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Not good enough - no playoffs again!

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Answer said:
Yeah man we been getting unlucky for past 3+ seasons

before it was the ownership and management
then it was the rebuild
then players are too young
then ownership and management again
then coaching
then coaching again
then goaltending
include the fans as well
then goaltending again
now luck isn't in our favor
soon to be coaching again
followed by another goaltending
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You're missing Covid, Zaitsev, illegal gambling, officiating, injuries, among other things
 
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I think some are selling Stutzle short a bit... Since 2022-23 when he was 20 y/o, he has the 18th most ES pts, tied with Clayton Keller and Kirill Kaprizov. 20th most pts, 21st best PPG among forwards...

I mean, 20 to 22 y/o and he's already among the best. And he's not playiong with other elite forwards, high end talent in Tkachuk/Batherson/Giroux but not elite (anymore in Giroux's case)

Big Muddy said:
I’d wonder how November’s advanced stats look versus October’s?

It wouldn’t be surprising if there’s a regression. It's a question as I haven’t looked tbh (too lazy I guess). Regression could be a key word as a sample based on October is kind of small.
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No time to check right now but I think they even got a little better in November.

Problem? Ullmark not making the saves, shooters not converting enough on their chances

Karterthadon said:
I have a shitload of friends who are Habs fans and one of the things they brought up was that their team will never be a legitimate Cup contender if Suzuki and Caufield are the two best players on their team, they need more talent. I think this is the realization that we need to come to about the Sens as well, Stützle and Tkachuk as our two best players is never going to cut it either, we need more talent.
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Suzuki and Caufield are going to be their tier 2 forwards, Demidov and Slafkovský probably their 2 best. Hutson looks like a game breaker too. Thank Alfie they passed on Michkov

Karterthadon said:
A legitimate SC cup contending core, IMO, is 5 elite players. Tampa had Hedman-Stamkos-Vas-Kucherov-Point. Chicago had Toews-Kane-Keith-Seabrook-Hossa. The Kings had Doughty-Kopitar-Quick-Brown-Carter and so on.

As currently constructed, I believe we have 2 of our 5 in Stützle and Sanderson but we still need to add 3 elite pieces to turn this around for good. I'm not saying Tkachuk is not good enough to be part of a core 5 (I think he is) I just believe his time in Ottawa has run out.
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Agreed that Tkachuk and Batherson are great but you don't want them to be your #2 and #3. They would actually need to be #3 and #4. Ideally, we'd have another Stutzle level forward...

I'd be good with : Stutzle - Stutzle2 - Tkachuk - Batherson - Sanderson - Chabot
 
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This isn't meant as a troll, just bewilderment, but I don't understand why your new owner would pay almost $1 billion for a team and then cheap out on GM and head coach?
 
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Mosby said:
This isn't meant as a troll, just bewilderment, but I don't understand why your new owner would pay almost $1 billion for a team and then cheap out on GM and head coach?
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Indeed, same patterns carrying over from previous ownership. Instead of going out and grabbing the most experienced, qualified proven leadership with a successful track record, we go for the complete opposite. Time and time again. Everything else flows downhill from there. Mediocrity at its finest, such a travesty.
 
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Mosby said:
This isn't meant as a troll, just bewilderment, but I don't understand why your new owner would pay almost $1 billion for a team and then cheap out on GM and head coach?
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The GM was his guy who won him championships in junior. Agree or disagree with the move, I don’t think he cheaped out - he went with the guy he knew.
 
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SENStastic said:
Indeed, same patterns carrying over from previous ownership. Instead of going out and grabbing the most experienced, qualified proven leadership with a successful track record, we go for the complete opposite. Time and time again. Everything else flows downhill from there. Mediocrity at its finest, such a travesty.
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I think the sweet spot is where te team makes the most money is right here. If they become better less hand outs from the NHL. Not sure about attendance but Andlauer may be taking advantage of that new owner smell.as long as he can because as long as attendance and season tickets are good theyay be maximizing the revenue sharing they receive. Not sure that's how it works but Melnyk was playing those kind of games.
 
swiftwin said:
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This would be encouraging for the next 20 games if they had only lost to the good teams they played. But they also lost to Montreal, Buffalo, Philadelphina and the Islanders.

The Ducks games coming up may seem like “easy wins”, but rest assured, Anaheim is also looking at the schedule and saying “Oh good we play Ottawa we can pick up points there.”
 
