Confirmed with Link: Norris signs [8 years, 7.95M AAV]

[Sweatred]

yeah.... no.

That’s easy to say … but it comes down to who else you are losing at the time. You may have to give up prime years of Greig, Pinto, JBD and Chabot may get you the next EK deal (Norris, Stutzle etc).

 

[DrunkUncleDenis]

Yeah I think it's too high on both term and AAV.

BUT.

If you're gonna spend the 8 million per, I'd much rather it be on an elite scorer than fanned out across two or three plugs.

Talent retention is key for Ottawa. And the deal might look better when the cap rises. So I'm not going to get bent out of shape for 1 extra million per year. I'd rather one Josh Norris than two Connor Browns.

 

[BankStreetParade]

in the NHL right now 30 is the new 20 it feels like.

Year	0.37 g/gp (30G pace or better)	0.34 g/gp (28G pace or better)	0.23 g/gp (20G pace)	Total
2011-12	34	17	97	148
2017-18	47	16	86	149
2021-22	71	14	86	171​

Looks like scoring has been concentrating into the upper tiers of talent for a while now, which probably makes sense given modern coaching tactics, player utilization and maybe a slight drop in overall goaltending talent.

Although the information is pretty basic, to me it would suggest that if you have guys pacing at 30 goals or better per season, you sign them and figure out how the other dollars are allocated in your budget. Scoring depth might be easier to acquire given the amount of 20ish goal scorers has not dropped noticeably in the last 10 years. Might also explain why a guy like Connor Brown went cheap too. Although he is a premium defensive forward, scoring plays too significant a role to have strictly defensive forwards in his salary range.

 

[Mark Stones Spleen]

Why do people think Suzuki is better than Norris? He had one good playoff but Norris outperformed him this year and goalscorers are worth more than playmakers.

 

[Agent Zub]

Why do people think Suzuki is better than Norris? He had one good playoff but Norris outperformed him this year and goalscorers are worth more than playmakers.

personally i prefer playmakers to goal scorers.

and imo Suzuki elevates his linemates more than Norris.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I love that we are locking in our young stars for their prime years. So much smarter than the old path of bridge and then huge deal, or bridge and then walk to UFA.

Sens have net had this level of talent stability in a very long time, and folks don’t know how to deal with it.

One thing the Eugene years seem to have taught fans is how to nickle and dime players, and how to be overly worried about team finances.

Just relax, things are going according to plan right now, it feels good.

 

[Knave]

Why do people think Suzuki is better than Norris? He had one good playoff but Norris outperformed him this year and goalscorers are worth more than playmakers.

Here's my issue: scoring goals is difficult. Josh Norris knows how to score goals but not really help others score goals as much.

What does a down year look like for him? It could be ugly including for our playoff chances.

I don't know much about Suzuki. I don't watch Habs games but I would think he has more of a playmaking aspect to his game. And to top it off, Montreal was last in the league. I'm not sure we should be using their contracts as a measuring stick quite as much.

I'm not terrified of the contract. Every team has bad contracts and it seems like this team is willing to spend in the short term so if this turns out bad, we should be able to weather it. And maybe this gamble works out and I'm wrong. Norris develops his goalscoring and importantly his playmaking and he's worth it. But for me, it's a small sample size and he's only shown to be good at the one thing. If that falls off it's a massive contract to be holding on to. And when it comes to goalscorers, we've seen many hang around but we've seen many fall off too or have a bad year and crater their team's chances.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I love that we are locking in our young stars for their prime years. So much smarter than the old path of bridge and then huge deal, or bridge and then walk to UFA.

Sens have net had this level of talent stability in a very long time, and folks don’t know how to deal with it.

One thing the Eugene years seem to have taught fans is how to nickle and dime players, and how to be overly worried about team finances.

Just relax, things are going according to plan right now, it feels good.

It's interesting to see how much the conversation quickly shifts to dread about cap space.

