like a convo you have for a team that’s successful but not winning in the playoffs. You don’t need MacKinnon and Makar just to get in the playoffs.

The reality is without the high powered offences of teams with top 5 players in the league you need depth, goaltending and defense. The Kings don’t have a single superstar and they’re a playoff team because they have guys like Kopitar and Doughty, who although they are far removed from their primes, that know how to win. We don’t need these guys to be superstars right now. We need better goaltending and more contributions offensively from players not named Stützle, Tkachuk, Batherson, Norris, Gaudette, Chabot and Jensen.

Sure, different models and ways to get there. Doesn’t matter in the end though. We need to demonstrate results. Results = Wins. Just win baby. And I really hope the goal is not to just scrape into the playoffs either.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

He doesn't have a single even strength point this year. I feel like that would be a good place for him to start, no?

For sure, it would be nice to have Sandy putting up more points. But his real bread and butter is his defensive play. I can't quite tell if he's taken a backward step in that area this year, or if he's dealing with tougher matchups (and a lesser partner) which is causing the problems.

 

[jbeck5]

This is a small market, low revenue team in a quiet city. Only chance we have of winning a championship is to catch lightning in a bottle and get some spectacular kids who can roughshod on the league while still on their ELCs or on a sweetheart bridge deal. And in another 2-3 years, the salary cap will be over $100 million. How the ever living f*** are we ever going to compete with that kind of salary market?

Ok, so if that's the case, let's go with the strategy that is the most likely to catch lightning in a bottle.

Pittsburgh is exactly what you described, yet they've won multiple cups, for example. Every time they've won cups it's from tanking and getting superstars whether it's Lemieux and jagr or Crosby and malkin.

To be fair, we competed when there was no salary cap. We competed with a payroll of 25 million when players weren't UFAs until 29 and then could sign in new York, Colorado, Detroit, Toronto, etc who were spending like 80 million.

So it would probably be the same strategy. Suck and build through the draft but do it with high end scouting and management, not mid to low end scouting and management.

 

[maclean]

I mean, nothing against Green, maybe he's great, but the one thread tying together our years of bottom-feeding is rookie coaches. I really hoped this management would turn the page on that. And again, Green may be fine (and I guess technically not a rookie, fine) but if I were in charge I would've really wanted to just bring in someone accomplished.

 

[PlayOn]

Sure, different models and ways to get there. Doesn’t matter in the end though. We need to demonstrate results. Results = Wins. Just win baby. And I really hope the goal is not to just scrape into the playoffs either.

For this year I think that is the goal. I’ll take scraping into the playoffs over bottom 10 finishes.

It’s not like these players and this team can’t improve from here. There’s still work to be done on the roster and the core.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Ok, so if that's the case, let's go with the strategy that is the most likely to catch lightning in a bottle.

Pittsburgh is exactly what you described, yet they've won multiple cups, for example. Every time they've won cups it's from tanking and getting superstars whether it's Lemieux and jagr or Crosby and malkin.

To be fair, we competed when there was no salary cap. We competed with a payroll of 25 million when players weren't UFAs until 29 and then could sign in new York, Colorado, Detroit, Toronto, etc who were spending like 80 million.

So it would probably be the same strategy. Suck and build through the draft but do it with high end scouting and management, not mid to low end scouting and management.

Agreed. We will live and die on the draft. But I also think we're going to be more of a roller coaster....going young and cheap, and for a 2-4 year window spend to cap, then tear down and repeat.

Of course, you also need "luck" to suck and get 1st overall when a generational kid just happens to be in his draft year.

 

[Big Muddy]

For this year I think that is the goal. I’ll take scraping into the playoffs over bottom 10 finishes.

It’s not like these players and this team can’t improve from here. There’s still work to be done on the roster and the core.

I’d say its OK if we barely squeak in this year IF we go on a deep run the following year. Something like winning a couple of rounds & getting into the Conference final would be a decent Year 2 milestone. But if its just squeaking in multiple years in a row, to me that isn’t a huge achievement. That would be achieving mediocrity imho.

 

[Alex1234]

This is a small market, low revenue team in a quiet city. Only chance we have of winning a championship is to catch lightning in a bottle and get some spectacular kids who can roughshod on the league while still on their ELCs or on a sweetheart bridge deal. And in another 2-3 years, the salary cap will be over $100 million. How the ever living f*** are we ever going to compete with that kind of salary market?

Not to forget also the taxes (Flo, Vegas,Dallas , Nash have zero tax)
As exemple a 9.5 Vegas Stone cost 13.5ish here

So for every 2 players at 9.5MM$ a team possess they get to hire a Stu on top of that under the cap compared to us
Massive difference

 

[PlayOn]

I’d say its OK if we barely squeak in this year IF we go on a deep run the following year. Something like winning a couple of rounds & getting into the Conference final would be a decent Year 2 milestone. But if its just squeaking in multiple years in a row, to me that isn’t a huge achievement. That would be achieving mediocrity imho.