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Relapsing said:
The big problem I have with a qoc/SOS argument is simple: the way they've played in this last stretch of games, the qoc wouldn't have mattered. They continue to come out flat and don't do the good things that got them wins earlier.
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Ok, but it presumably would have mattered for the first stretch, and our record would presumably be better, no? I also find this line of thought removes agency from the opposition, we're basically saying that Car, VGK and Edm only won because we sucked, maybe part of why we sucked is because they played well, that's kind of what good teams do and those three are all very good teams. This type of thinking was apparent when some people were quick to say Toronto didn't show up against us,

In the end, every team has ups and downs, no team plays it's best game 82 games a year. We are no different in that regard.
 
swiftwin said:
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OK, so let’s hope the schedule helps us going forward.

If we look at the lesser (standings wise) teams we lost against, they are:

Qty 5: Flyers, Islanders, Oilers, Ssbres, Canadiens

If we look at the lesser (standings wise) teams we won against, they are:

Qty 4: Bruins, Kraken, Blues, Utah

So that’s 5 losses and 4 wins against lesser teams. If you want to move the Oliers to better team category, then fine, the record would be 4 losses & 4 wins or just .500.

So, let’s hope we perform much better against the lower standings teams than we have so far this year.
 
Big Muddy said:
So, let’s hope we perform much better against the lower standings teams than we have so far this year.
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Well, that's historically how sports work when you have a larger sample. It's kind of the entire reason instead of just skipping straight to the playoffs.
 
Micklebot said:
Well, that's historically how sports work when you have a larger sample. It's kind of the entire reason instead of just skipping straight to the playoffs.
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Another way hockey seasons go historically is that if you are out of the playoffs around American Thanksgiving and have several teams to leap frog to get a wild card spot, the team typically does not make the playoffs. I agree with the entire season point (obviously) of course and hope that the Senators crush the lesser (lower in the standings) opponents along with winning more than our fair share against better opponents. But, I think you do need to look at both sides of the coin, no?
 
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34% chance of making playoffs and 88 point projected for the year they are exactly what they are and have been for the last 5 years very bad team .if you think luck and playing better then there record is reason for where they are your delusional .they have a multi year resume of same record and endless excuses .
 
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Big Muddy said:
Another way hockey seasons go historically is that if you are out of the playoffs around American Thanksgiving and have several teams to leap frog to get a wild card spot, the team typically does not make the playoffs. I agree with the entire season point (obviously) of course and hope that the Senators crush the lesser (lower in the standings) opponents along with winning more than our fair share against better opponents. But, I think you do need to look at both sides of the coin, no?
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Absolutely, we need to be better. We have a favourable schedule going forward, that makes us more likely than average to beat the trend you mentioned about american thanksgiving, but it doesn't guarantee it.

The good news is we know guys like Sanderson, Pinto, and Ullmark can be a lot better than they have been this season. If those guys can find their form from last year, we're looking very different than we have to date. I'd be more concerned if everyone was playing to expectations and we were in the same position.
 
I thought I’d so some “rough” math.

I think we need to win around 39 more games to get into the playoffs. That would be a .620 pts percentage in the remaining games. It would also help if the wins against teams we are currently needing to leap frog wouldn’t have any loser points either. This is based on 95 points are needed to make the playoffs (based on a google search).
 
Big Muddy said:
I thought I’d so some “rough” math.

I think we need to win around 39 more games to get into the playoffs. That would be a .620 pts percentage in the remaining games. It would also help if the wins against teams we are currently needing to leap frog wouldn’t have any loser points either. This is based on 95 points are needed to make the playoffs (based on a google search).
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I think this year 91-92 will probably be good enough to get you in.
 
Big Muddy said:
I thought I’d so some “rough” math.

I think we need to win around 39 more games to get into the playoffs. That would be a .620 pts percentage in the remaining games. It would also help if the wins against teams we are currently needing to leap frog wouldn’t have any loser points either. This is based on 95 points are needed to make the playoffs (based on a google search).
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The goose is facking cooked!
 
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After these next two home games vs Vancouver and then Calgary, we play 13 of the next 18 games on the road.
We play 9 in a row on the road starting December 17th to January 7th.
Our road record this year is 3-6-0.
Needless to say this next 20 game period will be a challenging part of their schedule.
Will they be able to float? Or sink?
 
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