Speculation: Nostradamus Thread: Who do we lose in the Expansion Draft?

[bob77]

One interesting part of the rules is that a player must be exposed as such:

i) One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

Assuming the Kings will protect Drew, Muzz, and Amart, the only 3 D left that can possibly meet this is Greene, Forbort, and McNabb. McNabb already meets this but Forbort and Greene do not until they play 40 games this year. So if the season ended today, the Kings would not be allowed to protect McNabb. They would have to expose him, and then would likely protect Forbort. Once Greene or Forbort reaches 40 games, it gives the Kings the best flexibility. But if for some reason they don't reach 40, say goodbye to McNabb. None of this probably happens

 

[lumbergh]

Question 1)
I believe Kings go 4-4-1 way and select
Forwards: Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli and Pearson
Defence: Doughty, Martinez, Muzzin and McNabb

Lose Lewis, Dowd or Forbort if he play's more than 5th defenceman in Sutter's system after McNabb is back.

Question 2)
Would not mind to lose Lewis.

Question 3)
Think Pens have a good chance but as a Kings fan i wan't to believe Sutter's system and our player's can go long way this year.

Actually, if the Kings protect these eight skaters, then it wouldn't surprise me if Vegas took Gaborik. He would be one of the few legitimate top line players available. They're going to have to string together a top line from somewhere.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I second this all the way through. Not sure why everyone is in love with Forbort right now. The WOWY numbers pretty clearly indicate that Forbort is riding Doughty's back. I would much rather keep McNabb than Forbort.

Dowd is also a good player, but he's not as valuable as McNabb, in my opinion. 5 on 5 Dowd's line is not keeping up. You can tell by the +/- or the goals for %. There's upside there, but he's not a guy the Kings are going to cry about losing.

I've made this case before, that people on this board underestimate McNabb and the quality minutes he produces.

If the Kings protect those eight players, I would guess Vegas would take Forbort or Dowd, but I would prefer they take Brown. Their team is going to be full of second/third line players and middling defensemen along with a pretty good goalie. Probably the smart play by McPhee is to take a guy like Trevor Lewis, who will slot into a particular role.

That's because the vast majority of Forborts mins this year are with Doughty...the rest of the time he's with Gilbert and Greene. Big dropoff there. Not to mention last year, Forbort made EVERYONE better, INCLUDING Doughty--so people are seeing what they're seeing now with the addition of upside, footspeed, and puckmoving, and it's not surprising. The big different is McNabb has had enough games for people to see him struggle, Forbort hasn't hit that skid yet imo. But I agree that McNabb is underrated in general.

 

[Trolfoli]

One interesting part of the rules is that a player must be exposed as such:

i) One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

Assuming the Kings will protect Drew, Muzz, and Amart, the only 3 D left that can possibly meet this is Greene, Forbort, and McNabb. McNabb already meets this but Forbort and Greene do not until they play 40 games this year. So if the season ended today, the Kings would not be allowed to protect McNabb. They would have to expose him, and then would likely protect Forbort. Once Greene or Forbort reaches 40 games, it gives the Kings the best flexibility. But if for some reason they don't reach 40, say goodbye to McNabb. None of this probably happens

*Or Gilbert hits the number of games played and is resigned for next year. Which may happen in case of a Greene injury.

 

[Basilisk]

What if, upon returning from injury, McNabb plays exclusively as a forward on the 4th line? I.e., what if Dean & company proclaim loudly that "McNabb is now a forward"? LoL, is it possible?

 

[kings11]

So let's finally get all the BS out of the way....
Martinez will not be exposed! Ever!!! If Dean feels Forbort has earned a spot on this team going forward Dean will likely protect 4 Dmen.. McNabb is likely to be exposed but with guys like Ryan Murray, Simon Despres or Cam Fowler plus many more I think we lose a forward and it wouldn't surprise me if it was Gaborik...
Now back to Amart, no one ever said he would be left unprotected! The assumption has been if the kids surpass Amart in value to the team "IF", then Dean would be more willing to trade Amart for a desperately needed forward and go with 2 super cheap defensive defensemen who I might add are current going for $3.5-$4.5 mill per... we need to keep kids like Forbort because we have absolutely no one in the system that can replace him and as I stated the going rate for these type of Dmen is high as well...

Thankfully it's still way to early and it will work itself out in the end ....

 

[Tadite]

I previous thread mentioned something I hadn't been thinking about.

Dowd is a UFA in 2018-19 with Forbort a RFA. I just can't think of a reason why Vegas would want a player they're not going to be able to keep after one year. So much of this isn't really just about the talent but the rights and most importantly what they're going to take from other teams. I'm increasingly thinking we are going to go for a 4/4/1 pick.

