Speculation: Nostradamus Thread: Who do we lose in the Expansion Draft?

[Raccoon Jesus]

Answer: Kopitar/Carter/Toffoli/Pearson/Dowd/Gaborik/???? If you only protect 4 forwards you can leave Brown available and say we didn't have enough slots. If you protect 7 forwards it's near impossible to expose Brown.

I know, I definitely have a much harder time coming up with 7 forwards to protect than 4 defenseman.

 

[theMajor]

Both are eligible, AHL years count.

Based on this season, I have been sold on Forbort over McNabb. Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli, Pearson, with Doughty, Muzzin, Martinez, Forbort and Quick.

If they were going to protect somebody else over Martinez, it would be because they traded him, I expect to see things like this across the NHL.

damn that stinks. your list is pretty much exactly what I hope Dean's list looks like. I cant imagine him not protecting Martinez....

 

[KingsFan7824]

Answer: Kopitar/Carter/Toffoli/Pearson/Dowd/Gaborik/???? If you only protect 4 forwards you can leave Brown available and say we didn't have enough slots. If you protect 7 forwards it's near impossible to expose Brown.

I can get at least 9 guys that they might as well protect before Brown. Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli, Pearson, Dowd, Andreoff/Lewis/Mersch/Auger. 10 if you wanted to include Clifford. Shore would make 11. They can leave Brown unprotected all day, every day, Vegas still won't take him, and he'll be a King until at least the end of the 20-21 season. If Vegas wants to take a 35 year old Gaborik taking up $5m in cap space until 2021, more power to them.

As the roster stands today, and just a straight expansion draft(no trades), you have to figure it's Dowd, Forbort, or McNabb that would be taken, depending on who the Kings protect. Maybe Lewis, since he was born close in Utah, and he could be their captain. If Lombardi wanted to get crazy, maybe Martinez.

 

[Docgonzo]

1) McNabb, Forbort seems to have the better hockey IQ than McNabb. McNabb reminds me of a less offense oriented Jack Johnson while Forbort reminds me more of Mitchell.

2) Brain says Brown, heart say Gaborik because I want to see Brown beat Taylor's games played

3) Cup goes to Buffalo, Eichel returns and leads them to victory. Or Edmonton (just because my wife put money down on them.)

 

[ADifferentTim]

Get your pick in now just to say you called it in the beginning of season and then tell all your friends you were right.

3 questions.

Who actually gets plucked in the expansion draft?
Who would you rather see go?

And just for kicks.... who wins the Cup this year?

I pick Brown goes. I'd like to see Brown go. And I'll throw the Cup to San Jose...blasphemy right...

Plucked: Preferably McNabb
Rather: McNabb
Kicks: another team might achieve Nirvana

 

[LAKings88]

I don't think they are going to be good at all. Better than previous expansion teams but I don't think many teams will be hit hard with loses.

The Ducks may be hit the hardest but they have time to sort it out.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don't think they are going to be good at all. Better than previous expansion teams but I don't think many teams will be hit hard with loses.

The Ducks may be hit the hardest but they have time to sort it out.

They're going to be good imo. An entire team full of 2nd/3rd liners and top-4 d-men...they can sling those for some additional pieces too and they have a good GM behind them. Not going to crush people by any means but they will be a large magnitude more competitive out the gate than past expansion teams.

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

McNabb gets taken. Kopitar-Carter-Toffoli-Pearson-Dowd-Gaborik-Mersch/Andreoff (one of the two). Doughty-Muzzin-Martinez. Quick.
Hoping Brown gets taken but that won't happen. Out of Forbort or McNabb (both who I think will be exposed), who would I rather see get taken? Not really sure.
Who wins the cup this year? Sticking with my preseason pick of Tampa Bay.

On another note, what in the world does Pittsburgh do with Fleury for the expansion draft? He has a NMC. He could completely screw things up by not agreeing to waive it.

 

[WHOneedsSOX]

I don't think they are going to be good at all. Better than previous expansion teams but I don't think many teams will be hit hard with loses.

The Ducks may be hit the hardest but they have time to sort it out.

Ducks will be fine. I'm not believing for a second they won't buyout Bieksa. Who cares if he caries a $4 million buyout cap hit? You do it anyways to keep Silfverberg.

 

[kings11]

McNabb gets plucked
Wish Lewis would go
Our Kings win the CUP.... or Montreal or Tampa or... lol

You want a realize Nostrodumbass(lol) prediction....
Forbort and Dowd play their way into DS and DL hearts and get protected..
Martinez is packaged with Clifford to clear salary and get a nice return while at it..
Amadio surpasses Kempe as our top prospect with Klague a close second.... and Amadio makes the KINGS!!!

