Not good enough - no playoffs again!

[Karterthadon]

2) We do still have enough talent to where we should be at least competing for a playoff spot, and we’re underperforming based on what we do have.

Do we really? I think the results of the past few years, and where this is sadly trending again this year, tells us otherwise. It seems like the ceiling for this core as constructed is to be fighting tooth and nail to snatch the last playoff spot year in year out.

 

[Relapsing]

I do think if a couple games had gone their way earlier and goaltending hadn't shot them in the foot again, we probably aren't here atm, but they just look fragile now. No belief in themselves. No belief in their goaltending.

And in turn, diminishing faith in them from fans.

Rightly so, IMO.

Time is a commodity. So is patience. So is faith. We all have a finite amount of any of it. These players have a shrinking window left during which they can pull themselves together. There is no excuse worth the time it takes to write it out to not see this team pick themselves up, shake off a bad loss, and get back to work.

Frankly, I'm at the point where I welcome change. Either let me have hope in the now, or in the future. I don't care which. To lack it entirely is a death knell to any sane persons fandom.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

And in turn, diminishing faith in them from fans.

Rightly so, IMO.

Time is a commodity. So is patience. So is faith. We all have a finite amount of any of it. These players have a shrinking window left during which they can pull themselves together. There is no excuse worth the time it takes to write it out to not see this team pick themselves up, shake off a bad loss, and get back to work.

Frankly, I'm at the point where I welcome change. Either let me have hope in the now, or in the future. I don't care which. To lack it entirely is a death knell to any sane persons fandom.

Hard to blame anyone for being frustrated. It is hard to keep watching.

You're right they are running out of time with this group. As a fan, I'd rather see significant change than running it back, that's for sure. I'm still not running away because I waited a decade to be rid of an owner that gave them no chance, and I'm confident they will move this thing in the right direction, eventually, but it is certainly frustrating atm. I had to shut it off prematurely last night just to preserve my mental state lol. With the Oilers not looking like a serious contender with their roster, I'm thinking it might just be a good year to sit out from much hockey watching.

 

[Beech]

We probably should be worried:

19 gms played 17 points

Montreal; 19 gms played 16 points
The Blue team: 20 gms played 26 points

It gets worse
Buffalo...yup them: 19 gms played 19 points.

And worse
Blue Jackets: 19 gms played 18 points

Luckily, we can still thumb our nose at Chicago, San Jose and the Preds.

Is it too early for: Forsaken for Hagen or: Their Dull for Frondell

 

[Relapsing]

We probably should be worried:

19 gms played 17 points

Montreal; 19 gms played 16 points
The Blue team: 20 gms played 26 points

It gets worse
Buffalo...yup them: 19 gms played 19 points.

And worse
Blue Jackets: 19 gms played 18 points

Luckily, we can still thumb our nose at Chicago, San Jose and the Preds.

Is it too early for: Forsaken for Hagen or: Their Dull for Frondell

Ouch. Having a worse record than CBJ really stings. Don't @ me anyone about strength of schedule either: it's clear this team hasn't come prepared to play over multiple games this season, regardless of the opponent.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I do think if a couple games had gone their way earlier and goaltending hadn't shot them in the foot again, we probably aren't here atm, but they just look fragile now. No belief in themselves. No belief in their goaltending.

The problem is that shit happens to every team, every team makes mistakes that ends up in the net, every team's goalie has bad games.

This roster is proving to be incapable of recovering from setbacks. It is a bit ridiculous how the Philly game, a game where we were dominant has led to this skid. It is kind of sad really.

I haven't given up, it is still early, but I'm definitely starting to wonder if this core can be salvaged from the damage Dorion/Melnyk inflicted on them.

The team is playing so much better than they did under DJ Smith, even when the team looks flat under Green, they don't look completely outmatched like when DJ was in charge.