Yeah idk about a run next year but I’m not advocating perpetual mediocrity here. Like anything expectations will rise as we have more success, no one wants this to land on us being a perennial 8th seed either.

But as we haven’t seen playoffs in 7 years, I’m not overly worried about how we get there or what we do when we finally do get there the first time. My bigger concern is another miss.

 

[swiftwin]

They haven't won more than 2 games in a row this year. We're 1 point out of LAST PLACE IN THE CONFERENCE. People aren't chill because this team hasn't given them a reason to be chill. What's so f***ing hard to understand about this situation?

If we win tonight, we're literally back in a playoff spot. What's so f***ing hard to understand about that?

 

[OUT HOUSE]

Vegas is +135 to win tonight, easiest money of my life.

 

[Alex1234]

For sure, it would be nice to have Sandy putting up more points. But his real bread and butter is his defensive play. I can't quite tell if he's taken a backward step in that area this year, or if he's dealing with tougher matchups (and a lesser partner) which is causing the problems.

If true that leaves us with no real offensive Dman
Maybe Yak is the guy but ...

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

What's the alternative? Sounds worse.

Re-tool, I personally have no interest in a full scorched Earth rebuild, again. They often don't work out, the majority of the time if Chips are your baseline, and the Senators have been "rebuilding" for most of my adult life now between Murray's and Dorion's attempts. This whole idea that there's no option but to give up for half a decade and trade everyone is not something I fully agree with, especially with how it doesn't end in championships the majority of the time anyways.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Vegas is +135 to win tonight, easiest money of my life.

I hope the Sens destroy Vegas tonight

 

[Alex1234]

If we win tonight, we're literally back in a playoff spot. What's so f***ing hard to understand about that?

Not if NYI win tonight
Or if we win by one (Buff stays in front of us by the 6th tie breaker procedure)

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Every season I am recording every game at the beginning, watching every play of every minute of every period then as the season goes, it feels more and more like a waste of time so I gradually cut the corners.

Ya, the last couple seasons I've cut away from games pretty quickly when they get down by more than 1. I hated the Korpisalo signing so much that it sort of sent me into last season feeling bitter, but I felt rejuvenated this year with the old regime finally cleaned out entirely. I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet this year, but it definitely gets old watching loss after loss.

 

[Big Muddy]

Re-tool, I personally have no interest in a full scorched Earth rebuild, again. They often don't work out, the majority of the time if Chips are your baseline, and the Senators have been "rebuilding" for most of my adult life now between Murray's and Dorion's attempts. This whole idea that there's no option but to give up for half a decade and trade everyone is not something I fully agree with, especially with how it doesn't end in championships the majority of the time anyways.

Good counterpoint, but I suspect some will drone on with the same message over and over.

 

[Relapsing]

Not even 20 games in and I feel apathetic.

To me, watching hockey is a means of escapism. Something to look forward to and set aside time for. For 3 hours every couple of days, it's an opportunity to tune the rest of the world out, cheer of a bunch of guys that make an obscene amount of money, and shit talk with the rest of you in the GDT. In return, all I expect is everyone's best efforts most of the time. God knows they're paid handsomely for it.

Fans of a rebuilding team have hope for the future. Winning teams offer the promise of playoff hockey where anything can happen. What are we supposed to expect from this team?

That 3 game stretch of utterly dominant play, only to miserably lose games right after kind of broke me as a fan. Like the team rewarded our patience and fandom by punishing us for it.

What does this team need to do to reverse course? I have no f***ing idea. I'm not a knowledgeable enough fan to figure it out. Frankly, I don't really care what the solution is anymore - do whatever it takes.

In an environment where accountability is preached, where is it? Who's getting benched for bad play? Who's being taken out of the lineup when they don't perform? Who's feeling the pressure to wake the f*** up or else they're going to get shipped out?

Love Brady all you want, but I am thoroughly unimpressed this year. Offer up all the excuses you can, it doesn't matter to me anymore. Where is the player that were told drags his team into the fight every night? I'm just not seeing it. And no team can win games with only one (Jimmy) or two players actually giving a shit.

My only real comfort this year has been seeing Jimmy becoming the player I expected him to become: dynamic offense with reliable defensive play - he's grown leaps and bounds in regards to the latter.

But that's not enough to keep me watching games when you can see the loss coming.

Hope may spring eternal, but the more you pile rocks around it, the harder it is to drink from the spring. Too many slow and useless rocks blocking up my hope well, and I'm getting sick of it.

 

[Big Muddy]

If we win tonight, we're literally back in a playoff spot. What's so f***ing hard to understand about that?

If true that leaves us with no real offensive Dman
Maybe Yak is the guy but ...

Yep. We need to create some separation as opposed to being in a fate controlled position. Too many bad things can happen to teams hovering around .500