 

[kingsholygrail]

1. Brown. If he keeps up his good play, I think they will want his leadership qualities for a new club.
2. Brown or Gaborik. Really just relieve us of some sort of contract.
3. Blackhawks.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

McNabb gets taken. Kopitar-Carter-Toffoli-Pearson-Dowd-Gaborik-Mersch/Andreoff (one of the two). Doughty-Muzzin-Martinez. Quick.
Hoping Brown gets taken but that won't happen. Out of Forbort or McNabb (both who I think will be exposed), who would I rather see get taken? Not really sure.
Who wins the cup this year? Sticking with my preseason pick of Tampa Bay.

On another note, what in the world does Pittsburgh do with Fleury for the expansion draft? He has a NMC. He could completely screw things up by not agreeing to waive it.

Pittsburgh will have chance to buy out fleury before expansion draft. If he wont waive theyll buy him out.

 

[Reaper45]

Gaborik gets picked in the expansion draft, King walks as a free agent, Greene and Clifford traded and the Kings say good bye to their cap issues.

 

[Stimpythecat]

1) McNabb gets taken. I don't see vegas taking Brown. Gaborik is more likely than Brown with a lower cap hit, has a cup, still a skilled/fast skater with shorter contract.

2) I'm conflicted. I like showing loyalty to players. Brown has been here his entire career. So a purely cap issue, I would say Brown. From a loyalty standing, I would say Gaborik before Brown.

3) Homer vote. Kings. Our D has steadied. More production from Brown. Just need a healthy Quick back.


Speaking of cap issues, if vegas takes Gaborik (I still think there's a better chance for McNabb), summer 2018 our cap issues are gone and maybe we can sign a major impact UFA.

Summer 2018
Assuming Gaborik is taken by Vegas and no re-signings of the below players:

Gaborik @ $4,875,000
King @ $1,950,000
Purcell @ $1,600,000
Nolan @ $950,000
Greene @ $2,500,000
Gilbert @ $1,400,000
Scuderi @ $180,625

Total: $13,455,625

Purcell, Gilbert, and Scuds aren't even playing. Greene is almost at that point.

Toffoli and Pearson need to be re-signed. Hopefully there will be a cap increase to help with this. And some guys will have to come up from the AHL (remember it's summer 2018 and not currently) and that will eat up some more. But the remaining can hopefully sign a significant impact UFA.

Vegas just needs to cooperate.

 

[Basilisk]

Is it 7-3-1 vs. 4-4-1 ....? Do I have that fact correct? I don't know where to find the answers.... anyway..... If the latter, I could see Dean protecting the following.....


1) Kopitar
2) Carter
3) Toffoli
4) Pearson

1) Doughty
2) Muzzin
3) McNabb
4) Forbort

1) Quick


The thinking might be that the contract length & age of Martinez (29) might make him less attractive to select. Gaborik & Brown, too (obviously). However, this would make Dowd a gonner if Martinez is safe. In any event, we're losing SOMEBODY.....

 

[Fullk89]

Go 7-3-1

Protect
F- Kopi, Toffoli, Carter , Pearson, Dowd,Lewis and Mersch
D- Doughty, Muzzin and Martinez
G- Quick (when he finally returns haha)

Lose- McNabb

 

[KopitarFAN]

Is it 7-3-1 vs. 4-4-1 ....? Do I have that fact correct? I don't know where to find the answers.... anyway..... If the latter, I could see Dean protecting the following.....


1) Kopitar
2) Carter
3) Toffoli
4) Pearson

1) Doughty
2) Muzzin
3) McNabb
4) Forbort

1) Quick


The thinking might be that the contract length & age of Martinez (29) might make him less attractive to select. Gaborik & Brown, too (obviously). However, this would make Dowd a gonner if Martinez is safe. In any event, we're losing SOMEBODY.....

That's correct.

 

[KingsOfCali25]

I know, I definitely have a much harder time coming up with 7 forwards to protect than 4 defenseman.

It is hard to pick the last 2 spots. It came down to Lewis/Mersch/Shore/Gaborik.

I picked Lewis and Mersch to protect because they probably would be taken if left. I doubt Shore would get taken as their are better options on LA to take than him.

I'd leave Gaborik and Brown unprotected because if they get taken who cares. It helps relieve cap issues and gets rid of a bad contract.

We will most likely lose one of McNabb or Forbort.

I'd would rather protect 8 skaters instead of the 7-3-1 but Dowd has made himself too important to leave off the list. If LA did the 8 skaters, I'd protect Forbort over McNabb and hope Dean could swing a deal to have them not take Dowd.

 

[Fishhead]

I doubt LV would take Mersch. He's a 24 year old who doesn't skate well enough to earn a spot on an NHL team not known for speed. There are far more attractive players out there. If they want to take him, that would be one of the least damaging scenarios for the Kings.


And there is no way in hell Martinez isn't protected.

13-14: .36 ppg
14-15: .39 ppg
15-16: .40 ppg
16-17: .64 ppg (not going to sustain, but still..)