The results are a major bummer but the team plays like it belongs in the NHL, this hasn't been the case for a long time. We looked like a Junior team for most of Dorion's tenure.

It feels like we are so close to being good but the core's confidence is too easily shattered. They never learned how to get back up after a gut punch.

 

[Norris4Norris]

Some people say that the Sens are better than their record says they are.

I never understood this. As a team you are exactly as good as you're record shows. If not then why give points for wins and keep count over time?

I don't want to hear how better we are playing this year offensively etc. etc.

We suck as an NHL team. Most other fanbases would never swap their prospects and players for ours.

 

[Stylizer1]

I think everyone is slotted too high. I don't think Stutzle is a superduperstar. I don't think Sanderson is a top 10-15 NHL defenseman.

I think Tkachuck needs the right guys around him to mask his weaknesses. He's not a bona-fide #1 guy star.

Greig, Pinto, Norris, Batherson are all OK, not great. Not game changers in any facet.

There's no Alfie, Karlsson, Matthews, Kucherov, Chara, Marchand, Price, Modano, Kopitar, Draisatal level of player.

You need those kind of guys to be a perennial playoff team. I don't think they have any.

To use the example of 5 great players to be a cup contender, the only guys right now are Stutzle, Sanderson, Tkachuck, but they should all be #4 or # 5. There are no #1 or #2.

Nobody is scared to play against Norris, Batherson, Chabot, Sanderson, Pinto etc. Brady and Stutzle pose problems, you have to keep track of them at least, but they can be neutralized.

Thank you. Except for Price, but thank you.

 

[Stylizer1]

This is what happens when you get rid of talented players who you drafted. Karlsson was a generational talent you cannot replace and we never have. We may never get that lucky again.

We need a stud center to build around.

 

[BigRig4]

Some people say that the Sens are better than their record says they are.

I never understood this. As a team you are exactly as good as you're record shows. If not then why give points for wins and keep count over time?

I don't want to hear how better we are playing this year offensively etc. etc.

We suck as an NHL team. Most other fanbases would never swap their prospects and players for ours.

I get what you’re saying. I think what people mean is that, based on their underlying numbers, you would ~expect~ a better record.

 

[Micklebot]

Some people say that the Sens are better than their record says they are.

I never understood this. As a team you are exactly as good as you're record shows. If not then why give points for wins and keep count over time?

I don't want to hear how better we are playing this year offensively etc. etc.

We suck as an NHL team. Most other fanbases would never swap their prospects and players for ours.

Hockey has a pretty high luck factor when it comes to the final score. Over an entire season, that tends to even out across teams, but the smaller the sample, the more likely it is that luck played a bigger role in your results.

 

[Norris4Norris]

I get what you’re saying. I think what people mean is that, based on their underlying numbers, you would ~expect~ a better record.

I understand that. With all of the advanced stats my question to you would be, do you expect the Sens to win next game?

When I watch them I see a team with no killer instinct, they cycle and they cycle and they lose.

Hockey has a pretty high luck factor when it comes to the final score. Over an entire season, that tends to even out across teams, but the smaller the sample, the more likely it is that luck played a bigger role in your results.

19 games? To me that is not a small sample. Almost a quarter of the way through a season. It looks like, to me, that there is more than just bad luck at play here.

 

[Micklebot]

19 games? To me that is not a small sample. Almost a quarter of the way through a season. It looks like, to me, that there is more than just bad luck at play here.

It might not feel like a small sample, but statistically it tends to be for goal based metrics. It's also important to understand that QOC isn't anywhere close to uniform at this point.

Right now, we've had the second toughest schedule in the league, while our remaining schedule is the 6th easiest.

NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings

Strength of Schedule Played and Strength of Schedule Remaining for all 31 NHL teams.

powerrankingsguru.com

 

[Cosmix]

I mean statistically Tkachuk is a top 25 forward & top 6 winger in terms of production.

In terms of production, I'd say its fine to add Tkachuk to Stu and Sandy as the elite core.