Kopitar
Tyler
Pearson
Carter
DD
AM
Muzzin
Forbort
Quick

Leaving Vegas to pick probably between Gabbo, Brown, and Lewis. I think they go for Gabbo. They're going to have a rash of 3rd liners and maybe a few guys who can play higher but no one that is a top liner (when not injured). Otherwise they should go for Lewis. Quality 3rd liner. Good on the PK. Decent contract and a good guy in the room. If they need all of that but need to spend more money (that's part of it actually it will be hard to pick up that many 3rd liners and spend enough) then Brown.

 

[KingsFan7824]

The issue with Gaborik is that while he may be talented, he's 35, has now played in 165 regular season games since the end of the 12-13 season, and most importantly has a $5m cap hit until 2021. What is an old winger going to do on an expansion team, with no 1st, and probably not even a 2nd, line center? Could take him for future trade bait, except for that contract.

Have to figure that last 2 guys Vegas goes anywhere near are Brown and Gaborik.

 

[Fishhead]

I second this all the way through. Not sure why everyone is in love with Forbort right now. The WOWY numbers pretty clearly indicate that Forbort is riding Doughty's back. I would much rather keep McNabb than Forbort.

Absolutely. Forbort is playing effectively overall, but he's obviously shielded by Doughty. The numbers have also shown that when McNabb and Doughty are paired, their numbers increase. I think some have forgotten how well McNabb was playing before his injury, and it's fresh in the mind that Forbort has been playing above expectation.

It's always a crapshoot predicting players ceilings, but McNabb has a much higher ceiling to me. They are only a year apart, so it's not like Forbort has a bunch of time to catch up. Ideally, I wouldn't want to lose either. Who knows? Maybe LV wants some toughness and they take Nolan or Clifford. Or maybe they gamble on Mersch's solid AHL numbers. A lot of it is going to depend on who is available from other teams and how much salary room they have as they fill their roster.

 

[LAKings88]

Absolutely. Forbort is playing effectively overall, but he's obviously shielded by Doughty. The numbers have also shown that when McNabb and Doughty are paired, their numbers increase. I think some have forgotten how well McNabb was playing before his injury, and it's fresh in the mind that Forbort has been playing above expectation.

It's always a crapshoot predicting players ceilings, but McNabb has a much higher ceiling to me. They are only a year apart, so it's not like Forbort has a bunch of time to catch up. Ideally, I wouldn't want to lose either. Who knows? Maybe LV wants some toughness and they take Nolan or Clifford. Or maybe they gamble on Mersch's solid AHL numbers. A lot of it is going to depend on who is available from other teams and how much salary room they have as they fill their roster.

This, McNabb is a bit of a whipping boy but he was turning a corner. I don't think Mersch will get much attention. I don't even think he will ever crack the Kings.

 

[LAKings88]

What if, upon returning from injury, McNabb plays exclusively as a forward on the 4th line? I.e., what if Dean & company proclaim loudly that "McNabb is now a forward"? LoL, is it possible?

Never even thought about that. Would be funny if someone tries this. Based on games played likely.

 

[AlphaBravo]

The criticism of McNabb is fair. He has been in the NHL since 2011, and has played two full seasons with the Kings. Although he has the tools to play a physical game, his skating sucks and he frequently has trouble exiting the defensive zone, particularly when he is under pressure. Forbort, on the other hand, has shown better skating, puck movement, and zone exits than McNabb. He is also better at reading the angles than McNabb, although he is less physical. I see higher upside in Forbort's game (Willie Mitchell potential), and do not see a dramatic change in McNabb's game in the near future.

Also, for those saying that Doughty makes Forbort look better, I disagree. If anything Forbort makes Doughty look better and allows Doughty to make the risky plays by driving to the offensive zone. Also, under equal circumstances, McNabb did not look good playing with Doughty (nor did A-Mart).

 

[Fishhead]

Also, for those saying that Doughty makes Forbort look better, I disagree. If anything Forbort makes Doughty look better and allows Doughty to make the risky plays by driving to the offensive zone. Also, under equal circumstances, McNabb did not look good playing with Doughty (nor did A-Mart).

Kind of an odd statement, as Doughty had one of his best all around seasons and won a Norris with McNabb as his partner for a large majority of last season. And their numbers were even better this season.

Forbort isn't an anchor, I think he's playing well. But when he's away from Doughty his play and numbers have not been good.

Since McNabb joined, he and Drew have played 1462 minutes together. They have a GF60 of 2.17, GA60 of 1.31, and a CF60 of 63.41. That's pretty dominant over a large sample.