He's slowly developing more offense while playing smarter and better defense. If he's made available he is gone 100%

 

[Sheng Peng]

I think McNabb is a cut above everybody else in terms of importance and value, so I'd protect 4F-4D (Kopi, Carter, TT, Pearson, Drew, Muzz, A-Mart, McNabb). And while I'm a big Dowd fan, a solid, young defender with upside usually trumps a forward for me.

If I were Vegas right now, I'd select Dowd. Skilled with upside, a perfect top-six candidate for them. I can see Lewis too, versatile, good leadership, reasonable cost. Forbort's profile is obviously growing too.

Of course, I'd prefer that LA get out of a big contract, but that's not likely. Probably better players, shorter deals for Vegas to pursue.

And ICYMI, I wrote about the Kings' Expansion Draft options earlier today:


Dowd is a popular man!

 

[bob77]

To me, you reexamine the "value" of contracts in relation to the cap world. So, if you even were to expose Kopi, it would relieve you of that contract and give you more cap space to play with. Now, I'm obviously using an extreme example, but to expose Forbort or McNabb would be ridiculous at this point based on value. We should not protect Muzzin and Martinez, and then we'd have $4 of cap extra if they take one of them. It's like cap relief. There are people that advocate trading someone like Martinez, but we'd get back $4 or so or draft picks. Also, it's going to be hard to trade live bodies at the deadline for picks because live bodies need to be protected and picks don't.

 

[USE Fi]

Question 1)
I believe Kings go 4-4-1 way and select
Forwards: Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli and Pearson
Defence: Doughty, Martinez, Muzzin and McNabb

Lose Lewis, Dowd or Forbort if he play's more than 5th defenceman in Sutter's system after McNabb is back.

Question 2)
Would not mind to lose Lewis.

Question 3)
Think Pens have a good chance but as a Kings fan i wan't to believe Sutter's system and our player's can go long way this year.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

To me, you reexamine the "value" of contracts in relation to the cap world. So, if you even were to expose Kopi, it would relieve you of that contract and give you more cap space to play with. Now, I'm obviously using an extreme example, but to expose Forbort or McNabb would be ridiculous at this point based on value. We should not protect Muzzin and Martinez, and then we'd have $4 of cap extra if they take one of them. It's like cap relief. There are people that advocate trading someone like Martinez, but we'd get back $4 or so or draft picks. Also, it's going to be hard to trade live bodies at the deadline for picks because live bodies need to be protected and picks don't.

The problem is you're not getting a good #2 dman--never mind a great one--for the value you have Muzz at. Martinez is more palatable, but still not likely. It's not really cap relief as we'd just be hoping to find a good replacement--and then we'd have to pay that replacement more in short order too. Only way you expose Muzzin is if we're going nuclear.

I also don't think live bodies WONT be traded--I think they'll be traded as always. They'll just likely have to be seen as rentals more than usual because of potential draft exposure.

 

[bob77]

The problem is you're not getting a good #2 dman--never mind a great one--for the value you have Muzz at. Martinez is more palatable, but still not likely. It's not really cap relief as we'd just be hoping to find a good replacement--and then we'd have to pay that replacement more in short order too. Only way you expose Muzzin is if we're going nuclear.

I also don't think live bodies WONT be traded--I think they'll be traded as always. They'll just likely have to be seen as rentals more than usual because of potential draft exposure.

.

Ok, I agree Muzzin or Martinez might not be it, but I do believe we need to think value as opposed to who you think is the absolute better player. That's why you don't protect Brown. The rental thing will relate to UFAs, and yes I agree there will be some of that, but for trying to trade players with more years to their contract in order to at least get something out of it isn't going to be easy to do because all 30 teams will be thinking the same way.

 

[lumbergh]

Question 1)
I believe Kings go 4-4-1 way and select
Forwards: Kopitar, Carter, Toffoli and Pearson
Defence: Doughty, Martinez, Muzzin and McNabb

Lose Lewis, Dowd or Forbort if he play's more than 5th defenceman in Sutter's system after McNabb is back.

Question 2)
Would not mind to lose Lewis.

Question 3)
Think Pens have a good chance but as a Kings fan i wan't to believe Sutter's system and our player's can go long way this year.

I second this all the way through. Not sure why everyone is in love with Forbort right now. The WOWY numbers pretty clearly indicate that Forbort is riding Doughty's back. I would much rather keep McNabb than Forbort.

Dowd is also a good player, but he's not as valuable as McNabb, in my opinion. 5 on 5 Dowd's line is not keeping up. You can tell by the +/- or the goals for %. There's upside there, but he's not a guy the Kings are going to cry about losing.

I've made this case before, that people on this board underestimate McNabb and the quality minutes he produces.

If the Kings protect those eight players, I would guess Vegas would take Forbort or Dowd, but I would prefer they take Brown. Their team is going to be full of second/third line players and middling defensemen along with a pretty good goalie. Probably the smart play by McPhee is to take a guy like Trevor Lewis, who will slot into a particular role.