We are in a much better spot no matter how you look at it and no team gets to keep everyone, it's the nature of a salary cap, and there's a constantly moving target for GM's to have to manage. And if there weren't a salary cap we'd lose even more and the league would go back to haves and have nots with ridiculous overpayments from NYR, TML, etc.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

To my eye Norris showed flashes of a next level last year (over and above wicked shot and ability to be in the right spot at the right time to pot the easy ones). Some impressive edgework and escapism O-zone possession in the face of pressure. I saw flashes of Marchand-ism. Can you imagine if he develops into something like BM but also has the ridiculous shot? 8 mill will be a bargain.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Yes, we can. We just have to continue drafting well enough to surround them with some ELCs.

Sens fans are wild. We've been at rock bottom for the last 5 years. But the young players we've drafted have finally developed, we're paying them, plus we're adding other stars, and people are freaking out that it might be expensive in 3-4 years?

Just enjoy the next few seasons. Maybe we have some fun playoff runs.

Whatever happens after, it won't be much worse than what we just went through. We can always trade him for picks and prospects in 5 years, hope that those prospects develop into top 6 scorers, and then complain that we gave them too much money and term when they do. I hear the class of 2027 is deep.

I'm happy, I just am not sure giving Norris long term now was the optimal play since it ties up a lot of money.

Giving all your core long term deals is doable but since we have been a small budget team that may mean our depth will suffer. It may work out, it may not but if I was GM I wouldn't want most of my core on parallel long term deals.

However I am well aware that this is business and you can't get all you want all the time. I'm happy we are making long term commitments to our core, I just am not sure Norris is a legit 1C; I still think he is a great player and he might keep improving. I am just not convinced he will.

 

[SixthSens]

A bit higher than I expected (7-7.5), but not going to fret over the difference. He’s improved every year and if he pots 40 a couple of times this will look great.

 

[dumbdick]

I'm kind of worried about the potential that we rushed some of our prospects into top roles too early and f***ed the budget in doing so. If we had a true 1C last year that pushed Norris into a 2c role with less pp time, how much lower would his contract value be right now? I think most of us expect Jimmy to push him into that role as soon as this fall.

Same logic holds for Brady's contract. We signed them as 1st line players on a shallow roster but now we're adding and they're already getting demoted to the 2nd line.

Pinto/Forms/Joseph are the opposite where they will get buried on the third line and eventually sign cheaper deals as a result. I wish we could have put all our prospects through that process of paying dues and getting cheaper RFA deals. In other words, I think we should have installed more of a door for them to kick down.

For better or worse now, these are the guys.

 

[Tap on the Ankle]

I'm kind of worried about the potential that we rushed some of our prospects into top roles too early and f***ed the budget in doing so. If we had a true 1C last year that pushed Norris into a 2c role with less pp time, how much lower would his contract value be right now? I think most of us expect Jimmy to push him into that role as soon as this fall.

Same logic holds for Brady's contract. We signed them as 1st line players on a shallow roster but now we're adding and they're already getting demoted to the 2nd line.

Pinto/Forms/Joseph are the opposite where they will get buried on the third line and eventually sign cheaper deals as a result. I wish we could have put all our prospects through that process of paying dues and getting cheaper RFA deals. In other words, I think we should have installed more of a door for them to kick down.

For better or worse now, these are the guys.

I think this was sort of tried with Stepan and Dadonov but pro scouting failed us and they bombed.

 

[playasRus]

1M overpayment has to be countered with 1M underpayment, and right now the number of overpaid guys>underpaid guys. That's the main fear so that we lose guys to CPA casualties before even making noise in the playoffs.

Overpaid by 1-2M:
Tkachuk
Norris
Chabot (I know the market but his cap hit should really be closer to 7-7.5M)

Underpaid by 1.5M:
Batherson

And now we're predicting to overpay Stutzle by 1-2M - let's face it he should be a 6M guy for the next 2-3 years and then maybe 9M after for an AAV closer to 7.5M over 8 years than 9M.