Sanderson has not been playing like a core player lately.

The salaries being paid ID the core. Three are NOT playing like Core Players.

Tkachuk - $8.2M
Stutzle - $8.3M
Norris. - $7.9M
Sanderson - $8.0M
Chabot - $8.0M

 

[Forgetful]

They should if they haven't already tried, bring in a sports psychologist, if that has been done or doesn't work than a shake up is needed

 

[bicboi64]

Sanderson has not been playing like a core player lately.

The salaries being paid ID the core. Three are NOT playing like Core Players.

Tkachuk - $8.2M
Stutzle - $8.3M
Norris. - $7.9M
Sanderson - $8.0M
Chabot - $8.0M

Valid point. Ullmark being there next year over Norris makes the core better, but still Chabot being in the core doesn't scream contender.

 

[Cosmix]

This is what happens when you get rid of talented players who you drafted. Karlsson was a generational talent you cannot replace and we never have. We may never get that lucky again.

We need a stud center to build around.

We need a stud defenceman and stud goaltender too! A triumvirate!

 

[DrEasy]

It might not feel like a small sample, but statistically it tends to be for goal based metrics. It's also important to understand that QOC isn't anywhere close to uniform at this point.

Right now, we've had the second toughest schedule in the league, while our remaining schedule is the 6th easiest.

NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings

Strength of Schedule Played and Strength of Schedule Remaining for all 31 NHL teams.

powerrankingsguru.com

Their ranking doesn't take into account key injuries and playing a team on the second game of a back-to-back. I wonder how much easier our QOC (up to now) would be if those factors were taken into account.

 

[Norris4Norris]

It might not feel like a small sample, but statistically it tends to be for goal based metrics. It's also important to understand that QOC isn't anywhere close to uniform at this point.

Right now, we've had the second toughest schedule in the league, while our remaining schedule is the 6th easiest.

NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings

Strength of Schedule Played and Strength of Schedule Remaining for all 31 NHL teams.

powerrankingsguru.com

,Okay, I didn't know the strength of schedule.

I have seen teams, including the Sens, drop off in the second half of the year. If the Sens are looking at an easier schedule and their goal based metrics are good then I will try to keep an open mind.

I have heard that American Thanksgiving standings is usually a good predictor of playoff position, but again I understand your logic.

 

[Alex1234]

I mean statistically Tkachuk is a top 25 forward & top 6 winger in terms of production.

In terms of production, I'd say its fine to add Tkachuk to Stu and Sandy as the elite core.

More like top 35 to be fair

He's finished 118th,125th,112th,80th,35th,58th and is now 33th in the league in terms of production all forwards

 

[bicboi64]

More like top 35 to be fair

He's finished 118th,125th,112th,80th,35th,58th and is now 33th in the league in terms of production all forwards

Where'd you get 33rd in over all forward production?

As of today he's 27th in the league for forward scoring. he's been 29th in terms of overall production int he last 3 seasons. NHL Stats

 

[Alex1234]

Where'd you get 33rd in over all forward production?

As of today he's 27th in the league for forward scoring. he's been 29th in terms of overall production int he last 3 seasons. NHL Stats

I go points per game and remove the outliers (1 game played)
50th -7 outliers =43th in his last 3 seasons or something close

It's good
Just not top 25

 

[Relapsing]

It might not feel like a small sample, but statistically it tends to be for goal based metrics. It's also important to understand that QOC isn't anywhere close to uniform at this point.

Right now, we've had the second toughest schedule in the league, while our remaining schedule is the 6th easiest.

NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings

Strength of Schedule Played and Strength of Schedule Remaining for all 31 NHL teams.

powerrankingsguru.com

The big problem I have with a qoc/SOS argument is simple: the way they've played in this last stretch of games, the qoc wouldn't have mattered. They continue to come out flat and don't do the good things that got them wins earlier.