 

[kings11]

Kind of an odd statement, as Doughty had one of his best all around seasons and won a Norris with McNabb as his partner for a large majority of last season. And their numbers were even better this season.

Forbort isn't an anchor, I think he's playing well. But when he's away from Doughty his play and numbers have not been good.

Since McNabb joined, he and Drew have played 1462 minutes together. They have a GF60 of 2.17, GA60 of 1.31, and a CF60 of 63.41. That's pretty dominant over a large sample.

Nice stats but anyone with one good eye could see that McNabb was making costly mistakes with the puck and was bailed out by DD or other teammates... Forbort and McNabb are almost the same age but IMHO Forbort's game is much more reliable and advanced in every area other than physicality...

 

[Fishhead]

Nice stats but anyone with one good eye could see that McNabb was making costly mistakes with the puck and was bailed out by DD or other teammates... Forbort and McNabb are almost the same age but IMHO Forbort's game is much more reliable and advanced in every area other than physicality...

The problem with just using your eyes is they are inherently biased. It's why two people can watch the same game and come to drastically different conclusions. Muzzin has been terrible with the puck this year, far worse than McNabb was. Yet it's rarely mentioned because he's not a target of ire anymore.

If McNabb was that bad, he wouldn't have a 54.9 CF% in the 1000 minutes he played away from Doughty, along with a GF% of 54.3. His GF% was right there with Doughty and Martinez, and better than Muzzin's, despite getting top competition. You don't make regular mistakes over that many minutes and have those kind of numbers.

 

[kingskring]

In his latest Rumblings, ESPN analyst Pierre LeBrun wonders about retained-salary transactions between the Vegas Golden Knights and the rest of the NHL around the Expansion Draft.

Vegas GM George McPhee recently asked the NHL if other teams would be allowed to retain salary on players exposed in the Expansion Draft.

For example, the Los Angeles Kings are likely going to expose former captain Dustin Brown. Brown signed an eight-year deal back in 2013, when he was coming off a 52-point pace in the lockout shortened season. Brown’s play fell off a cliff the year before the extension took effect, and has not scored more than 28 points in a season since. The now-third-line-forward has five seasons remaining after this one at a whopping $5.875MM per.

McPhee wanted to know if he could offer to take Brown in the Expansion Draft, as long as Kings GM Dean Lombardi retained some of Brown’s salary. This would make Brown a more palatable pick for the Golden Knights, while the Kings would be able to move on from Brown without the high cost of buying him out.

LeBrun reports that Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly told McPhee that retaining salary would not be allowed with expansion picks. He goes on to write that Vegas will be able to make trades shortly after the final expansion fee payment is made on March 1. This gives Vegas an advantage over previous NHL expansion franchises, because they weren’t allowed to make trades until the Expansion Draft to make trades.

http://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2016/12/snapshots-vegas-update.html

 

[Basilisk]

http://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2016/12/snapshots-vegas-update.html

If McPhee is inquiring about Brown, then Dean Lombardi is the best general manager in the history of professional sports....... PERIOD!

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

That's really interesting actually

 

[onlyalad]

If McPhee is inquiring about Brown, then Dean Lombardi is the best general manager in the history of professional sports....... PERIOD!

I look at this as, he used an example that will never happen.

 

[AlphaBravo]

If Vegas is interested in Brown, we can always trade him with salary retained in exchange for the player that they picked up from the Kings via draft.

 

[KingsFan7824]

If Vegas is interested in Brown, we can always trade him with salary retained in exchange for the player that they picked up from the Kings via draft.

Not right away though. By the time they are able to do that, 1/1/18, Vegas might not be interested. Could quickly trade for someone else Vegas picks though.

 

[Basilisk]

If Vegas is interested in Brown, we can always trade him with salary retained in exchange for the player that they picked up from the Kings via draft.

Wouldn't Brown first have to waive his thingy?

 

[kingsboy11]

Wouldn't Brown first have to waive his thingy?

He can list 8 teams that he would accept a trade to. This is an interesting scenario here. I still don't think it's likely that we would be able to get rid of Brown, but it sounds as if McPhee is considering it.

 

[damacles1156]

Brown would want to go East Coast back home, he has a family to think about.

 

[damacles1156]

Forbort/Gravel are both being shielded by assignments/partner/minutes/zone starts.

But that is the way it's suppose to be, when breaking in a new Rookie Defender.

A-Mart/Muzzin nightly face the most Defensive zone starts, and toughest assignment. They also both play 20+ minutes a night.

That makes sense though, they are the most experienced pairing, the Kings have.