Predicting similar projection is short to long term contracts for Pinto/Sanderson...
Need to get Forms on a cheap 3-4 year bridge now or 5-6 year and sell high in 3-4 years just before we need cap space.

Many would consider Macavoy superior to Chabot and so co me paring his bridge for instance was 4.9 X 3, then 9.5 x 8 which averages to about 7.75 over the first 8 years. I don't think Chabot would have commanded the same 9.5M as MacAvoy after a 3 year bridge but I may be too conservative.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

I like this investment. Norris is just entering his prime. He seems like a hard working character guy; the type that's hungry to get even better and the type that doesn't get injured too much. He doesn't strike me as a guy who skips his training too often.

The opposite of this is giving 8 years at MAX dollars to Erik Karlsson whose best days were behind him.

 

[inthewings]

Team cap hit sitting at around 76M now. Going to be very interesting to see how they handle Zub, Stutzle, and Debrincat over the next year. Dorion has his work cut out for him.

 

[DylanSensFan]

$5 million n 2022-23, $6.5 million in 2023-24, $9.5 million in 2024-25, $9.5 million in 2025-26, $9.5 million in 2026-27, $8.75 million in 2027-28, $7.85 million in 2028-29 and $7 million in the final year, 2029-30

So, middle heavy.

 

[JaredCowen4Norris]

I love that we are locking in our young stars for their prime years. So much smarter than the old path of bridge and then huge deal, or bridge and then walk to UFA.

Sens have net had this level of talent stability in a very long time, and folks don’t know how to deal with it.

One thing the Eugene years seem to have taught fans is how to nickle and dime players, and how to be overly worried about team finances.

Just relax, things are going according to plan right now, it feels good.

You know times are good when I find myself agreeing with you Ice-Tray

This contract really isn't the end of the world. Even if he ends up getting passed by someone like Pinto/Grieg, we'll be able to trade him with term and get a much better return then if we were forced to trade him as a rental when his next contract is due.

Spending too much money is a problem we wouldn't have even thought possible even a few months ago. Have to bask in that glory instead of worrying.

 

[DueDiligence]

personally i prefer playmakers to goal scorers.

and imo Suzuki elevates his linemates more than Norris.

That's like saying you rather sell more popcorn and beer than put bums in the seats. the bums in the seats are what makes or breaks a team. Playmaking is pretty to watch but it means nothing without a goal being scored.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

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[Knave]

That's like saying you rather sell more popcorn and beer than put bums in the seats. the bums in the seats are what makes or breaks a team. Playmaking is pretty to watch but it means nothing without a goal being scored.

Most top tier players are good at both goalscoring and playmaking so a bad year in goal scoring is softened by making opportunities for others.

Like I said, I'm not too worried, I'm not here to argue underpayment or overpayment. The contract is a gamble in my opinion given what I've watched and I hope it works out. This could turn into a great deal for Ottawa for all I know.

I'm happy he's happy and wants to be here. I was told no one wants to be in Ottawa.

 

[Wallet Inspector]

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You call tell Norris loves being an Ottawa Senator.

 

[Sting]

Still see a lot of untapped development in Norris. There were moments where I thought he looked like a superstar last year with his stickhandling and skating.

If he continues to improve this cap hit will look like norhing.

Like others though, I worry about retaining Stutzle and Debrincat. I feel like Cat is most likely going to test UFA in 2 years.

 

[Masked]

Like others though, I worry about retaining Stutzle and Debrincat. I feel like Cat is most likely going to test UFA in 2 years.

See how this off-season plays out but if Matthew Tkachuk hits UFA next summer, maybe you lock him up long term and deal DeBrincat. Or maybe you just deal DeBrincat for Matthew this summer if Matthew will sign long term.

Assen na yo!